Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Well, last week I did say that Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. Well, my record for the week certainly proved that right, as it was pretty mediocre for all of the games (8-7-1) and even worse on my best picks – but you have to like the outcome of my star picks (68.8% correct). Not too shabby. None of that matters now for Week 2, so let’s dive in for the next set of games:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3) vs. DENVER
Thursday Night Football has a few simple rules to follow – always favor the home team on a short week, and in general expect lower offensive outputs. That favors Kansas City here, and this game – which should go a long way in deciding the AFC West – will be huge for the Chiefs. Denver played extremely good defense last week at home against Baltimore while KC took care of the Texans in Houston. This will come down to how Denver can handle both Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles, which will be a tough challenge. Denver’s offense sputtered all game last week and I think the Chiefs can get just enough points to edge out a close, ugly win here, something like 19-16.. PICK: Chiefs
CAROLINA (-3) vs. HOUSTON
Carolina won in Week 1, but it was far from an impressive showing against Jacksonville. Cam Newton could not get going at all, and one of the two touchdowns was a “Pick 6” by the defense. Houston struggled as well at home against Kansas City as Travis Kelce ran wild against them, and that is just what Greg Olsen is hoping to do in Week 2. The Texans had a good passing offense going thanks to DeAndre Hopkins and veteran Nate Washington. If cornerback Josh Norman shuts down Hopkins, Washington will be asked to assume a much bigger role, and that is a tall order for the Texans who are still playing musical quarterbacks. I like Carolina at home to get a close win, 20-13. PICK: Panthers
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
This is a tough one to call as the Steelers have had a long time off (playing on Opening Thursday) while the 49ers have to not only travel to Pittsburgh but also played the second Monday Night Football almost 100 hours after the Steelers played New England. That’s a tough situation for any team to overcome, so that is a negative on the 49ers for Week 2. Looking at the matchups, Pittsburgh struggled against the Patriots on defense, which bodes well for San Francisco and Carlos Hyde. The 49ers should rely on Hyde again this week, but the Steelers should be able to move the ball better on the 49ers than Minnesota did in Week 1. The difference here is likely to be that Pittsburgh is both better on offense and more rested, but the points do scare me. I like the Steelers to win a game that they need (to not fall to 0-2), especially in front of a home crowd against a team on short rest. Give me the Steelers, 27-20. PICK: Steelers
NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
A strong argument can be made that no team looked worse than Tampa Bay in Week 1. That’s not good for the Buccaneers who now have to head to New Orleans to face Drew Brees in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome come Sunday. The Saints struggled on the road last week in Arizona, but the Cardinals are way better than Tampa Bay and the Saints play much, much better at home. Tampa Bay may show improvement, but it will not be nearly enough in New Orleans. PICK: Saints
DETROIT (+3) at MINNESOTA
Detroit started well in San Diego last week, but fizzled as the Chargers came back to win at home over the Lions, 33-28. Minnesota has yet to even sniff the end zone after a bad loss on the road in San Francisco late on Monday night, so a short week here is going to work against the Vikings. San Francisco was not supposed to be that tough of a defense, yet Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater could do next to nothing against the 49ers. Detroit did not stuff the run (or pass) well against San Diego, but the Vikings should be an easier matchup this week. Detroit needs to get a win here, but so do the Vikings. Tough call, but I will take the team with much better offensive talent and a better defensive line – plus a field goal head start. Detroit for the win, 27-20. PICK: Lions
ARIZONA (-1.5) at CHICAGO
The Bears were up and down against the Packers last week, but as usual of late, they fell short against Green Bay. Matt Forte did look strong against the Packers, but the Chicago defense was really lacking – which looks good for Carson Palmer entering Week 2. Despite not having Andre Ellington this week, the Cardinals should be able to move the ball at will against the Bears and secure a win on the road. Arizona gets a nice break in going to Chicago in September so the weather should be favorable as well. PICK: Cardinals
NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) at BUFFALO
The Patriots got a few extra days off after an Opening Thursday home win, but I bet they tuned in to the Bills’ game on Sunday and saw how Buffalo moved the ball well against Indianapolis in Week 1. Everyone will be wondering if Rob Gronkowski can get open this week, but I am sure that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will figure something out. New England needs to win this game as it is in the division and they need to make a statement early to the rest of the AFC that they are, once again, the team to beat. The Patriots will also show some defensive looks that Tyrod Taylor will never have seen before, which will create turnovers and short fields for the Patriots. I like New England to win big here, 27-13. PICK: Patriots
CINCINNATI (-3) vs. SAN DIEGO
Before I go to the “West Coast team playing at 1PM Eastern” well, let’s start by saying how solid the Bengals looked in Week 1. Granted the opposition, if you want to call it that, was Oakland – but Cincinnati still looked pretty good by any standard of measure. San Diego had to come back at home to beat Detroit, but the Bengals’ defense will be tougher than what the Chargers faced in Week 1. I also like both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill to run a lot against San Diego. Look for Cincinnati to move to 2-0 with a home win here, 27-17. PICK: Bengals
TENNESSEE (+1) at CLEVELAND
