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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Well, last week I did say that Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. Well, my record for the week certainly proved that right, as it was pretty mediocre for all of the games (7-8-1) and even worse on my best picks – but you have to like the outcome of my teasers (68% correct). Not too shabby. None of that matters now for Week 2, so let’s dive in for the next set of games:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) ATLANTA (-6) vs. TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay could have won against St. Louis in a very tight game against the Rams in Week 2, and now they have to turn around on a short week to head to Atlanta for a divisional Thursday Night Football contest. Atlanta was run on quite a bit by Cincinnati last week on the road, and the Buccaneers will try and do the same thing here in Week 3. I expect Matt Ryan to take to the air and play well at home on a national broadcast, with the Falcons winning by at least a touchdown to get their second win of the young season. Falcons 27, Buccaneers 16. PICK: Falcons
SAN DIEGO (+2.5) at BUFFALO
I get it – the Bills are 2-0 and at home, but I believe that the Chargers are not getting quite enough respect here. Sure, the Chargers are only getting two points (and falling), which means on a neutral field San Diego would be favored, but I think that a fully healthy Chargers team would win this game easily. San Diego just beat Seattle, which is no easy feat. Now the Chargers head to New York and have to play a very early game for them, but I think Philip Rivers will get the passing game going and compensate well for the lack of Ryan Mathews. Buffalo will try and run the ball, but Marshawn Lynch was ineffective against the Chargers in Week 2. I like San Diego to win on the road in much nicer weather than the Chargers would get in December in Buffalo. PICK: Chargers
CINCINNATI (-6.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Giovani Bernard is hot right now, but the Atlanta run defense will certainly help your fantasy stats. The Titans were terrible against Dallas’ supposedly bad defense, and Jake Locker barely completed over 50% of his pass attempts. Now the Titans go on the road to face an even stronger Cincinnati defense, which gives me a clear pick here. PICK: Bengals
BALTIMORE (-1) at CLEVELAND
Is Cleveland for real, that is the question. The Browns nearly started the year at 2-0 and beat New Orleans at home last week in a surprise. Cleveland now hosts Baltimore in the Browns’ first divisional contest but Baltimore’s third already, which makes this game very important for the Ravens. Baltimore comes off a big win last Thursday at home against the Steelers, a convincing 26-6 victory that evened their record at 1-1, just like the Browns. Baltimore used a balanced offense last week with Bernard Pierce and Steve Smith dominating production. Cleveland wants to get a second win before their Week 4 bye and they will be all charged up, but I like Baltimore to use the extra rest and momentum coming off of a big win to move to 2-1 both overall and in the division in what should be a very tough and tight game. I like the Ravens by a field goal, 23-20, but a Cleveland win would not shock me. PICK: Ravens
GREEN BAY (+2.5) at DETROIT
This game should be a track meet between two high-powered offenses that have the potential to score a ton of points against the right defenses. Both teams’ defenses gave up 24 points last week, and Green Bay scored 31 against a bad Jets secondary last week while the Lions put up 35 against the Giants in Week 1. That’s pretty much what I expect here as the winning team will need 30 or more, as both squads should get three touchdowns each and have 27 at a minimum when all is said and done. I like Aaron Rodgers to get a win on the road in the first of three consecutive divisional games. It also helps that Green Bay has the better kicker, which might matter towards the end. Packers 37, Lions 34. PICK: Packers
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) at JACKSONVILLE
A battle of winless AFC South teams here in Week 3 with the Colts visiting the Jaguars. This game should not require a ton of analysis – Indianapolis is the far superior team and they cannot afford to fall to 0-3, let alone suffer a loss on the road to the worst team in the division. Jacksonville might get 20 points, but the Colts will break 30. PICK: Colts
NEW ENGLAND (-14) vs. OAKLAND
Another game that does not require much analysis. The Patriots head home for the first time as they host the Raiders in their homecoming game home opener. Oakland has scored 28 points this year, but only seven before garbage time. Did I mention that the Raiders are on a 14-game East Coast losing streak? This one should be over by halftime. PICK: Patriots
MINNESOTA (+10.5) at NEW ORLEANS
The Vikings have had to deal with the media circus created by Adrian Peterson, so they will be glad to play on Sunday on the road down in Louisiana. The Saints head home for their home opener against Minnesota, but their defense has been suspect in both contests so far with 63 points against on the young season. I like the Saints to win the game, but Minnesota can cover 10+ points with Cordarelle Patterson, Greg Jennings and Kyle Rudolph finding space in the New Orleans secondary. Saints win, but not by more than seven, something like 30-23. PICK: Vikings
NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) vs. HOUSTON
The Giants try and get their first win at home against the Texans in Week 3, and they are getting a few points of a head start. New York was leading heading into the fourth quarter last week against the Cardinals, but could not pull out the victory. Meanwhile the Texans went out to Oakland and rolled all over the Raiders for their first win. The game should be close (and ugly) but I will take the home team for the win – but I am not guaranteeing anything in either direction here. I am just taking the home team and the points and playing the percentages. PICK: Giants
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON
