There are all kinds of games that you can play with football as the backdrop. Fantasy football is the King of the Hill, but it is not the only game in town. Office pools are all over the place with varying formats -- picking every game winner either against the spread or by ranking each game on a point scale (also known as a confidence pool). Another favorite game that is not quite as common but that has been around for quite a while is the Eliminator or Survivor pool.
The reality television show "Survivor" has been on 26 seasons, and the premise has been the same since the beginning -- Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. The concept is pretty simple, and has been around for ages -- last man (or woman) standing wins. That is the idea behind Eliminator or Survivor pools -- everyone is on the same footing when the season starts, and all you have to do is to pick one team to win their game that given week. If you are right, you move on to the next week, but if they lose -- you are eliminated from the pool. The other trick is that once you pick a given team, you cannot use them again the rest of the way, making it progressively harder to find that winning team each week.
Variations on this theme do exist, including pools where you can "buy back in" after one misstep and also the inverted method where you have to pick a team that will lose that week instead of win. All of them are valid ways to play, but for simplicity I am going to focus on the simplest version here -- win or go home every week. Also for ease of description, I will simply call this contest a Survivor pool.
Earlier this year, I wrote an article on these types of leagues (Survivor Pool Strategy), and back then I promised readers that I would follow up that article with a “Master Plan” prior to Week 1 for this coming NFL regular season. This is that article. It would be a good idea to refresh your minds as to the “Rules of Engagement” I have learned over the years when it comes to playing in these types of contests, and I will refer back to those rules when I outline this plan.
THE PRE-SEASON MASTER PLAN
As I mentioned earlier, I have learned a lot of lessons on what to do (and what not to do) when it comes to being competitive in Survivor pools. Having played in these types of contests for nearly two decades, I have come up with a number of rules that I try to adhere to when it comes to developing my plan to be both competitive and keep my entry alive in these contests, year after year. That was the main subject for the first part of this series, but now it is time to apply some of those rules to develop my first take at a Master Plan. Keep in mind, all good plans have some wiggle room and ability to change, so nothing is set in stone – but if I was forced to pick 17 winners in a row before the league kicks off after Labor Day, this would be my best attempt. Here we go:
Applying the first rule:
First rule of Survivor pools -- pick good teams. Yes, this is the kind of deep analysis you can expect from this article. Seriously though, this sounds simple, but it is important to start with your list of teams that you want to use this season. I tend to start by looking at the teams that made it to the playoffs from the year before and also any team that had at least nine wins a year ago.
OK – Starting with good teams, I picked out the teams with at least eight wins last year. That led me to the following teams:
AFC – New England (12), Baltimore (10), Cincinnati (10), Houston (12), Indianapolis (11), Denver (13)
NFC – Washington (10), New York Giants (9), Dallas (8), Green Bay (11), Minnesota (10), Chicago (10), Atlanta (13), San Francisco (12.5) and Seattle (11)
That list gives me six AFC teams and nine NFC teams – 15 in all – which is a pretty solid start to figuring out my Survivor Plan.
Now let’s look at Rule #2:
Find bad teams -- Similar concept to the first rule, but this is actually a bit harder. Teams that are terrible last year often make major changes because they have to and possibly because they changed over coaches, personnel or both. If you can predict the 3-5 worst teams for the coming year, though, you will be well on your way to winning your Survivor pool.
Well, I believe that the four worst teams for 2013 will be the Jets, Jaguars, Raiders and Chargers. Those are four teams I want to check out first each week of the schedule. I would add in Buffalo as well given the quarterback uncertainty. The Chargers are last of these five because they have the best quarterback by far of these five teams, and a big game by Philip Rivers could torpedo your plans. For similar reasons, I am also straying away from Arizona (Carson Palmer). Most of the games I will target for my Survivor plan will be against the Jets, Jaguars, Raiders and Bills. Further, any game I choose that is not against one of these four teams, I will take a hard look at the starting quarterback for the team I am picking against.
And then, Rule #3:
Start planning the entire season, almost. I like to look at the season in six stages, breaking up the NFL regular season into 3-game groups from Week 1 onward. That makes for five groups (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 and 13-15) plus the last two weeks of the year. I leave Weeks 16 and 17 in isolation for two reasons. First, I hope that the contest I am playing is over by then, and I don't have to worry about those weeks. Second, those two weeks are now riddled with divisional matchups, which make them very hard to pick. I know going in to that phase of the regular season that I will have to be making difficult selections, and I will leave those for the end game of the contest. If I think that the contest will last to Week 16 or 17, I will start planning for that eventuality around Week 13 or 14.
My plan here is to script out the first 15 games, and then play it by ear for the last two weeks when the NFL Schedule is riddled with divisional games. By then I hope that (A) the contest might be over, (B) the good teams (and bad teams) will present themselves quickly, and (C) I will still be alive and kicking with just two games to go.
Here are the games I liked at first for planning out my strategy, focusing solely on the 15 winning teams I liked:
Washington – Week 4 (at Oakland), Week 9 (hosting San Diego), and Week 14 hosting Kansas City. One concern – the Week 9 game against the Chargers is immediately after San Diego’s bye week.
New York Giants – Just Week 10, hosting Oakland (right after the Giants’ bye week).
Dallas – Just Week 13 hosting Oakland.
Green Bay – Week 7 hosting Cleveland.
Minnesota – Week 3 hosting Cleveland.
Chicago – Week 15 at Cleveland.
Atlanta – Week 5 hosting the Jets on Monday Night Football, Week 8 at Arizona, Week 13 at Buffalo.
San Francisco – Week 7 at Tennessee, Week 8 “at” Jacksonville (the game is in London).
