Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last week was a bit of a mixed bag, as I went 2-2 overall and in my Picks of the Week, but I did post a solid 61% win percentage on my Best Bets. This week is more challenging as we have four winners advancing to play four teams coming off of a bye week. Recency bias against the four teams with the week off plus having watched four teams win often leads people (and the public) to go for the teams that advanced from Wild Card Weekend, but there are plenty of reasons to like the home teams most of the time in this round. So which ones do I like the most? Let’s find out:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Teams Returning from a Bye Week: New England, Arizona, Carolina, Denver
Bye Week Teams: None
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
(Saturday, 4:35PM Eastern, CBS)
In a theme we will hear quite a bit this weekend, one rested team hosts a banged up club heading into town. Kansas City and New England fit that motif, as the Chiefs have injury questions swirling around both Jeremy Maclin (high ankle sprain) and Spencer Ware (ankle). The Patriots are getting healthier, however, as Julian Edelman is likely to return to action this Saturday after two months to rest his toe (he will wear a steel plate in his shoe), but he has already been practicing for weeks so he is much more likely to contribute. News this week about Rob Gronkowski missing practice was tied to DE Chandler Jones’ incident at Gronkowski’s house that led to Jones’ hospitalization. Both players are likely to be healthy enough to play Sunday, but Jones could get some form of in-game punishment. Throwing all of that to the side, Tom Brady has had two weeks to get ready for the Chiefs to visit, and both he and Bill Belichick are very hard to beat with two weeks to prepare. Alex Smith would have a difficult time with the Patriots even if Maclin and Ware were at full strength, so choosing to side with the Patriots at home against a team at less than full capacity feels like the right call to me. Note – late news has TE Rob Gronkowski with a knee issue and a possible game time decision, which would impact this game in a significant way. I still like New England if he plays, but if Gronkowski is out, then I would fade this game completely. PICK: Patriots
- Latest Lines: New England -4.5 to 5, Over / Under 42 to 42.5 points
- Money Lines: New England -225 to -250, Kansas City +190 to +200
- Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Kansas City Chiefs 16
- Pick: Patriots
ARIZONA (-7) vs. GREEN BAY
(Saturday, 8:15PM Eastern, NBC)
The Cardinals host the Packers on Saturday night in the first of three rematches this weekend. Arizona defeated Green Bay 38-8 in Week 16, dominating both sides of the ball and both trenches as well, which is not something that can easily be fixed in a matter of weeks. The only good news for Green Bay is that both DE Cory Redding and OLB Alex Okafor have since been placed on IR, but Arizona does have some depth on defense to still apply pressure to Aaron Rodgers. Look for Dwight Freeney to be on the field and rushing Rodgers more often this week. I do expect Green Bay’s passing game to improve some in this matchup, but David Johnson should still find plenty of room to run for Arizona and Carson Palmer should be able to pick apart the Packer secondary with Michael Floyd, John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald once again. While a complete replay of that 38-8 game is unlikely, especially two defensive scores by the Cardinals, Arizona should still be able to control the game and progress with a victory – just with a slightly smaller margin. PICK: Cardinals
- Latest Lines: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 to 7, Over / Under 50 points
- Money Lines: Arizona -280 to -335, Green Bay +240 to +275
- Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 34, Green Bay 20
- Pick: Cardinals
CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
(Sunday, 1:05PM Eastern, FOX)
Here is yet another rematch of teams that faced each other this year, but that matchup was way back in Week 6. Carolina went to Seattle and won the game 27-23 in dramatic fashion with a late touchdown pass from Cam Newton to Greg Olsen. Olsen had a big day that day, racking up 131 yards and that touchdown on seven catches. Again, while I do not expect a total repeat performance from three months ago, much can be learned from that contest. First, Seattle struggles against good tight ends, so expect Olsen to be the leading receiver once again for Carolina. Ted Ginn Jr. was rather quiet that day, catching just one of three targets, but two of the incompletions were deep passes and one should have drawn a flag. As for Seattle, Marshawn Lynch struggled with 17 rushes accounting for just 54 yards, barely above three yards per carry. Only a short touchdown plunge saved his fantasy day. Even if Lynch is at full strength this week (he claims that he is), I do not see a big performance coming out of him this week. The biggest takeaway for me is not just that Carolina won in Seattle, but that the Panthers greatly benefited here by having their bye week right before this contest. That bodes well for this week as Seattle had to fight the Vikings tooth and nail last week (and were very fortunate to win, 10-9) while Carolina rested once again. The Carolina secondary will blanket Doug Martin, forcing Russell Wilson to use other targets to advance the ball. Notable from that Week 6 matchup was Jimmy Graham’s big day – and Graham will not be available (injured reserve). Wilson is a creative playmaker and he should be good for a few plays, but I like the Panthers overall with Cam Newton, Greg Olsen and a fresh Jonathan Stewart. PICK: Panthers
