Photo: Robert Mayer, USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Last week was a decent one as far as the “Star” bets, but I was just off on the lines.  I did say that using Vegas against themselves and teasing the games was the smart play, and it was – especially in the San Francisco / Seattle game that hit on all four corners of teasing the game (meaning if you teased either team with the Over or Under, you won).  That’s about how I feel again this week, but let’s see where the discussion goes for Super Bowl XLVIII.   Let's talk about the game, and just for fun I am adding in my favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets.

Let’s get started.

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5) vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sunday, February 2nd, 6:20PM EST (FOX)

For the first time in quite a while we have not just the two #1 seeds from each conference but also the #1 defense (Seattle) against the #1 offense (Denver).  Will Peyton Manning get his second Lombardi Trophy, or will Seattle get their first?  That’s all part of several story lines awaiting for this matchup.

So what will make the differences in this contest? Let's look at the three phases of this matchup:

Broncos Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

This has been the focus of most of the analysis leading up to Super Bowl XLVIII.  Denver has scored over 600 points in the regular season, while the Seahawks were a dominant force on defense.  Seattle has been able to get a good pass rush all year long without having to blitz, and their secondary is arguably the best in the NFL.  Those two things will be severely tested by Peyton Manning on Sunday, as he and the Broncos have a ton of weapons in both the passing and running attacks.  Denver has three strong wide receivers (Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker), a very solid tight end in Julius Thomas (not to mention Jacob Tamme) and Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball both coming out of the backfield.  Seattle will likely cover Thomas with Richard Sherman, leaving their other options to “pick their poison” amongst Peyton’s other options.  I think that Manning will be able to read the defense and get the ball to the open man, whomever it is on a given play, and move the ball through the air.  The solid passing game will open up the running attack for Moreno and Ball, and Denver will push Seattle’s defense all game long.

Seahawks Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Seattle is very likely to adopt portions of prior game plans from teams that fared reasonably well against Denver this season.  San Diego ran the ball a lot on Denver, and I expect Marshawn Lynch to see a heavy workload all game.  Jacksonville did similar things too, and Russell Wilson will be asked to manage the game and take a few shots here and there to keep the Denver defense honest.   The Broncos have lost some starters (Chris Harris, Von Miller) but their understudies have stepped up well. The big question here is how Wilson will be able to fare against Denver in the passing game, and if Percy Harvin can contribute a few big plays.   It could be a tall order, but if Wilson hits on a few big shots (or if the Seahawks force turnovers on defense, setting up short fields to convert) then Seattle could hang very tough with Denver.

Special Teams

Denver has a good return game,behind Trindon Holliday, but this phase of the game could be won by Seattle.  Kicker Matt Prater has been solid all year long and he gets a lot of love across the league – thanks to Denver’s prolific scoring this year – but Matt Hauschka has been strong all year long too.   Seattle is a much tougher place to kick, and the ball is likely to be very cold and stiff in the Meadowlands with gametime temperatures near freezing.  Percy Harvin is the wild card here, as again if he gets rolling and breaks off a big return (or even if Doug Baldwin does it) then the field position could be a major difference.

Intangibles

No crowd impact should be expected in the Meadowlands, with Denver the designated home team and Seattle playing the role of a road team for Super Bowl XLVIII. The key intangible comes down to the weather, which everyone is talking about with this game being played outdoors, but I expect that to be a non-factor, with kickoff temperatures expected in the high 30s to lower 40s.  

Prediction Time

History tells us that when the #1 defense plays the #1 offense, it is the defense that usually comes out ahead.  I am bucking that trend, however, as I just cannot see Peyton Manning and all of his weapons falling victim to Seattle here.  With two weeks to prepare, Manning will find weaknesses and tendencies to exploit and get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, pushing the scoreboard towards 30 points for Denver.  Seattle will struggle to break 20, even with a very impressive defense and ground game.  The lack of playmakers outside of Harvin for Seattle and the depth of offensive talent for Denver tips the scale for me towards the Broncos.

