I'll share a little something about myself today. I'm not exactly a conventional thinker. That's sometimes good, often times bad, but there are enough "Aha" moments where you have a revelation that might be just enough to say that all the oddball ideas that pop in your head are worth it if you can have one of those thoughts that pays off. Whether this is one of those moments is yet to be decided, but I think there is some hope.
First off, I'll set the stage for the discussion. When the NFL announced their 2014 season, we all poured over it and looked for fantasy implications. The first thing that jumped off the page was the bye weeks, as usual. Most Keeper League and Dynasty League players love to check that first so as to see if they have bye week issues in store for the coming season. That's when it dawned on myself and several others that the NFL hates us at times - no really, they do. Trust me. Otherwise, how could they not understand that these weeks where six teams have a bye week just wreak havoc with our fantasy teams?
The six teams off in one week started the first year of NBC's flex scheduling (2006), as the NFL wanted to adjust the bye weeks so that they would be done and gone by Week 11 and also so as to not have a team with a week off before Week 4. The net result of that simple math was that instead of eight weeks with four teams on a bye, the NFL would have two weeks where six teams took time off. In 2009 it got even worse as in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 six teams had a bye week (and as a result only two were off in Week 10). I guess you can consider it to be good news that “only” Weeks 8 and 9 in 2010 had six teams on a bye. As for this 2012, only Week 7 had six teams off, but byes ran from Week 4 to Week 11 (with just two teams on a bye in Week 4). For 2013, it only got more complicated as the byes extended to Week 12, with four weeks of just two teams on a bye (Weeks 4, 6, 7 and 11), three weeks with four teams on a bye (Weeks 5, 10 and 12) and still two other weeks with six teams off (Weeks 8 and 9). So what about 2014? The bye weeks extend once again to Week 12, leading to some weeks where just two teams are on a bye week (Weeks 5, 6, 7, 8 and 12), another with four teams off (Week 11), and three treacherous weeks (Weeks 4, 9 and 10) with six teams taking a rest.
All those byes made me think about the common question we have every year about bye weeks. Does it make good sense to collect players with the same bye weeks so as to have your team at full strength all the other games rather than patching your team for seven weeks during the year?
At first I didn't like the idea, since you are basically writing off a week on your schedule. Walking into a 13-game schedule at 0-1 already is not a great idea in my book. It gets even worse if you are in a league with fewer games or that punishes exceptionally bad performance weeks (such as the "All Play" format where you play everyone every week). All that aside, I thought I would at least see if I could come up with a recipe to do just the thing that people asked for - draft a team with all the same bye weeks.
I decided I would use three rules:
- Focus on a complete starting lineup (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and a TE)
- The lineup had to be complete by Round 10 (Pick 120)
- No reach picks
By Rule #3 I mean that if you wanted to accomplish #1 and #2 but you had to draft a player in Round 5 that normally is still available in Rounds 6 or 7, that's off the table. We're not going to blow up our entire draft board just to get this together.
Next I decided to get all of the Top 120 picks based on recent ADP and sort them by Bye Weeks. Here is what I found:
Position | Bye | Player | Team | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|
WR | 4 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN/4 | 7 |
WR | 4 | A.J. Green | CIN/4 | 10 |
