Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
There are good weeks, and then there are bad weeks, and then there was Week 11. Actually, looking back at it, it could have been much, much worse – but overall, it was a crazy week last weekend with so many upsets and wild outcomes. Needless to say, I want to forget about it and press on for the matchups this week, which definitely have some interesting lines. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-7) at OAKLAND
Let’s not overthink this one. Kansas City is hot, Oakland is 0-9. I get that I am taking a road team in a divisional matchup, but this is the Raiders here. Kansas City will impose their will on both sides of the ball and only garbage time points can wreck this pick. I have the Chiefs winning behind Jamaal Charles, 27-13. PICK: Chiefs
CLEVELAND (+3) at ATLANTA
If you have a good read on either of these teams, please let me know. Atlanta plays in the woeful NFC South and were fortunate to get out of Carolina with a win thanks to a missed field goal late by Graham Gano. Meanwhile, Cleveland was routed by the Houston Texans in Cleveland behind Ryan Mallett and Alfred Blue. Yeah, we all saw THAT one coming. Josh Gordon returns for the Browns, and their secondary is one of the best and most underrated around. Atlanta’s defense is terrible and the Browns should be able to run well with Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. I like the better team (as long as they show up) getting points here, but overall I am not thrilled with picking this one. PICK: Brownss
PHILADELPHIA (-11) vs. TENNESSEE
This game is ripe for a bad pick, but I am not falling for the banana in the tailpipe here. Tennessee may have appeared to be competitive against the Steelers in Tennessee on Monday Night Football, but the Steelers kept them in that contest thanks to a blown coverage that gave the Titans a long score just before halftime. Philadelphia heads home after getting shellacked by Green Bay last Sunday, but there’s no shame in getting beat down by a red hot Aaron Rodgers when he is on his game. The Eagles are still 7-3 and have three road losses to legitimate playoff contenders – at San Francisco, at Arizona and at Green Bay. Tennessee could not stop a runny nose Monday night with Le’Veon Bell rushing for 200 yards, and I expect the Eagles to play strong at home and run LeSean McCoy all night long and also score on special teams. Eagles 34, Titans 17. PICK: Eagles
NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. DETROIT
The Patriots are red hot and Detroit is struggling, even with Calvin Johnson back in the mix. New England just ran all over Indianapolis, but look for yet another game plan change from Bill Belichick as Detroit is tough against inside running. No matter, the Patriots are going to find yet another way to beat up on the next opponent. The Lions are good, but they are not good enough to go out on the road two weeks on the road and compete against some of the best teams around. Detroit just lost to Arizona 14-6 with the Cardinals relying on two key passes from Drew Stanton and some solid defense. Tom Brady is far better than Drew Stanton, and New England is a much tougher road venue than Arizona. New England by double digits. PICK: Patriots
GREEN BAY (-9.5) at MINNESOTA
Aaron Rodgers vs. Teddy Bridgewater. The Packers offer Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb at wide receiver, while the Vikings offer… Charles Johnson? Really? Always a little tough to take a road team in a divisional matchup, but the Vikings are not even close to the caliber of the Packers. PICK: Packers
INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
I think the Jaguars are getting better, and the Colts just lost their best tailback option in Ahmad Bradshaw for the year to a broken leg, but Andrew Luck can win games almost all by himself. Jacksonville will try and compete in the passing game but the Colts know that this is a must win contest at home in the division, and the only thing that might make this close is Luck taking the fourth quarter off and some garbage time points. I am taking the Colts in a laugher, 34-13. PICK: Colts
HOUSTON (-1.5) vs. CINCINNATI
Cincinnati just won on the road and New Orleans, but I cannot count on consistency from Andy Dalton at this point. The Texans just won on the road in Cleveland, and now they head home for Ryan Mallett’s first home start. Even without Arian Foster, the Texans looked the part of the much better team on the road in Cleveland. Behind Mallett, Alfred Blue and J.J. Watt the Texans have a new lease on life and the season. Don’t laugh – they are 5-5, and they have three games left with Tennessee and Jacksonville. A win here moves them to 6-5 with a decent shot at 10 wins this season and a playoff berth. PICK: Texans
BUFFALO (-4.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
How soon we forget about these teams with the Jets off last week and Buffalo playing last Thursday and losing to Miami, 22-9. Then again, both of these teams are pretty forgettable. Buffalo has to win this game if they want to keep their slim playoff hopes alive as they still have to face New England, Green Bay and Denver this season. Kyle Orton is a veteran quarterback and with a long week of preparation, I thnk he gets the job done against the Jets terrible pass defense. PICK: Bills
TAMPA BAY (+6) at CHICAGO
Wait – Jeff is taking an underdog, and it is Tampa Bay? What’s going on here? Tampa Bay actually has a shot at the playoffs even though they are 2-8 because of just how bad the NFC South is this year, and they just beat Washington on the road by a wide margin. Chicago did win last week over Minnesota at home, but it was hardly a convincing effort for me. The biggest reason I like this game (aside from getting six points) is that Josh McCown is returning to Chicago, where we was very effective filling in for Jay Cutler with the Bears last year. If anyone can pick apart a thin Chicago pass defense besides Aaron Rodgers, it is McCown. Take the Bucs to cover and a good shot at winning outright. PICK: Buccaneers
ARIZONA (+6.5) at SEATTLE
The home field advantage for Seattle is well known, but the Seahawks are not the same team that they have been in recent seasons. Arizona has a great run defense and is 9-1 for a reason. Not only that but the last time they went to Seattle they pulled off a win, and I think that they can keep this game close and possibly pull off the “upset”, which would not surprise me one bit. Seattle is going to have to try and run the ball with Marshawn Lynch, and that is not going to be easy. Take the Cardinals to cover and a decent chance to win outright, 20-17. PICK: Cardinals
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
