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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 14 was yet another middle-of-the-road performance despite going 4-3 in my Picks of the Week. The season is winding down, and teams are getting desperate for wins. That should clear things up for picking some games in December, but we shall see. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) ST. LOUIS (-2.5) vs. ARIZONA
Thursday games are winding down, and just in time. The players are getting tired and I think a lot of football fans are losing interest in many of these contests. Granted last week’s Dallas-Chicago tilt was entertaining, but this one looks like a snoozefest. Both defenses are Top 10 options this week, which can make IDP players love this one, but most everyone else will lose interest. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, something in the 16-13 type of a game. The Rams are at home and favored, and they have done well so far against the tough NFC West. This is right about the time where Arizona should start to trail off with Drew Stanton losing steam. PICK: Rams
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at ATLANTA
Do not let the final score from Monday fool you – Atlanta was outclassed by a wide margin before halftime by the Packers. Pittsburgh has been an up and down team all year too, but for me this one boils down to three things. First, Atlanta cannot stop the run, and Le’Veon Bell is on fire. Second, Julio Jones is banged up, which is never good for Matt Ryan. And finally, Ben Roethlisberger has had some seriously big games in the second half of this season, and he could easily go off here in a dome. I will take the Steelers in another must win game. PICK: Steelers
BALTIMORE (-13.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
You know, those Vegas guys are pretty good. I had this game at between one and two touchdowns of a point spread, and I thought at 14 might be too many – and look at that 13.5 number coming right in about where it should be. Do not fall for that big number – the Ravens have been feasting on bad teams all year, and demolishing them to help boost their 8-5 record. With two tough games left for the Ravens (at Houston, hosting the Browns), they must win this game to keep up in a highly contested AFC playoff race. Jacksonville continues to be a team getting closer, but they cannot put together a winning formula unless the other teams help them out. I do not think Baltimore does anything of the kind this week. Ravens by more than two touchdowns, 31-13. PICK: Ravens
GREEN BAY (-5) at BUFFALO
A short week and on the road for the Packers here, but so what? The Bills are rapidly falling off the map despite the best efforts of Kyle Orton. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an out of this world level and the Bills cannot keep pace (few teams can). Green Bay by more than a touchdown once again as the Packers stay out in front in the NFC North with the #1 NFC seed in their sights. PICK: Packers
CAROLINA (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
This game has all the makings of a certifiable mess, as both teams could be making changes at quarterback. Cam Newton is out due to a car accident, leaving Derek Anderson to start. Anderson had a good game way back in Week 1 against Tampa Bay (250 yards, 2 TDs), so he is a reasonable starter to go to for the Panthers. Carolina, despite a weak 4-8-1 record, is still in the playoff hunt, although with that record they really do not deserve it. Even in a woeful NFC South, Tampa Bay is out of the running at 2-11. This had all the makings of a solid win for the Panthers before Newton’s injury, as Carolina was favored by 5.5 or 6 points and now it has shrunk down to just three. That’s good news for those who like the Panthers, and I think Anderson will get the ball in the hands of Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin just fine. Throw in that Jonathan Stewart just had his best game in four years and this should be a solid win for Carolina. PICK: Panthers
CLEVELAND (+1) vs. CINCINNATI
Get ready for the Johnny Football era to begin, as Johnny Manziel gets his first career start on Sunday. Saddle up, get your popcorn ready and enjoy the ride. The Bengals will give the Browns a good game here for sure as Cincinnati is still in first place, but after getting blown out and run over by Pittsburgh last week despite A.J. Green’s huge day you have to wonder if that first place status is only temporary. The Browns nearly beat Andrew Luck and the Colts last week, and that was despite Brian Hoyer’s inabilities at quarterback. The Browns scored twice on defense – and they are the only franchise to lose in the past 50 games in the NFL where a team has scored two or more times on defense (Cleveland blew that head start twice). So to sum up – Cleveland’s defense is playing well, Crowell is running well, and they are getting more talent under center. Throw in that the Bengals defense was embarrassed last week and I see Cleveland pulling the slight upset at home. PICK: Browns
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. HOUSTON
