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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
After what was clearly the worst week of the 2015 season, I had to look at what went wrong with such a bad result. The details were that I had another average week in picking games (6-7-1), but selecting games for Best Bets were certainly wrong choices. While I rarely bring up bad beats because sometimes you get lucky wins, but when you have four teams that were all within a field goal (Chicago, Denver, Green Bay and New England) and two within a point (Bears, Patriots) of covering, it is a hard pill to swallow. Too much to ask for all those games to go your way, but it does tell me that I wasn’t that far off from making good picks. Sometimes that is just how the ball bounces. Time to put it behind me, look at who is good at what and, more importantly, bad at other things and make some solid picks for this week. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: Cincinnati, Chicago, Green Bay, Denver
Teams returning from a bye: Dallas, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Oakland
(Thursday) SEATTLE (-6) at SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle lost a tough one at home to Carolina, thanks again for their inability to stop the tight end position. If Vernon Davis can get healthy for the 49ers, he might have a decent performance, but I am not holding my breath. San Francisco won at home last week thanks to a Ravens team that cannot cover their bar tab right now, so even the rejuvenated Colin Kaepernick should be kept in check enough this week for Seattle to win and cover. The Seahawks cannot afford an NFC West loss here, and if the Seahawks can win this one and the following game in Dallas, a 4-4 record heading into the bye gives them momentum for a second half playoff push. I will take Seattle for a big win, 27-13. PICK: Seahawks
JACKSONVILLE (+5.5) vs. BUFFALO (in London, England)
If there is one team that is used to going to England for a game, it has to be the Jaguars. Their “second home” of London has hosted Jacksonville twice already and the Jaguars will be the first NFL team to play three times across the pond. Jacksonville agreed to four games in London from 2013-2016, so this is the third installment of that four-year commitment. Odds are that this team will be the most exciting version of the franchise to play in England, as Blake Bortles takes several skilled receivers over to face Rex Ryan’s Bills. It remains to be seen if Tyrod Taylor will play this week, and a strong argument could be made to not even have him make the trip given that Buffalo (and Jacksonville) have a bye week after this contest. Regardless of the quarterback for the Bills, I like the “home” team to not just cover but win outright. The Jaguars are getting better every week and I think that this is a win for them, 27-20. PICK: Jaguars
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) at WASHINGTON
Believe it or not, Washington has playoff aspirations now given the woeful state of the NFC East. At 2-4, they are just one game behind the division lead, and given their schedule over the next month or so, this contest is a must win if they have any realistic shot at pushing for the postseason. Tampa Bay has been up and down all season, but they did look solid in Week 5 before their bye week as Doug Martin ran all over Jacksonville. Washington’s strength on defense has been against the run, so I believe they will force the Buccaneers to have to win behind Jameis Winston’s arm. Washington will be motivated for this one, but after seeing how effective Chris Ivory and Ryan Fitzpatrick were last week, I have my doubts. I do not like either side a ton, but give me the team on longer rest and coming off of a win instead of a team rebounding from a recent loss. Tampa Bay 23, Washington 17. PICK: Buccaneers
ATLANTA (-4.5) at TENNESSEE
I know that New Orleans just gave the Falcons a bad loss, but Atlanta shot themselves in the foot several times in that game with a blocked punt and bad fumbles throughout the contest. Atlanta is a good team this year, and Tennessee really is not that good at all. Marcus Mariota is still learning how to be an NFL quarterback and he was banged up last Sunday. Atlanta will run the ball all day on the Titans and Julio Jones will also get his. Falcons by double digits. PICK: Falcons
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
The Colts are probably still reeling after a bad game against New England, including an inexplicable call to fake a punt in arguably the worst formation I have ever seen for a punt, fake or otherwise. A wide receiver snapping to a safety? Ouch. A coach might get fired over that, and maybe more than one. The Colts desperately need a win here, and if they can hold New Orleans in check on defense (a big if), they can put that Patriots loss in the rear view mirror – until they likely see each other again in January. I like Andrew Luck to bounce his team back and get a win, but this will be a closer game than most people think. Do not love picking this game, but I will take the Colts at home for a touchdown win, 31-24. PICK: Colts
MINNESOTA (-2.5) at DETROIT
Yuck. Do I have to pick every game? Wait, that was not my inside voice, sorry. Detroit is not that good, and Minnesota did not look good either last week. I am putting this game squarely on the back of Adrian Peterson to run well against the Lions, who have given up nine touchdowns to running backs including two last week to the Bears. That’s right – Chicago took Detroit to overtime last week. I will take one team getting better against a Lions team that is a mess this year. Vikings win this one as Detroit goes back to losing again. PICK: Vikings
PITTSBURGH (-2) at KANSAS CITY
Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to the health of both Ben Roethlisberger and Jeremy Maclin for this one. I am going with no Roethlisberger and no Maclin with this call, and I really liked the third quarterback for the Steelers, Landry Jones. He looked comfortable in the pocket and played well against the Cardinals, but that was at home, and Arrowhead is a tough place to visit. I still think that Pittsburgh can get a key win here and keep their solid playoff hopes alive until Ben is back, and that’s my call here. Steelers by a field goal, 20-17. PICK: Steelers
ST. LOUIS (-5) vs. CLEVELAND
Is there a World Series or something going on? This slate of games is terrible. So are the Browns, aside from Gary Barnidge. Bet you never would have guessed you would ever read that sentence before this year, now would you? Nick Foles. Yes, I am hanging my hat on Foles….to hand the ball off to Todd Gurley. Rams run for 200 yards and win at home, 23-16. PICK: Rams
