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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Thank you so much, New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. Rather than celebrating my overall picks (9-4, 4-1 Best Bets) I am left to lament what could have been if Pittsburgh had won – or at least only lost by one point. My 9-9 Star Picks would have hit a crazy number of teasers, resulting in a monster week – something I have yet to nail this year. That’s how it goes sometimes. I’m still going to fight each week to get those Stars not just to 50% like my other numbers but over that mark. So here we go with another week that favors a ton of teaser selections. Let’s get started for Week 11 games:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) BUFFALO (+5.5) at MIAMI
Throwing out the results from last week as Cincinnati completely blew it at home against Cleveland, but that has no bearing on this contest. I still like home teams on Thursdays, and Miami is much better than most people think. Yes, Lamar Miller is banged up, but when your quarterback can run for 50 yards on his own, that’s a good way to offset a tailback at less than full strength. Buffalo was competitive against Kansas City, running the ball well with three backs, and that can go a long way on the road. This game has playoff implications for both teams, and Buffalo has a veteran quarterback and a strong running attack. I think that the Bills can win this game and even if the home team wins, Buffalo is very likely to play this game very close. The points are just too many to pass up in what should be a tight, lower scoring affair. Miami probably wins, but I like Buaffalo to cover. PICK: Bills
ATLANTA (+1.5) at CAROLINA
In a word – yuck. The winner of this game could be in first place in the woeful NFC South, which is pushing for a team under .500 to make the playoffs. Carolina looked terrible in Philadelphia while Atlanta made Tampa Bay look competitive. Give me the team with more passing weapons against a bad defensive team. Atlanta is open to be beaten by a good ground game, but the Panthers have not run the ball well this year. I like Matt Ryan plus a point or so to win an ugly game on the road. PICK: Falcons
CHICAGO (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
The Bears are a mess, but so are the Vikings with a young quarterback that is struggling to protect the ball. Jay Cutler has made mistake after mistake this year and Chicago made Aaron Rodgers look like the best quarterback in the history of the game last Sunday night. That won’t be the case with Teddy Bridgewater, but it does make one think that the Vikings have a shot here. Both teams are coming off of a bye, and I think the ground games will be the center of the game plans for both teams. Give me Matt Forte over Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata, but not by much. Another ugly game, but I will take the Bears at home to barely cover, 24-20. PICK: Bears
CLEVELAND (-3) vs. HOUSTON
The first place Browns (haven’t typed that statement in a while…) host Houston this week. So let me get this straight. I get a 6-3 team at home with 10 days rest to host a team coming off of a bye week, but changing their quarterback to an inexperienced Ryan Mallett. Arian Foster will not be at 100% for this game, while Cleveland will offer up three solid options at tailback. Once the Browns get through this week, they get Josh Gordon back to even further improve the offense. Give me the Browns for the win, by a touchdown or more. PICK: Browns
KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SEATTLE
Here’s a stat for you – Kansas City has given up ZERO rushing touchdowns this season. That’s right, the next one this year will be their first. That will be severely tested this week against Marshawn Lynch, who just happened to find the end zone four times last week against the Giants. That will be the most interesting matchup of the week, but if the Chiefs are stout against the run, Seattle is going to have a very hard time moving the ball without reliable receiving options for Russell Wilson. Kansas City will face their own challenges on offense against the Seahawks, because the Chiefs have not done well with their wide receivers (also zero TDs this year) but Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce could both be very productive, especially with Brandon Mebane out for the year. Seattle is weak against shorter passes and tight ends, and I think that is the difference. Kansas City is red hot and Seattle is up and down this season, so for me this is a relatively easy call to take the Chiefs at home. PICK: Chiefs
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) vs. CINCINNATI
The Saints are a very formidable team at home, and they were extremely close to beating San Francisco in overtime last week. Cincinnati looked terrible against Cleveland at home last Thursday, and their susceptibility to the run will invite a big dose of Mark Ingram this week. The Bengals also struggle against tight ends, so you know that Jimmy Graham will be a major part of the New Orleans game plan. I like the Saints at home to control the game and win with first place in the woeful NFC South well within the Saints’ sights. PICK: Saints
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
How can I possibly take the Giants at home after getting run all over by the Seahawks last week? I love Odell Beckham Jr., but San Francisco scored two touchdowns with Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, and I expect that duo to get another two touchdowns (at least) this week. The Giants may cover this late, but as long as Colin Kaepernick does not give the ball away more than once, San Francisco should win this game by at least seven. PICK: 49ers
