For the Win: Week 8

Photo: Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports

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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Week 7 was a train wreck, pure and simple.  Many people would pack up and run at that point after such a weak start on the year, but I’ve been doing this for a long time and I know that things go in cycles.  Each week is unique unto itself, and with the way I see Week 8, I cannot wait to press on and make some picks, as I see a lot of value here.  Let’s get started.

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

(Thursday) SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at DENVER
Everyone loves the Broncos and Peyton Manning right now.  Denver destroyed San Francisco on Sunday Night Football with Manning being celebrated and coronated as the all-time passing touchdown leader with 509 (and counting).  So now what?  We are supposed to overlook how hot Philip Rivers has been and that he actually beat Denver last year on a Thursday night?  I remember, and so should you.  The Chargers are a very, very good team and this is a divisional contest, so the smart money takes the points here, especially getting over a touchdown.  PICK:  Chargers

DETROIT (-3.5) “at” ATLANTA (London, England)
No Calvin Johnson? No problem for the Lions, who are coming off of a big comeback win at home against the Saints and are now facing the woeful Atlanta Falcons, who can spank Tampa Bay but have struggled to get 20 points in the last three weeks – and are trending downwards on offense after just getting seven points in Baltimore.  Atlanta has lost four in a row, all by more than 10 points.  The Detroit defense is good and Atlanta struggles on offense – does that sound like a good combo for the Falcons?  Throw in that Detroit is still managing to play well on offense and I think we see a blowout by the Lions early Sunday morning.  (NOTE – This game is EARLY on Sunday, like, really early.  9:30AM Eastern.  Be advised.)   PICK:  Lions

MINNESOTA (+3) at TAMPA BAY
Deciding between two bad teams is never good, but I am looking at the two defenses here.  Minnesota had a bad lapse last week at the end of the game that cost them in Buffalo, but they still held the Bills to 17 points.  Tampa Bay has given up lots of points and was lucky to win their only victory in Pittsburgh.  The Buccaneers are better with Mike Glennon and Doug Martin should be stronger after a bye week, but the Vikings have a better defense.  As long as Teddy Bridgewater protects the ball (a big if) then I like Minnesota to run the ball well with Jerick McKinnon and win this one.  I’ll still take the points though.  PICK: Vikings

NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) vs. BUFFALO
This is an interesting battle between one of the teams allegedly in New York against the team that actually plays within the state lines (most of the time) while at home.  The Jets looked really good in a loss against the Patriots last Thursday, and they just added Percy Harvin to the mix.  The Bills needed a big comeback to beat Minnesota after losing their top two running backs.  The Bills would struggle to run against the Jets even if they had Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller, but Kyle Orton is going to be asked to pull this one off.  That’s a tall order.  I think the Jets get a win here and start to build some positive momentum.    PICK:  Jets.

NEW ENGLAND (-6) vs. CHICAGO
New England just got a close call against the Jets last Thursday, eeking out a two point victory at home.  Now the Patriots host the Bears, a team falling apart at the seams after a bad loss at home to Miami.  I think Chicago will have a competitive showing, but the Patriots are a tough team to face for a team in turmoil.  I expect plenty of points but I also expect Jay Cutler to make at least one bad mistake, and that could be the difference.  PICK: Patriots

SEATTLE (-4) at CAROLINA
Seattle on the road again – how can I pick them? Well, the Panthers are not as good as the Rams (really, they aren’t) and this is not a divisional contest.  The Seahawks are being questioned by everyone right now as not being a good team, but I think that they start to right that ship against Carolina.  The Panthers were just shredded by Aaron Rodgers last week and Russell Wilson is red hot.  Take the hot quarterback to lead the Seahawks to a much needed victory.  PICK:  Seahawks

MIAMI (-5.5) at JACKSONVILLE
Okay Jacksonville – the party is over.  You got your win, and now you have to face one of the other Florida teams that will likely have the stands and fans dominated by Dolphins supporters.  Miami just got a big road win in Chicago and their offense is clicking, plus the defense is looking solid.  Jacksonville got a good win at home over Cleveland, but they cannot expect defensive takeaways like they got against Cleveland.  I like the Dolphins to roll all over Jacksonville here and win by double digits.  PICK:  Dolphins

BALTIMORE (+1.5) at CINCINNATI
The Ravens are just better than the Bengals right now.  Cincinnati was shut out at Indianapolis last week while the Ravens piled up a big win over Atlanta, their second large victory in a row.  The Bengals are not the same team as they are with AJ Green and the defense is not looking nearly as dominant as they once were.  Throw in that Cincinnati cannot stop tight ends and Owen Daniels is coming off of a big game and I see a big day for the Ravens.   PICK: Ravens

HOUSTON (-1) at TENNESSEE
Both teams are bad, but which one is less terrible – that’s the ugly question.  Arian Foster should be able to pace the Texans to a win against the hapless Titans, even if Jake Locker is able to play.  I don’t like either teams very much at all here, but I think the Texans have more talent on both sides of the ball than Tennessee.    PICK:  Texans

KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
The virtual cross-state rivalry of Missouri heats up again with the Rams heading to Kansas City here in Week 8.   St. Louis is riding high after a big win at home against Seattle, but they had to pull  out all of the stops and use several trick plays to beat the Seahawks – by less than a field goal (and were one fumble call away from a possible loss).  Now the Rams travel to the Chiefs, who scored a strong win in San Diego after their bye week (never go against Andy Reid after a bye – remember that).  Kansas City is a much better team than St. Louis and the Rams will not be as strong in a hostile Arrowhead Stadium.  I have the Chiefs winning by way more than a touchdown, something like 31-16.  PICK: Chiefs

