Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 5 was another modest week, with a 7-7 overall finish and that was the best of the lot as far as picks go. Needless to say, it has been a rocky start to the year. Time to buckle down and dig in to get some solid picks rolling as we head towards Halloween. Four teams are off this week, so let’s take a look at the 14 games on the Week 6 slate. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: Dallas, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Oakland
Teams returning from a bye: Miami, New York Jets, Carolina, Minnesota
(Thursday) ATLANTA (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
To me, this game is pretty simple. The Saints cannot stop the run, and Atlanta is more than happy to run it down the other team’s throat with Devonta Freeman. Julio Jones can use more rest so he might be a decoy again this week, but it should not matter. Frankly I thought Atlanta would be closer to a touchdown favorite rather than having to only give three points, but I think that is giving New Orleans a lot of home field respect. Drew Brees will do the best he can, but it will not be enough. PICK: Falcons
ARIZONA (-3) at PITTSBURGH
Speaking of teams that are losing some home field mystique, here are the Pittsburgh Steelers returning home after a big win on the road at San Diego on Monday Night Football. A long trip and a short week can create issues for a team, but none are bigger for the Steelers than having to use Michael Vick at quarterback right now. He looks lost back there, and Arizona already made Matthew Stafford look terrible last week and pushed him out of the game in Week 5. The Cardinals are red hot on offense with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, and they almost have too many good running backs to get all of them the ball enough. Arizona will jump out ahead early and run the ball a ton in the second half to preserve the lead and the win in Pittsburgh. Arizona by at least a touchdown, and probably double digits here. PICK: Cardinals
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
The loss of Jamaal Charles will be a huge impact for Kansas City, as they have to go to Minnesota to face a Vikings team coming off of a bye week. Teddy Bridgewater will spread the ball around and then give the ball plenty to Adrian Peterson. Andy Reid will have to ask Alex Smith to get him a road win, and that is too much to ask here. I would love this more at just three points, so there is a reason why it is more than a field goal. Lay the points and take the Vikings. PICK: Vikings
NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Washington is getting a lot of respect for their run defense, but some of it is due to their penetration by the front seven against weaker offensive lines. I believe that the Jets will present a balanced attack with passing and rushing, and do an effective job in both areas. Washington lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta in overtime last week while New York had an extra week of rest. The Jets should be giving closer to a touchdown, as I think that will be the final margin. Jets 24, Washington 17. PICK: Jets
CINCINNATI (-3) at BUFFALO
How is this game only a field goal margin? Tyrod Taylor will be out for the Bills and the Bengals are 5-0 and firing on all cylinders. This line screams “trap”, but I am falling right into it if it is. I am taking the Bengals to go to 6-0 with an easy road win. PICK: Bengals
CHICAGO (+3) at DETROIT
It is scary to say that the Bears are in better shape than Detroit, but it is Halloween season and Chicago has the right colors, so why not? Matthew Stafford was benched last week after throwing a third interception against Arizona, and he will be looking to get back to playing well here against Chicago. Chicago pulled out a narrow one-point victory in Kansas City last week, but their M*A*S*H unit at wide receiver is going to catch up with them soon. The question is, will it be this week? Detroit needs to get back to a more conservative approach to protect the ball, but at 0-5 I think the wheels are coming off for the Lions. The Bears at 2-3 have a shot to get to .500 and get a road win in the NFC North. Detroit is rattled and the home crowd could turn on them quickly, which is what I think happens as Chicago gets the win. PICK: Bears
DENVER (-4) at CLEVELAND
One thing I consistently rely on in picking games is that a defense travels well, regardless of where and when they have to play. Denver’s defense is arguably the best in the league right now, and even an early start against the Browns will not slow them down. Denver will run the ball well against Cleveland and Peyton Manning will do just enough to keep some balance on offense. With one of the best kickers in the NFL as well, Denver should win by double digits, something like Denver 23, Browns 13. PICK: Broncos
HOUSTON (-1.5) at JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville is getting points at home after a tough loss to the Buccaneers at Tampa Bay last week. Houston also lost last week to Indianapolis last Thursday at home, so here are two AFC South teams squaring off after losses with a must win divisional contest. Houston supporters will point to Arian Foster and the weak Jacksonville run defense, but the Jaguars through very effectively last week. So it boils down to Foster and the run game against Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in the passing game. I think this is a complete coin flip, as both teams have good strengths to rely on, but Jacksonville’s giving up 38 points last week to Tampa Bay is the deciding factor for me. I will grudgingly pick the Texans for a narrow win on the road, 23-20. PICK: Texans