Las Vegas cannot even figure out who they like in this one as I have seen this game as +1 for both Tennessee and the Browns – which basically says “stay away”. This game looks to be Marcus Mariota vs. Johnny Manziel, which sounds like a fun contest if it was in college, but I do not see this one being that entertaining. I like how the Titans looked last week and Bishop Sankey may have another big game against a Cleveland defense that struggled with Chris Ivory in Week 1. I’ll take the Titans here. PICK: Titans
ATLANTA (+2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
Atlanta actually played quite well against Philadelphia on Monday night, controlling the Eagles with Julio Jones most of the contest. The Giants played in a very strange game on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys and somehow found a way to lose to Dallas despite a late lead and a defense that scored twice. While the Giants managed to keep Dez Bryant off of the scoreboard in Week 1, I do not expect Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to be kept from connecting for at least one touchdown. To me, Atlanta looks like the better team after one week and I will take that and the points here despite the Falcons going on the road. PICK: Falcons
ST. LOUIS (-3) at WASHINGTON
This is not so much a pick for the Rams as it is against Washington, who will be without DeSean Jackson and have to rely on Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon as their go-to targets. St. Louis controlled Jimmy Graham pretty well last week, so I do not expect much from Reed in Week 2. That leaves only Garcon to help Kirk Cousins, so I am not holding my breath. St. Louis could easily play down to Washington’s level after a big win by the Rams over the Seahawks last Sunday, but I think St. Louis can escape this one with a solid win behind good play on both sides of the ball. Rams by double digits here, 27-13. PICK: Rams
MIAMI (-6) at JACKSONVILLE
No one on Jacksonville scares me on either side of the ball. Jacksonville struggled to put up nine points against Carolina last week, and I could see the same in Week 2 against Miami. The Dolphins only scored 17 against Washington but they were taken out of their game plan to run Lamar Miller early, and I think they will correct that this week. The Dolphins should jump out early and run Miller all second half. PICK: Dolphins
BALTIMORE (-6.5) at OAKLAND
The Ravens did not look very good in Denver last week, but the good news for Baltimore is that they get a trip to Oakland for Week 2, which might be the only team that played as bad as Tampa Bay in Week 1. Baltimore’s defense looked solid against Denver, while Oakland struggled to even get on the Cincinnati side of the field until the fourth quarter. This one could be a battle of field goal kickers, but Justin Forsett should seize the opportunity here to run against a very week run defense. Forsett should lead the Ravens to a win here, 20-9. PICK: Ravens
PHILADELPHIA (-5) vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia gets a huge break in not having to face Dez Bryant when Dallas visits in Week 2 in a pivotal NFC East contest. The Eagles have to get the win here as they cannot afford to drop to 0-2 in the NFC and 0-1 in the division, let alone lose to Dallas at home. That makes this a gigantic game for the Eagles, and I think that they are more than capable of winning this game, but the question is if they can cover the points. Given the urgency here and that Dallas has to reinvent their offensive scheme without their top receiver, I am taking Philadelphia to win by a touchdown, 31-24. PICK: Eagles
SEATTLE (+3.5) at GREEN BAY
Green Bay may have won in Week 1, but I think that they were exposed by Matt Forte that they can be run on by a good rushing team. Marshawn Lynch (and Thomas Rawls) will be the focus for the Seahawks, who also will look at how Martellus Bennett exploited the Packer defense in Week 1 to maximize Jimmy Graham’s impact. Green Bay was able to rack up points on a bad Chicago defense, and while many will point to Seattle giving up 34 points to the Rams in Week 1, St. Louis always plays Seattle tough. So where does that leave us? Seattle has too many advantages on offense and defense not to secure this win on the road, even in Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. Seattle 27-24. PICK: Seahawks
(Monday) NEW YORK JETS (+7) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
This game is going to be a lot closer than people might think, as casual observers will look at Indianapolis and their bad loss in Buffalo to say that the Colts have to avoid an 0-2 start if they truly view their season as a Super Bowl or Bust type year. That sounds great except that the Colts really did look bad on offense and on defense, and the Jets ran the ball well last week and will look to continue that trend against what looked to be a thin and suspect Indianapolis run defense in Week 1. Andrew Luck will be without T.Y. Hilton this week, so he will have to find the open receiver and spread the ball around to try and will his team to a victory at home. I think the Colts get that win, but it will take far more effort and be a much closer contest than most people expect. PICK: Colts
Best Bets
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- ARIZONA (-1.5) at CHICAGO
- ATLANTA (+2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- ST. LOUIS (-3) at WASHINGTON
- BALTIMORE (-6.5) at OAKLAND
- SEATTLE (+3.5) at GREEN BAY
- DETROIT (“FOR THE WIN” +130) at MINNESOTA
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (+3) vs. DENVER
- MIAMI (EVEN) at JACKSONVILLE
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (+3) vs. DENVER
- MIAMI (EVEN) at JACKSONVILLE
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- ST. LOUIS (+3) at WASHINGTON
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (+3) vs. DENVER
- MIAMI (EVEN) at JACKSONVILLE
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- ST. LOUIS (+3) at WASHINGTON
- DETROIT (+9) at MINNESOTA
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (+3) vs. DENVER
- MIAMI (EVEN) at JACKSONVILLE
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- ST. LOUIS (+3) at WASHINGTON
- DETROIT (+9) at MINNESOTA
- BALTIMORE (-6.5) at OAKLAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DETROIT (+3) at MINNESOTA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3) vs. DENVER
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Kansas City, Detroit, Arizona, Atlanta, St. Louis, Baltimore
Results
Last Week / Season
- OVERALL: 8-7-1 (53.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 8.8-4-1 (68.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-4 (33%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.