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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 11 was not good, but I have to put that behind me and focus on another challenging week with all 32 teams back in action and three games on Thursday. Tough calls lie ahead, but I shall do my best as always. I think I will take a K.I.S.S. approach, especially with little time to do research on a short week. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: None.
Teams returning from a bye: New York Giants, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New Orleans
(Thursday) DETROIT (EVEN) vs. PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles and the Lions are both a mess, so give me the home team with better talent at quarterback, wide receiver and in the trenches. Philadelphia just got trashed by Tampa Bay and the Lions are more than capable of racking up a big number as well. PICK: Lions
(Thursday) CAROLINA (+1.5) at DALLAS
I had to read this line several times. A 10-0 team getting a point at Dallas, who has what, three wins on the year? Sure, Romo is back, but you want to talk about a total lack of respect for the Panthers here. I think Cam busts out again this week and takes the Cowboys to task with a big win on Thursday.. PICK: Panthers
(Thursday) GREEN BAY (-8.5) vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are due for a breakout game, and the Bears soft defense is just the right recipe for what the Packers need. Jay Cutler will make one too many mistakes and the Packers will get a big win to keep the pressure on Minnesota in the NFC North. PICK: Packers
NEW ORLEANS (+3) at HOUSTON
I know that Drew Brees is not good on the road, but Houston lacks the firepower to blow out any team, so I see the Saints keeping this one close. I think this game is decided by less than three points either way, so I am definitely taking the points (and the much better quarterback). PICK: Saints
CINCINNATI (-8) vs. ST. LOUIS
Straight out of the K.I.S.S. playbook – solid starting quarterback for the Bengals, and who knows what we have for the Rams. Give me the team that is atop the standings to win by double digits against a one-dimensional Rams team that had a good but not great defense. PICK: Bengals
MINNESOTA (+2.5) at ATLANTA
The Vikings suffered a tough loss last week, as did Atlanta, but the Vikings are a better team and the Falcons lost personnel on top of losing the scoreboard in Week 11. With Devonta Freeman still in the early stages of concussion protocol, odds are against him playing in this one. Taking Minnesota, the better team with a stud running back against the Falcons minus Freeman feels like an easy call as a result. Vikings for the win here. PICK: Vikings
WASHINGTON (+3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
I personally loved that this game moved up to three points, as expected with a lot of the public behind the Giants. Washington has a bad secondary, but guess what – so does New York. I see this one as a shootout (hint – take the OVER) and Kirk Cousins will pace along with Eli Manning. The game will be a 34-31 type result, which means I will take Washington as they think that a win here keeps their slim playoff hopes alive. PICK: Washington
TAMPA BAY (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS
Did Las Vegas just skip over last week? Didn’t Tampa Bay throw five touchdowns last week while Matt Hasselbeck struggled to close out a Freeman-less Falcons team? Now the Bucs are getting a field goal head start with Tampa Bay still allegedly in the playoff hunt? Give me the Bucs here and the points, and I will call for the upset as well. PICK: Buccaneers
KANSAS CITY (-4) vs. BUFFALO
Kansas City has playoff hopes and just came off of a big win, even with having to use their third string tailback. Buffalo may not have Tyrod Taylor this week and just came off of an ugly Monday night contest with New England. If Taylor is out this looks like an easy win for the Chiefs, and that’s the way I am leaning here on Wednesday. PICK: Chiefs
JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs. SAN DIEGO
This line keeps inching up, so get on it fast if you can. San Diego’s luck (and skill players) have run out, as shown by their 33-3 loss to Kansas City last week. I like how the Jaguars are trending, and they can smell the playoffs in Jacksonville. I would be OK laying four or five points, but get as few as you can. PICK: Jaguars
OAKLAND (-1.5) at TENNESSEE
Oakland had a poor showing last week, but young and developing teams will do that from time to time. I see the Raiders bouncing back and getting a road win in Tennessee against the Titans who offer little resistance right now, although I see a big week for Delanie Walker. PICK: Raiders
NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) vs. MIAMI)
