For the Win: Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Week 4 cost me with the Tampa Bay upset of Pittsburgh, which not only cost me a winning week but dropped me from a big “Star win” to under 40%. Not good, but such is life when picking games in the NFL.  So what can you do?  Learn from it (Mike Glennon’s return should have given a little pause, perhaps) and move forward.  So here we go into Week 5, where I see some decent value.  Let’s get started. 

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

(Thursday) GREEN BAY (-9) vs. MINNESOTA
R-E-L-A-X.  No, not Frankie goes to Hollywood, but Aaron Rodgers saying all is well for the Packers.  After four touchdown passes,  I tend to agree.  Now here comes another divisional game, now at home, against the Vikings.  Minnnesota ran well to take down Atlanta last week, but Teddy Bridgewater could be out.  That is the difference here, and I believe the Packers are going to get a double-digit win here in Week 5.   PICK:  Packers

CHICAGO (+3) at CAROLINA
Guess what, Bears fans?  Another road game here with the third road game in four weeks, and still one more next week to come.  Yikes.  The good news?  Chicago’s weakness is against a good run game, and Carolina is pulling guys off of the practice squad just to find someone to carry the ball.  Advantage, Chicago.  I like the Bears to pass better than Cam Newton does and come up with not just the cover but a win, 27-23.  PICK: Bears

CLEVELAND (+2) at TENNESSEE
This game has a very preliminary line of two points because we don’t know who the starting quarterback will be for the Titans.  That is not the matchup that matters the most here.  Tennessee’s ability to stop the run will be the big question with Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell gearing up to run on Sunday to go along with a possible return to action for Ben Tate.  Tennessee has shut down most backs so far this year, but that could change this week.  All in all, I don’t have a strong feel for this one at all, but I think the Browns are the better roster top to bottom, so give me Cleveland and the points.  PICK: Browns

PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs. ST. LOUIS
The Eagles were not going to go undefeated this season, so a loss at San Francisco last week was not the end of the world.  What is more troubling are the injuries to the offensive line.  If LeSean McCoy can finally get on track, Philadelphia should easily win this game going away.  The Rams have a decent defense but their only win came against Tampa Bay.  Give me the Eagles who will view this as a “get well game” before a big matchup with the Giants in Week 6.  PICK: Eagles

ATLANTA (+4.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants tore up Washington last Thursday, but Atlanta has scored the second-most points (Colts) in the NFL after four games.  I think both offenses will put up points and both defenses will not look very good.  That screams “pick ‘em”, and take the points.  PICK: Falcons

TAMPA BAY (+10.5) at NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are way better at home than on the road, and Tampa Bay was very fortunate to get the win in Pittsburgh last week.  The Buccaneers played much better with Mike Glennon as their starter and they also got Doug Martin back.  I think the Saints win this game, but it is too many points.  Saints 31, Buccaneers 21.  PICK: Buccaneers

DALLAS (-5.5) vs. HOUSTON
Those of you who remember Dallas as the .500, 8-8 team every year had better look closer.  This team has one of the best offensive lines and DeMarco Murray putting up 100 yards a game.  Houston is not strong against the run, and only E.J. Manuel miscues afforded the Texans a victory last week (and J.J. Watt helps too).   I think Dallas can get 27 or more points, while Houston struggles to find the end zone more than twice a week.  Dallas 30, Texans 17.  PICK: Cowboys

DETROIT (-6.5) vs. BUFFALO
The Lions are rolling right now with a solid win over the Jets last week, and Buffalo is reeling.  The Bills just swapped out EJ Manuel for Kyle Orton at quarterback, which reeks of desperation.  That said, this has the signs of a trap game for the Lions (non-conference team at home, with a new quarterback – sound familiar to Tampa Bay?) but I have to go with the better team and lineup.  I will take Detroit to win by double digits, but an upset here would not shock me.  PICK: Lions

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. BALTIMORE
This game is a really hard one to pick, and the number (right around a field goal) certainly does not help.  The Ravens just blew out the Panthers at home, but that game was a very emotional one for Baltimore and Steve Smith, Sr. playing against his former team.  Indianapolis has rolled up the most points in the league, but facing Jacksonville and Tennessee will help that effort.  I believe that Indianapolis wins, but the game will be closer than most people think.  Baltimore has the better defense but the Colts have the hotter quarterback.  Take Indianapolis in a close call and contest, 31-27.   PICK: Colts

