Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
I sort of feel like Cincinnati and Carolina after Week 6, posting another average performance by going 7-7-1. It seems that every year I start slow and then start to pick up the pace, and I hope that Week 7 is the week I turn that corner. The games are not too attractive at first glance, but let’s dig in and see how each game breaks down as we near the middle of the regular season. Let’s get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
I know that the Jets usually play close games with New England, but it is clear to me that the Jets are really bad this year and the Patriots are starting to kick it into another gear. Fold in that Thursday night games are usually blowouts and the home team is usually a safer bet, plus I get Tom Brady coming off of a strong performance – and I can see this as a double-digit, easy win for New England. PICK: Patriots
BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs. ATLANTA
Here is a matchup between two clubs that demolished Tampa Bay, but I have to side with the Ravens at home against Atlanta. Baltimore has three options at tailback to run against the worst rushing defense in the NFL, while Atlanta struggled mightily against a mediocre Chicago team at home last week. I don’t see Atlanta keeping this one close. PICK: Ravens
WASHINGTON (-5) vs. TENNESSEE
Another matchup of really bad teams here as Tennessee visits D.C. this week. Tennessee almost blew their lead against Jacksonville (the Jaguars!) last week, barely edging out a narrow 2-point victory. That won’t cut it against Washington, who has had their offense going pretty well against Seattle and Arizona the last two weeks. Kirk Cousins should be able to lead Washington to their second win over a bad team (Washington’s only other win – Jacksonville, of course). Watch some other game while Washington edges the Titans by a touchdown, 20-13. (Note, the money line for Tennessee is too good a value not to take in a game that could go either way – so there’s a preview of a pick later). PICK: Washington
SEATTLE (-6.5) at ST. LOUIS
Seattle was embarrassed at home against Dallas last week, and they do not strike me as a team that takes any setback well. St. Louis blew a 14-point lead at home to San Francisco on Monday, and now they get to host Seattle. Clearly the schedule maker is not a fan of the Rams. Look for the Seahawks to get a big divisional win on the road as Russell Wilson tears the Rams apart. PICK: Seahawks.
CLEVELAND (-4.5) at JACKSONVILLE
I could give you lots of reasons why the Browns are better than Jacksonville, but then again most teams are right now. In fact, I think every team is better than Jacksonville right now. Cleveland will use Ben Tate early and often and sprinkle in some passing to easily top Jacksonville by more than 10 this week. Use the Cleveland defense and their kicker accordingly. PICK: Browns
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) vs. CINCINNATI
I don’t like picking this game at all. I could see either team winning this one, but the Colts have a red hot quarterback while the Bengals just kissed their sister for 75 minutes against Carolina, recording the highest scoring tie since the merger. How’s that for an awesome record to have? Both teams are of playoff caliber, but I will go with the home team. Note, the point spread is moving, so if you like Cincinnati, look for a “hook” and get 3.5 points, which I think really does matter here. PICK: Colts
BUFFALO (-4) vs. MINNESOTA
Before you throw this game away as two bad teams squaring off, consider this – the Bills are great against the run and Minnesota has a struggling quarterback. How are the Vikings going to put points on the board? Buffalo can play below average offense and they would still win by more than a touchdown. I love Buffalo in this one. PICK: Bills
CHICAGO (-3) vs. MIAMI
I am just going to keep picking Chicago and not look back. The Bears are capable of beating nearly anyone in the NFL right now if they play well, but their defense has to hold up and Jay Cutler has to not make boneheaded throws. Yeah, I know – neither is guaranteed to happen every week, but I like Chicago’s talent far more than Miami’s, and the Dolphins just lost Knowshon Moreno for the year. Bears 27, Dolphins 20. PICK: Bears
NEW ORLEANS (+3) at DETROIT
I understand why Detroit is favored here, and it comes down to their defense – but think about this game a bit. New Orleans is well rested after a bye week, and even though Jimmy Graham will be out, the Saints love a fast track and Detroit provides one. Calvin Johnson is going to miss this one and Detroit is not the same high-powered offense without him. Drew Brees is only the second stud quarterback to face Detroit this season, and I like his chances of posting a 250-yard game with multiple touchdown passes. Give me the Saints, both with the points and for the win. PICK: Saints
GREEN BAY (-7) vs. CAROLINA
You know, Las Vegas bookmakers are really, really good. I guessed that this game would be right at a touchdown of a spread, and that is exactly where it is. Both teams are playing pretty well, although you would not necessarily know that after the Panthers tied Cincinnati last week and Green Bay had to win the game on the last play in Miami. Both offenses are putting up points but the defenses are also giving up chances too. Normally I would take the points in that type of situation, but the Packers are a better team and more balanced on offense thanks to Eddie Lacy. Throw in home field advantage and I think this game could easily “push” at 34-27, Packers. I will take the home team officially here, but I am avoiding this game overall. PICK: Packers
