Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 15 was another winning week across the board, as I went 8-7-1 overall but 4-2-1 in my Picks of the Week and, best of all, 12.8-5-1 in my “Star” picks. That puts my season-long record above 52% for all three categories, so if you have been using these numbers, you had some fun and broke even against the casinos and books this year. Not so bad. Now, we have two weeks to go, so let’s get to some Week 16 selections. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: None.
(Thursday) SAN DIEGO (+6) at OAKLAND
I went back and forth on this game several times, mostly due to that big point spread here. San Diego torched Miami with Danny Woodhead’s remarkable four touchdown performance, but Oakland is pretty solid against running backs. The weakness of the Raiders has been against the pass, and in particular against tight ends, so Antonio Gates could have a big Thursday this week. This game has an interesting subplot with both teams possibly moving to Los Angeles next year, and this is Oakland’s last home game. Can the Raiders win their final home contest against the Chargers? I think that they can, but the points are a bit too many for me. Not in love with this pick, but I am taking San Diego and the points in what could be a wet, sloppy game in the rain. PICK: Chargers
(Saturday) WASHINGTON (+3) at PHILADELPHIA
The NFC East could be decided on Saturday night. Philadelphia needs a win here to keep their playoff hopes going, but the Eagles are more desperate than Washington as a loss on Saturday for the Eagles and they are out of the divisional race – and Washington gets the crown. With the way that Kirk Cousins has been playing and the porous defense by the Eagles, odds are very much in favor of a Washington win here. The Eagles also lost in D.C. earlier this year with a Cousins’ touchdown pass in the final minute for the victory. Both teams play each other tight most of the time, and this one should be no different. Given all that and that Washington is getting a 3-point head start, I am going against the home team and calling for Washington to be a playoff team by Sunday morning. PICK: Washington
CAROLINA (-7) at ATLANTA
One team is on a roll, and the other is in freefall. I do not care that Atlanta beat Jacksonville (which was surprising) – Carolina is 14-0 and still has motivation to win, not just for the reason of going for a perfect season, but for getting the top seed ahead of Arizona. Cam Newton is red hot, and the Panthers were cruising to a big win against the Giants last week but then the wheels almost fell off in the final 20 minutes against the Giants. Carolina survived a late rally, but I am of the opinion that the defense was embarrassed by not finishing the game well last week. Carolina should fix that this week against the Falcons, a team that the Panthers shut out just two weeks ago. PICK: Panthers
PITTSBURGH (-10) at BALTIMORE
Some historians will point to the Ravens-Steelers matchups over the years and highlight that these two teams’ contests have been decided by a field goal or less in 6 of the last 9 – but that’s “fun with numbers” for me. Sure, the matchup earlier this year was an overtime win for Baltimore, but the three games prior to that were all one-sided affairs, with winning margins of 20, 20 and 13 points. Even if you go back to the October 1st game this season, Baltimore should have lost that game as Pittsburgh missed two field goals in the fourth quarter and poor offensive execution in overtime. Fast forward to this week and we have a Baltimore team that barely managed two touchdowns last Sunday (one was a Hail Mary before halftime) hosting a Steelers’ team that just beat Denver’s defense for 34 points. What was the question here? Pittsburgh 34, Baltimore 13. PICK: Steelers
BUFFALO (-6) vs. DALLAS
I could analyze this one to death, but really – it comes down to three things. One, Buffalo is at home for their final two games, so they get a plus in that column. Two, Dallas is done. Two words – Kellen Moore – do I need to say more (pun intended)? I liked Moore at Boise State, but this is not Boise State. Third and final point – Dallas stinks against the run lately, and Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee can combine for a potent rushing attack for Buffalo. Can you guess my pick? I think you can. PICK: Bills
DETROIT (-8.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Detroit came back to win against New Orleans on Monday, and now they get to go home against a beat up San Francisco 49ers squad that has to play an early game on Sunday. That screams Lions, right? Well, I cannot take Detroit with a ton of confidence, even against a bad San Francisco team, and especially giving up more than a touchdown, but that is my call right now. This game’s only impact is on the Top 10 draft picks for 2016. I think Detroit is playing better right now, and I will take them with Shaun Draughns banged up for San Francisco. PICK: Lions
KANSAS CITY (-11.5) vs. CLEVELAND
