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There are all kinds of games that you can play with football as the backdrop. Fantasy football is the King of the Hill, but it is not the only game in town. Office pools are all over the place with varying formats -- picking every game winner either against the spread or by ranking each game on a point scale (also known as a confidence pool). Another favorite game that is not quite as common but that has been around for quite a while is the Eliminator or Survivor pool.
The reality television show "Survivor" has been on 30+ seasons (believe it or not, the anniversary of the first Survivor season finale just passed, on August 23rd - way back in 2000), and the premise has been the same since the beginning -- Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. The concept is pretty simple, and has been around for ages -- last man (or woman) standing wins. That is the idea behind Eliminator or Survivor pools -- everyone is on the same footing when the season starts, and all you have to do is to pick one team to win their game that given week. If you are right, you move on to the next week, but if they lose -- you are eliminated from the pool. The other trick is that once you pick a given team, you cannot use them again the rest of the way, making it progressively harder to find that winning team each week.
Variations on this theme do exist, including pools where you can "buy back in" after one misstep and also the inverted method where you have to pick a team that will lose that week instead of win. All of them are valid ways to play, but for simplicity I am going to focus on the simplest version here -- win or go home every week. Also for ease of description, I will simply call this contest a Survivor pool.
Earlier this year, I wrote an article on these types of leagues (Survivor Pool Strategy), and back then I promised readers that I would follow up that article with a “Master Plan” prior to Week 1 for this coming NFL regular season. This is that article. It would be a good idea to refresh your minds as to the “Rules of Engagement” I have learned over the years when it comes to playing in these types of contests, and I will refer back to those rules when I outline this plan.
THE PRESEASON MASTER PLAN
As I mentioned earlier, I have learned a lot of lessons on what to do (and what not to do) when it comes to being competitive in Survivor pools. Having played in these types of contests for nearly two decades, I have come up with a number of rules that I try to adhere to when it comes to developing my plan to be both competitive and keep my entry alive in these contests, year after year. That was the main subject for the first part of this series, but now it is time to apply some of those rules to develop my first take at a Master Plan. Keep in mind, all good plans have some wiggle room and ability to change, so nothing is set in stone – but if I was forced to pick 17 winners in a row before the league kicks off after Labor Day, this would be my best attempt. Here we go:
Applying the first rule:
First rule of Survivor pools -- pick good teams. Yes, this is the kind of deep analysis you can expect from this article. Seriously though, this sounds simple, but it is important to start with your list of teams that you want to use this season. I tend to start by looking at the teams that made it to the playoffs from the year before and also any team that had at least nine wins a year ago.
OK – Starting with good teams, I picked out the teams with at least eight wins last year. That led me to the following teams:
AFC – New England (12), Buffalo (9), Miami (8), Pittsburgh (11), Cincinnati (10.5), Baltimore (10), Indianapolis (11), Houston (9), Denver (12), Kansas City (9) and San Diego (9)
NFC – Dallas (12), Philadelphia (10), Green Bay (12), Detroit (10), Seattle (12), Arizona (11) and San Francisco (8)
That list gives me 11 AFC teams and seven NFC teams – 18 in all – which is a pretty solid start to figuring out my Survivor Plan.
Now let’s look at Rule #2:
Find bad teams -- Similar concept to the first rule, but this is actually a bit harder. Teams that are terrible last year often make major changes because they have to and possibly because they changed over coaches, personnel or both. If you can predict the 3-5 worst teams for the coming year, though, you will be well on your way to winning your Survivor pool.
Well, I believe that the three worst teams for 2015 will be the Jaguars, Bills, Titans and Jets. Those are the teams I want to check out first each week of the schedule. I was a little hesitant about Buffalo as I think that they are improving, but these four teams certainly have starting quarterback issues, which is a great starting criteria for finding bad teams. I have two additional tiers of likely bad teams, starting with four more that could struggle - Oakland, Houston, Carolina and St. Louis. The Panthers are included because I do not like their offense much without Kelvin Benjamin much. Matchups will dictate which teams to target, but when in doubt I will look to these teams (and their opponents) for a win.
