For the Win: Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. 

Week 13 was another middle-of-the-road performance despite going 9-7 overall for the games and 6-4 in my Picks of the Week for the second week in a row.  The season is winding down, and teams are getting desperate for wins.  That should clear things up for picking some games in December, but we shall see.  Let’s get started:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

(Thursday)  DALLAS (-3.5) vs. CHICAGO
The Cowboys looked bad last Thursday against the Eagles, but the Bears did not look much better against Detroit once the Lions got rolling.  Chicago offers up a bad defense while Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  I expect DeMarco Murray to run early and often, helping Dallas to build an early lead and forcing Jay Cutler to throw (and the Bears to abandon the run game with Matt Forte).  That will lead to turnovers for an opportunistic Cowboy defense and a large lead for Dallas.   The Cowboys need this game desperately to try and keep pace with Philadelphia as those two square off in Week 15.   Dallas is playing for their playoff lives, while Chicago is playing out the season.  Give me the team with much more motivation.  PICK:  Cowboys

PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at CINCINNATI
Quite the clash here in the crowded AFC North with the 7-5 Steelers visiting the first place 8-3-1 Bengals.  Both teams had disappointing showings last week, even though Cincinnati edged the Buccaneers by one point on the road last week.  The Steelers are far more desperate here and their offense is at least clicking, while I cannot say the same about Cincinnati.  Andy Dalton threw three interceptions to Tampa Bay last week and they gave up the best performance by Doug Martin in recent memory.  I like Le'Veon Bell to run well and Ben Roethlisberger to outscore the Bengals to get a much needed AFC North win to further tighten up the most competitive division in the NFL.  Steelers 27, Bengals 20.   PICK:  Steelers

ST. LOUIS (-2.5) at WASHINGTON
Last week the Rams won 52-0 and Washington gave up 49 points.  Before I predict a 101-0 final here, I will say that the Rams are not the Colts, but Washington is much closer to Oakland than they want to admit.  The Rams are likely just playing out the string here at 5-7, but Washington is far worse at 3-9 and the three victories are over two other hapless teams (Jacksonville, Tennessee) and a big rival in Dallas.  The Rams have several quality wins and they will easily cover a field goal.   St. Louis 27, Washington 17.  PICK:  Rams

NEW YORK GIANTS (EVEN) at TENNESSEE
Two bad teams square up in Tennessee this week with the Giants traveling to visit the Titans.  Tennessee was just embarrassed by Ryan Fitzpatrick’s six touchdown game last week while the Giants blew another big lead and lost to Jacksonville.  This is like choosing between brussel sprouts and cauliflower here – I would choose Alabama if I could – but I can’t here.   When I look at the talent here, I have to like Odell Beckham and Eli Manning against Tennessee’s defense, plus Rashad Jennings should have a great game against the Titans as well.  Give me the better offensive lineup against a bad defense and I will hope the Giants do not implode yet again.   PICK:  Giants

NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) vs. CAROLINA
The Saints just beat Pittsburgh on the road, winning (and outlasting) the Steelers 35-32 in a game that was not even as close as that sounds.  Carolina was just shown up in Minnesota by the Vikings.  If that is not enough for you, the Saints head home to face a weak opponent that they beat in Week 9 in Carolina, 28-10.  Drew Brees is hot and he was not even able to get Jimmy Graham involved last week.  I expect Graham to score one, possibly two touchdowns as the Saints try and keep pace with Atlanta (who they play in Week 16) in a weak NFC South.  Saints by 14 or more, something like 34-17.    PICK:  Saints

MINNESOTA (-5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
1983 called, they want their offensive game plans back from Rex Ryan.  I saw that Jets offense against Miami a few years ago when I was coaching little league football.   Only eight pass attempts before the final drive?  Really?  The Vikings are only 5-7 but they are starting to get their team squared up after having to deal with suspending their best player this year and then throwing Teddy Bridgewater out there every week for some on the job training.  The Jets are a train wreck and the Vikings will beat another bad opponent here by at least a touchdown.   PICK:  Vikings

