Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 3 I fared OK overall, going 9-7 and 4-2 on Best Bets, but the Stars were misaligned by the Green Bay / Detroit game. Too much exposure there and it hurt my results. I’ll try to learn from that. This week looks tougher with tighter matchups and lines and six teams on a bye, so it could be challenging. Let’s get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) WASHINGTON (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Washington kept pace with the high-flying Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, but they fell just short in a 37-34 loss on the road. Now they head home to host another NFC East team in the New York Giants, who just got theifr first win of the season at home over Houston. Rashad Jennings rushed for over 170 yards and helped the Giants control the game, and they will look to do the same – but Kirk Cousins has other plans. I think Washington has too many playmakers on offense and a very underrated defense that should give them a win on Thursday. PICK: Washington
CHICAGO (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
I really do not know what to think about this one. These two historic rivals get together once again, and I could see this game any number of ways. The Packers could bounce back after a bad loss in Detroit and come out with a big offensive night, or they could continue their bad start and look terrible, falling to 1-3 in a big loss. Chicago could continue their two-game win streak with a big home win (their only home game in a stretch of five contests) to move well out in front in the NFC North, or they could have a letdown after a short week after visiting the Jets on Monday. I tend to favor momentum here, and the Bears won, the Packers lost, and the Bears are getting home cooking for the only time for more than a month. Chicago in a close contest and a tough call, 27-24. PICK: Bears
BUFFALO (+3) at HOUSTON
Here comes another game that is hard to pick between a pair of 2-1 teams that likely do not deserve to be 2-1. The Bills have questions at quarterback, a problem shared by the Texans. Both teams want to win with running the ball and defense, and I like Buffalo on the road because they are healthier at tailback and are getting a field goal head start. PICK: Bills
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) vs. TENNESSEE
Let’s not overthink this one. The Colts are playing very well even though they have just one win – losses to Philadelphia and Denver are nothing to be ashamed of, and they probably should have beaten the Eagles at home. Now they just destroyed Jacksonville and get another game at home against a feeble AFC South opponent with Tennessee coming to town. The Titans were dominated by the Bengals in Cincinnati last Sunday, and I do not see them stepping up to compete with the Colts this week. A touchdown looks like a lot, but it won’t be much for Indianapolis to overcome. Colts 34, Titans 16. PICK: Colts
BALTIMORE (-3) vs. CAROLINA
The Ravens lost Dennis Pitta (hip) for the year, but Steve Smith Sr. has been a fantastic addition to the Baltimore passing game. You have to know that he had this Week 4 contest against his former team circled on his calendar, and he will be a big part of the offense for Baltimore against the Panthers. Carolina is banged up at tailback and the Ravens are doing well against the pass, so I expect the Ravens to to control this game and win by at least a touchdown – one of which will be scored by Steve Smith. PICK: Ravens
DETROIT (-1) at NEW YORK JETS
Something doesn’t feel right here. Why are the Lions only favored by a point against the Jets, who looked terrible against the Bears on Monday Night Football? Shouldn’t Calvin Johnson and company tear up this woeful secondary, and the Detroit defense should be dominant again after controlling Aaron Rodgers in Week 3, right? Does anyone expect Geno Smith to pose much of a threat here? I do not get this line, but I told you that I was not going to over think this week. Take Detroit – but be careful of some strangeness here that Las Vegas sharps may know that I cannot see right now. PICK: Lions
PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh dominated a good Carolina team in Charlotte last week, and that is not good news for the Buccaneers, who were clobbered by Atlanta last week in a game that finished at 56-14 and was not even that close. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball all over the Buccaneers on their way to a home victory by a wide margin this week. PICK: Steelers
OAKLAND (+4.5) vs. MIAMI (in London, England)
Now I know that the Raiders are not that good, but they played the Patriots closely last week in a 16-9 loss and are getting closer to finding their first win on the year. I get that many believe that Oakland is a Bottom 5 team, and I tend to agree, but at some point they have to get a victory this year, and I think this week’s matchup against Miami offers a good chance for that win. When I look at Oakland’s upcoming schedule after the Week 5 bye, I have a hard time finding another win until Week 13 against the Rams. That’s a long time to go winless, and I have to think that the Raiders see it the same way. Miami has issues on offense with questions about the offensive line and Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and they just dropped a big game at home to the Chiefs. Give me the Raiders for the upset. PICK: Raiders