RB | 4 | Montee Ball | DEN/4 | 14 |
QB | 4 | Peyton Manning | DEN/4 | 17 |
RB | 4 | Giovani Bernard | CIN/4 | 16 |
RB | 4 | Marshawn Lynch | SEA/4 | 19 |
RB | 4 | Andre Ellington | ARI/4 | 29 |
TE | 4 | Julius Thomas | DEN/4 | 28 |
RB | 4 | Zac Stacy | STL/4 | 35 |
WR | 4 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI/4 | 41 |
WR | 4 | Wes Welker | DEN/4 | 47 |
WR | 4 | Percy Harvin | SEA/4 | 47 |
TE | 4 | Jordan Cameron | CLE/4 | 46 |
WR | 4 | Michael Floyd | ARI/4 | 50 |
RB | 4 | Ben Tate | CLE/4 | 69 |
WR | 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN/4 | 73 |
TD | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA/4 | 100 |
RB | 4 | Terrance West | CLE/4 | 99 |
QB | 4 | Russell Wilson | SEA/4 | 105 |
WR | 4 | Tavon Austin | STL/4 | 107 |
RB | 4 | Christine Michael | SEA/4 | 111 |
RB | 4 | Jeremy Hill | CIN/4 | 114 |
WR | 5 | Mike Wallace | MIA/5 | 70 |
RB | 5 | Lamar Miller | MIA/5 | 83 |
RB | 5 | Maurice Jones-Drew | OAK/5 | 95 |
RB | 5 | Knowshon Moreno | MIA/5 | 111 |
RB | 5 | Darren McFadden | OAK/5 | 109 |
TE | 5 | Charles Clay | MIA/5 | 118 |
RB | 6 | Jamaal Charles | KC/6 | 2 |
TE | 6 | Jimmy Graham | NO/6 | 7 |
QB | 6 | Drew Brees | NO/6 | 27 |
RB | 6 | Pierre Thomas | NO/6 | 68 |
WR | 6 | Marques Colston | NO/6 | 75 |
WR | 6 | Dwayne Bowe | KC/6 | 97 |
WR | 6 | Brandin Cooks | NO/6 | 103 |
RB | 6 | Khiry Robinson | NO/6 | 122 |
RB | 7 | LeSean McCoy | PHI/7 | 2 |
RB | 7 | Doug Martin | TB/7 | 26 |
WR | 7 | Vincent Jackson | TB/7 | 36 |
QB | 7 | Nick Foles | PHI/7 | 65 |
WR | 7 | Jeremy Maclin | PHI/7 | 65 |
RB | 7 | Darren Sproles | PHI/7 | 90 |
WR | 7 | Mike Evans | TB/7 | 100 |
TE | 7 | Zach Ertz | PHI/7 | 109 |
WR | 7 | Riley Cooper | PHI/7 | 111 |
WR | 8 | Victor Cruz | NYG/8 | 34 |
WR | 8 | Michael Crabtree | SF/8 | 44 |
RB | 8 | Rashad Jennings | NYG/8 | 56 |
TE | 8 | Vernon Davis | SF/8 | 63 |
RB | 8 | Frank Gore | SF/8 | 74 |
QB | 8 | Colin Kaepernick | SF/8 | 87 |
WR | 8 | Rueben Randle | NYG/8 | 110 |
RB | 8 | Carlos Hyde | SF/8 | 117 |
RB | 9 | Matt Forte | CHI/9 | 4 |
WR | 9 | Calvin Johnson | DET/9 | 4 |
RB | 9 | Eddie Lacy | GB/9 | 8 |
WR | 9 | Julio Jones | ATL/9 | 13 |
WR | 9 | Brandon Marshall | CHI/9 | 14 |
WR | 9 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI/9 | 20 |
WR | 9 | Jordy Nelson | GB/9 | 21 |
QB | 9 | Aaron Rodgers | GB/9 | 26 |
WR | 9 | Randall Cobb | GB/9 | 25 |
RB | 9 | Reggie Bush | DET/9 | 33 |
RB | 9 | C.J. Spiller | BUF/9 | 33 |
QB | 9 | Matthew Stafford | DET/9 | 48 |
WR | 9 | Roddy White | ATL/9 | 43 |
RB | 9 | Bishop Sankey | TEN/9 | 56 |
RB | 9 | Joique Bell | DET/9 | 59 |
WR | 9 | Kendall Wright | TEN/9 | 61 |
QB | 9 | Matt Ryan | ATL/9 | 73 |
WR | 9 | Sammy Watkins | BUF/9 | 77 |
WR | 9 | Golden Tate | DET/9 | 85 |
RB | 9 | Steven Jackson | ATL/9 | 88 |
RB | 9 | Fred Jackson | BUF/9 | 103 |
RB | 9 | Devonta Freeman | ATL/9 | 107 |
QB | 9 | Jay Cutler | CHI/9 | 117 |
TE | 9 | Martellus Bennett | CHI/9 | 117 |
RB | 10 | Adrian Peterson | MIN/10 | 4 |
RB | 10 | Arian Foster | HOU/10 | 19 |
TE | 10 | Rob Gronkowski | NE/10 | 23 |
RB | 10 | Alfred Morris | WAS/10 | 35 |
WR | 10 | Pierre Garcon | WAS/10 | 33 |
WR | 10 | Keenan Allen | SD/10 | 33 |
WR | 10 | Andre Johnson | HOU/10 | 36 |
RB | 10 | Shane Vereen | NE/10 | 42 |
RB | 10 | Ryan Mathews | SD/10 | 49 |
WR | 10 | Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN/10 | 46 |
QB | 10 | Andrew Luck | IND/10 | 52 |
WR | 10 | DeSean Jackson | WAS/10 | 53 |
RB | 10 | Trent Richardson | IND/10 | 55 |
WR | 10 | T.Y. Hilton | IND/10 | 58 |
WR | 10 | Julian Edelman | NE/10 | 61 |
QB | 10 | Robert Griffin III | WAS/10 | 69 |
QB | 10 | Tom Brady | NE/10 | 78 |
RB | 10 | Stevan Ridley | NE/10 | 82 |
TE | 10 | Jordan Reed | WAS/10 | 80 |
WR | 10 | Reggie Wayne | IND/10 | 88 |
TE | 10 | Kyle Rudolph | MIN/10 | 89 |
RB | 10 | Danny Woodhead | SD/10 | 88 |
QB | 10 | Philip Rivers | SD/10 | 106 |
