Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 12 was pretty average, and now comes Thanksgiving, always a tricky week. Short on time, short week, so now we just dive in. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) DETROIT (-7) vs. CHICAGO
Thanksgiving means a home game for the Lions, and this year they get to carve up the Bears for dinner. Chicago managed to salvage a win at home last week over Tampa Bay thanks to Matt Forte, but I see the Detroit front seven stopping him pretty much in his tracks. Detroit will give the passing game a tune-up at home as Calvin Johnson gobbles up yards and a touchdown or two. PICK: Lions
(Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (+3) at DALLAS
Dallas is your usual second home team for Thanksgiving, but oddly enough this game is also an NFC contest – making this the first time that I can remember where we did not have an AFC road team playing on turkey day. The Eagles are the bird served up here, but I think that they will be flying high after a 43-24 win at home last week. Philadelphia has nothing to lose in this contest as they are not favored nor are they expected to win this first of two divisional matchups with the Cowboys that will likely decide the NFC East. Dallas had to come back in a big way to beat the Giants last week, and the Eagles are way better than New York this year. I will take Chip Kelly and the points on the road in what should be a very entertaining game. PICK: Eagles
(Thursday) SEATTLE (+1) at SAN FRANCISCO
Not just two but three NFC divisional matchups close out Thanksgiving this week as the 49ers host the Seahawks. This was a very difficult game for me to choose, as I see both of these 7-4 teams as dead even in the standings and their playoff prospects. Both teams square back up again in Week 15, and with the 49ers at home I have them with the advantage, but then I looked at Seattle with more momentum, and having easier other contests (at Philadelphia, at Arizona and St. Louis vs. San Francisco going to Oakland, and hosting San Diego and Arizona), which gave me the inkling to go with the Seahawks. Couple that with their playing better overall as the 49ers had to rally to beat Washington and I am now going with Seattle – but this will be a field goal game with low scoring. Russell Wilson should protect the ball better than Colin Kaepernick, so I take the Seahawks here on the road. PICK: Seahawks
BUFFALO (-1.5) vs. CLEVELAND
The Bills head home (hopefully) and get to host the Browns after a short week for Buffalo that was certainly a stressful one after losing their home game and having to play in Detroit on Monday. Somehow they managed to forget about all that and take care of business, which was certainly helped by their woeful opponent in the Jets. Cleveland managed to eek out a win in Atlanta thanks to four field goals to compliment two Isaiah Crowell touchdowns, but the offense stalling and settling for three points four times is not a good omen. Buffalo desperately needs this win with three rough opponents left for December (at Denver, vs. Green Bay, at New England). Give me the Bills, this time at home for real, to get the touchdowns they need to put both squads at 7-5 in a game that could go a long way towards a Wild Card tiebreaker. PICK: Bills
SAN DIEGO (+5.5) at BALTIMORE
San Diego was in a big struggle last week at home with the Rams, but they managed to overcome a defensive score and held on for a three-point victory. Baltimore went out on the road and beat the Saints in New Orleans, but they will face their toughest home opponent this year when they get back to Maryland. The Ravens have issues with their secondary and Philip Rivers is heating up, and I look for Keenan Allen to run through that porous secondary and have a big game. This one could be impacted by weather, but I see it as a non-factor and that this game will be another close one for both teams – which tells me to take San Diego and the points. PICK: Chargers
MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
Did anyone else happen to notice that the Vikings only lost to the Packers by three last week? That’s the same Green Bay team that destroyed the Eagles and Bears the prior two contests. Carolina may think that they have a playoff shot coming out of their late bye week, but I could see them struggling to get any more wins this season with such a thin secondary and receiving corps after Kelvin Benjamin. One extra week of rest for Cam Newton will not be enough. PICK: Vikings
CINCINNATI (-3.5) at TAMPA BAY
