Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last week I really emphasized using Las Vegas against themselves, as the lines are VERY good in January – so if you listened to me and followed my lead, you had a FANTASTIC weekend. I was 3-1 in picking games overall, but an amazing 93% correct (39.15-3) overall and 100% on teaser picks. That is the key in the playoffs, and I stand by it (can you guess what my advice is this week?). Only three games remain this year, starting with the AFC and NFC Championship contests this Sunday. I will break them down this week and be back one last time this season to discuss Super Bowl 50 and some prop bets. So, let’s dig in to the last multi-game Sunday of the year. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye Week Teams: None
Before we start on the Championship games for Sunday, let me give you a little background on how I pick these games. The first thing I do is try to predict what the Vegas numbers are going to be – both the spreads and the Over/Unders – and then I later look at the actual numbers. This helps me to evaluate how “in tune” I am to Las Vegas, and to see if there is any advantage or discrepancy to exploit. This week I was completely spot on in my predictions: New England -3, Over/Under 44, Carolina -3, Over/Under 48. These were my predictions across the board, and it 100% matched what Vegas was thinking. I mention this for this week not to brag (okay, maybe just a little) but to give you another indication of two things. First, I feel like I am really in tune with these playoffs and the teams left on the slate, and secondly to mention once again that Last Vegas numbers are very good this time of year. All of this leads me once again to advise everyone to use Las Vegas against Las Vegas as much as they can, and that is why I will be favoring teasers this week.
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at DENVER
(Sunday, 3:05PM Eastern, CBS)
Everyone is going to be talking about Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning for the 17th time, but it is clear that Peyton Manning is not the Manning of old. Manning has to be at least partly responsible for some of the dropped passes last week by his receivers, as his passes fluttered in the wind last Sunday. Manning was supposed to have squared off with Tom Brady in Week 12, but Manning’s injury forced the contest into a Brady vs. Osweiler matchup. That game was very entertaining, as Denver won 30-24 in overtime thanks to their ground game. Both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman had productive games with 14+ carries each and a score, including Anderson’s touchdown run to end overtime. I believe that, even with Manning back in the saddle and under center for the Broncos, Denver is still going to try and rely on their ground game and defense to try and keep Tom Brady on the sideline. Denver has to control the ball and the clock with both Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson, and that has the added benefits of not just keeping the New England offense off of the field but also to keep their top defense well rested, and also to take the pressure off of Manning and the passing game. The nightmare scenario for Denver is if New England gets out of the blocks quickly and gets a two score lead early, which might change their intended game plan quickly. Brady is a great quarterback, no question, but it goes without saying that he is better with Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman both available. Denver’s defense is tough, but Brady (and Bill Belichick) can find the matchups both before and during the game to exploit. Brady will certainly look to get the ball to both Edelman and Gronkowski, but if James White and Brandon Bolden get space out of the backfield, Brady will certainly look in their direction. The big matchup here comes from the health of Denver cornerback Chris Harris, as he was the best slot cornerback all season. If he is not 100%, both Edelman and Gronkowski should put up very good numbers. The weakness in this matchup is Peyton Manning, and I think the Patriots will try and stack the box and force Manning to try and beat them, and I do not think he has any gas left in that tank. I see this game going to New England, with about a 50% chance of a close win (a touchdown or less) and maybe a 25% or so chance of a sizeable victory over Denver. I only give Denver about a 25-30% chance of a victory here, and I see only maybe a 5-10% chance of a win by more than a touchdown, which would require big plays from the defense and/or special teams. Everything is leaning towards a New England win, and a cover of the field goal spread. PICK: Patriots
- Latest Lines: New England -3, Over / Under 44 to 44.5 points
- Money Lines: New England -160 to -170, Denver +140 to +150
- Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Denver Broncos 20