WR | 10 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU/10 | 107 |
WR | 10 | Hakeem Nicks | IND/10 | 113 |
WR | 11 | Dez Bryant | DAL/11 | 9 |
RB | 11 | DeMarco Murray | DAL/11 | 14 |
RB | 11 | Toby Gerhart | JAX/11 | 45 |
RB | 11 | Chris Johnson | NYJ/11 | 57 |
RB | 11 | Ray Rice | BAL/11 | 61 |
WR | 11 | Torrey Smith | BAL/11 | 62 |
TE | 11 | Jason Witten | DAL/11 | 69 |
TE | 11 | Dennis Pitta | BAL/11 | 85 |
WR | 11 | Eric Decker | NYJ/11 | 80 |
WR | 11 | Terrance Williams | DAL/11 | 85 |
QB | 11 | Tony Romo | DAL/11 | 89 |
RB | 11 | Bernard Pierce | BAL/11 | 105 |
WR | 11 | Ce'cil Shorts | JAX/11 | 103 |
RB | 12 | LeVeon Bell | PIT/12 | 17 |
WR | 12 | Antonio Brown | PIT/12 | 20 |
QB | 12 | Cam Newton | CAR/12 | 78 |
TE | 12 | Greg Olsen | CAR/12 | 81 |
QB | 12 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT/12 | 119 |
Table 1: Top 120 Players By ADP, Sorted By Bye Weeks
Next I took a look at the positional breakdown for each Week's players:
Week | Players | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
5 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
9 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
10 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
11 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Table 2: Bye Weeks vs. Positions
After reviewing Table 2 I decided to eliminate Weeks 5, 6, 7, 8 and 12 (too few players). Remember, I'm not reaching for a TE2 or QB2 or a committee to make this happen. After those weeks were eliminated I noticed that it does seem possible to pull this off if everything goes correctly, but much will depend on what draft pick you have to start and also how things start to shake out in the draft. Week 11 is still pretty thin, but I will go over it just in case you like this idea and see your draft heading towards selecting 5-6 of these players.
First, let’s start with Week 4. With 22 players from Denver, Cincinnati, Seattle, Cleveland, St. Louis and Arizona, there is much to like about this group (including the only defense, by the way). With six players from the Broncos, you have to believe that Denver can light up the scoreboard again this year to really consider drafting like this. There are also five Seahawks (if you count the defense) and three players each from Arizona, Cincinnati and Cleveland on this chart (RB in red, WR in green, QB in blue, TE in purple):
Rnd | Player | Player | Player | Player |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Demaryius Thomas | A.J. Green | ||
2 | Montee Ball | Peyton Manning | Giovani Bernard | Marshawn Lynch |
3 | Andre Ellington | Julius Thomas | Zac Stacy | |
4 | Larry Fitzgerald | Wes Welker | Percy Harvin | Jordan Cameron |
5 | Michael Floyd | |||
6 | Ben Tate | |||
7 | Emmanuel Sanders | |||
8 | ||||
9 | Seattle Seahawks | Terrance West | Russell Wilson | Tavon Austin |
10 | Christine Michael | Jeremy Hill |
Table 3: Players with Week 4 Byes
I would only think about this if you wound up with Demaryius Thomas or A.J. Green to start with a corresponding running back with a Week 4 bye in Round 2. Round three looks like a great shot at your tight end in Julius Thomas, and that allows you to secure your second and third wideouts in Rounds 4 and 5 if you are sticking strictly to the plan. Of course, you can grab a second running back in Round 3 and grab wide receiver depth later. To work this plan the best though you should be targeting Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron in Rounds 3-4, or else plan on deviating at the tight end position. Fewer choices exist in Rounds 6 (only Ben Tate) and Round 7 (Emmanuel Sanders), although both are solid picks if you can get them. Rounds 9 and 10 offer 2-3 skill position players, allowing for a well rounded lineup. Overall, this is a very reasonable and solid plan, although taking a virtually automatic loss in just Week 4 of the fantasy season sounds a little scary.
