Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 16 was a mediocre one, which I will gladly take with so many upsets across the board. With that said, I caution everyone to tread lightly in Week 17. Odd things happen this time of year, so be careful.
Week 17 is a tough, tough week to make picks, but I am going to use two simple rules this week as I think it is the best strategy:
- Pick teams that are motivated, exclusively. That means if a team has something on the line, I am picking them. If two teams have things on the line, well, I will treat it like a normal game to pick. If only one team does, it should make this pretty simple.
- Expect exaggerated results. Week 17 is full of “haves” and “have nots”, meaning some teams care and some don’t. That should lead to big margins of victory – so I am pretty much ignoring the possibility of a team without anything at stake covering a point spread.
Let’s see how those two rules go for this final week of the regular season. Note I will still be writing this in January for the playoffs.
Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: None.
CINCINNATI (-9) vs. BALTIMORE
Let’s start with an easy one. Baltimore beat their archrivals last week in the Steelers, so I expect a major letdown for the Ravens. Cincinnati is teetering on the edge of missing a bye, so they must win this game and hope Denver stumbles enough to open the door for the Bengals to get a bye (the simplest path – Bengals win, Broncos lose). So I am taking Cincinnati to win and cover. PICK: Bengals
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
The NFC East title is already decided, as is the fate of now former head coach Chip Kelly. The Eagles are spent now and ready to hit the offseason, while the Giants have a little bit of unfinished business. Odell Beckham Jr. wants to end on a high note, and Eli Manning is more than willing to oblige. I see New York running up the score against an unmotivated and lackluster Philadelphia team in free fall. PICK: Giants
ATLANTA (-4) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Neither team appears motivated right now, but Drew Brees is beat up and the Saints are not the same team on the road as they are at home. Atlanta just beat Carolina, so they will want to build on that and close on a high note before their home crowd with a win. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are all looking to finish strong, while New Orleans just wants to finish. PICK: Falcons
NEW YORK JETS (-3) at BUFFALO
The Jets just beat the Patriots in overtime and now they are looking for one more victory to get them into the playoffs. A win in Buffalo is all they need, so I expect them to play hard on both sides of the ball and get that job done. Buffalo is a solid team but the Jets are much more motivated and that’s all I really need to know. Fitzpatrick for the win. PICK: Jets
DETROIT (+1) at CHICAGO
Alshon Jeffery is on injured reserve, which means the Bears have checked out. Detroit has some motivation as they have been eliminated for about a month now, yet they continue to try and win each contest. I am not sure the same can be said about the Bears, who are more interested in seeing if Jeremy Langford is their next feature back. PICK: Lions
PITTSBURGH (-9.5) at CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is angry, needs a win, and hates the Browns. Cleveland is not playing well. What was the question? Pittsburgh will pummel Cleveland this week, but it may not be enough for the Steelers to get in the postseason. PICK: Steelers
WASHINGTON (+3.5) at DALLAS
This is a tough one to pick, as Washington could be resting players this week with nothing at stake. Either way, Dallas is a hot mess and anyone that Washington puts on the field is going to be more motivated than the Cowboys. Can you imagine Robert Griffin III’s final start for Washington? Neither can I, but we might see it this week. Washington plus points seems like the right choice given all that. PICK: Washington
HOUSTON (-6) vs. JACKSONVILLE
The Texans control their own path to the postseason and to a winning record. If they beat the Jaguars, they will win the AFC South outright and host either the Jets or Chiefs (most likely) next week. Jacksonville struggled against New Orleans last week and I think they have run out of gas. The Texan defense will be geared up for this one to secure the division, and I am ready to call Houston as the divisional champs. PICK: Texans
INDIANAPOLIS (-6) vs. TENNESSEE
The Colts need to win on Sunday and have nine games go their way to make the postseason. None of those other games matter unless Indianapolis wins, so I think the Colts get the victory and hope for the best – but I would not be holding my breath for Indianapolis winning the AFC South. PICK: Colts
NEW ENGLAND (-10) at MIAMI
The Patriots have not secured home field and the #1 spot in the AFC playoffs yet, so they will go for the win in Miami this week. Bad news for the Dolphins, who are already looking to take their talents to South Beach and call it a year. The Patriots should cruise to a one-sided win here. PICK: Patriots
CAROLINA (-10) vs. TAMPA BAY
