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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last week was a very strong one as far as the “Star” bets, but I was just off on the Seattle line (note I had a typo in the “Picks of the Week”, where I picked both Seattle and Green Bay – it was pretty obvious from my other selections that should have read “Seattle and New England” – either way Picks of the Week went 1-1). Thanks to Seattle’s comeback I was over 90% on “Stars” (11.8-1, 92%) so you have to like those numbers. This week is the final game of the year, Super Bowl XLIX, and it is going to be a tough one to call. I do want to thank you for reading this column this season, and I look forward to doing again next fall. Now let's talk about the game, and just for fun I am adding in my favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets.
Let’s get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
NEW EnGland Patriots (EVEn) VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Sunday, February 1st, 6:20PM EST (NBC)
Once again this year we have both #1 seeds from each conference squaring off, and it is the defending champions in Seattle squaring off against New England, a very formidable and balanced team on both sides of the ball. Will it be Tom Brady getting his fourth Lombardi Trophy, or will Seattle become the first team to repeat as champions since those same Patriots? That’s all part of several story lines awaiting for this matchup.
So what will make the differences in this contest? Let's look at the three phases of this matchup:
Patriots Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
This matchup has been the focus of most of the analysis leading up to Super Bowl XLIX. New England has a very good offense that can change from week to week, with LeGarrette Blount rushing for multiple touchdowns in one contest and Tom Brady throwing for over 300 yards and several touchdowns in the next game – and then you might even have both happening like they did in the AFC Championship (sorry Colts fans). Now New England faces the formidable Seattle defense, which can defend both the run and the pass week after week, and they have one of the best secondaries in the league. The Seahawks are contending with both Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas injuries, which will hamper the defense at least a little, if not more, come Sunday night. The Patriots are sure to test the defense in multiple ways early, probing the Seahawks with both the run and the passing game to find out what is working best to move the ball before halftime. Should one be much more effective than the other, expect the Patriots to lean on that phase of their offense and then move back towards the other later in the contest to help build and extend a lead. I expect the Patriots to try and throw more early and then take the air out of the ball (sorry, had to do it) with Blount in the second half.
Seahawks Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Seattle is very likely to adopt portions of prior game plans from teams that fared reasonably well against New England this season. Baltimore was the most recent example, as the Ravens both threw and ran on the Patriots a few weeks ago to build multiple 14-point leads before the Patriots rallied for the victory. Everyone expects the Seahawks to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch early and then set up the play action passing game with Russell Wilson, but I think Seattle flips the script and comes out throwing early to try and set up the run game. Now, I do believe that Wilson will avoid both Brandon Browner (palying against his old team) and Darelle Revis as much as they can, working receivers towards the slot by either targeting TE Luke Willson or (more likely ) moving Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette into an inside release position in an attempt to create a better matchup. Russell Wilson’s ability to find the open receiver and take what the defense gives him will set up Lynch’s ability to run later in the game.
Special Teams
New England gets the nod here with Julian Edelman as a very good kick return option on punts, while Seattle has felt the loss (removal) of Percy Harvin to their return aspect on offense. Doug Baldwin has had trouble holding on to kickoff returns, and Bryan Walters offers next to nothing on punt runbacks. As for the kickers, both Matt Hauschka and Stephen Gostkowski are top notch and have playoff experience, so there is no real advantage when it comes to kicking. Both have big, accurate legs and can kick clutch field goals from most anywhere on the field.
Intangibles
No crowd impact should be expected in Arizona, with Seattle the designated home team and New England playing the role of a road team for Super Bowl XLIX. The key intangibles come down to coaches Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, who are both some of the best minds in the game of football today. I expect both New England and Seattle to offer up new formations, plays and schemes early in the big game, and it will really depend on how both teams react and adjust in real time and at halftime to one another. That “game within the game” will go a long way in determining a winner.