• Latest Lines: Denver Broncos -2.5, Over / Under 47.5 points
• Prediction: Denver Broncos 27, Seattle Seahawks 20
• Pick: Broncos

PROPOSITION ("PROP") BETS

Courtesy of www.bovada.lv and Vegasinsider.com.

First, here is a nice sheet that you can use if you are having a Super Bowl party and want to host a prop bet contest:

Bovada Prop Bet checklist

As for some picks, here are some nice Prop Bets I like for the Super Bowl:

Super Bowl XLVIII - Will the game go to Overtime?

• Yes (+600)
• No (-900)

This is a fun proposition here, as this game could come down to the wire. Should it go to overtime, enjoy the extra dose of football with some extra coin in your pocket. I think that there is about a 20% chance of overtime, so throwing a "star" on this one is worth the shot.

Super Bowl XLVIII - Super Bowl MVP

• Peyton Manning (11-10)
• Russell Wilson (15-4)
• Marshawn Lynch (15-4)
• Percy Harvin (16-1)
• Knowshon Moreno (20-1)

Those of you who have followed “For the Win” know that I normally clean up on this bet, as usually the quarterbacks win every year (10 of the last 15 and 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls).  So why not do it again?  Two words – Peyton Manning.  He is virtually a lock at 11-10 odds (meaning that you get next to nothing on your bet, about even money).  So rather than going for the two quarterbacks, I like the potential stories for Knowshon Moreno (hometown kid from New Jersey, he could run it in twice) or Percy Harvin (big plays and explosions as a kick returner could do it).  I will say that if you like Seattle to win the Super Bowl, I would rather bet Russell Wilson (15/4), Marshawn Lynch (15/4) and Harvin (16/1) than taking the Seattle money line at around +135. 

Total Receptions – Eric Decker (DEN)

• Over 4.5  (-120)
• Under 4.5  (EVEN)

I expect Richard Sherman to be draped all over Demaryius Thomas the entire game, which means Peyton Manning will be looking elsewhere to throw.  With Decker (Over/Under 4.5) at better odds than Julius Thomas (Over/Under 5 catches) and Wes Welker (also 5), I like Decker for the over here.

Super Bowl XLVIII – Number of times Peyton Manning says “Omaha”?

• Over 27.5 (-135)
• Under 27.5 (-105)

I love this over here.  Peyton Manning normally says “Omaha” when the play clock is down to 2-3 seconds, so it is almost every snap.

Super Bowl XLVII – Shortest field goal of the game?

• Over 24.5 (-120)
• Under 24.5 (EVEN)

I love this over here as well, as I don’t think teams will stop pushing for a touchdown when inside the five.

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

• None this week.

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• None this week.

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• 6-POINT TEASER:  SEATTLE (+8.5) vs. DENVER (OVER 41)
• 6-POINT TEASER:  DENVER (+3.5) vs. SEATTLE (OVER 41)

* ONE STAR PROPS *

• Super Bowl XLVIII - Will the game go to Overtime? - Yes (+600)
• Super Bowl XLVIII – MVP – Percy Harvin (+1600)
• Super Bowl XLVIII – MVP – Knowshon Moreno (+2000)

• Shortest field goal of the game – Over 24.5  (-120) 

** TWO STAR PROPS **

• Total Receptions by – Eric Decker (DEN) – Over 4.5 (-120)

*** THREE STAR PROPS ***

• Number of times Peyton Manning says “Omaha” – Over 27.5  (-135)

PICKS OF THE WEEK:  Denver

Last Week

• OVERALL: 0-2 (0%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 5-4 (55.6%)
• PICKS OF THE WEEK: 0-1 (0%)

Playoffs

• OVERALL: 4-6 (40%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 19-22 (46.3%)
• PICKS OF THE WEEK: 3-3 (50%)

Regular Season

• OVERALL: 122-126-8  (49.2%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 181.45-125-11 (59.2%)
• PICKS OF THE WEEK: 52-45-6 (53.6%)

As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.