Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Finally. FINALLY! A week I can be not just proud of, but one where I just completely crushed it. Overall I missed three games (and two ties) but that 10-3-2 was my worst showing of the week, and it was still 77% right. My “Picks of the Week” were 8-2-1, a strong 80%, but the cream of the crop was clearly the “Best Bets”, which swept on every teaser on the board, all the way to a 9-team teaser that went off at 18.25-1 odds. On the strength of those teasers (which went an outstanding 56-0) I had the best week of the year by far, going 69.75-6-1, or 92.1% correct for the week. Not too shabby. That’s why I trust the process, as now that big win has erased a lot of errors and bad picks for the first six weeks of the season.
So what have I learned? Each week is a brand new slate, and that some weeks will be awesome and some will not be so hot. But most of all, I learned that trying to just find the winners of each game and using K.I.S.S. has a ton of value, so expect that a lot for the rest of the season. As for the coming week, there are still some ugly games and this is the first of two 6-team bye weeks, but we shall press on. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Teams on a Bye Week – Arizona, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants, Tennessee
Teams coming off of a Bye Week – Detroit, Houston
(Thursday) MIAMI (+3.5) at BALTIMORE
Ugh. I mentioned a while back that October was where the NFL hid a bunch of bad games, and I wasn’t kidding. This game could be a 12-9 type contest where the star of the night might be Justin Tucker converting four field goals. Miami will be without Jay Cutler (which some may argue is a benefit) but Jay Ajayi is also not 100%. Both defenses are pretty good while neither offense is, and Matt Moore vs. Joe Flacco is not going to light up any scoreboards. I will take the road team here, reluctantly, because I like Ajayi (whom I expect to play) and the Miami receivers far more than the Ravens offense – plus I get 3.5 points. All in all, however, I hate this game and will not touch it except where I have to make a choice. PICK: Dolphins
MINNESOTA (-9) “at” CLEVELAND (in London, England)
I was wrong last week in thinking that the trips across the pond were done – we have one more to go here with the Vikings taking on the Browns in Twickenham Stadium in London, England. This is the same stadium that hosted Arizona-Rams last week, and the turf holds up very well. I do not like the Browns in the U.S., so I surely will not be picking them out of country. The Vikings can move the ball on offense and will look to get one more victory before their bye week. Even with backups at quarterback and receiver, Minnesota should be able to take care of Cleveland and their musical quarterback situation. Nine points is a big number, but I do not expect the Browns to get 14 points, so if the Vikings can get 23 or more than this is a win – and I think 23-14 is the upper limit for Cleveland’s score. Another game I would rather avoid overall, but if forced to make a choice I am taking the better team to win and cover. PICK: Vikings
BUFFALO (-3) vs. OAKLAND
The Raiders are riding high after their epic comeback on Thursday Night Football, winning on the final play of the game against their Kansas City rivals in Oakland. Now after an extended rest the Raiders head to Buffalo for an early start against a Bills team that also had a comeback last week of their own, rallying over Tampa Bay. This should be a good, close matchup and it honestly could break either way. With the time difference and the home team advantage, I am taking the Bills by the field goal and hoping that is how it plays out – but this should be a very entertaining game to watch. PICK: Bills
INDIANAPOLIS (+10) at CINCINNATI
This was one of the last games that I wrote up this week, which goes to show how much I like it. I think the Bengals have a better overall matchup on offense, for both passing and rushing, but they were just shown up at home by the Steelers. The Colts will not be confused for the Steelers at any point this season, but I do not expect them to rack up big points and production in this one. Choosing a team that has just two wins to win by double digits is not an easy call at all, but that’s where I fall on this tricky matchup. PICK: Bengals
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+7.5) at NEW ENGLAND
New England just locked down Atlanta, but the Chargers are starting to put up some numbers on offense and they are riding a three game winning streak. There is the narrative of the Chargers playing at 10AM West Coast time, but I think Rivers is primed to take advantage of the weak Patriots pass defense. I said last week that the Chargers would take advantage of Denver with short passes to TE Hunter Henry and RB Melvin Gordon, and I think it happens again this week and Keenen Allen will also be productive here. The “hook” on that seven points turned the tide as I think Los Angeles (still weird to write) keeps the Chargers covering the number. Can they win? Yes, but I think this is a cover the number spot (and I know I’m going against my K.I.S.S. rule here). PICK: Chargers
NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) vs. CHICAGO
First of all, I think the total in this game (48 points) is WAY too high, as both of these defenses are very underrated. Counting on defensive touchdowns is a bit much here, but I will say that both teams will likely struggle to move the ball on offense against the opposing defensive units. That means this game will be lower scoring, but I still favor the Saints at home against the Bears, and will reluctantly take them to win by double digits. I do think New Orleans wins, but that big number does scare me a little in what could be a 20-13 type contest. I can see 24-10 here for the Saints and Drew Brees plays better at home, so that is where I am going this week. PICK: Saints
NEW YORK JETS (+5) vs. ATLANTA
How can anyone have confidence in the Falcons right now? They have been pathetic on offense for practically a month now (loss to Buffalo on October 1st – 23-17; loss to Miami on October 15th – 20-17, and last week’s loss to New England, 23-7). The Jets may have lost two in a row, but at least they have been putting up some offense (28-31 loss last week to Miami) – and their top two players in Bilal Powell and Matt Forte are finally both healthy. The Falcons give up 4.3 yards per carry, and that is not good news against the Jets. Home teams have struggled overall this year, but I think the Jets can do enough to keep this game close and possibly pull the upset at home. PICK: Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