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) at JACKSONVILLE
I am not going to overthink this one.  Pittsburgh suffered a bad, bad loss at home to Tampa Bay, but Jacksonville is the miracle cure for any team with ailments.  The Steelers win big on the road against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  PICK: Steelers

ARIZONA (+7) at DENVER
Both the Cardinals and Broncos are coming off of a bye week, but it looks to me that Denver is getting all the respect.  Arizona is one of the best teams in the league, even with injuries at quarterback and on defense (and a few suspensions scattered in there, too).  Denver is a solid team without question, but Arizona has better defense and special teams.  I like this game to be very entertaining and closely contested throughout, which means take the points..  PICK: Cardinals

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) vs. KANSAS CITY
Here is the thing that was lost in the close game between San Francisco and Philadelphia last week – the Eagles could do virtually nothing on offense.  All of the 21 points came on special teams plays or from the defense.  The 49ers defense is starting to click, and they will need that in an effort against Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis.  Kansas City just pounded New England on Monday Night Football, but that was at home and the Patriots are not looking so hot right now.  Giving up nearly a touchdown is tough, but I like the 49ers at home to win by about seven points, something like 27-20.  PICK: 49ers

SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Don’t look now, but the Chargers are one of the best teams in the league.  That’s right, they are just one field goal away in Week 1 from being 4-0, where they lost in Arizona 18-17.  Now the Jets come to town with the Chargers struggling to run the ball, but Philip Rivers could not care less against that New York secondary.  I expect another 300-yard game for Rivers as the Chargers win going away.  PICK: Chargers

CINCINNATI (-1) at NEW ENGLAND
Everyone is going to be looking at Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for a rebound at home against the Bengals, but the schedule makers did not make this one easy for New England.  The Patriots played at Kansas City on Monday night, while the Bengals had a bye week.  Ouch.  Now the Bengals will head to Foxboro to try and steal a victory and move to 4-0 and push for a big advantage in home field determination if the Patriots do right their ship and win the AFC East.  I like Giovani Bernard to run a ton on New England and help the Bengals for a convincing, statement-making win with everyone watching them on Sunday Night Football.  PICK: Bengals

(Monday) SEATTLE (-7) at WASHINGTON
Did anyone really watch last Thursday’s debacle for Washington?  They were beat up and in every phase of the game by the Giants, and now Washington has to host Seattle?  I am having trouble understanding why the Seahawks are only favored by seven here, as I think they cover that by halftime.  Seattle win s going away in another Monday Night Football blowout, 34-13.  PICK: Seahawks

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

The last few weeks have not been kind due to intertwined teaser picks, but I just love five teams to win outright, and the teaser possibilities for all of them align very nicely (teasing them down to a 1-point or less favorite). 

I also like three underdogs, who I will take straight up and also “For the Win”.

• CHICAGO (+3) at CAROLINA
• CHICAGO ((“FOR THE WIN” +125) at CAROLINA
• CLEVELAND (+2) at TENNESSEE
• CLEVELAND ((“FOR THE WIN” +125) at TENNESSEE
• ATLANTA (+4.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
• ATLANTA (“FOR THE WIN” +190) at NEW YORK GIANTS
• DETROIT (-6.5) vs. BUFFALO
• PITTSBURGH (-6.5) at JACKSONVILLE
• CINCINNATI (-1) at NEW ENGLAND
• (Monday) SEATTLE (-7) at WASHINGTON

Teasers:

• 6-POINT TEASER:  ATLANTA (+10.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 43.5)

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5-1 ODDS): 
  • SAN DIEGO (-0.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
  • PHILADELPHIA (-1) vs. ST. LOUIS
  • (Monday) SEATTLE (-1) at WASHINGTON

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS): 
  • SAN DIEGO (-0.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
  • PHILADELPHIA (-1) vs. ST. LOUIS
  • (Monday) SEATTLE (-1) at WASHINGTON
  • DETROIT (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs. ST. LOUIS 

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS 

PICKS OF THE WEEK:  Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincinnati, Seattle

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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