Bad news for Tampa Bay this week because the Panthers lost last week and are now motivated to beat up on the Buccaneers. Carolina has to win this game to secure the #1 spot in the NFC playoffs, and I bet that Carolina is very upset on both sides of the ball for a loss to Atlanta last week. Tampa Bay may want Doug Martin to win the rushing title, but the Panther defense will have a lot to say about that. Carolina and Cam Newton will play hard in this one to secure the top spot and then rest next week. PICK: Panthers
KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. OAKLAND
The Raiders have been playing some good football of late, but none of that compares to how well Kansas City has been since their 1-5 start. A nine game winning streak can move to 10 on Sunday and it should as Kansas City needs a victory to lock up at least the #5 seed in the playoffs, but if Denver loses to the Chargers, the Chiefs move all the way up to the AFC West division champion and #3 seed. Regardless, the Chiefs want to keep their winning ways and momentum going, so look for their tenth win a row to come this Sunday. PICK: Chiefs
SEATTLE (+6.5) at ARIZONA
So which team is the best in the NFC right now? Seattle could have staked their claim to that title if they had not dropped a very winnable game to St. Louis last Sunday. Arizona has been the stealthy but dominant team, lurking right behind Carolina but dominating on both sides of the ball despite injuries all year long. Now both teams are looking to improve their spots and seeds for the playoffs and also build winning momentum. A win for the Cardinals coupled with an upset of Carolina by the Buccaneers would move the Cardinals up to the #1 seed (otherwise they are #2). Seattle will be the #6 seed unless they win and the Vikings lose to the Packers on Sunday Night Football, in which case Seattle moves to #5 and visits Washington next weekend. That is probably the best path for Seattle, so both teams are motivated to win – a first it seems this week. So moving back to the better team analysis, I have Arizona as a 4-5 point favorite in most instances, so for the first time this week (and possibly last) I am taking Seattle and the points here. PICK: Seahawks
DENVER (-8.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver got the big win last Sunday that they needed, so now all they have to do is win this game at home against the woeful Chargers to secure the AFC West and a bye as either the #1 seed (if New England loses) or the #2 seed (Patriots win). If Denver somehow loses, all bets are all off and Denver could finish anywhere from #2 to #3 or even as the #5 or #6 Wild Card team. See the motivation? Oh yes, the Chargers blew a game to Oakland last Thursday and are completely devoid of viable receivers on offense. Denver could win and cover 10-0 here. PICK: Broncos
ST. LOUIS (-3.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
Two teams playing out the string, but both are playing decent football. This could be ugly, so take the team with the better defense and running game, and Case Keenum can manage the ball well enough for the Rams and Todd Gurley to win If you can, avoid this one. PICK: Rams
MINNESOTA (+3.5) at GREEN BAY
A giant monkey can be ripped off of the Minnesota backs if they are able to go to Wisconsin and secure not just a win at Lambeau but also win the NFC North all at the same time. Green Bay just got torched by Arizona last week while the Vikings scored 49 points against a hapless Giants team. Adrian Peterson will want to run all day and Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota defense will do just enough to get a victory in this one. I like the Vikings to have about a 40-50% chance to win outright and about 20-25% to cover, so you better believe I am taking the points. PICK: Vikings
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- NEW YORK JETS (-3) at BUFFALO
- WASHINGTON (+3.5) at DALLAS
- KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. OAKLAND
- SEATTLE (+6.5) at ARIZONA
- MINNESOTA (+3.5) at GREEN BAY
- WASHINGTON “FOR THE WIN” (+165) at DALLAS
- SEATTLE “FOR THE WIN” (+250) at ARIZONA
- MINNESOTA “FOR THE WIN” (+160) at GREEN BAY
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.8-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND
- DENVER (-2.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND
- DENVER (-2.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- PITTSBURGH (-3.5) at CLEVELAND
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.5-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. OAKLAND
- DENVER (-2.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- PITTSBURGH (-3.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (+12.5) at ARIZONA
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Giants, Jets, Texans, Chiefs
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 9.15-14 (39.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Season
- OVERALL: 125-111-4 (53.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 175.35-166-2 (51.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 53-46-3 (53.5%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.