The Chiefs are rolling, and believe it or not, they have a shot at the AFC West title still if Denver loses out and the Chiefs keep winning. With two home games for Kansas City that are very winnable (Cleveland, Oakland), starting with the Browns. Cleveland managed just one touchdown in Seattle last week and 13 points sounds like their max output right now, which means as long as the Chiefs get 25 or more, they should cover. At home, given how Kansas City is rolling and that the Browns are getting burned left and right by wide receivers this season, I like Alex Smith connecting with Jeremy Maclin for a big game on Sunday I like the Chiefs to win and win easily. PICK: Chiefs
INDIANAPOLIS (+1.5) at MIAMI
This is one of those contests that could be a miserable game to watch. The Colts are reeling on offense with elder statesmen Frank Gore and Matt Hasselbeck all banged up, but Indianapolis has to try and win and hope Houston stumbles to give back the AFC South. I do not think that will happen, but I am not sure how much fight is left in the Dolphins. For some reason, they forget to give the ball to Lamar Miller, which baffles me to no end, until I noticed Miller is a free agent and maybe the team is trying to look more at Jay Ajayi? I don’t get that. Ryan Tannehill has been playing poorly, so really I do not know what to expect in this game except bad football most likely. I will take the Colts here with more at stake and the better team, but I really don’t care much for either side. Don’t touch this game if you do not have to. PICK: Colts
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at NEW YORK JETS
Both teams have something to play for, as the Jets are on the verge of being on the outside looking in at the postseason if they do not win out, as both Pittsburgh and Kansas City have easier schedules this week and next. That does not mean New England will just let the win – of course not. Tom Brady wants to get that offense humming, and he and Bill Belichick always want to play well against New York. The Jets are playing respectable-to-good football week after week, but “good” may not be good enough against New England. This one comes down to Brady finding his spots to throw against the Jets and trying to pick them apart through the air, as the Jets are solid against the run while New England is picking up free agents to try and assemble a run game. Throw in that a win here could lock up the #1 seed if the Bengals lose to Denver, and I definitely like the Patriots to win by more than just a field goal. PICK: Patriots
TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. CHICAGO
What a downer last week for Jamies Winston and company. Losing to St. Louis on the road in the #KetchupvsMustard game last Thursday eliminated the slim chance of a playoff spot for Tampa Bay, but I like the Buccaneers a lot in this spot. The Bears defense is a mess, having given up five scores to Teddy Bridgewater last week, so Winston could go nuts here with Mike Evans. Throw in that this is the final home game for Tampa Bay before they have to go and probably lose to Carolina in Week 17, so this is where the Buccaneers get their final win of the season, and by a big margin. PICK: Buccaneers
HOUSTON (+4.5) at TENNESSEE
Is this number for real? I projected this game as the Texans as the favorite, and now they are getting not just a few, but more than a field goal against one of the worst teams in the league? Mariota is done for the year, and now I see Brian Hoyer is practicing as of Wednesday. Alfred Blue had over 100 yards rushing last week and the Texans held the Colts to 10 points last week. What am I missing? I don’t know, but this is my top pick of the week. Houston wins this game by a touchdown or more. (Note – if the line moves or changes, I still like Houston up to -5). PICK: Texans
JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at NEW ORLEANS
I have no idea how Jacksonville did not win last week at home against Atlanta, and this game has all the makings of a letdown performance. That said, New Orleans has a terrible pass defense, and that is the strength of the Jaguars. Blake Bortles is in the Top 5 passers for touchdowns this season with 31, and he could get 2-3 easily against the Saints. New Orleans could be hurting this week if Drew Brees cannot go, or if he tries to go but reinjures his now weakened right foot. New Orleans is not the tough opponent at home that they once were back when they had a real defense, and Brees was a little younger and had Jimmy Graham. I like Jacksonville to keep this one close and possibly win outright, 30-27. PICK: Jaguars
ARIZONA (-4) vs. GREEN BAY
Arizona is red hot right now, and they are the quietest 12-2 team you would ever find. All the focus is on Carolina, but the only reason that the Panthers have not clinched the top seed in the NFC is the success of the Cardinals. Arizona has a strong defense and a well-balanced offense that can exploit the weakness of any given opponent. This week I see David Johnson running wild again, maybe not for three touchdowns, but probably for over 100 and a score against the Packers. Green Bay is getting better overall, but a 24-14 win in Oakland last week leaves me unconvinced. Green Bay is good, Arizona is better. Cardinals by a touchdown, 27-20. PICK: Cardinals