MIAMI (+2.5) at TENNESSEE
Nothing is sexy about the Dolphins right now (okay, maybe the cheerleaders, but I was taking about the football team here). Miami had the week off after a lackluster effort in London against the Jets, but I struggle to find anything to like on offense or defense for Tennessee as well. I see more playmakers for the Dolphins, plus a week of rest and a new head coach. I think Miami gets the rest of their season off on the right foot with a road win after their bye. PICK: Dolphins
SEATTLE (-7) vs. CAROLINA
The good news for the Panthers is that they had last week off to rest. The bad news is that they have to travel to Seattle and face a very dominant Seahawks defense that is playing extremely well right now. Greg Olsen may be productive (Seattle does struggle against tight ends) but even if he finds the end zone twice it will not be enough. Carolina’s defense looks good so far this year, but the opposition they built those solid numbers against (Tampa Bay, Houston, New Orleans and Jacksonville) does not. Seahawks 27, Panthers 17. PICK: Seahawks
GREEN BAY (-9.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
San Diego just lost, at home, to a Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers team on a short week. Now they have to go to face Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. Sorry Chargers fans, but this will not end well. Packers by at least 10, and probably much more. PICK: Packers
BALTIMORE (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
This game has a not-so-hidden revenge narrative to it, with two former Ravens starting at wide receiver for San Francisco. Both Anquan Boldin (traded) and Torrey Smith (left via free agency) want to perform well against their former team, while Joe Flacco will want to step up and show that the Ravens are still a viable AFC team even after another heartbreaking loss to Cleveland last week. Baltimore is not ready to quit on the season just yet, but they need to win this game to have any real chance to get back in a playoff hunt. This is a very close call for me as two bad teams heading in bad directions are facing one another, and it is hard to take a banged up Ravens team laying points on the road. Both teams are average against the run but below average against the pass, so I have to go with the better quarterback, and that is Joe Flacco. PICK: Ravens
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
The Patriots are continuing their “Scorched Earth” 2015 tour with a trip to Indianapolis this week, and I really almost do not care what the point spread is for New England. If you think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady do not have some revenge on their mind here for Deflate-gate against Indianapolis, well, then you do not believe much in the revenge factor. I certainly do, and I think New England will take the opportunity here to step on the Colts on their way to a first round playoff bye this season. PICK: Patriots
(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Once again, I hate that is game is more than a field goal, but that tells me that Philadelphia is a strong home favorite here. That makes sense as the Eagles know that, even after a terrible start to the season so far, a home win here puts them at 3-3 and in a tie for first place in the division with all the rest of their division-mates experiencing a lot of injuries. That is another aspect of this game that is likely to hold back the Giants, with both Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. questionable for Sunday Night. Take the home team for a narrow win and cover, 31-27. PICK: Eagles
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- SEATTLE (-7) vs. CAROLINA
- GREEN BAY (-9.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- CHICAGO “FOR THE WIN” (+140) at DETROIT
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS (UNDER 57.5)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. CAROLINA
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- (Thursday) ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. CAROLINA
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- (Thursday) ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- ARIZONA (+3) at PITTSBURGH
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. CAROLINA
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- (Thursday) ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- ARIZONA (+3) at PITTSBURGH
- CINCINNATI (+3) at BUFFALO
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. CAROLINA
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- (Thursday) ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- ARIZONA (+3) at PITTSBURGH
- CINCINNATI (+3) at BUFFALO
- DENVER (+2) at CLEVELAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DENVER (-4) at CLEVELAND
- NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- (Thursday) ATLANTA (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- ARIZONA (-3) at PITTSBURGH
- CINCINNATI (-3) at BUFFALO
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Falcons, Cardinals, Bengals, Bears, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, Patriots
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-7 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 2-5 (28.6%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-3 (50%)
Last Week / Season
- OVERALL: 40-36-1 (52.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 25.8-41-1 (38.6%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 14-16 (46.7%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.