PHILADELPHIA (+2.5) at ARIZONA
In what has to be one of the quietest big matchups of October, the 5-1 Eagles head to the 5-1 Arizona Cardinals for a Week 8 showdown of former divisional teams.  Yes, young readers – the Cardinals were once in the same division as Philadelphia, go figure.  These two teams are much different than back then, as Philadelphia loves to move the ball as fast as possible and Arizona is a very dangerous team on both sides of the ball.  Both teams are very good this season and I have this game as pretty much a coin flip call.  That tells me to just take the points and hope for the best outcome, but I’d much rather pass on picking this one and just enjoy the game.   PICK:  Eagles

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at PITTSBURGH
The Steelers pulled out a big comeback against the Texans on Monday Night Football, but I am not impressed by the list of four teams that they have beaten (Houston, Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville). Not impressive.  As for Indianapolis, no one is giving the Colts much respect this year.  They just shut out Cincinnati at home for their fifth consecutive win, and they have two quality losses to start the year (Denver, Philadelphia).  Guess which way I am leaning.   PICK: Colts

CLEVELAND (-6.5) vs. OAKLAND
The schedule makers had appeared to make life easy for the Browns with back-to-back games against Jacksonville and Oakland, but a troubling loss on the road in Jacksonville last week have Browns backers scratching their heads.  What happened?  Turnovers, that’s what the problem was, and if the Browns can control possession and get going early against the Raiders, I think that Cleveland will get back on the winning track.  Also, taking teams against Oakland has been the right thing to do all year, so why buck that trend.  PICK:  Browns

GREEN BAY (+1.5) at NEW ORLEANS
I understand why the Saints are favored here, but that does not make it any easier to comprehend.  The Packers are tearing teams apart of late, winning four in a row by scoring 27 or more points in all of those contests and an average margin of victory of 19 (mostly because of a close call with an underrated Miami team on the road).  The Saints are only 2-4 and have injury concerns (Pierre Thomas out, Jimmy Graham not at 100%), but New Orleans is very tough at home, picking up their only two victories in Louisiana.  Now if you factor in the competition for those two games (Minnesota, Tampa Bay) then you have to wonder – how good (or bad) are the Saints?  I know this much – Green Bay is hotter, healthier, playing better and has more talent than the Saints as of right now.  Give me Green Bay and an extra point.  PICK:  Packers

(Monday) DALLAS (-9) vs. WASHINGTON
An old, old rivalry rekindles here with Washington traveling to Texas for a big Monday Night Football contest to close out Week 8.  Latest news has Colt McCoy starting for Washington, while DeMarco Murray will be shooting for yet another 100-yard rushing game.  Sure there is a big rivalry here, but when talent is not up to that rivalry, the bad blood matters very little here.  Dallas is just far better than Washington right now and should be able to dominate them on Monday night.  PICK: Cowboys

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

• DETROIT (-3.5) “at” ATLANTA (London, England)
• SEATTLE (-4) at CAROLINA
• MIAMI (-5.5) at JACKSONVILLE
• HOUSTON (-1) at TENNESSEE

• (Thursday) SAN DIEGO (“FOR THE WIN” +320) at DENVER
• MINNESOTA (“FOR THE WIN” +135) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (“FOR THE WIN” +105) at CINCINNATI
• PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +130) at ARIZONA
• GREEN BAY (“FOR THE WIN” +105) at NEW ORLEANS

• 6-POINT TEASER:  1TMIAMI (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE (UNDER 49.5)
• 6-POINT TEASER:  1TCLEVELAND (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND  (UNDER 50)
• 6-POINT TEASER:  T(Monday) DALLAS (-3) vs. WASHINGTON (OVER 43.5)

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS): 
  • KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
  • CLEVELAND (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND   
  • INDIANAPOLIS (+3) at PITTSBURGH

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS): 
  • KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
  • CLEVELAND (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND   
  • INDIANAPOLIS (+3) at PITTSBURGH  
  • MIAMI (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS): 
  • KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
  • CLEVELAND (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND   
  • INDIANAPOLIS (+3) at PITTSBURGH  
  • MIAMI (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
  • NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO

• 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS): 
  • KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
  • CLEVELAND (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND   
  • INDIANAPOLIS (+3) at PITTSBURGH  
  • MIAMI (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
  • NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
  • SEATTLE (+2) at CAROLINA

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• BALTIMORE (+1.5) at CINCINNATI
• CLEVELAND (-6.5) vs. OAKLAND

• 6-POINT TEASER:  SEATTLE (+2) at CAROLINA (UNDER 50.5)
• 6-POINT TEASER:  BALTIMORE (+7.5) at CINCINNATI (OVER 39.5)
• 6-POINT TEASER:  KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS (OVER 37.5)
• 6-POINT TEASER:  PHILADELPHIA (+8.5) at ARIZONA (OVER 42)

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
• INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at PITTSBURGH  

• 6-POINT TEASER:  NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO (OVER 43.5)

PICKS OF THE WEEK:  Detroit, New England, Seattle, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City, Indianapolis

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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