Prediction Time
History tells us that when the #1 defense plays the #1 offense, it is the defense that usually comes out ahead. I went against that trend last year, and I was wrong – but I am risking that again this year. I think that New England is the more dynamic team when it comes to changing and adjusting to changes, and both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick know deep down that their window of opportunity together is closing. With a healthly Rob Gronkowski, New England has the biggest playmaker for either team, and Brady will get him involved early and often. The team that converts more red zone chances to touchdowns instead of field goals will win this one, and I think Gronkowski makes the difference here. Seattle will hope to force more field goals from the Patriots, but if Gronkowski muscles into the end zone twice on Sunday, that will give the game to New England. I actually think that Seattle will have a harder time scoring seven points at a time instead of three, and that shortfall will matter after 60 minutes. I hope that this game will be a close and highly contested game with at least two lead changes in the fourth quarter, but I think that New England may wear down a banged up Seattle defense and win by a bigger margin than most expect.
- Latest Lines: New England Patriots (Even to -1), Over / Under 47.5 to 48 points
- Prediction: New England Patriots 34, Seattle Seahawks 27
- Pick: Patriots
PROPOSITION ("PROP") BETS
Courtesy of www.bovada.lv and Vegasinsider.com.
First, here is a nice sheet that you can use if you are having a Super Bowl party and want to host a prop bet contest:
As for some picks, here are some nice Prop Bets I like for the Super Bowl:
Super Bowl XLIX – Who will score the first touchdown of the game?
- Marshawn Lynch (+550)
- Rob Gronkowski (+650)
- LeGarrette Blount (+900)
This is my favorite prop bet that I have found. All three players are actually favored to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl (Blount is near a 50/50 call at -105, while Gronkowski is -165 (about 60% likely) and Lynch (-200, an amazing 67% likelihood)), so you are taking the three favorites to score a touchdown as the player to score the first one. That seems like a good bet to me, especially with only 5-6 touchdowns expected for the game. An example is listed below as to how to play this one with a good money management strategy:
- $115 on Lynch scoring the first TD
- $100 on Gronkowski
- $75 on Blount
By adjusting your amounts here, you have a nearly exact payout regardless of which player of these three score (Win $457.50 with Lynch, $460 with Gronkowski and $460 with Blount by risking $290 total). That’s a nice return on your investment where you just need one of three favorites to score the first touchdown. Take that and run.
Super Bowl XLIX – Sack Over/Unders
- Rob Ninkovich, NE (Under ½, +110)
- Chandler Jones, NE (Under ½, +110)
- Dont’a Hightower, NE (Under ½, +120)
This one feels like another easy one. New England has exactly ZERO sacks in their two playoff games this year, and I expect the Patriots to do more of a spy technique on Russell Wilson then to try and force a normal amount of pressure up front. Even if one of these guys gets a sack, you win overall as the other two are winners (a net win). Love it.
Super Bowl XLIX – Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?
- Yes (+225)
- No (-190)
Seattle has scored on defense already this playoff season, and both defenses are opportunistic. I like the “Yes” play here and the odds. Note – a fake FG touchdown does NOT count.
Super Bowl XLIX - Will the game go to Overtime?
- Yes (+700)
- No (-1400)
This is a fun proposition here, as this game could come down to the wire. Should it go to overtime, enjoy the extra dose of football with some extra coin in your pocket. I think that there is about a 20% chance of overtime, so throwing a "star" on this one is worth the shot.
Note – I took a look at the player props (yards, rushes, receptions, etc.) and I just did not see a great play to here. I also tend to like MVP props, but there are too many different possibilities this year beyond the usual suspects (both quarterbacks) to have a good advantage play here.
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (+5) vs. SEATTLE (OVER 41.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
* ONE STAR PROPS *
- Super Bowl XLVIII - Will the game go to Overtime? - Yes (+700)
- Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? – Yes (+225)
- First Touchdown of the Game:
- Marshawn Lynch (1.15 stars)
- Rob Gronkowski (1 star)
- LeGarrette Blount (0.75 stars)
- Sack Over/Under – Rob Ninkovich, NE – Under ½ (+110)
- Sack Over/Under – Chandler Jones, NE – Under ½ (+110)
- Sack Over/Under – Dont’a Hightower, NE – Under ½ (+120)
PICKS OF THE WEEK: New England, OVER 47.5 points
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 1-1 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 11.8-1 (92.2%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 1-1 (50%)
Playoffs
- OVERALL: 5-5 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 15.8-23 (40.7%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 3-5 (37.5%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 127-124-5 (50.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 172.65-213-3 (44.8%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 58-60-1 (49.2%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.