Now let’s look at Week 9 players. Now we have even more options (24 players), and you better have a reasonably early pick to secure Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy or Calvin Johnson. If that happens, you might want to remember this next table:
Rnd | Player | Player | Player | Player |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt Forte | Calvin Johnson | Eddie Lacy | |
2 | Julio Jones | Brandon Marshall | Alshon Jeffery | Jordy Nelson |
3 | Aaron Rodgers | Randall Cobb | Reggie Bush | C.J. Spiller |
4 | Matthew Stafford | Roddy White | ||
5 | Bishop Sankey | Joique Bell | ||
6 | Kendall Wright | |||
7 | Matt Ryan | Sammy Watkins | ||
8 | Steven Jackson | |||
9 | Fred Jackson | Devonta Freeman | ||
10 | Jay Cutler | Martellus Bennett |
Table 4: Players with Week 9 Byes
I would consider this plan if I started with one of those three in Round 1 (Forte, Lacy, Calvin Johnson) and then grab one of the four wide receivers available in Round 2 with a corresponding Week 9 bye. Then you can go after Reggie Bush as the best target in Round 3, with either Matthew Stafford or Roddy White in Round 4. I would target White if he gets back to you, then wait for either Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler later in the draft. Martellus Bennett is a great target for your tight end in Round 10. I think that this is an even better plan than Week 4, as you have more depth and can get a feel how you are doing in Weeks 1-8 before panicking if you are about to tank Week 9.
Now let's look quickly at Week 10:
Rnd | Player | Player | Player | Player | Player |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adrian Peterson | ||||
2 | Arian Foster | Rob Gronkowski | |||
3 | Alfred Morris | Pierre Garcon | Keenan Allen | Andre Johnson | |
4 | Shane Vereen | Cordarrelle Patterson | |||
5 | Ryan Mathews | Andrew Luck | DeSean Jackson | Trent Richardson | T.Y. Hilton |
6 | Julian Edelman | Robert Griffin III | |||
7 | Tom Brady | Stevan Ridley | Jordan Reed | ||
8 | Reggie Wayne | Kyle Rudolph | Danny Woodhead | ||
9 | Philip Rivers | DeAndre Hopkins | |||
10 | Hakeem Nicks |
Table 5: Players with Week 10 Byes
This has to be considered the "Adrian Peterson Plan", as he is the only Week 10 bye week player in the opening round. If you can get him, Rob Gronkowski and a reasonable running back or wide receiver in Round 3, you could be in business. Cordarelle Patterson could be there for you in Round 4, and by then you have multiple options in the next five rounds including five in Round 5 and three each in Rounds 7 and 8. A lineup of Peterson and Ryan Mathews at running back, Rob Gronkowski at tight end and Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson and DeSean Jackson looks pretty solid, as does adding Tom Brady or Philip Rivers. - all before Round 10.
Now for the last real option – Week 11. The numbers are much smaller (only 13 players) and not every round has an option, so this could be tricky. But if it just so happens that you start your draft with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, or even if you just get one of those and then snare Toby Gerhart in Round 4, think about going for the complete disregard for Week 11 in your starting lineup. Rounds 6-9 have nine players available with Week 11 byes, including the Baltimore backfield (Ray Rice in Round 6, Bernard Pierce in Round 9) along with Tony Romo and either Eric Decker or Dennis Pitta as well. Even if you grab Jason Witten too, do not worry about loading up on the Dallas Cowboys. Their defense looks to be terrible again this year (remember when they scored 48 points last season and LOST?) so go ahead and load up on Cowboys.
Rnd | Player | Player | Player |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Dez Bryant | ||
2 | DeMarco Murray | ||
3 | |||
4 | Toby Gerhart | ||
5 | Chris Johnson | ||
6 | Ray Rice | Torrey Smith | Jason Witten |
7 | Eric Decker | ||
8 | Dennis Pitta | Terrance Williams | Tony Romo |
9 | Bernard Pierce | Cecil Shorts | |
10 |
Table 6: Players with Week 11 Byes
If your draft goes a certain way and you start to collect players with the same bye week, do not freak out. Just remember this article and think about compounding the "problem" by building a team that will be 100% full when other teams have bye weeks affecting their lineups. There are a number of ways to try this out and make it a successful draft, but remember my earlier warnings about planning for a loss in your fantasy season. Good luck.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.