And then, Rule #3:
Start planning the entire season, almost. I like to look at the season in six stages, breaking up the NFL regular season into 3-game groups from Week 1 onward. That makes for five groups (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 and 13-15) plus the last two weeks of the year. I leave Weeks 16 and 17 in isolation for two reasons. First, I hope that the contest I am playing is over by then, and I don't have to worry about those weeks. Second, those two weeks are now riddled with divisional matchups, which make them very hard to pick. I know going in to that phase of the regular season that I will have to be making difficult selections, and I will leave those for the end game of the contest. If I think that the contest will last to Week 16 or 17, I will start planning for that eventuality around Week 13 or 14.
My plan here is to script out the first 15 games, and then play it by ear for the last two weeks when the NFL Schedule is riddled with divisional games. By then I hope that (A) the contest might be over, (B) the good teams (and bad teams) will present themselves quickly, and (C) I will still be alive and kicking with just two games to go.
Here are the games I liked at first for planning out my strategy, focusing solely on the 17 teams I liked:
Dallas – The Cowboys lost their top running back option to free agency, so I do not know how they will manage without DeMarco Murray. Dallas still has plenty of talent, but I am not planning on them to be a dominant team. I have a few problems with Dallas right in that the only game I truly like is way out in Week 15 (vs. the Jets). Now, Las Vegas usually gets things right (more often than not) and the Cowboys are the biggest favorite in Week 1 (home against the Giants). I tend to agree that this is almost a must win game for Dallas - home against a divisional rival with a trip to Philadelphia in Week 2 looming. Dallas must win that game.
Philadelphia – Chip Kelly finds a way to get to 10 wins, and I think he does it again this year. Two games I like are in Week 11 (vs. Tampa Bay) and Week 14 (vs. Buffalo).
Green Bay – The Packers are on a mission to get to the Super Bowl, and they have to get out to a good start this year. Week 3 looks like a great option with hosting Kansas City at home on Monday Night Football, as does Week 2's contest at Lambeau against the 49ers. Weeks 5 and 6 are also solid options (hosting St. Louis and San Diego), but the weather might be too good for all these road teams. So much for home field advantage.
Detroit – The Lions have a very rough schedule, so I might avoid them entirely. Only Week 11 (vs. Oakland) catches my eye, and I am pretty sure I will have a better option for that week.
Seattle – Seattle at home is usually a very good idea, and I like Week 6 (Carolina) and Week 15 (Cleveland) I might pick either one, and let other teams' best picks decide which one to go with here.
San Francisco – The 49ers are not the same team as last year. I am avoiding them until I see if they are any good - and even then I probably won't pick them unless Las Vegas tells me that they are heavy favorites.
Arizona – The Cardinals are a tough call this year. They won 11 games last season, but can you say with any confidence that they can do it again, and for which contests? Only Week 14 (home vs. Minnesota) is on my radar right now.
New England – Week 3 hosting Jacksonville jumps off the page, but will Brady be playing? Considering that the Jets are now without Rex Ryan, that might be a matchup to target in Week 7 - but remember my warning about divisional games. I like the third home game in a row against Washington in Week 9, or Week 15 hosting Tennessee.
Buffalo – Yes, they won a lot of games last year, but I am not trusting them in 2015. Next.
Miami – The Dolphins are a solid sleeper this season, and they have talent on offense and defense. Double-digit wins are possible in Miami. Two road games to start the year (at Washington, at Jacksonville) are possible picks, since Week 1 is so tough. Week 6 is another game after a bye against the Titans, but Miami is on the road. The next game, hosting Houston, is really looking good as it is the only home game between Weeks 5 and 9 for the Dolphins. They will need that victory and will be favored to get it.
Pittsburgh – I am very worried about the Steeler defense this year. The Steel Curtain may be more of a Dull Drape this season, but the offense can put up a lot of points. We need a home game against a bad offense here, and try not to use Cleveland as much as we are tempted to do so (divisional game). Week 9 the Steelers host the Raiders, so that could be the one to take if you want to use Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati – I struggle with the Bengals, not just in finding a game to choose but also in my belief that they will be a rock-solid pick this year. Maybe Week 10's matchup at home against Houston on Monday Night Football or Week 12's hosting of St. Louis, but not much else.
Baltimore – The Ravens have the feel of a team that is being undervalued this season. That's OK by me. I like them to win 10 or more games this year and compete for the division. Games I really like for them are Week 2 (at Oakland), Week 8 (vs. San Diego) and Weeks 10 and 11 at home (Jacksonville, St. Louis).