The Eagles head home after a big win on the road against Indianapolis on Monday Night Football for their second big comeback win to start the season. Washington heads out on the road with a new starting quarterback in Kirk Cousins, someone that many Washington fans were pleading to get the starting job over Robert Griffin III even before Griffin was injured. Washington did win last week, and believe it or not, wins over Jacksonville count the same as those over Indianapolis – go figure. The Eagles want to move to 3-0 and log their first NFC and divisional win, plus they want to have a solid first half (and lead) on the season. I think they get the job done. PICK: Eagles
DALLAS (-1) at ST. LOUIS
The Cowboys actually are playing good defense – seriously. They are also running the ball effectively with DeMarco Murray, which is another solid way to cover for a suspect defensive squad. The Rams got a big win last week against Tampa Bay, but their quarterback spot is still manned by Austin Davis, their third string guy – so give me Tony Romo on the road for a win. PICK: Cowboys
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) at ARIZONA
The 49ers blew a big lead against the Bears last week at home, and now they have to go on the road and face the Cardinals in an NFC West matchup. Last year I would have said that this was an upset special, but not in 2014. The Cardinals’ defense is not as good as last year due to injuries and suspensions, and Carson Palmer is unlikely to start again this week. San Francisco needs this game against a surprising 2-0 Arizona team, and I think the 49ers get the job done with a big win on the road. PICK: 49ers
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) at MIAMI
Kansas City heads out on the road for the second week in a row after a close loss to the Broncos in Denver last week. Miami dropped a tough divisional game last week in Buffalo and they also lost Knowshon Moreno in the process. Of course, the Chiefs also lost a tailback of their own, one Jamaal Charles. Kansas City has one of the best backup running backs in the league with Knile Davis, who is capable of a big week almost as much as Charles. I think Kansas City is the better team even on the road, and I am getting points. The Chiefs need to get their first win here with two dangerous games (New England at home, San Francisco on the road) before their Week 6 bye. Give me the Chiefs to cover and a strong possible win. PICK: Chiefs
DENVER (+5) at SEATTLE
Seattle lost last week on the road at San Diego, while the Broncos barely held on at home against the Chiefs. This game will be billed as a Super Bowl rematch, but there is just no way a September matchup has the same meaning as one in February. Seattle is arguably the best team in the league and also the best at home, but any time you can get Peyton Manning AND points you just have to take it, no matter the odds. PICK: Broncos
CAROLINA (-2) vs. PITTSBURGH
Carolina has given up the second fewest points (21, Houston 20) including just seven points last week against Detroit. Now the Panthers get a national game at home against the Steelers, but I still have a hard time getting excited for what is supposed to be the best game of the week – especially with Denver facing Seattle in the late afternoon. No matter – give me the home team to win by at least a field goal despite Pittsburgh’s longer week of rest after Thursday Night Football, as they were rolled over by the Ravens last week. I expect more of the same from the Panthers in Week 3. PICK: Panthers
(Monday) CHICAGO (+3) at NEW YORK JETS
The Jets do not have a good pass defense, and the Bears have one of the best passing games in the NFL. Jay Cutler led a huge comeback in San Francisco in the first ever game in new Levi’s Stadium last week, while the Jets blew a big lead in Green Bay (and a comeback effort to boot). Chicago may be suspect against the run, but I like the Bears to keep this close and likely steal another road win. PICK: Bears
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DENVER (+5) at SEATTLE
- SAN DIEGO (“FOR THE WIN” +125) at BUFFALO
- GREEN BAY ((“FOR THE WIN” +125) at DETROIT
- DENVER ((“FOR THE WIN” +200) at SEATTLE
- (Monday) CHICAGO ((“FOR THE WIN” +135) at NEW YORK JETS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+8.5) at DETROIT
- GREEN BAY at DETROIT (OVER 46)
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+9) at NEW YORK JETS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+8.5) at DETROIT
- GREEN BAY at DETROIT (OVER 46)
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+9) at NEW YORK JETS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+8.5) at BUFFALO
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+8.5) at DETROIT
- GREEN BAY at DETROIT (OVER 46)
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+9) at NEW YORK JETS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+8.5) at BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+10.5) at MIAMI
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+8.5) at DETROIT
- GREEN BAY at DETROIT (OVER 46)
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+9) at NEW YORK JETS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+8.5) at BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+10.5) at MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+8.5) vs. HOUSTON
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+8.5) at DETROIT
- GREEN BAY at DETROIT (OVER 46)
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+9) at NEW YORK JETS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+8.5) at BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+10.5) at MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+8.5) vs. HOUSTON
- PHILADELPHIA (-0.5) vs. WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- GREEN BAY (+2.5) at DETROIT
- GREEN BAY at DETROIT (OVER 52)
- KANSAS CITY (+4.5) at MIAMI
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+3) at NEW YORK JETS
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 6-POINT TEASER: GREEN BAY (+2.5) at DETROIT (OVER 46)
PICKS OF THE WEEK: San Diego, Green Bay, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Kansas City, Chicago
Results
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-8 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 5.5-12 (31.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-5 (37.5%)
Season
- OVERALL: 15-16-1 (48.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 14.05-16 (46.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-9 (30.8%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.