- Latest Lines: Carolina Panthers -1.5 to -2, Over / Under 43.5 to 44 points
- Money Lines: Carolina -120 to -130, Seattle +100 to +110
- Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, Seattle Seahawks 17
- Pick: Panthers
DENVER (-6.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
(Sunday, 4:40PM Eastern, CBS)
This game is one of the tougher calls of the week, for certain. I had to wait to finish this article this week until Friday because I wanted as much injury updates I could get, and word broke Friday morning that Antonio Brown is out for this game. That is huge. These two teams squared off in Week 15 with the Steelers prevailing 34-27, but many things were different in that contest. It was in Pittsburgh, Antonio Brown had a huge day (16-189-2 on 18 targets) and Brock Osweiler was starting for Denver. Fast forward about a month and we have no Brown, a banged up Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning as your Broncos quarterback – with the game in Denver. Oh, and I almost forgot to mention – DeAngelo Williams is also likely out, forcing Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman to pick up that slack. Brown’s absence is the biggest factor here as not only will his big numbers be missed, but he opened the field up for both Martavis Bryant (10-87, 14 targets) and Markus Wheaton (6-62-1, 11 targets) that day for two additionally strong performances. Ben Roethlisberger’s arm is questionable after the Cincinnati battle last week, so his ability to go deep will be a major question mark. Heath Miller and Toussaint will likely see more short passes while Bryant and Wheaton will be asked to get past a very tough set of Denver cornerbacks. The Broncos will be led by their defense and Peyton Manning will only be asked not to lose this game. I expect Manning to distribute the ball to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders throughout the afternoon and set up the run game for both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. If the Steelers can keep this to a lower scoring affair, something like 17-14, they have a shot – but if Denver starts to pressure Roethlisberger and gets a two score lead, I can see this one slipping away quickly. That’s likely what I envision here, with the Broncos winning by a touchdown and possibly more. PICK: Broncos
- Latest Lines: Denver -6.5 to -7, Over / Under 39.5 to 40 points
- Money Lines: Denver -320 to -330, Pittsburgh +260 to +270
- Prediction: Denver Broncos 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 17
- Pick: Denver
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Before I get to my picks for the Divisional Round Weekend, I thought it might be valuable to provide my rankings of the common eight picks (against the spread, over/under) for these games:
- CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- ARIZONA (-7) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-6.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 50)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. KANSAS CITY (OVER 42)
- CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 43.5)
- DENVER vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 39.5)
Something else to note is that Las Vegas is VERY good at setting lines on a weekend like this. As a result, I much favor picking teaser bets because you are essentially betting that Las Vegas will be right – and using Vegas against Vegas. I always like that on weekends like this.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- ARIZONA (-7) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-6.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 50)
- PITTSBURGH “FOR THE WIN” (+270) at DENVER (Odds too good to pass up)
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY (OVER 36)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- CAROLINA (+4.5) vs. SEATTLE
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- CAROLINA (+4.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- CAROLINA (+4.5) vs. SEATTLE
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.5-1 ODDS):
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- DENVER vs. PITTSBURGH (UNDER 46)
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- DENVER vs. PITTSBURGH (UNDER 46)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. KANSAS CITY (OVER 36)
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (10-1 ODDS):
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- DENVER vs. PITTSBURGH (UNDER 46)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. KANSAS CITY (OVER 36)
- CAROLINA (+4.5) vs. SEATTLE
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- 6-POINT TEASER: ARIZONA (-1) vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 44)
- 6-POINT TEASER: DENVER (-0.5) VS. PITTSBURGH (UNDER 46)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Arizona, Denver
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 14.55-11 (56.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 5-2 (71.4%)
Season
- OVERALL: 91-82-3 (52.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 99-124-1 (44.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 39-38-2 (50.6%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.