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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Yet another average week in Week 17, which goes right along with the rest of the regular season for me as I hovered right around .500 all year long. Needless to say, this has been a tough year. Now, for those of you who have stuck with me for years know that I tend to do very well in the playoffs, so hopefully that trend continues. So let’s end this on a positive note, shall we? Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Saturday, 4:30PM Eastern, ESPN) CAROLINA (-4.5) vs. ARIZONA (Over/Under = 37.5-38)
Carolina has been hot of late, winning enough down the stretch to get themselves almost to .500 (7-8-1) and winning what have been essentially playoff games for the past several weeks as a loss would have eliminated the Panthers for the past two weeks. Both Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart have been playing well in December, and now they get to host the reeling Cardinals to start the postseason on Saturday. That short week is key for Arizona, as they still are hoping that Drew Stanton is healthy enough to start the Wild Card contest. Think about that for a moment – the Cardinals are HOPING for Drew Stanton to start – that’s how bad it is for the Arizona quarterback situation. Don’t forget that Andre Ellington is out too, so Arizona is a shell of what they were back in October and November. Carolina will get enough done against the Cardinals, who will struggle to put up points all day long. Panthers 23, Cardinals 13. PICK: Panthers
(Saturday, 8:00PM Eastern, NBC) PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. BALTIMORE (Over/Under = 46.5-47)
The Ravens have not looked very good of late, but they got the job done in Week 17 that they needed to with a win over Cleveland – but it was not pretty. Baltimore struggled for more than a half against Conner Shaw at quarterback for the Browns, and were tied 3-3 for far too long against Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Steelers were taking care of business at home against the Bengals, winning 27-17 but losing a key part of their offense with the hyperextended knee of Le’Veon Bell. Everyone is going to be looking at this rivalry and how close it has been in the past between these two teams that really don’t like one another and also key on Bell’s injury – which will lead many to take the Ravens. That’s a mistake. Baltimore’s offense is stuck in neutral and they still have a porous secondary, which is what Ben Roethlisberger will exploit on Saturday night. The last time these two met, Roethlisberger had six touchdown passes. This one will be a big win for the Steelers, as Joe Flacco cannot keep up with a hot Pittsburgh passing game. Steelers 34, Ravens 20. PICK: Steelers
Sunday, 1:00PM Eastern, CBS) CINCINNATI (+4) at INDIANAPOLIS (Over/Under = 49)
Indianapolis has not been the same offensive team since T.Y. Hilton was injured. Andrew Luck is an immensely talented quarterback, but he needs some weapons and playmakers to move the ball down the field, especially in the postseason. When I picture the Cincinnati plan for this contest, I think back to how the Bengals planned to disrupt Peyton Manning two weeks ago. While Luck may not throw four interceptions, he might struggle under pressure from a talented Bengals defensive front and an underrated secondary. Cincinnati will look to manage the clock by running the ball with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, which will keep Luck off the field and also minimize the risk of Andy Dalton imploding in the playoffs (again). I like Cincinnati to be in this game all day long, double cover Hilton and put pressure on Luck. Hill and Bernard will eventually be the difference makers, especially against a one-dimensional Indianapolis offense that has not been able to consistently run the ball since the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw. PICK: Bengals
(Sunday, 4:00PM Eastern, FOX) DETROIT (+7) at DALLAS (Over/Under = 48-49)
This comes down to the points for me here, as I am not at all confident that the Lions can win this one. Detroit’s Matthew Stafford has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road, and the prospects of beating the Cowboys in Dallas do not look great. DeMarco Murray will be up against a tough front seven from the Lions, who are susceptible to the passing game on the defensive side of the ball. That points to bigger contributions from Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Stafford will need to play well too, and he will need big games from both Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson. Joique Bell will pound the ball between the tackles and try and keep the offense balanced, and I can see this being a shootout-type contest. Las Vegas has this game at around 49 points and a projected score of Dallas 28, Detroit 21, and I can see that being close to the answer here. Dallas also has the better kicking game, but I like the return game for the Lions. I think Dallas wins, but seven points is too much for me. I will take the Lions to cover but Dallas to win, 27-24. PICK: Lions
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- CAROLINA (-4.5) vs. ARIZONA
- CINCINNATI (+4) at INDIANAPOLIS
- DETROIT (+7) at DALLAS
FOR THE WINS:
- CINCINNATI (“FOR THE WIN” +180) at INDIANAPOLIS
TEASERS:
4-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- CINCINNATI (+10) at INDIANAPOLIS
- PITTSBURGH (+3) vs. BALTIMORE
- CAROLINA (+1.5) vs. ARIZONA
- DALLAS (-1) vs. DETROIT
5-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- CINCINNATI (+10) at INDIANAPOLIS
- PITTSBURGH (+3) vs. BALTIMORE
- CAROLINA (+1.5) vs. ARIZONA
- DALLAS (-1) vs. DETROIT
- CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 43)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. BALTIMORE
3-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (9:5 ODDS):
- CINCINNATI (+10) at INDIANAPOLIS
- PITTSBURGH (+3) vs. BALTIMORE
- CAROLINA (+1.5) vs. ARIZONA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Carolina
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 16.6-16 (50.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 1-4 (20%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 127-124-5 (50.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 172.65-213-3 (44.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 58-60-1 (49.2%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