BALTIMORE (+3) at MIAMI
This game is one that everyone should be tracking, as I think the winner of this contest gets into the AFC playoffs.   I can easily see either team winning here, as Miami just gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Jets on Monday Night Football but still managed to beat a bad team that they needed to win against – but it does foreshadow a good performance by Justin Forsett this week.  Baltimore just lost at home to a very underrated San Diego team, but the Ravens also went to New Orleans and beat the Saints.  I think that Baltimore is a good and competitive team that has feasted a few times against weak competition, but they are right there with the good teams and can hold their own on offense.  The question for the Ravens is their secondary, and the question I have for Miami is if Ryan Tannehill can take advantage of it.  I see this game as a lot of running for Baltimore and lots of passing attempts for Tannehill and turnovers will decide this one.  Too close to call for me, so I will take the points in a game I would avoid in Vegas this week.  PICK:  Ravens

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) at CLEVELAND
While everyone is going to be wondering who if and when Johnny Manziel will see action again (Brian Hoyer is slated to start this week), the Indianapolis Colts are working on winning the AFC South and trying to get a bye week if they can.  The Colts have three road games to go (Cleveland, Dallas, Tennessee) and a home contest against the Texans to close out the year – all winnable games for Indianapolis.  Andrew Luck will have his team focused to take care of business against a Cleveland team that is not in the same caliber of the Colts.   PICK:  Colts

DETROIT (-9.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
The Lions fell behind the Bears early on Thanksgiving, but then they stepped up and won a game that they had to win to stay in the playoff hunt.  Now they have a few extra days of rest before hosting Tampa Bay, a team that has put up good fights of late against Cincinnati and Chicago.  Detroit knows that they have to keep winning to keep pace with Green Bay to set up a big seasonal finale in Lambeau for what could be a playoff game in Week 17.  The Lions are focused now and they need to be for a playoff push.  I will always side with those franchises this time of year.  I think they win handily, 31-13.  PICK:  Lions

HOUSTON (-4.5) at JACKSONVILLE
The Texans are the team that will not die this season.  Quarterback change?  No problem.  Another quarterback change?  No problem.  Having to use your best defensive player on offense – works out fantastically.  A different running back to start?  No problem.  The team is 6-6 and on the outside of the playoffs looking in, but all they can do is win the games in front of them and hope for the best.  With two games left against Jacksonville sandwiched around games with the Colts and Ravens, the Texans have to beat the Jaguars to have any realistic shot at any postseason chances.  As for Jacksonville, they are getting better, but they were clearly lucky to beat the Giants thanks to turnovers and defensive scoring plays.  You cannot rely on that week after week.   I like how Jacksonville is starting to play better, but the Texans are the better team on both sides of the ball and they should win by at least a touchdown.   PICK:  Texans

DENVER (-10) vs. BUFFALO
This one comes down to the points, as I certainly expect Denver to win over Buffalo at home this week.  The Bills are 7-5 and in the playoff hunt, but Denver at 9-3 wants to stay ahead of San Diego in the division and push for both a bye and possibly the top seed in the AFC.  I am struggling for a recipe where the Bills are competitive here, unless the defense forces some turnovers.  Peyton Manning has overcome recent slow starts but he took control last week in Kansas City and kept a solid lead in a tough stadium.   The Bills will have to rely on Kyle Orton to keep pace, and his receivers are very much lacking after Sammy Watkins, who may not be 100% this week.  I like Denver to jump out to a fast start and big lead early and coast to a double-digit victory.  I see it as Denver 31, Bills 17.  PICK:  Broncos

KANSAS CITY (+1) at ARIZONA
The wheels look like they are coming off for the Cardinals.  Drew Stanton looked terrible last week against Atlanta, and Arizona was limited to one dimension after Andre Ellington was injured and forced from the game.   The Chiefs were behind quickly last Sunday against Denver and Jamaal Charles was minimized, but I do not expect that to be the case this week.  Kansas City does not have a Julio Jones to offer, but Charles and the Chiefs defense should be enough to get the win this week.   PICK:  Chiefs

PHILADELPHIA (-1) vs. SEATTLE
This is a great matchup between two teams considered as likely playoff teams in the NFC.   Both teams played last Thursday on Thanksgiving, and they dominated the Cowboys and 49ers, respectively.  Seattle has not given up a touchdown in two weeks, and you can bet that Chip Kelly will want to break that streak as quickly as possible on Sunday to get in the heads of the Seahawks.  The Eagles have given up big performances to opposing quarterbacks this season, and I think Russell Wilson will have to win the game for Seattle if they are going to get the victory here.  This is a clear toss-up game but I will take the better offense to top the better defense – and I know that did not work last February, but I think Chip Kelly can figure out a way to get a big win here.  This is too close to call, but since I have to decide, give me the home team, 27-24.   PICK:  Eagles

SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) at OAKLAND
San Francisco looked bad against Seattle last week at home, but do you know what quickly solves offensive woes?  A game against the Raiders, that’s what.  Oakland was just shut out by the Rams 52-0 in an embarrassing effort.  San Francisco needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I think that this is an in-game, in-stadium audition for Jim Harbaugh to be the coach of the Raiders next year.  I expect a statement game by the 49ers who will destroy Oakland by running the ball early and often with Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and also Colin Kaepernick and coast to a victory.  San Francisco 37, Oakland 3.   PICK:  49ers

SAN DIEGO (+3.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Very quietly, the Chargers are 8-4 and are just a win or two away from being the top seed in the AFC.  Do not laugh, as they face the Patriots and Broncos the next two weeks.  San Diego has the toughest remaining schedule (SF and KC in Weeks 16 and 17, both on the road) so this is a put up or shut up time for the Chargers.  Philip Rivers just led the team into Baltimore to get a big win against the Ravens, and they have to keep that level of play up as they face some of the best teams in the NFL and AFC over the final four weeks.  New England is regarded by many as a Top 3 NFL team right now, but they just lost to Green Bay in Green Bay and struggled to move the ball with efficiency against the Packers.  This game is going to be very entertaining, and I will take a home underdog that is 8-4 on the year with a big chip on their shoulder.   PICK:  Chargers

(Monday) GREEN BAY (-11.5) vs. ATLANTA
If ESPN pitches this game as a battle between two first place teams, I will have to laugh.  There is no comparison between these two teams as the Packers are a top NFL team right now and Atlanta is struggling at 5-7.   Granted the Falcons just beat Arizona last week but that was at home and this is a road game at night in Green Bay, which has proven to be the toughest place to visit this season.  I can see the Falcons trying to keep pace with Matt Ryan throwing often to Julio Jones, but unless Roddy White is 100% and the Atlanta defense steps up (and they are one of the worst this year), ultimately Green Bay pulls away.  That is what I expect as Aaron Rodgers continues his MVP campaign and gets another big win.  Packers 38,  Falcons 20.   PICK:  Packers

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

• PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at CINCINNATI
• BALTIMORE (+3) at MIAMI
• INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) at CLEVELAND
• KANSAS CITY (+1) at ARIZONA
• PHILADELPHIA (-1) vs. SEATTLE  
• SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) at OAKLAND
• SAN DIEGO (+3.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND

• 6-POINT TEASER:  (Thursday)  DALLAS (+2.5) vs. CHICAGO  (OVER 45)

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
• ST. LOUIS (+3.5) at WASHINGTON
• INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) at CLEVELAND
• SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) at OAKLAND

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS): 

• BALTIMORE (+9) at MIAMI  
• PITTSBURGH (+9.5) at CINCINNATI
• SAN DIEGO (+9.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS): 

• ST. LOUIS (+3.5) at WASHINGTON
• INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) at CLEVELAND
• SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) at OAKLAND
• BALTIMORE (+9) at MIAMI

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS): 

• ST. LOUIS (+3.5) at WASHINGTON
• INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) at CLEVELAND
• SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) at OAKLAND
• BALTIMORE (+9) at MIAMI  
• PITTSBURGH (+9.5) at CINCINNATI

• 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS): 

• ST. LOUIS (+3.5) at WASHINGTON
• INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) at CLEVELAND
• SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) at OAKLAND
• BALTIMORE (+9) at MIAMI  
• PITTSBURGH (+9.5) at CINCINNATI
• SAN DIEGO (+9.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND

FOR THE WINS:

• PITTSBURGH (“FOR THE WIN” +150) at CINCINNATI
• BALTIMORE (“FOR THE WIN” +130) at MIAMI  
• SAN DIEGO (“FOR THE WIN” +170) vs. NEW ENGLAND

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• ST. LOUIS (-2.5) at WASHINGTON

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• None this week.

PICKS OF THE WEEK:  Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco, San Diego

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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