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When it comes to picking out NFL tight ends for fantasy purposes, it does not take much to figure out who the top candidates are this season. If you are looking for some late value picks, however, you have come to the right place. What I want to find for all of us here are tight ends that should be getting several targets a game. With five or more balls headed their way each week, they should be able to haul in at least three on average and have a shot at 40-50 yards a week and possibly a touchdown. That may not sound like much, but that works out to be 48 catches and 640-800 yards a year, which would put any TE right near the Top 12 last season (provided he scored a few times). Not bad at all.
So what's the plan? I have looked at several different ways to pick up some valuable tight ends later in fantasy drafts before, but this time I am going to get a bit more scientific. Here I will take a look at an overall ADP list and pick out three different types of teams. Oddly enough, I care more about the wide receivers on a given team than about the tight ends. The reasoning is pretty simple - if the quarterback on a given team has limited options, the ball has to go somewhere. What better option than a big guy over the middle?
I broke the 32 NFL teams down and kept the ones that fit into three basic categories:
- Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
- Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 30 ADP List
- Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30
Here are the results:
Category 1 - Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
This may be surprising to some, but there are usually a few teams each year with absolutely terrible wide receiver options. This season has just one, and no one will be surprised to hear that it is the New York Jets. Not only do they not have any wide receiver in the Top 50, but the first wideout on the list (Santonio Holmes, WR64) is not even practicing yet. Basically the Jets have no one that anyone wants to draft very early at flanker or split end. Despite that, NFL teams never seem to run the ball on every down, so someone has to make a catch now and then. That often means that the tight ends on these types of teams are worth a look – but New York really does look that bad across the board. Kellen Winslow or Jeff Cumberland? No thanks. Skip all Jets.
Bottom line from Category 1: Skip the Jets. Nothing to see here – move along.
Category 2 - Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 30 ADP List
This group of teams is pretty large (nine NFL teams), but some of them are easily scratched off because either (A) their starting tight end is a top option or because (B) their TE has an ADP lower than Death Valley. Quickly looking over the list, we have to dismiss Carolina’s Greg Olsen as a "Type A" tight end, but it is borderline and he should be considered as a great later pick. With that said, let's transfer our gaze to "Type B". That leaves eight teams to go over, so let's hit it:
- Baltimore – The Ravens lost Anquan Boldin in the offseason when he was traded to San Francisco, so they have only Torrey Smith as a stable target. Baltimore was supposed to use Dennis Pitta as their main tight end, but an early preseason injury ruined that plan. Now Ed Dickson is their top guy, but it remains to be seen if he will be ready for Week 1, and to further muddy the waters, Baltimore added free agent Dallas Clark. Bottom line – don’t draft any Ravens tight ends at this point.
- Kansas City – The Chiefs have three options at tight end, starting with veteran Tony Moaeki, who is back from an injury that ruined last year’s efforts. Anthony Fasano is a veteran they added during free agency, but the name to watch is rookie Travis Kelce. New head coach Andy Reid loves to throw, and Kelce could be his “move TE” and a big part of the new passing game for the Chiefs.
- Miami – Dustin Keller was supposed to be the main tight end for the Dolphins, and Miami expected a strong season from the former Jet who signed a one-year deal to “prove it” and be in a position to sign a big free agent deal next year. All that went away after Keller suffered a catastrophic hit to his right knee in the preseason. Charles Clay, Dion Sims, and Michael Egnew will try to replace Keller at tight end, but none of them have much fantasy value at this time.
- New England – Everyone has been wondering when Rob Gronkowski will come back to the team, but with him out an undrafted free agent has really stepped up in his wake. Zach Sudfeld (Nevada) has been running with the first team for quite a while now, and he just caught two touchdowns against Tampa Bay in the preseason. He is a bona fide sleeper and worth a late round pick, especially in a Tom Brady-led New England passing game.
- Philadelphia – It still remains to be seen how the Eagles are going to use their three tight end options this season under new head coach Chip Kelly, but it seems like rookie Zach Ertz will be the “move tight end” and see more targets, but veteran Brent Celek will be on the field most of the time and offer some second or third options in the passing progressions. Until one of them emerges as a target magnet, skip both of them – and third string James Casey as well.
- Washington – The Redskins do not have too many weapons in the passing game after Pierre Garcon, so it makes sense that a tight end could emerge as a go-to player for Robert Griffin III. Last year, Fred Davis was on pace for 54 catches and 742 yards before he tore his Achilles’ in Week 7. Davis has returned to full strength and has looked good so far in the preseason, so he makes for a great tight end sleeper to target.
- Cincinnati – The old saying goes that if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none – but that does not apply to tight ends. The Bengals drafted Tyler Eifert in Round 1 (21st overall) and they have been incorporating him quite a bit in their passing game. With A.J. Green, the best receiver on the team by far, sidelined and resting in the preseason, Eifert has seen a ton of targets from QB Andy Dalton. Jermaine Gresham is still a viable receiver as well, but the veteran tight end is giving way to Eifert for most of the targets. If you want to target one Bengal tight end, go after Eifert.
Bottom line from Category 2: Target Zach Sudfeld, Fred Davis, Tyler Eifert and consider Travis Kelce.
Category 3 - Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30
This group of teams is usually much smaller than Category 2, but several NFL WR1s are just sitting outside the Top 30 this season, which increases this category to a remarkable nine teams. San Francisco (Anquan Boldin), Minnesota (Greg Jennings), San Diego (Vincent Brown), Buffalo (Steve Johnson), Cleveland (Josh Gordon) and Oakland (Denarius Moore) have just one receiver on the list, while Jacksonville, Seattle and Tennessee have two wideouts that just crack the Top 50. Minnesota (Kyle Rudolph) and San Francisco (Vernon Davis) have stud tight ends, so they are not worth discussion. Antonio Gates of the Chargers is in the conversation as Gates has recently fallen out of favor – so he warrants some consideration at TE10 on the ADP list. Buffalo, Tennessee, Oakland and Seattle all have murky passing games and tight ends well off of the ADP list, so we will omit those teams as well. That leaves two teams that have good talent at the tight end position, so let’s take a quick spin around this group:
- Cleveland – The Browns bright in new head coach Rob Chudzinski, who just loves to feature tight ends, as does new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Both have had success with Greg Olsen and Antonio Gates, respectively, and they fully intend to use their big , athletic tight end this year in Cleveland. Jordan Cameron will be featured early and often in the passing game (and he scored two preseason touchdowns recently against the Lions). Cameron will be one of the tight end sleepers that will be getting a lot of attention this August, and is likely to be moving up quickly on many fantasy draft boards.
- Jacksonville - The Jaguars could easily have been included in the “murky passing game” list above, but Marcedes Lewis is worth mentioning here. Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch wants to get Lewis more involved in the passing game this year, and there is certainly room for him to emerge as a target like he did back in 2010 when Lewis scored 10 touchdowns. Even with this news, it is hard to see Lewis having too much draft value.
Bottom line from Category 3: Jordan Cameron, Jordan Cameron and Jordan Cameron. Did I mention Cameron?
If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good second (or third) option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here. Values exist at TE outside of the Top 10-12 names that are going to go in the first half of your fantasy drafts, so do not overlook the later guys who can help your team get those extra points and win a few more games this year.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.