SEATTLE (-13) vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle is in line to lock up the #5 seed in the playoffs if they win and the Vikings lose this week to the Giants, and next week the Seahawks have to visit Arizona, so there is plenty of incentive for Seattle to win their final home game of 2015. The Rams have two options on offense – Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin. I think Seattle can corral both of them enough to keep them to one combined touchdown, and then Russell Wilson will take care of the rest. Seattle 38, St. Louis 13. PICK: Seahawks
MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Vikings lost Adrian Peterson for part of their matchup with the Bears last week, so Teddy Bridgewater just took over and produced five touchdowns, including a rushing score. This week Minnesota hosts the Giants in what should be a very cold night game where Tom Coughlin may turn Vikings purple by the end of the night. The Giants were torched for 35 points early by Carolina on Sunday, came back to tie the game at 35-35, only to lose it 38-35. Here’s the deal here. Minnesota needs to keep winning to have a shot at the NFC North and also secure the 5th or 6th spot in the NFC. That 5th spot is worth way more as you get to go to the NFC East winner, which should be easier than going to Green Bay (if Minnesota finishes as the second Wild Card team). See the motivation? Add in Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater wanting to perform well on national TV and I see Minnesota taking care of business against the Giants with a balanced offense that can cover for the Vikings’ lack of linebacker depth to stop the run. Minnesota 27, Giants 20. PICK: Vikings
(Monday) CINCINNATI (+3.5) at DENVER
Denver has the better defense, at least on paper and before the Pittsburgh game, but this battle of backup quarterbacks will come down to who makes the fewest errors. I like the Broncos defense to try and force A.J. McCarron to beat them, but we all saw last week how a team can beat Denver, or at least a team with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. A.J. Green can give Brown a run for his money, but McCarron is now Roethlisberger. I believe that Cincinnati will try and use screen passes to Giovani Bernard and runs with Jeremy Hill to run the ball, and then play action pass to Green. Then the pressure moves to Denver’s offense, which has struggled at times all season. This game could be an epic contest even with backup quarterbacks as so much is at stake with both teams fighting for the #2 spot in the AFC, and Denver still not being secure as a divisional winner or even a playoff team. Denver has a ton of motivation, but lots of pressure too. Because the Bengals are getting 3.5 points and are coming off a win, I like them slightly more here – but either side can win this one. PICK: Bengals
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Saturday) WASHINGTON (+3) at PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (-10) at BALTIMORE
- TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. CHICAGO
- JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at NEW ORLEANS
- ARIZONA (-4) vs. GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Saturday) WASHINGTON “FOR THE WIN” (+145) at PHILADELPHIA
- SAN FRANCISCO “FOR THE WIN” (+425) at DETROIT (Too good a number to pass up)
- HOUSTON “FOR THE WIN” (+170, ESTIMATED) at TENNESSEE
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+160) at NEW ORLEANS
- (Monday) CINCINNATI “FOR THE WIN” (+170) at DENVER
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) at ATLANTA
- HOUSTON (+10.5) at TENNESSEE
- ARIZONA (+2) vs. GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.5-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) at ATLANTA
- HOUSTON (+10.5) at TENNESSEE
- ARIZONA (+2) vs. GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- KANSAS CITY (-11.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) at ATLANTA
- HOUSTON (+10.5) at TENNESSEE
- ARIZONA (+2) vs. GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- KANSAS CITY (-11.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-10) at BALTIMORE
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (10-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) at ATLANTA
- HOUSTON (+10.5) at TENNESSEE
- ARIZONA (+2) vs. GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- KANSAS CITY (-11.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-10) at BALTIMORE
- TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. CHICAGO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- CAROLINA (-7) at ATLANTA
- KANSAS CITY (-11.5) vs. CLEVELAND
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- HOUSTON (+4.5) at TENNESSEE
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Washington, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Houston, Arizona, Minnesota
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-7-1 (53.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 12.8-5-1 (71.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-2-1 (66.7%)
Season
- OVERALL: 116-104-4 (52.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 166.2-152-2 (52.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 49-43-3 (53.3%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