The Tampa Bay defense managed to hang in there against the Bears for a while, and then they gave up their thin lead with Matt Forte pounding them inside. The Bengals are a much more legitimate playoff contender with A.J. Green back in the mix and two viable running backs as well. The offensive talent looks to be there for the Buccaneers, but that team is just not cohesive enough to string together four good quarters, even at home. I will take Cincinnati for a double-digit win that they simply must have before three divisional contests and a Monday night game at home against Denver. PICK: Bengals
TENNESSEE (+6.5) at HOUSTON
I know – how can I possibly pick the Titans – but if ever there was a week and an opportunity for Tennessee to grab another win it might be right here. The Titans are out of it but they just put up 24 points against Philadelphia and Zach Mettenberger has thrown two touchdowns in three of his last four starts. With the Texans losing Ryan Mallett and being forced to go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, I can see the Titans keeping this one close and making a game of it. I don’t love the call as I could easily see Alfred Blue running for 150 yards against that sad run defense, but a 24-20 type score would have the Titans covering, which is all I need. Not to get ahead of myself, but the Titans could take this game and go on a run with three more winnable games (Giants, Jets, at Jacksonville) before ending the season hosting the Colts. PICK: Titans
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) vs. WASHINGTON
This game is a classic “forget about what happened last week” type of contest. Indianapolis is at home again and this time they do not have to face a tougher-than-they-look Jacksonville team that always plays them well. Instead they get a Washington team coming to town that is in total disarray and very close to yanking their franchise quarterback because of how coddled he has been and how little leadership he has shown. I see an implosion by Washington and a blowout win for Andrew Luck, 38-13. PICK: Colts
NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5) at JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville struggled in a big way against Indianapolis last week, managing a paltry three points against the Colts on Sunday. The Giants nearly shocked the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, falling short of the upset by giving up two late touchdowns to Dallas in a high scoring 31-28 loss. Odell Beckham Jr. had the best catch I have ever seen – EVER – and he is so hot right now I cannot get away from picking his side. Take the Giants for a road win, 27-13. PICK: Giants
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
I just cannot pick the Saints or the Steelers with confidence right now. I see so many reasons to go against the Saints (on the road after two home losses, on a slow track in Pittsburgh in the cold, the Steelers coming off of a bye week) but I also see a Pittsburgh team that has really played to the level of their opponents far too often than not this year. The Steelers could be looking at this game as a potential launching point for a run at the division with two games against the Bengals around a trip to Atlanta and hosting Kansas City left on their schedule, but the Saints need the win just as badly after their two losses. I am leaning Pittsburgh at home due to the bye week and the momentum, but I could see this one going either way. I think I like Le’Veon Bell to run hard against New Orleans just like Justin Forsett did on a short week for the Saints – a big advantage here. PICK: Steelers
ST. LOUIS (-7) vs. OAKLAND
The Raiders have a few extra days to get ready for this road trip, but I do not see them building on their one win for the year after beating Kansas City last Thursday. That game was a big emotional lift for Oakland with former players all there that night to help boost team morale and to get a close victory. The Rams have been in dogfights most of the year and have been beating much tougher opponents (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco) and nearly pulled another upset in San Diego last week. I see St. Louis with a big victory, something like 27-13. PICK: Rams
ARIZONA (-2.5) at ATLANTA
I don’t get this line at all. The Cardinals are 9-2 and about to go to Atlanta, a team that is 4-7 and struggled again against the Browns last week, but they are only favored by less than a field goal? That would normally mean that Las Vegas does not trust Arizona with Drew Stanton at quarterback, and I would tend to agree, but their defense is solid and John Brown can fill in for Larry Fitzgerald just fine. Give me Andre Ellington for 150+ total yards and a touchdown as the Cardinals win on the road by at least a touchdown. PICK: Cardinals
NEW ENGLAND (+3.5) at GREEN BAY