Seattle – Week 3 hosting Jacksonville, Week 6 hosting Tennessee.
New England – Week 1 at Buffalo, Week 2 hosting the Jets, Week 14 hosting Cleveland.
Baltimore – Week 12 hosting the Jets.
Cincinnati – Week 8 hosting the Jets.
Houston – Week 1 at San Diego, Week 11 hosting Oakland, Week 12 hosting Jacksonville.
Indianapolis – Week 1 hosting Oakland, Week 13 hosting Jacksonville (divisional game).
Denver – Week 3 hosting Oakland (divisional game), Week 4 hosting Philadelphia, Week 6 hosting Jacksonville.
With 15 teams and some choice games selected, let’s see how this looks as far as a weekly plan:
Week 1 – NE (at BUF), HOU (at SD), INDY (vs. OAK)
Week 2 – NE (vs. NYJ)
Week 3 – MIN (vs. CLE), SEA (vs. JAX), DEN (vs. OAK) (Divisional game)
Week 4 – WASH (at OAK), DEN (vs. PHI)
Week 5 – ATL (vs. NYJ, Monday)
Week 6 – DEN (vs. JAX), SEA (vs. TEN)
Week 7 – GB (vs. CLE), SF (at TEN)
Week 8 – SF (“at” JAX in London), ATL (at AZ), CIN (vs. NYJ)
Week 9 – WASH (vs. SD) (Concern with SD coming off of a bye)
Week 10 – NYG (vs. OAK) (Right after NYG bye week)
Week 11 – HOU (vs. OAK)
Week 12 – BAL (vs. NYJ), HOU (vs. JAX) (Divisional game)
Week 13 – ATL (at BUF), DAL (vs. OAK), INDY (vs. JAX) (Divisional game)
Week 14 – WASH (vs. KC), NE (vs. CLE)
Week 15 – CHI (at CLE)
Now I need to look for some surprise winners along this path to get me a few more options. To do that, I will look at the 4-5 worst teams and see if I can “steal” a win here or there. I can already see that Weeks 2, 3, 9 and 14 are going to present some challenges in making it all the way to the final two weeks of the season, so I need some more reasonable choices.
Three games jump out at me, which are the Eagles hosting San Diego in Week 2, the Vikings hosting the Browns in Week 3 and the Carolina Panthers hosting the Jets in Week 15. If I trust Minnesota in Week 3, I get to save Denver a little while longer – but I am not sure that is the best option. The Eagles are a very difficult team to gauge right now, but it is pretty true that the Chargers are looking rather poor right now. I am not going to commit to Philadelphia in Week 2, but I will add them as an option. Both of these give me some decision points as September begins to unfold.
Trimming down this list, I have the following “Master Plan” as we enter Week 1:
Week 1 – INDY (vs. OAK)
*Week 2 – NE (vs. NYJ) / PHI (vs. SD)
**Week 3 – MIN (vs. CLE); Alternate: DEN (vs. OAK), NO (vs. AZ)
***Week 4 – DEN (vs. PHI); Alternate: WASH (at OAK)
Week 5 – ATL (vs. NYJ, Monday)
***Week 6 – SEA (vs. TEN); Alternate: DEN (vs. JAX)
Week 7 – GB (vs. CLE); Alternate: SF (at TEN)
Week 8 – CIN (vs. NYJ); Alternates: SF (“at” JAX in London), ATL (at AZ)
***Week 9 – WASH (vs. SD) (Concern with SD coming off of a bye) / NO at NYJ / SEA vs. TB
Week 10 – NYG (vs. OAK) (Right after NYG bye week)
Week 11 – HOU (vs. OAK)
Week 12 – BAL (vs. NYJ)
Week 13 – DAL (vs. OAK)
**Week 14 – WASH (vs. KC) / NE (vs. CLE)
Week 15 – CAR (vs. NYJ); Alternate: CHI (at CLE)
I have three decision points – Weeks 2, 3 and Week 4. With Week 2, I have to decide if I want to save New England all the way to Week 14, or just go ahead and use them at home against the Jets, a divisional rival. If I want to save them, odds are I might pick a very unsure team in Philadelphia to buy myself a week early. If I am successful (or if I am in a contest where I can lose once and buy-back in) I might do this. The choice of Philadelphia is not outlandish, as this is their home opener, both they and the Chargers are coming off of a Monday Night Football game, and San Diego is traveling for a 10AM Pacific kickoff.
Week 3 gives some concerns too, as I am not sure if I will hold off on using Denver in favor of using the Vikings or Saints, who are both at home, appear to be playing weaker foes and not in the plan anywhere else – so I would lean towards using New Orleans or Minnesota here.
The other decision point is Week 4. I could just take Denver here (home against the Eagles), but if I want to save Denver until Week 6 I should consider the Redskins visiting Oakland for Week 4. That’s a good matchup for Washington, but it is a road game and that’s always a risky pick. Both choices impact Week 9, where I could use the Redskins (home against the Chargers, who are coming off of their bye), Seattle (hosting a good Tampa Bay team) or the Saints on the road at the Jets.
Lastly, if I think that the Survivor contest will still be going beyond Week 14, I have Carolina or Chicago in Week 15, plus I have not used San Francisco yet, who do host the Cardinals in Week 17. In order to get to Week 17, I would likely look hard at Miami hosting the Bills – but at that point of the season, I will have expended 15 teams and will take what I can get.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Survivor pools are a lot of fun, and it makes for a great contest to keep you interested in the NFL for most -- if not all -- of the regular season. Finding a contest like this and potentially winning the prize is a great way to enjoy the sport we all love in yet another way, so go ahead and play in one this year. With any luck, proper planning and the advice you read here will get you a long way towards winning that pool.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.