SAN DIEGO (-12.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Once again, do not over think these matchups. The Chargers are one of the best teams in the AFC, and they have just one one-point loss to the Cardinals in Week 1 in Arizona that separates them from being a perfect 3-0 including a win over Seattle. Think about that for a moment. Now the 0-3 Jaguars come to town, a team that finds better and better ways to get blown out each week. San Diego has not given up a turnover since Week 1, and I think that trend continues. San Diego could control the ball all game and keep the Jaguars under 10 points – with a possible shutout. San Diego 27, Jacksonville 6. PICK: Chargers
PHILADELPHIA (+5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
This game is projected to be one of the highest scoring games this week, and for good reason. Philadelphia has scored 30+ points in every contest so far this year, and their offense is going to apply a ton of pressure on San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers dropped a second game in a row in Week 3 with a loss at Arizona, and they will be looking for their first home win in their new stadium against Philadelphia. I can see a shootout here and with that in mind, I could easily see either team coming out of this contest with a victory. That screams “Take the points” to me. PICK: Eagles
ATLANTA (-2.5) at MINNESOTA
The Falcons enter Week 4 having one of the best feelings after trouncing Tampa Bay last Thursday. Atlanta is a very quiet 2-1 so far, with a quality win over New Orleans. Minnesota is moving to a rookie quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, and with no Adrian Peterson the Falcons will key on forcing the Vikings into a one-dimensional passing offensive game plan. Atlanta controlled Tampa Bay last week and I expect that the Falcons do more of the same this Sunday. Take Atlanta by more than a field goal, something like 27-17. PICK: Falcons
NEW ORLEANS (-3) at DALLAS
Some might wonder why the 1-2 Saints are favored on the road at 2-1 Dallas, but it goes back simply that New Orleans is the better team than the Cowboys. Dallas will try to run and control the clock, keeping Drew Brees on the sidelines, but the Cowboys just gave up over 300 yards to Austin Davis – so consider that when you wonder if Brees and Jimmy Graham will be able to do what they want to do in the passing game against the Dallas defense. Tony Romo will eventually try and keep pace, but he is more prone to mistakes and Rob Ryan’s defense will apply pressure to force some turnovers. That will ultimately decide this contest in favor of New Orleans. PICK: Saints
(Monday) KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots barely escaped at home against the Raiders, and now they have to go to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City for a Monday Night Football showdown against a Chiefs team that handled Miami exceptionally well in Week 3. Jamaal Charles could be back, but even if it is up to Knile Davis, Kansas City looks to be just fine for this matchup. Getting the Chiefs and points at home in a game that they really need to move to 2-2 in the AFC before a tough game next week in San Francisco feels like the right time to take the home underdog here for the upset. I actually think that Kansas City is the better team right now than New England, who usually figures themselves out about halfway through the regular season. PICK: Chiefs
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
The last few weeks have not been kind due to intertwined teaser picks, but I just cannot get away from two teams that I think are very likely winners – Pittsburgh and Indianapolis.
To minimize my “exposure” should I be wrong here, I am overplaying my other likes a little, so that I can get some love even if I am wrong with those two calls – but even Las Vegas has both Pittsburgh (-360 to -400) and Indianapolis (-330 to -400) as very probable winners this week.
I also like three underdogs, who I will take straight up and also “For the Win”.
- OAKLAND (+4.5) vs. MIAMI (in London, England)
- OAKLAND (“FOR THE WIN” +180) vs. MIAMI (in London, England)
- PHILADELPHIA (+5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
- PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +230) at SAN FRANCISCO
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (“FOR THE WIN” +165) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- BALTIMORE (+3) vs. CAROLINA
- SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- CHICAGO (+7.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- BALTIMORE (+3) vs. CAROLINA
- CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- 6-POINT TEASER: CHICAGO (+7.5) vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (+3) vs. CAROLINA
- SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (+3) vs. CAROLINA
- SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- CHICAGO (+7.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (+3) vs. CAROLINA
- SAN DIEGO (-6.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- CHICAGO (+7.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Philadelphia, Kansas City
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 8.6-15 (36.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-2 (66.7%)
Season
- OVERALL: 24-23-1 (51.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 22.65-31 (42.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 8-11 (42.1%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