Indianapolis – The Colts are going to push for the Super Bowl this year, and to do that they have to take care of business. I am going to avoid Jacksonville matchups because that divisional rival gets up for the Colts and plays them tough. I still need a Week 2 option, and the Colts are hosting the Jets on Monday Night Football. Sounds like a win to me. Week 12 (home vs. Tampa Bay) also looks good, but you have to win in Week 2 to get to Week 12, so I am penciling in Indianapolis for Week 2.
Houston – Houston, I think we have a problem - or lots of them. They are called "starting quarterback" and "Arian Foster". Next.
Denver – Another tough schedule year for a good team, which happens in the AFC West far more often than not. The Broncos host Minnesota in Week 4 and also have a home Sunday Night Football in Week 8 after their bye - but it is against Green Bay. Ouch. Not sure I can find a game I like for Denver.
Kansas City – The Chiefs are another team that is tough to figure out. Could they be good? Sure, but it is the rough AFC West. Kansas City can be a tough place to play, and that is why I am looking at Weeks 7 (Pittsburgh), 12 (Buffalo) and 16 (Cleveland). .
San Diego – Week 4 hosting Cleveland is the top of the list for the Chargers, who also have a rough AFC West schedule. Week 5 vs. Pittsburgh is an option, as is Week 12 in Jacksonville.
With 17 teams and some choice games selected, let’s see how this looks as far as a weekly plan:
Week 1 – Dallas (vs. New York Giants), Miami (at Washington)
Week 2 – Indianapolis (vs. the Jets), Miami (at Jacksonville), Baltimore (at Oakland), Green Bay (vs. San Francisco)
Week 3 – Green Bay (vs. Kansas City), New England (vs. Jacksonville)
*Week 4 – San Diego (vs. Cleveland), Denver (vs. Minnesota)
Week 5 – San Diego (vs. Pittsburgh), Green Bay (vs. St Louis)
Week 6 – Seattle (vs. Carolina), Miami (at Tennessee), Green Bay (vs. San Diego)
Week 7 – Miami (vs. Houston), Kansas City (vs. Pittsburgh), New England (vs. the Jets)
Week 8 – Baltimore (vs. San Diego), Denver (vs. Green Bay)
Week 9 – Pittsburgh (vs. Oakland), New England (vs. Washington)
Week 10 – Cincinnati (vs. Houston), Baltimore (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 11 – Philadelphia (vs. Tampa Bay), Kansas City (vs. Buffalo), Baltimore (vs. St. Louis), Detroit (vs. Oakland)
Week 12 – Kansas City (vs. Buffalo), San Diego (at Jacksonville), Indianapolis (vs. Tampa Bay), Cincinnati (vs. St. Louis)
***Week 13 – ???
Week 14 – Arizona (vs. Minnesota), Philadelphia (vs. Buffalo)
Week 15 – New England (vs. Tennessee), Seattle (vs. Cleveland)
Okay, this is getting there, but this is still a little incomplete. We have most of the weeks covered, but I think I need to look at the schedules for our "bad" teams and try and get some help here.
I'll add a team back in the mix right now to try and help us some:
*Chicago – The Bears are already banged up, but I do not think that they know that they are not that good just yet. My advice - use the Bears in September and get them out of the way before they implode. Chicago hosts Oakland in Week 4 - you are welcome.
Note that the first team listed is now my "plan". I am locked in with the Cowboys, Colts and Packers in Weeks 1-3, and then stick to the plan of using as many good teams as possible. The 2015 plan was harder since I don't believe in a few playoff teams from last year like Carolina and Detroit, so I had to dig a little deeper to find 15 teams that i like. That still leaves me with a gaping hole for Week 13, for which I have several options. So here is the Week 13 plan:
Week 13 options: Tennessee (home vs. Jacksonville), New Orleans (home vs. Carolina), New York Giants (home vs. the Jets).
Yes, I am jumping for joy as well. Believe me, I am looking for better options and trying to re-shuffle my plan to fix this, but it looks pretty bad for this week. Buffalo also hosts Houston (yippee!) but I cannot get behind most of these games. With some luck a team will be decimated by injuries and make this week an easier pick - but if I had to pick one right now, it would be the Giants over the Jets.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Survivor pools are a lot of fun, and it makes for a great contest to keep you interested in the NFL for most -- if not all -- of the regular season. Finding a contest like this and potentially winning the prize is a great way to enjoy the sport we all love in yet another way, so go ahead and play in one this year. With any luck, proper planning and the advice you read here will get you a long way towards winning that pool.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.