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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 5 was another meandering down the middle of the road, going 7-8 and landing just at .500 for my picks and stars across the board. Week 6 does not look much more promising as I am struggling to find any teams I truly like this week against their numbers. It seems that we either have big matchups or terrible ones that look to be recipes for point spread disasters (and back door covers). Nevertheless, we shall press on and see what we can make of this week’s slate of contests. Let’s get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at HOUSTON
Typically the home teams fare better in this short week matchups, but I am going to pick the better offense and the better quarterback against the better defense. Granted this game could easily be decided by the Texans’ offense against the Colts’ defense, but Indianapolis is the top scoring team in the league (31 points per game) and their defense is averaging two takeaways a game as well. Given that Ryan Fitzpatrick is still Ryan Fitzpatrick, I will take Indianapolis by more than three, and quite possibly a blowout if Arian Foster cannot perform. PICK: Colts
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at BUFFALO
New England heads to Buffalo for a divisional AFC East matchup where the Bills are flying high after a big win against Detroit last week. Kyle Orton will lead the team once again as the starting quarterback, but it remains to be seen if the Patriots can keep up their momentum after a strong victory at home on Monday night against Cincinnati. I think Tom Brady knows the importance of a road AFC East win here as a loss would make New England 0-2 in the division and the Bills 2-0. They cannot afford that at all. Take the Patriots by at least a touchdown, 27-20. PICK: Patriots
CINCINNATI (-7) vs. CAROLINA
The running back challenged Panthers travel to Ohio the not-ready-for-prime-time Bengals in Cincinnati this week. The Bengals are a disastrous team when the big spotlight shines on them, either on a national broadcast like Monday Night Football or a playoff game in January. The good news for Cincinnati is that few people will be eyeballing them this week with a much more typical 1PM Eastern kickoff. Carolina heads in with a win over the Bears from Week 5, almost a gift from Jay Cutler and the special teams of Chicago that gave Carolina four turnovers and a botched punt coverage touchdown. I like Cincinnati to rebound in a big way at home this week. PICK: Bengals
CLEVELAND (-1.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
Will the real Steelers team please stand up? Is this the team that decimated the Panthers a few weeks ago, or is this the club that lost to Tampa Bay and barely held on against Jacksonville last week? While Pittsburgh deals with their identity crisis, the Browns keep finding new ways to score and win games, setting a record last week in a huge comeback against Tennessee. Give me the home team and give a few points, as the Browns are a more organized and disciplined squad than Pittsburgh, and I would not have guessed I would be saying that here in Week 6. PICK: Browns
GREEN BAY (-3) at MIAMI
Green Bay destroyed Minnesota last week, and they get extra time off heading into Week 6 – or so it would seem. Miami actually had a bye in Week 5, so the Dolphins will be at home and with longer time to heal up than Green Bay. That sounds great until you start to evaluate the matchups here, and I like Aaron Rodgers to outperform Ryan Tannehill by a wide margin. Eddie Lacy will hold his own to balance out the Green Bay offense, while Miami’s offensive line will likely struggle to protect Tannehill or open up running lanes for either Lamar Miller or Knowshon Moreno. Packers by a touchdown. PICK: Packers
MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
The Lions are reeling now after a bad loss to Buffalo at home and several injuries to key players. Calvin Johnson could be out this week, as could Joique Bell once again. Detroit is even on their third kicker this year now in Week 6 already, signing Matt Prater after Nate Freese and David Akers combined to make just 4 of 12 field goal attempts. Meanwhile the Vikings are getting stronger with Teddy Bridgewater likely back under center for Minnesota, and he makes the Vikings a much stronger offensive team. Putting all of that together and getting a point at home, I like taking Minnesota here to win over the Lions. PICK: Vikings
DENVER (-8) at NEW YORK JETS
How much do I really have to say about this game? Peyton Manning returns to the site of the Super Bowl loss from February, but he won’t be facing a Seahawks defense this time. Instead he gets the woeful Jets secondary, which never met a quarterback who could not rack up a field day against them. That is exactly what I expect here as Denver rolls all over the Jets who may be looking at back-to-back shutouts. PICK: Broncos
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. BALTIMORE
This is a tricky one, as Baltimore is heading out on the road for the second time in a row after a loss at Indianapolis in a very low scoring contest last week. Tampa Bay nearly pulled a second big upset in a row at New Orleans in Week 5, and they are looking to build momentum before their bye in Week 7. I like the direction Tampa Bay is headed, and they are getting points at home, which is a major plus. I see this one as a close contest, which makes me take the points, and I love getting more than a field goal. PICK: Buccaneers
JACKSONVILLE (+5) at TENNESSEE