HOUSTON (+4.5) at MIAMI
Okay, Miami looked a lot better last week after their bye week and a coaching reshuffle, but I do not think that they can bottle up Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins here. The Texans are getting points and I like that, quite a bit. Miami knows that they must win this game at home before a short week matchup against New England in Foxboro, so they will be going all out for a victory here. Both defenses are looking solid and the matchup looks close on both sides of the ball. I like the Texans and the points, but I like Miami to win, 23-20. This game should be pretty fun to watch and overtime would not surprise me at all. PICK: Texans
NEW YORK JETS (+9.5) AT NEW ENGLAND
I cannot remember the last time I picked against the Patriots, especially at home, but going against Tom Brady was surprisingly the right call last week. The Jets are 4-1 and visiting Foxboro for a big AFC East clash, and I am sure that is how Gang Green is looking at this one. New England is probably just looking at this one as another opportunity to make yet another loud statement to the rest of the division, AFC and league in general that the Patriots are in another class entirely this season. Watch New England shut down Chris Ivory and force Ryan Fitzpatrick to work some magic, which I am betting against with Darrelle Revis lurking back there. Fitzpatrick was helped out quite a bit by his receivers last week against Washington, but I do not think he will fare as well this Sunday. PICK: Patriots
SAN DIEGO (-4) vs. OAKLAND
Phillip Rivers and Derek Carr may throw for over 800 yards on 100+ attempts this week in what could be a four hour contest. Four points feels like one too many, but I like San Diego to win at home against a divisional team in a game that they must win to keep fading playoff hopes alive. A loss to Oakland would give the Chargers a fifth loss and stick a giant fork in San Diego for this year. Oakland may have had an extra week to prepare, but I like how well Rivers is playing right now. A tough loss in Green Bay is nothing to feel bad about, and some home cooking should right that ship for the Chargers. PICK: Chargers
DALLAS (+4) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Cowboys are likely turning their hopes over to another quarterback this week in Matt Cassel. Feel good about that, Dallas fans? Well, consider that the Giants looked terrible in Philadelphia last Monday night and they are running out of healthy wide receivers. Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle probably both played too soon and that left Eli Manning’s options too thin to come back against the Eagles. This game is likely to be one of two opposing strengths – the Dallas offensive line and run game versus the New York run defense. I think Dallas looks to make a statement by running it early and often and that will establish the run, keep Cassel from having to do too much and get Dallas a much needed win on the road as they hope Tony Romo and Dez Bryant get healthy soon. PICK: Cowboys
CAROLINA (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
I wanted to find a reason to say how the Eagles can win this game, but I just cannot figure a plausible way that they get a road win here. Cam Newton is playing at a very high level, and if the Eagles cannot stop Greg Olsen, it is going to be a very long night. Sam Bradford will have to not turn the ball over, and I am not holding my breath for that to happen. Philadelphia has been competitive in all of their games this year and they may be able to stick around in this game, but I like the Carolina defense against the Eagles to be the deciding factor. Panthers make a statement with a win, go to 6-0 and shine before a national television audience. PICK: Panthers
(Monday) ARIZONA (-7) vs. BALTIMORE
Here is the most misleading stat I have seen this week: Baltimore has five losses by six points or less (and their lone victory was by three), so you would think that the Ravens have been right there, in all of their games. Not really. What those numbers really tell you are two things – Joe Flacco is good at keeping his team in games and that the Baltimore defense has been ridiculously bad this season. Forget that they lost to Denver and Cincinnati for a moment, and consider that they have lost to Cleveland at home and both the Raiders and the 49ers on the road. This just in – none of those teams are any good. Throw in the close win over a Michael Vick-led Steelers team in Pittsburgh that they should have lost in regulation if the Steelers had had a good kicker, and Baltimore could easily be 0-6 and right there at the bottom of the league. Guess what – that would be right, and they should be in that conversation. Their pass defense is one of the worst, and Carson Palmer cannot wait to rack up 400+ yards and three scores on Monday Night Football. Load up on Cardinals as Arizona will roll to a big win in the desert come Monday. PICK: Cardinals
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (-6) at SAN FRANCISCO
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+220) vs. BUFFALO (in London, England)
- TAMPA BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+155) at
- HOUSTON “FOR THE WIN” (+190) at MIAMI
- DALLAS “FOR THE WIN” (+165) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- PHILADELPHIA “FOR THE WIN” (+155) vs. CAROLINA
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- ATLANTA (+1.5) at TENNESSEE
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (EVEN) at SAN FRANCISCO
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- ATLANTA (+1.5) at TENNESSEE
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (EVEN) at SAN FRANCISCO
- JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) vs. BUFFALO (in London, England)
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- ATLANTA (+1.5) at TENNESSEE
- (Thursday) SEATTLE (EVEN) at SAN FRANCISCO
- JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) vs. BUFFALO (in London, England)
- ST. LOUIS (+1) vs. CLEVELAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- ATLANTA (-4.5) at TENNESSEE
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) ARIZONA (-1) vs. BALTIMORE (OVER 42.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Seahawks, Jaguars, Falcons, Cowboys, Cardinals
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-7-1 (46.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 3-16 (15.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 1-6-1 (14.3%)
Last Week / Season
- OVERALL: 46-43-2 (51.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 28.8-57-1 (33.6%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 15-22-1 (40.5%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.