Normally I compliment Vegas when they set a line, but I think they missed a little on this one. Had the spread been 7.5, I might have thought more about Houston, but I love Andrew Luck at home against a Texans team that he has a very good track record against (4-1 all time, 4-0 in the last four, 12:2 TD:INT ratio, 371 yards, 3:1 last matchup). The score from earlier this year (33-28, Colts) did not really reflect how dominant the Colts were in Texas early in that game. J.J. Watt and company led a nice comeback attempt, but the game was really all Indianapolis. I expect the Colts to put the hammer down early and throw a ton to keep Arian Foster off the field as much as possible and try and build another big, early lead. That should lock up the AFC South for Indianapolis and get them closer to a potential bye if Denver or New England stumble down the stretch. PICK: Colts
OAKLAND (+10) at KANSAS CITY
You might think that this pick is all about the last matchup, and you would be partially right. Latavius Murray torched Kansas City a few weeks back in his big debut as a feature back, but that Thursday game was a short week for a traveling Chiefs team that had to go to Oakland on a big, emotional night for the Raiders who were gunning for their first win before a ton of alumni there to celebrate the glory days of the Oakland Raiders. That’s all well and good, but this game is in Kansas City, so Oakland will not have that big lift for this one – but they do have their recent upset over the 49ers to draw on from last week. The real decider for me here was watching the ineptitude of the Chiefs in the final minute last week against Arizona, where Kansas City had the ball and trailed by just a field goal, but Andy Reid’s horrible clock management and the inability of Alex Smith to throw down the field at all to move the chains was on full display. I think the Chiefs are good enough to win (even if Jamaal Charles is not 100% healthy), but I like Oakland to keep this under 10 points. PICK: Raiders
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. MIAMI
Okay, I am back to complimenting Vegas. At under 7, this would have been a no-brainer, but at 7.5, it is a pretty good line. Miami usually plays close with New England, but after expecting San Diego to hold their own and stay within a few points of the Patriots (and maybe even winning), well, I do not see that happening with the Dolphins. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski aside, the Patriots are hammering the run with Blount and dominating on defense right now. Miami struggled with the Jets two weeks ago and were eventually steamrolled by the Ravens at home last week. This feels like a matchup of a team peaking (Patriots) against a Miami team that is fading quickly. Always fade the fading. Patriots 31, Miami 16. PICK: Patriots
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON
I am not going to pick Washington with any point spread head start the rest of the year, even against a sub-.500 team like the Giants. Living close enough to see commercials trying to sell tickets to come see Washington play is downright laughable and sad all at once for a franchise that used to take pride on the inability for anyone to get tickets – and now they cannot even keep a quarterback healthy. Washington will lose the rest of the way with three divisional games to play, including hosting the Eagles and Cowboys. Odell Beckham Jr. will have another field day at home and top 100 yards with at least one touchdown. Giants by a good margin, as long as they avoid terrible mistakes (which is a big if lately). PICK: Giants
DENVER (-3.5) at SAN DIEGO
Denver seems to be in a dogfight every week of late, but the best of Peyton Manning seems to come out against both Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. San Diego was completely stifled on offense by the Patriots last week, and I expect Denver to lay out the same game plan at the Chargers this week. Denver clinches the AFC West with a win here, but they are more concerned about staying in the #1 or #2 spot in the AFC and maintaining at least a bye with New England. Two winnable games remain (at Cincinnati next Monday before hosting the Raiders), so there is a chance that Denver overlooks the Chargers, but I doubt it. A win by San Diego breathes life into the Chargers even with two tough games left on the road (SF, KC) to close out the season. I think San Diego is done after this game, and Denver is happy to be the ones to bury them for this season. I also like Julius Thomas to do well, just as Gronkowski did last week, to get back on track for Denver. Broncos 34, Chargers 20. PICK: Broncos
NEW YORK JETS (-1) at TENNESSEE
Yes, you read that right – I just picked the Jets to win a game on the road. Here’s how I see this one – Chris Johnson returns to Tennessee feeling good after two solid games, and the Jets want to run the ball against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Jake Locker is back as the starter for the Titans, who are without Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright has a broken hand. Even with a terrible pass defense, the Jets should be able to hold on for a narrow win here – and it makes even more sense as Jets fans will be wanting them to lose to get a better draft pick. What more could you want for the Jets than to find yet another way to disappoint their fans once again? Jets 17, Titans 13. PICK: Jets
DETROIT (-7.5) vs. MINNESOTA