SAN DIEGO (-4) vs. KANSAS CITY
The Chargers were almost upset by the Raiders last week, needing a late touchdown to edge Oakland on the road – yet I am taking them this week to win and cover against the Chiefs. Kansas City is well rested after the bye week, and Andy Reid is usually extremely strong after a bye, but the Chargers are one of the best teams in the league right now. Once again I like how Las Vegas pegged this game between a field goal and a touchdown, and it will be one of the best matchups of the week. I just like Rivers and the passing game more than Kansas City, but I could see a cover here. Close call, but I take San Diego at home by six or seven points, something like 30-24. PICK: Chargers
ARIZONA (-3.5) at OAKLAND
Arizona is clearly a different team with Carson Palmer, who helped both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd to find the end zone for the first time this season last week against Washington. Oakland cannot stop the run game, which means Andre Ellington should have a field day. As long as Derek Carr does not have another career game this week, Arizona should win going away. PICK: Cardinals
DALLAS (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
This game screams “It’s a trap!” to me, as Dallas just beat Seattle on the road, which is no easy feat. As for the Giants, they are still wondering how they failed to score against the Eagles last Sunday night, and now they have to face Dallas not just without Rashad Jennings but also without Victor Cruz. Ouch. DeMarco Murray feels like a lock for another big game of 100+ yards and at least one touchdown while Eli Manning has to rely on Reuben Randle and rookie Odell Beckham Jr. I like the Cowboys by more than a touchdown as New York continues to struggle on the road. PICK: Cowboys
DENVER (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
This game is another tough one to call. San Francisco is playing at a very high level on offense and defense, which would have me picking them against almost any team outside of Seattle or Denver. So guess where the 49ers go this week? Colorado, of course. Peyton Manning is only three touchdown passes from the NFL record of 509, and you can bet the NBC Sunday Night Football crew will be talking that up incessantly come Sunday. I know that Manning could not care less, and really, most everyone else doesn’t care either about football records, but Manning will be amped up to perform well on the national stage. San Francisco will put up a strong fight, but I like the Broncos to win by 7-10 points. Tough game to pick, but if you have to take anything here, consider the over of 50.5 points. PICK: Broncos
(Monday) HOUSTON (+3.5) at PITTSBURGH
Are we still considering Pittsburgh as an elite franchise? Also, are we also not giving the Texans due respect? This game is going to be so dull to watch as I think both the Steelers and Texans want to run the ball, and this game could be a 19-16 or 20-17 type game. Arian Foster and LeVeon Bell will both likely top 100 yards and find the end zone, but this game is a defensive special. I actually have Houston as the better team here and I think the Steelers are getting national team love from a big fan base and also Las Vegas. The smart money will be all over Houston, and you should follow suit. PICK: Texans
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- CHICAGO (-3) vs. MIAMI
- NEW ORLEANS (+3) at DETROIT
The following games represent good value for upsets, so I am taking several teams “For the Win”:
- TENNESSEE (“FOR THE WIN” +210) vs. WASHINGTON (Two bad teams – anyone can win)
- NEW ORLEANS (“FOR THE WIN” +135) at DETROIT (New Orleans and Drew Brees can beat anyone)
- KANSAS CITY (“FOR THE WIN” +190) vs. SAN DIEGO (Andy Reid is fantastic after a bye)
- NEW YORK GIANTS (“FOR THE WIN” +240) at DALLAS (Dallas letdown? Tony Romo implosion? Either could happen)
- SAN FRANCISCO (“FOR THE WIN” +250) vs. DENVER (San Francisco is playing well)
- HOUSTON (“FOR THE WIN” +160) at PITTSBURGH (Houston is better)
Teasers:
- 6-POINT TEASER: BALTIMORE (-0.5) vs. ATLANTA (OVER 43)
- 6-POINT TEASER: GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CAROLINA (OVER 42.5)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-0.5) at ST. LOUIS
- GREEN BAY vs. CAROLINA (OVER 42.5)
- DENVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44.5)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-0.5) at ST. LOUIS
- GREEN BAY vs. CAROLINA (OVER 42.5)
- DENVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44.5)
- (Monday) HOUSTON (+9.5) at PITTSBURGH
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-0.5) at ST. LOUIS
- GREEN BAY vs. CAROLINA (OVER 42.5)
- DENVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44.5)
- (Monday) HOUSTON (+9.5) at PITTSBURGH
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) vs. ATLANTA
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- SEATTLE (-6.5) at ST. LOUIS
- CLEVELAND (-4.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. MINNESOTA
- ARIZONA (-3.5) at OAKLAND
- (Monday) HOUSTON (+3.5) at PITTSBURGH
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: New England, Baltimore, Seattle, Cleveland, Buffalo, Chicago, New Orleans, Arizona, Houston
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-7-1 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 3.55-5 (41.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-3 (40%)
Season
- OVERALL: 44-45-2 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 41.9-58 (41.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 17-20 (45.9%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.