Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
I think it is pretty safe to say that we all wish that Week 2 never happened. If you had predicted that the Jaguars, Raiders, Browns, Buccaneers and Jets would all win their games, well, you did far better than myself and most of us. Week 2 has to go down as “just one of those weeks” and we have to move forward. Hopefully we learned something from it all and we get more insight towards Week 3. Let’s jump right in to this week’s contests:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) vs. WASHINGTON
Last week I stated that Thursday Night Football has a few simple rules to follow – always favor the home team on a short week, and in general expect lower offensive outputs. Well, that was looking pretty good last week until Denver started the strangeness that would continue for Week 2. Now comes Week 3’s divisional matchup between Washington and the Giants. Washington surprised many with a win at home last week against the Rams with a strong running game with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. You can bet that they will be wanting to establish the run again here on the road, and the Giahts know that it is coming. I expect New York to stack the box and force Kirk Cousins to beat them. The Giants are in full-on desperation mode, a theme you will see me address this week. New York cannot afford to drop to 0-3, especially with a home divisional loss. The NFC East is wide open with Dallas’ injuries, so I like the Giants to win this game on the road. I would love it more at a 3-point game instead of four, but it is what it is and I will take New York and Eli Manning to get it done. PICK: Giants
ATLANTA (-1) at DALLAS
The sky is falling for the Cowboys after losing both Dez Bryant and Tony Romo in consecutive weeks. Both are expected to be out until November, so Dallas has to figure out how to survive and compete without their key offensive players. Throw in that Jason Witten is hurting and the opportunity for Atlanta to go into Texas and steal a win is right before the Falcons. Matt Ryan just won on the road with a comeback at the Giants, and even with Tevin Coleman likely out I like the Falcons to secure the win. PICK: Falcons
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at TENNESSEE
The Colts cannot afford to lose this game. I said that last week, but this game is even bigger considering the 0-2 start for Indianapolis. A road loss in the division to the Titans will set them very far back even after only three games, so they are going to be playing all out for the victory here. Marcus Mariota has looked capable in his first two NFL starts, but I will put my chips behind Andrew Luck here. The line is quickly heading towards 3.5, so get Colts -3 if you can PICK: Colts
OAKLAND (+3.5) at CLEVELAND
I really don’t trust either team here, and I know picking Oakland goes against the “don’t take a West Coast team on the road early on the East Coast,” but I like the Raiders getting points here. Oakland moved the ball on the Ravens last week and racked up 37 points, while the Browns hit a few home runs against Tennessee at home to win 28-14 in Week 2. I don’t like either team, so give me the points. PICK: Raiders
BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
This one is all about desperation once again. Looking at the Bengals, I would have thought that they might be a slight favorite versus getting points, but Baltimore has never started 0-2 under Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh – yet here they sit at 0-2 staring at three big divisional games coming up. They have to win this game. For that reason alone, I take Baltimore in a close one, 27-24. PICK: Ravens
JACKSONVILLE (+14.5) at NEW ENGLAND
Giving up over two touchdowns in the NFL? I cannot do that, even if it is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady against the Jaguars. Jacksonville beat Miami last week, a good team, and New England struggled with Buffalo, considered to be a mediocre team right now. I think Allen Robinson alone can be the difference to keep Jacksonville within two scores. Patriots will win, 31-20. PICK: Jaguars
NEW ORLEANS (+7.5) at CAROLINA
The line on this game is all over the map, so of course take the biggest number you can get here. The Saints are 0-2 and go on the road to Carolina, who is 2-0 and a loss by New Orleans would significantly set them back at not just 0-3 but three games and a tiebreaker behind Carolina. Drew Brees or not, Sean Payton has to find a way to win this contest. Give me the Saints and the points just for pure need for New Orleans. PICK: Saints
PHILADELPHIA (+2.5) at NEW YORK JETS
Another desperate team here in Philadelphia. An 0-3 start would probably not be the end of the world in the NFC East right now, but a win would go a long way to righting that ship. The Jets come off of a big win on Monday Night Football at the Colts, so a short week could hurt them, along with injuries to Eric Decker and a hurting Chris Ivory. Philadelphia has to win this game, right? I am going to that well one more time with the Eagles. PICK: Eagles
HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
This is another tough one to call. At seven points I would love Tampa Bay, but that’s not what we get here. Even so, the Buccaneers just won on the road at New Orleans, and they travel to the Texans in Week 3. Houston kept it reasonably close against Carolina on the road, but a home win would go a long way to settling down the team and possibly put them in striking distance of the divisional lead. Throw in that Arian Foster might be back and I will take Houston at home to win by a touchdown, 24-17. PICK: Texans
MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
Both teams are right in the middle of the league, both by record at 1-1 and also in the visibility of good versus bad teams. To say it another way, no one is talking up the Vikings or the Chargers. This game is going to be close, and both squads have given up a lot more on the ground than through the air. That leads me to look at the backfields to decide, and I am going to go with Adrian Peterson for the win. Vikings 27-20. PICK: Vikings
PITTSBURGH (-1) at ST. LOUIS
The Steelers can score a lot, but they also struggle to stop the run. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Rams are still figuring out their running back situations, and that Nick Foles is Nick Foles. I will take the Steelers with LeVeon Bell back this week to win on the road over St. Louis. PICK: Steelers
ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Carson Palmer is rolling, and I do not trust the 49ers at all. San Francisco is out on the road for the second week in a row, while the Cardinals head home to get ready for a divisional rival. Give me Palmer, a strong defense and a good rookie running back in David Johnson to beat the 49ers by double digits. PICK: Cardinals
MIAMI (-3) vs. BUFFALO
Another team that probably feels desperate for a win here is Miami. They lost a very winnable game in Jacksonville last week, and now they head home for a divisional game against the Bills. Miami has to win this one if they want to remain viable in a hotly contested AFC East and AFC in general.. While not a must win, Miami needs this a lot more than Buffalo does, but the Rex Ryan’s defense will be up for the challenge. I like Ryan Tannehill to have a big day and lead the Dolphins to a win. PICK: Dolphins
SEAHAWKS (-14.5) vs. CHICAGO
Right now I see Seattle at home, desperate for a win at 0-2, facing the Bears without Jay Cutler. This will get ugly. PICK: Seahawks
DENVER (-3) vs. DETROIT
A well-rested Denver team travels to Detroit on Sunday Night Football. While there will be excitement in Motor City as they have never hosted on Sunday Night Football, will Matthew Stafford be healthy? Either way, I like the Denver defense with extra rest to win on the road. PICK: Broncos
KANSAS CITY (+7) at GREEN BAY
The Chiefs are not getting any respect after blowing a lead in one of the worst ways last Thursday against Denver. Now they go on the road to Green Bay for Monday Night Football, but the Packers are hurting on offense with Eddie Lacy questionable / probable. I like the Chiefs to keep this one close enough to cover, but the Packers get the close win, 27-24. PICK: Chiefs
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) vs. WASHINGTON
- ATLANTA (-1) at DALLAS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at TENNESSEE
- PHILADELPHIA (+2.5) at NEW YORK JETS
- PITTSBURGH (-1) at ST. LOUIS
- ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- MIAMI (-3) vs. BUFFALO
- DENVER (-3) vs. DETROIT
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Giants, Falcons, Colts, Eagles, Steelers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Broncos
Results
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-9 (53.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 2-12 (14.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-4 (33%)
Last Week / Season
- OVERALL: 15-16-1 (48.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 10.8-16-1 (40.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-8 (33%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