I get that the Rams are hot and just pulled off a big upset of Denver, but that was on the fast track at home and they had the perfect game plan against Peyton Manning, who also lost both Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas during that contest. San Diego has good weapons on offense and is getting healthier, and the Chargers know that they have to win every home game that they can to stay afloat in a very competitive AFC West. Their schedule after this game is probably the toughest I have seen (at Baltimore, New England, Denver, at San Francisco, at Kansas City) so this is a must win. Take San Diego here. PICK: Chargers
DENVER (-7) vs. MIAMI
Miami is a good team and they just won 22-9 last Thursday night in an ugly contest against Buffalo at home, but now they have to go Denver and face a Broncos squad coming off their worst upset of the season. Peyton Manning may not be at 100% with the possibility of not having one or both of Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but with a week to plan a scheme without them, Manning should be just fine. Miami is not that much of an offensive threat and I think that Denver regroups and gets a much needed win in a convincing manner here. Denver 31, Miami 20. PICK: Broncos
SAN FRANCISCO (-8) vs. WASHINGTON
The Giants nearly gave away the game last week in the Meadowlands despite forcing five interceptions by Eli Manning, and now they get to head home and host Washington, a team in total disarray. Robert Griffin III looked terrible at home last week against Tampa Bay, and the 49ers are getting healthier and stronger on defense. Not a good recipe for Washington to pull the upset. Give me the home team for a big win, something along the lines of 30-13 San Francisco. PICK: 49ers
DALLAS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants had one of their most disappointing offensive performances last week as Eli Manning imploded for five interceptions against San Francisco in Week 11. Now the Giants host the Cowboys coming off of a bye week, and Dallas is looking to take advantage of their rest and extra time to prepare for a divisional contest. Dallas is in a dogfight for the division and a playoff spot in a very competitive NFC, so they have to win this game with two tough matchups with Eagles looming over the next three weeks. DeMarco Murray should run wild as Dallas takes care of business on the road, 27-20. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) BALTIMORE (+3.5) at NEW ORLEANS
Before you think that I am crazy for taking the Saints to lose again at home, keep in mind that this is not necessarily my prediction – rather, I see the Ravens coming off of a bye week being very competitive on the road at New Orleans and keeping this game close. The Baltimore secondary is banged up, but they had two weeks to prepare for this game and to try and figure out how to cover Jimmy Graham. Joe Flacco and the Smith non-brothers (Steve and Torrey) can take shots deep as well. I think Justin Forsett can run on the Saints and that New Orleans will not be able to fix the loss of Brandin Cooks that quickly. Baltimore will try and mirror the Cincinnati game plan and keep this game close. Throw in that Baltimore has a better kicker and I see the Ravens with a decent shot at pulling the upset and I very much like them to keep this game within a field goal either way. Look for an entertaining game (for a change) to close out Week 12. PICK: Ravens
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-7) at OAKLAND
- PHILADELPHIA (-11) vs. TENNESSEE
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. DETROIT
- INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- TAMPA BAY (+6) at CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+6.5) at SEATTLE
- SAN DIEGO (-5.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- SAN FRANCISCO (-8) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Monday) BALTIMORE (+3.5) at NEW ORLEANS
- CLEVELAND (“FOR THE WIN” +150) at ATLANTA
- DETROIT (“FOR THE WIN” +275) at NEW ENGLAND (Odds too good to pass up with Detroit)
- TAMPA BAY (“FOR THE WIN” +210) at CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (“FOR THE WIN” +250) at SEATTLE
- (Monday) BALTIMORE (“FOR THE WIN” +160) at NEW ORLEANS
TEASERS
To make this easier to follow, I like eight choices this week for teasers. I am going to pair the first four with one another, and do the same for the next four.
Group 1: (Six one-star picks, teasing all of these teams with one another in 6-Point teasers for even odds):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-1) at OAKLAND
- SAN DIEGO (+0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-1) vs. MIAMI
- SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
Group 2: (Six one-star picks, teasing all of these teams with one another in 6-Point teasers for even odds):
- HOUSTON (+4.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- BUFFALO (+1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- ARIZONA (+12.5) at SEATTLE
- (Monday) BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS (OVER 43.5)
And now I will try and go big with all eight teaser picks:
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-1) at OAKLAND
- SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
- SAN DIEGO (+0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-1) vs. MIAMI
- (Monday) BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS (OVER 43.5)
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-1) at OAKLAND
- SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
- SAN DIEGO (+0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-1) vs. MIAMI
- (Monday) BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS (OVER 43.5)
- ARIZONA (+12.5) at SEATTLE
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-1) at OAKLAND
- SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
- SAN DIEGO (+0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-1) vs. MIAMI
- (Monday) BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS (OVER 43.5)
- ARIZONA (+12.5) at SEATTLE
- BUFFALO (+1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-1) at OAKLAND
- SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs. WASHINGTON
- SAN DIEGO (+0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-1) vs. MIAMI
- (Monday) BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS (OVER 43.5)
- ARIZONA (+12.5) at SEATTLE
- BUFFALO (+1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- HOUSTON (+4.5) vs. CINCINNATI
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- CLEVELAND (+3) at ATLANTA
- HOUSTON (-1.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- BUFFALO (-4.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- (Monday) BALTIMORE at NEW ORLEANS (OVER 43.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Kansas City, Cleveland, Philadelphia, New England, Indianapolis, Houston, Buffalo, Arizona, San Diego, Baltimore
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-8 (42.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 5-11 (31.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-5 (44.4%)
Season
- OVERALL: 79-78-4 (50.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 92-115-3 (44.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 35-37-1 (48.6%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.