I did a lot of thinking about this game with the Eagles, and I was looking for reasons to not take Philadelphia in this spot. The Eagles could be in a “trap week” position here with short rest after a Monday Night Football win over a divisional rival (Washington), but they are at home and do not have a big game looming in Week 9 (they host Denver before the Eagles go on their bye). With San Francisco with the worst record in the NFL and the Eagles with the best, this shapes up to be a blowout for Philadelphia. Throw in that the 49ers are on the road AGAIN with their fourth road trip in five weeks, and are heading to the East Coast for the third time in four weeks for a 10AM Pacific kickoff and I do not see them holding up against a formidable Eagles’ defensive front. Even with Philadelphia losing Jason Peters on their offensive line, they should be able to score plenty of points and cruise to another win at home. PICK: Eagles
CAROLINA (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY
Divisional rivals line up in Florida this week as the Panthers travel to Tampa Bay after a bad loss in Chicago. Carolina has forgotten how to move the ball once again, but the Buccaneers are also finding ways to lose games after blowing a 27-20 lead with less than four minutes in Buffalo last week. So which of these two teams heading in the wrong direction (again) will get it going? Diving further in, Carolina should be able to move the ball way easier than Tampa Bay as the Panthers are only giving up 180.7 yards per game through the air and just 81.1 on the ground. That will make it very challenging for Jameis Winston and Doug Martin. I like Cam Newton to regroup and move the ball with his arm and feet in Tampa Bay, eeking out a tough win on the road to get to 5-3 and remain in first place in the NFC South. PICK: Panthers
SEATTLE (-5.5) vs. HOUSTON
The Texans are coming off of a bye week, but that does not guarantee that they will be any more ready to head to Seattle and face the Seahawks than if they had just one week to prepare. Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are red hot, and the Seahawks just got a much needed victory at the Giants last week. Now with some home cooking, I tend to like Seattle to show Deshaun Watson some surprising (and confusing) defensive coverages that will result in a few mistakes by the rookie quarterback, which should be enough of a difference maker for Seattle to win by more than a touchdown. PICK: Seahawks
DALLAS (-2) at WASHINGTON
One of the biggest rivalries renews this week as Dallas heads to Washington to take on Kirk Cousins at home. Washington is coming off of a tough loss in Philadelphia on Monday, while Dallas has to travel all the way back from San Francisco (then Dallas) then to D.C. That travel schedule is much easier after a 40-10 victory last Sunday, and Ezekiel Elliott will look to build on his three touchdown success against their divisional foe. Both teams desperately need to win this game as they are both at 3-3, 2.5 games behind the Eagles for the divisional lead and the loser will likely be barely alive for a playoff berth. I like the Cowboys here with Washington still without Josh Norman, and the Redskins did not look like they could stop anyone on defense against Philadelphia on Monday. Dallas should win this one by at least a touchdown, something like 27-20. PICK: Cowboys
PITTSBURGH (-3) at DETROIT
I have a good feeling that this is the spot where the “Ben Roethlisberger on the road” narrative starts to fall off. The Lions are coming off of a bye week, but that time off will not help them against pass receiving running backs. So far in six contests, Detroit is 41-340-1 against receiving backs, which flies in the face of their solid rushing defense of 94 yards a game. I really like LeVeon Bell to have a strong performance and someone like Jesse James or Vance MacDonald to step up and deliver a touchdown for Pittsburgh. The Steelers should extend their win streak here on the road with a 24-20 type score. PICK: Steelers
(Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
The Chiefs are in a prime spot to take control of the AFC West with a home win over Denver. After a heartbreaking loss to Oakland last Thursday, Kansas City is just too good (and Denver is too bad) for them not to take this one over Denver at home. Trevor Siemian is nearing a benching, and the Broncos cannot get the job done of late with a bad loss at home to the Giants two weeks ago (also in prime time) and a road shutout at the Chargers. All signs point towards an easy win for the Chiefs by double digits to close out Week 8. PICK: Chiefs
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND (OVER 48.5)
- SEATTLE (-5.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS (-2) at WASHINGTON
- NEW YORK JETS (“FOR THE WIN” +195) vs. ATLANTA
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (“FOR THE WIN” +300) at NEW ENGLAND (Good odds)
- 6-POINT TEASER: PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 41)
- 6-POINT TEASER: WASHINGTON (+8.5) vs. DALLAS (OVER 44.5)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
- PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OVER 42.5)
- SEATTLE (+0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.10-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
- PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OVER 42.5)
- SEATTLE (+0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS (+4) at WASHINGTON
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
- PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OVER 42.5)
- SEATTLE (+0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS (+4) at WASHINGTON
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (8.9-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
- PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OVER 42.5)
- SEATTLE (+0.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS (+4) at WASHINGTON
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. CHICAGO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- NEW ORLEANS vs. CHICAGO (UNDER 48)
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OVER 42.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: DALLAS (+4) at WASHINGTON (OVER 44.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. CHICAGO (UNDER 54)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.65-1 ODDS):
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. DENVER
- PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OVER 42.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. DENVER (UNDER 50)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Chicago / New Orleans (Under 48), Seattle, Kansas City, New England / Chargers (Over 48.5), Dallas
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 10-3-2 (76.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 69.75-6-1 (92.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 8-2-1 (80%)
Season
- OVERALL: 52-51-3 (50.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 113.85-105-3 (52.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 31-23-2 (57.4%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com