DENVER (-9.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
Peyton Manning usually covers a spread of 10 points or less by halftime. St. Louis plays some divisional teams close, but I expect a blowout here, no matter who is in the Broncos backfield. Denver in a blowout, 41-13. PICK: Broncos
WASHINGTON (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
I really wanted to take the Buccaneers, but as Josh McCown reminded me several times, they are 1-8…. 1-8…. 1-8. One win, inexplicably over Pittsburgh on the road. Now the Buccaneers head to Washington to face Robert Griffin III and DeSean Jackson after a bye. That heavily favors Washington, who will run the ball a lot with Alfred Morris and should win this one in relatively easy fashion, even though neither team is very good. PICK: Washington
SAN DIEGO (-10) vs. OAKLAND
I know that this is a divisional matchup, but the Raiders are winless for a reason. That streak should continue as the Chargers will look to beat up on Oakland at home after their bye week. The Raiders are the kings of garbage time, but I do not believe it will be enough to cover the double digit margin. Chargers 30, Raiders 17. PICK: Chargers
ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
Lots of people are going to pick the Lions to win this game on the road, but Arizona is 8-1 for a reason. Carson Palmer has been lost for the year (torn ACL) but Drew Stanton has already started for the Cardinals this year and been effective and efficient in moving the offense. Detroit cut it very close against Miami last week, and Arizona is far better on defense. Both teams can create turnovers, and Arizona’s defense is really starting to heat up. I expect this to be one of the best games of the week with Arizona winning because their special teams and defense are much better, not to mention a much more reliable kicking game right now. Cardinals by three, 23-20. PICK: Cardinals
PHILADELPHIA (+5.5) at GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers might have thrown for 10 touchdowns against Chicago if the Packers did not let up at halftime last Sunday night, but Philadelphia loves to play at warp speed on their own. Both offenses are hot, and Green Bay is a very tough place to play, so I see a big shootout going down here between these two formidable teams. I just cannot pass up the chance of getting over five points and a Chip Kelly offense that has not lost a game by more than five all season long. PICK: Eagles
NEW ENGLAND (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS
Another potential shootout looms on Sunday Night Football this week as Tom Brady travels to Indianapolis in Week 11. Andrew Luck has been a very hot quarterback, but keep in mind that the Colts were torn apart on defense the past two weeks by Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger, 500+ yards and 6 TDs) and Eli Manning. Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare to face the Colts on the road, and Indianapolis struggles against tight ends this year. Dial up Brady and Rob Gronkowski this week. PICK: Patriots
(Monday) PITTSBURGH (-5.5) at TENNESSEE
When a team struggles on the road, nothing seems to right that ship more than facing a bad team – and here we get the Steelers traveling to Tennessee this week to wrap up Week 11. Pittsburgh should be able to right their ship after a bad game against the Jets last Sunday. Zach Mettenberger has a long way to go to be the “better berger” quarterback here. I am taking Ben Roethlisberger and company to blow out Tennessee on Monday Night Football, 34-13. PICK: Steelers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
*ONE STAR GAMES*
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SEATTLE
- SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- WASHINGTON (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
- PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +210) at GREEN BAY
- 6-POINT TEASER: ATLANTA (+7.5) at CAROLINA (OVER 40)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (-0.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+0.5) at TENNESSEE
- CLEVELAND (+3) vs. HOUSTON
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (-0.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+0.5) at TENNESSEE
- CLEVELAND (+3) vs. HOUSTON
- DENVER (-3.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (-0.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+0.5) at TENNESSEE
- CLEVELAND (+3) vs. HOUSTON
- DENVER (-3.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- SAN FRANCISCO at NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 37.5)
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (-0.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+0.5) at TENNESSEE
- CLEVELAND (+3) vs. HOUSTON
- DENVER (-3.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- SAN FRANCISCO at NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 37.5)
- WASHINGTON (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DENVER (-9.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (-5.5) at TENNESSEE
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+0.5) at TENNESSEE (UNDER 54.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Cleveland, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Francisco, Denver, Washington, Arizona, New England, Pittsburgh
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-4 (69.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 9-9 (50%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-1 (80%)
Season
- OVERALL: 73-70-4 (51.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 87-104-3 (45.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 31-32-1 (49.2%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.