- Pick: Patriots
CAROLINA (-3) vs. ARIZONA
(Sunday, 6:40PM Eastern, FOX)
This is the tougher game of the two this weekend to predict. Both teams can rack up points quickly, and neither has played one another this season. Arizona has been led by Carson Palmer, a variety of running backs and underrated defensive and special teams units all season to a 14-2 regular season record. Carolina starts with Cam Newton and his MVP-worthy campaign, but the running game with Jonathan Stewart has been solid, and the secondary led by Josh Norman had been outstanding all season long. Questions circled all around the Panthers and whether their 15-1 record was truly indicative of how good of a team they were, but there is no question that Cam Newton led this club and made it better and better as the season progressed. Several times Newton threw for multiple touchdowns but spread the ball around to numerous receivers. Newton threw five touchdowns against Washington in Week 11, all to five different targets. Week 13 was similar – five touchdown passes to four receivers (Ted Ginn Jr. caught two). Week 15 – five more touchdown passes, again to four receivers (Ginn had two once again). So what is my point here? Arizona cannot key on Ted Ginn Jr. and TE Greg Olsen, because Cam Newton will just find someone else that is open. That will be the problem for the Cardinals on defense. Further, both Newton and Stewart can get the ground game going, so the Arizona defense has to play both phases of the Carolina offense. So how does Arizona match up on offense? If everyone was at full strength, it would come down to which receiver is being blanketed by Norman, who rarely if ever covers a slot receiver. That should open things up for Larry Fitzgerald and either John Brown or Michael Floyd about half the time each (as Brown and Floyd will likely see Norman 50% of the time). The problem I have with looking at the Cardinals’ passing attack this way is we are forgetting how troublesome the last game was for Carson Palmer. I still do not think his finger is right, and he looked tentative in the red zone last week against Green Bay all game long. Last week we all saw what linebacker Luke Kuechly can do against passes over the middle, and he can blanket or shadow David Johnson out of the backfield as well. I really like Carolina’s chances here with a complete offense and strong defense against a quarterback who could struggle. Similar to how I feel about New England, I think Carolina has a very good chance of winning and about a 20-25% chance of a big win at home against the Cardinals. I only give Arizona about a 30% chance of winning, and virtually no chance (maybe 5%) of winning big. That all points to taking the Panthers, which I am this week. PICK: Panthers
- Latest Lines: Carolina Panthers -3, Over / Under 47.5 to 48 points
- Money Lines: Carolina -155 to -170, Arizona +135 to +145
- Prediction: Carolina Panthers 30, Arizona Cardinals 20
- Pick: Panthers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Before I get to my picks for the Conference Championship Weekend, I thought it might be valuable to provide my rankings of the common eight picks (against the spread, over/under) for these games:
- NEW ENGLAND (-3) at DENVER
- CAROLINA (-3) vs. ARIZONA
- CAROLINA (-3) vs. ARIZONA (OVER 47.5)
- NEW ENGLAND at DENVER (OVER 44)
Just like last week, I am pointing this out again:
Something else to note is that Las Vegas is VERY good at setting lines on a weekend like this. As a result, I much favor picking teaser bets because you are essentially betting that Las Vegas will be right – and using Vegas against Vegas. I always like that on weekends like this.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- NEW ENGLAND (-3) at DENVER
- CAROLINA (-3) vs. ARIZONA
- NEW ENGLAND at DENVER (OVER 44)
- CAROLINA (-3) vs. ARIZONA (OVER 47.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (+3) at DENVER (OVER 38)
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (+3) at DENVER (UNDER 50.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: CAROLINA (+3) vs. ARIZONA (OVER 41.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- NEW ENGLAND (+3) at DENVER
- CAROLINA (+3) vs. ARIZONA
PICK OF THE WEEK: New England
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 3-1 (75%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 39.15-3 (92.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-0 (100%)
Postseason
- OVERALL: 5-3 (62.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 48.6-9 (84.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-2 (66.7%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 132-119-5 (52.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 193.05-169-2 (53.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 54-49-3 (52.4%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