Oh, my eyes! Do I have to watch this game? The good news is, no – and neither do you. In fact, I recommend strongly against it. Find your local sports bar, watch DirecTV, rent a movie – do pretty much anything else but watch this game. I think we could see another Titans implosion in Week 6 after their record-setting blown lead last week to the Browns at home. Jacksonville is the king of garbage time points, but I actually have been looking for when and where they could get that first (and possibly only) win this year. I see home games against Miami or Tennessee late in the year as the most likely chances, but this week could be the one where the Jaguars finally break their 0-fer streak. Take the points, and take the time to watch something else. PICK: Jaguars
SAN DIEGO (-7) at OAKLAND
Hmm… one of the best teams in the league on the road against one of the worst… do you think that they might cover by halftime and coast? Quite possibly, but remember these two are in the same division. Oakland was off last week so they will be better rested, but they still stink. Take the Chargers to trounce them before two bigger games coming in Weeks 7 (vs. KC) and 8 (at Denver). PICK: Chargers
WASHINGTON (+3.5) at ARIZONA
How do you pick a game when you have no idea who the starting quarterback will be for Arizona? Not that Kirk Cousins is fantastic, but is a solid team without question, but if Arizona has to start Logan Thomas at quarterback, I have to take Washington to cover and possibly win this one. The honest call here is to wait as long as you can and hope Carson Palmer goes if you want to take Arizona, but I have to take Washington knowing what I know now and how well they actually did play against Seattle. PICK: Washington
CHICAGO (+3.5) at ATLANTA
Oh Chicago, I just cannot quick picking you. When will I ever learn? This game should be toss-up, much like Jay Cutler’s passes over the middle (zing!). Give me the Bears to make this a close one and keep it to a field goal in either direction. PICK: Bears
SEATTLE (-8) vs. DALLAS
One thing about Las Vegas, you have to admire how they set lines. At seven points, I would see lots of money coming in on the Seahawks here, but at about 10 the money would pour in on the Cowboys. So how do they set the line? Right in the middle, of course. Perfect number, if you ask me. Considering that Seattle did not force a pick against Washington on the road last week but still won by 10 points, and that the Seahawks are going to try and shut down DeMarco Murray and force Tony Romo to throw, I see some turnovers heading towards Seattle. That tells me Seattle should win and cover. PICK: Seahawks
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) at PHILADELPHIA
A big NFC East clash on Sunday Night Football in Week 6 with a hot Giants team facing off with the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagles have let a lot of teams climb back into contests late in the games (like the Rams last week) which made Philadelphia “lose” against the spread in Week 5. The Eagles are struggling on offense, scoring on just two of their last 22 offensive possessions. Five special teams and defensive scores have kept them at a 1-1 record in the last two games. Now the Giants are heating up with Eli Manning getting another weapon in Odell Beckham Jr. added to the mix. Rashad Jennings may be out this week, but Andre Williams will serve as a lead back just fine. I think the Eagles know that they have to win at home to stay ahead in a suddenly competitive NFC East, but history of covers is on the side of the Giants. Take New York and the points in a close call. PICK: Giants
(Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-3) at ST. LOUIS
Another divisional game this week. Yes, they are making it tough, but let’s keep in mind the story for the Rams. They were competitive with everyone in the division last year, but now they are a little banged up at tailback and they put up 28 points against the Eagles mostly in garbage time (although you never would have known that based on how Philadelphia was letting them back into that game). Austin Davis looks every bit the part of a starting NFL quarterback, but the 49ers are dominating on both sides of the ball. Even ageless Frank Gore is averaging over five yards per carry. Give me San Francisco to win by a touchdown, 27-20. PICK: 49ers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
The last few weeks have not been kind due to intertwined teaser picks, but I just love three teams to win outright, and the teaser possibilities for all of them align very nicely (teasing them down to a 2-point or less favorite).
- NEW ENGLAND (-3) at BUFFALO
- MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
- TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SAN DIEGO (-7) at OAKLAND
- CHICAGO (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- CHICAGO (“FOR THE WIN” +155) at ATLANTA
Teasers:
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- DENVER (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- SAN DIEGO (-1) at OAKLAND
- SEATTLE (-2) vs. DALLAS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- DENVER (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- SAN DIEGO (-1) at OAKLAND
- SEATTLE (-2) vs. DALLAS
- NEW ENGLAND (+3) at BUFFALO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: New England, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, San Diego, Chicago
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-8 (46.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 10.05-10 (50.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-4 (42.9%)
Season
- OVERALL: 37-38-1 (48.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 38.35-53 (42.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 15-17 (46.9%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.