Oh, how I hate the dreaded “-3.5” line, but I am going with it as I think the Jets are going to go with their strength against the weakness of Miami and run the ball all game long with Chris Ivory. Miami is stuck at the bottom of the AFC East at 4-6 after their poor showing against Dallas last week, and now the Jets are trying to kick Miami when they are down and on the road to visit New York. Darrelle Revis is still dealing with a concussion, but Jarvis Landry now has a knee issue. I cancel these two out and predict a Jets win behind a big game out of Ivory. PICK: Jets
ARIZONA (-10) at SAN FRANCISCO
One of the best teams visits one of the worst here as the Cardinals head to the 49ers in Week 12. The weakness of San Francisco is their pass defense, which is the strength of Arizona. Honestly this game should be over by halftime, and I expect the Cardinals to coast to something like a 34-10 victory – and the 10 might be generous. PICK: Cardinals
PITTSBURGH (+4) at SEATTLE
This might be a surprising pick to some, but the Seattle defense has not been as formidable this year, especially against top notch quarterbacks. That is what they will get here from the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, who could go off for 300 yards and a few scores. Can Russell Wilson keep pace? I think he might, but that will be the challenge. Either way, I like this game to have a lot of points and scoring from both sides (again, OVER) and I will take the road team and the points. PICK: Steelers
DENVER (+3) vs. NEW ENGLAND
I am not sure when the Broncos were last a home underdog, but the reasoning here is pretty obvious. Tom Brady and the Patriots are 10-0 and the Broncos have moved from Peyton Manning to Brock Osweiler. Well, I think Denver looks better with Osweiler, and he got the first start jitters over with last week. New England keeps getting more and more injuries and looking less and less dominant, so I am taking Denver for not just the points but the first loss for New England this year, thanks in part to a great defense. Denver 23, New England 20. PICK: Broncos
(Monday) CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs. BALTIMORE
This is half of a pick for the Browns and half against the Ravens here in what should be an ugly Monday night contest. Baltimore has lost their starting quarterback, running back and top wide receiver this season, which means they will start the trio of Matt Schaub, Buck Allen and Kamar Aiken as their “little three” this week. Yikes. I expect Cleveland to rally around Josh McCown as the new/old/new quarterback for the Browns as they move on from Johnny Manziel. PICK: Browns
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- THURSDAY SPECIAL TEASER: (3-TEAM, 6-POINTS, 9-5 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+1.5) at DALLAS
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO (OVER 41)
- TAMPA BAY (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS
- DENVER (+3) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- NEW ORLEANS “FOR THE WIN” (+140) at HOUSTON
- WASHINGTON “FOR THE WIN” (+130) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- TAMPA BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+160) at INDIANAPOLIS
- PITTSBURGH “FOR THE WIN” (+175) at SEATTLE
- DENVER “FOR THE WIN” (+145) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+7.5) at DALLAS
- ARIZONA (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- CINCINNATI (-2) vs. ST. LOUIS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+7.5) at DALLAS
- ARIZONA (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- CINCINNATI (-2) vs. ST. LOUIS
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+7.5) at DALLAS
- ARIZONA (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- CINCINNATI (-2) vs. ST. LOUIS
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. BUFFALO
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+7.5) at DALLAS
- ARIZONA (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- CINCINNATI (-2) vs. ST. LOUIS
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. BUFFALO
- PITTSBURGH (+10) at SEATTLE
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+7.5) at DALLAS
- ARIZONA (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- CINCINNATI (-2) vs. ST. LOUIS
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (+2) vs. BUFFALO
- PITTSBURGH (+10) at SEATTLE
- WASHINGTON (+9) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- PITTSBURGH (+4) at SEATTLE
- WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 46.5)
- JACKSONVILLE vs. SAN DIEGO (OVER 46.5)
- PITTSBURGH at SEATTLE (OVER 44.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (+1.5) at DALLAS
- MINNESOTA (+2.5) at ATLANTA
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Panthers, Bengals, Vikings, Chiefs, Jets, Cardinals, Steelers
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-6-1 (53.8%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 3-9 (25%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-1-1 (66.7%)
Season
- OVERALL: 82-75-3 (52.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 84.45-113-1 (42.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 34-36-2 (48.6%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