wI get that Lambeau Field in late November is not a fun place to visit, but if you had to give me a team that could go in there and get a win right now it would be the surging New England Patriots. Bill Belichick can draw up a new game plan each and every week that barely resembles the last one, and that is why I think that Tom Brady has a big game in a shootout with Aaron Rodgers. I see this one as a 37-34 type game, and that screams to me to not just take the hot team but also go with the points. Weather will not bother New England, nor will the crowd with such an experienced team. PICK: Patriots
DENVER (-1) at KANSAS CITY
We all saw it last week – the Chiefs got beat by the Raiders while Peyton Manning found his rhythm once again in a big win at home over Miami. Now the Broncos have to go to Kansas City to try for the season sweep with the Chiefs, not an easy task on the road in Arrowhead. Kansas City has a few extra days to get ready for Peyton, but I think they could have a few extra weeks and it still would not be enough to slow down a Denver team with big-time momentum. Give me Denver for a road win here to take control of the AFC West and setup a big game in San Diego next week. PICK: Broncos
(Monday) MIAMI (-5.5) at NEW YORK JETS
Oddly enough, the long-time AFC East rivals have not yet played this season – which does not bode well for the Jets this year. Miami is arguably the best 6-5 team in the NFL, with close losses of late to Denver and Detroit during their four game slide. Ryan Tannehill looked solid in Denver last week, while the Jets looked abysmal against the Bills on Monday night. New York is begging for the season to be over at this point while Miami is hoping to keep their playoff chances alive. With two games left against the Jets along with home games against Baltimore and Minnesota, 10 wins are definitely within their grasp – and it all starts with throwing all day against the Jets. I expect Tannehill to do quite well and post a big fantasy game just when they need him to do so. PICK: Dolphins
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (+3) at DALLAS
- SAN DIEGO (+5.5) at BALTIMORE
- MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
- TENNESSEE (+6.5) at HOUSTON
- INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- ST. LOUIS (-7) vs. OAKLAND
- ARIZONA (-2.5) at ATLANTA
- NEW ENGLAND (+3.5) at GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-1) at KANSAS CITY
THANKSGIVING TEASER #1 (2 TEAMS, 6-POINTS):
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
THANKSGIVING TEASER #2:
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (+9.5) at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
THANKSGIVING TEASER #3 (3 TEAMS, 6-POINTS, 9-5 ODDS):
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO
FOR THE WINS:
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +150) at DALLAS
- SAN DIEGO (“FOR THE WIN” +210) at BALTIMORE
- TENNESSEE (“FOR THE WIN” +240) at HOUSTON
- NEW ORLEANS (“FOR THE WIN” +165) at PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (“FOR THE WIN” +155) at GREEN BAY
TEASERS
To make this easier to follow, I like eight choices this week for teasers. I am going to pair the first four with one another, and do the same for the next four.
Group 1: (Six one-star picks, teasing all of these teams with one another in 6-Point teasers for even odds):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
- (Monday) MIAMI (+0.5) at NEW YORK JETS
Group 2: (Six one-star picks, teasing all of these teams with one another in 6-Point teasers for even odds):
- ARIZONA (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- DENVER (+5) at KANSAS CITY
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO
And now I will try and go big with all eight teaser picks:
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
- (Monday) MIAMI (+0.5) at NEW YORK JETS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
- (Monday) MIAMI (+0.5) at NEW YORK JETS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
- (Monday) MIAMI (+0.5) at NEW YORK JETS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- DENVER (+5) at KANSAS CITY
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (OVER 48.5)
- (Monday) MIAMI (+0.5) at NEW YORK JETS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- DENVER (+5) at KANSAS CITY
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- (Thursday) DETROIT (-7) vs. CHICAGO
- BUFFALO (-1.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- (Monday) MIAMI (-5.5) at NEW YORK JETS
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Diego, Tennessee, New York Giants, St. Louis, New England, Denver, Miami
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-8 (42.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 17.1-22 (39.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 6-4 (60%)
Season
- OVERALL: 86-86-4 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 109.1-137-3 (44.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 41-41-1 (50%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.