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When it comes to picking out NFL tight ends for fantasy purposes, it does not take much to figure out who the top candidates are this season. If you are looking for some late value picks, however, you have come to the right place. What I want to find for all of us here are tight ends that should be getting several targets a game. With five or more balls headed their way each week, they should be able to haul in at least three on average and have a shot at 40-50 yards a week and possibly a touchdown. That may not sound like much, but that works out to be 48 catches and 640-800 yards a year, which would put any TE right near the Top 12 last season (provided he scored a few times). Not bad at all.
So what's the plan? I have looked at several different ways to pick up some valuable tight ends later in fantasy drafts before, but this time I am going to get a bit more scientific. Here I will take a look at an overall ADP list and pick out three different types of teams. Oddly enough, I care more about the wide receivers on a given team than about the tight ends. The reasoning is pretty simple - if the quarterback on a given team has limited options, the ball has to go somewhere. What better option than a big guy over the middle?
I broke the 32 NFL teams down and kept the ones that fit into three basic categories:
- Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
- Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 30 ADP List
- Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30
Here are the results:
CATEGORY 1 - TEAMS WITH NO WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST
This may be surprising to some, but there are usually a few teams each year with absolutely terrible wide receiver options. This season has two, one due to a probable suspension and another that has a bunch of uncertainty lining up outside the numbers. Cleveland had the best fantasy wide receiver last year in Josh Gordon, but he is expected to be out several games and possibly the entire season. If that happens, Jordan Cameron will be the top target for the Browns and becomes a huge value - but that is already priced in with his fourth round ADP. Remember, we are looking for some bargains. As for the Raiders, their tight end situation is a mess and offers no fantasy value. While the wideouts have ADPs all outside of the Top 50, Oakland does have intriguing depth at the position with James Jones, Rod Streater, Denarius Moore and sleeper Andre Holmes.
Bottom line from Category 1: Cameron will be long gone by Round 5, and Oakland is a tight end wasteland right now. Nothing to see here – move along.
CATEGORY 2 - TEAMS WITH ONLY 1 WR IN THE TOP 30 ADP LIST
This group of teams is pretty large (17 NFL teams), but some of them are easily scratched off because either (A) their starting tight end is a top option (Top 10 ADP) or because (B) their TE has an ADP lower than Death Valley. Quickly looking over the list, we have to dismiss the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski, San Francisco's Vernon Davis, Minnesota's Kyle Rudolph, Baltimore's Dennis Pitta and Dallas' Jason Witten as five "Type A" tight ends. With that said, let's transfer our gaze to "Type B". That leaves five teams to go over, so let's hit it:
- Tampa Bay and the New York Giants – The Giants and Buccaneers do not have a clear depth chart (or much talent) at tight end. Skip both.
- Philadelphia – The Eagles cut ties with DeSean Jackson and need someone to step up and replace his catches for Nick Foles. Everything this offseason has been screaming a breakout year for sophomore Zach Ertz. Ertz is supposed to be on the field much more often and a key target in the Red Zone. He makes for a solid pick, but he is likely to not last beyond the Top 12 tight end picks, making him unlikely to make it past Round 10.
- Detroit – The Lions are all about Calvin Johnson first and foremost in the passing game, and if I was Matthew Stafford, I would look early and often towards him every game too. Golden Tate is the second target now in the offense, and the tight end position looks to be split between veteran Brandon Pettigrew and rookie Eric Ebron, who was a first round pick this year. Rookies often struggle to adapt and adjust to their first year, so tread lightly with Ebron. It may take him a year to break out (like the plan with Ertz).
- Seattle – The Seahawks are a run first, play defense second, throw if we have to team, which does not lend too much value to receivers or tight ends. Both Zach Miller and Luke Willson have ADPs beyond 240, and rightly so. Look elsewhere for sleepers.
- Miami – One of these days, Ryan Tannehill is going to break out, right? Well, Charles Clay practically did break out last year, and he could easily be the second target to Mike Wallace in the Miami passing game this year. Brian Hartline is a pedestrian WR2 while Clay can get open and score touchdowns, which is what Miami and fantasy owners want. Clay is available until about Round 11, which is a great place to pick up a player projected for 50+ catches and 5-6 scores this season.