I know I keep picking favorites, but these teams are favorites for a reason. Minnesota may be 6-7 and riding a two game winning streak, but they just beat Carolina and the Jets – and they needed overtime to beat New York. Throw in that they had three defensive scores in these two contests to get them to winning positions and I can see that the Lions will want to protect the ball and keep giving the Vikings poor field position all day. The Detroit defense can be beaten through the air (see Mike Evans last week), but Teddy Bridgewater is no Aaron Rodgers. Detroit must keep winning to stay within striking distance of Green Bay, and they will do just that this week, and in convincing fashion with both Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson both healthy again. PICK: Lions
SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
These two teams do not like each other, and if you could ask Pete Carroll what he would do if the 49ers were on their last gasp, he would love to finish them off himself. That is exactly what the Seahawks have the chance to do on Sunday, with San Francisco having lost twice in a row to fall back to 7-6 after losses to the Seahawks and (gasp) Oakland last week. The 49ers offense has gone missing, while Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle defense is just heating up. Seattle at home with a defense and Lynch raring to go means the 49ers are going to be in for a long day on Sunday. Seattle 27, San Francisco 13. PICK: Seahawks
PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. DALLAS
Welcome to the NFC East playoff game, where the winner most likely is your divisional champion. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker after beating Dallas in Dallas on Thanksgiving, but a win by the Cowboys here would set them one game up with two to play. These two teams are in bad spots in the rest of the NFC as they have quality losses for the most part (both lost to Arizona and San Francisco; Dallas lost to the Eagles and Washington; Philadelphia lost to Seattle and Green Bay), but they are still losses and they are all within the NFC. That means they could be on the outside looking in for the Wild Card hunt, so both teams must go all out on Sunday. That should make for a very entertaining Sunday Night Football matchup. Drawing on the recent history, you have to like Philadelphia at home after a convincing 33-10 win less than a month ago, so that is where I will hang my hat. PICK: Eagles
(Monday) NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) at CHICAGO
What has happened to these two teams? Both had solid playoff hopes, and both have fallen on hard times of late. Chicago is completely out of the hunt at 5-8 and with Brandon Marshall out for the year. That helps the reeling Saints, who still have a shot at the postseason even with a 5-8 record thanks to how bad their division turned out to be this year. A win here sets up a Week 16 home game against Atlanta that could be for the division (the Saints travel to Tampa Bay to end the year). Drew Brees has gone stone cold of late, but he could heat up in frigid Chicago thanks to the Bears’ secondary that is amongst the worst in th league this year. Not the easiest of calls, but give me a team with a playoff shot over one playing out the string. PICK: Saints
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- CAROLINA (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
- CLEVELAND (+1) vs. CINCINNATI
- INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. HOUSTON
- OAKLAND (+10) at KANSAS CITY
- DALLAS (“FOR THE WIN” +160) at PHILADELPHIA
TEASERS:
4-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) at BUFFALO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. MIAMI
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
5-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) at BUFFALO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. MIAMI
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at ATLANTA
6-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) at BUFFALO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. MIAMI
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- CAROLINA (+3) vs. TAMPA BAY
7-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (9-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) at BUFFALO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. MIAMI
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- CAROLINA (+3) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-0.5) vs. WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-5) at BUFFALO
- (Monday) NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) at CHICAGO
3-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) at BUFFALO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. MIAMI
- INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) vs. HOUSTON
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Carolina, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Oakland, New Orleans
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-8 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 9.6-10 (49.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Season
- OVERALL: 103-101-4 (50.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 139.95-169-3 (45.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 51-48-1 (51.5%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.