- Pittsburgh – How does Heath Miller make this list every year? If you know the Steelers and fantasy football, you know that Miller is a lunch pail tight end who just gets the job done. He is a top TE2 with TE1 upside and a solid choice around Round 14.
- Houston – The Texans have a rough passing game because of a feeble starting quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick) and just Andre Johnson as a real stud of a target. DeAndre Hopkins has yet to step up as a WR2, which opens up targets for both running backs and tight ends. Garrett Graham should be featured by new head coach Bill O'Brien, making Graham a solid sleeper in Round 16.
- Cincinnati – The old saying goes that if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none – but that does not apply to tight ends. The Bengals drafted Tyler Eifert in Round 1 (21st overall) last year and they have been running him as the starter all preseason, as expected. Eifert has to split some time with veteran Jermaine Gresham while Andy Dalton spreads the ball around to A.J. Green, two tight ends and also his two running backs (Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill), so the upside for Eifert may be limited. The price for Eifert is cheap though (Round 15), so I like the gamble on him.
- San Diego – Two tight ends split the workload again here, much like in Cincinnati. Veteran Antonio Gates tries to hold on to his top spot while young stud Ladarius Green puts the pressure on with solid preseason practices. If I had to pick one, I would choose the upside in Green as my TE2 with a cheap ADP of Round 11, but for that price I would rather have Miami's Clay.
- Indianapolis – Two tight ends once again, anyone? Andrew Luck loves to play in two tight end sets, and that is what he gets again this year with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Allen is considered the better option, and his Round 14 ADP reflects that (Fleener is in Round 18). Both are viable options, but I would like either one better if there was just one true receiving tight end in Indianapolis.
- Tennessee – Finally a team with just one true tight end to discuss. The Titans offer up Delanie Walker as the starter here, and Tennessee is not a sexy team, making most of their receivers good values. Walker finished as TE12 last year, a nice pickup in Round 14 of a draft this year.
Bottom line from Category 2: Target Zach Ertz, Charles Clay, Delanie Walker and Garrett Graham, in that order.
CATEGORY 3 - TEAMS WITH 1-2 WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST BUT NONE IN THE TOP 30
This group of teams is usually much smaller than Category 2, but several NFL WR1s are just sitting outside the Top 30 this season, which increases this category to six teams. Buffalo (Sammy Watkins), the Jets (Eric Decker), Jacksonville (Cecil Shorts), St. Louis (Tavon Austin), Kansas City (Dwayne Bowe) and Carolina (Kelvin Benjamin) have just one receiver on the list. Carolina (Greg Olsen) has a stud tight end, so the Panthers are not worth discussing here. Buffalo and the Jets both have murky passing games and tight ends well off of the ADP list, so we will omit those teams as well. That leaves three teams that have good talent at the tight end position, so let’s take a quick spin around this group:
- St. Louis – The Rams need to get some receivers to step up, and Jared Cook could be on that list. Sam Bradford is in a make or break year, and Cook posted a respectable stat line (51-671-5) last season. Cook is available often in Round 15 and is worth a late round pick.
- Kansas City - While the Chiefs claim that Anthony Fasano is the starter, the clear receiver in the group is Travis Kelce, who is a bona fide sleeper this season. Kansas City has little to offer in the way of receivers after Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles out of the backfield, and Alex Smith loves short passes. That is right up Kelce's alley, and his ADP of 226 makes him a fantastic late round flier.
- Jacksonville - The Jaguars could easily have been included in the “murky passing game” list above, but Marcedes Lewis is worth mentioning here. Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch wants to get Lewis more involved in the passing game this year, and there is certainly room for him to emerge as a target like he did back in 2010 when Lewis scored 10 touchdowns. Even with this news, it is hard to see Lewis having too much draft value, but he is worth a late round pick if Travis Kelce is gone.
Bottom line from Category 3: Jared Cook is a solid option as is Marcedes Lewis, but the biggest upside is probably Travis Kelce.
If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good second (or third) option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here. Values exist at TE outside of the Top 10-12 names that are going to go in the first half of your fantasy drafts, so do not overlook the later guys who can help your team get those extra points and win a few more games this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.