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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
This is getting old. Whenever you hit a bad spell, all you can do is shake it off and press on to get back on the winning side. Digging deep for Week 8, let’s buckle down and get some winning picks. Here we go:
Bye week teams: Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Teams returning from a bye: Carolina, Dallas
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at TENNESSEE
This is what we know about early week games – they are usually low scoring and ugly. So, with that in mind, I am taking the road team getting more than a field goal in what should be a low scoring contest. I’d rather avoid the whole game entirely and I can see a path for the Titans to win, but I don’t see Tennessee blowing out Jacksonville with their ability to keep games close. Tennessee’s path to a victory would involve running the ball quite a bit with DeMarco Murray, but Jacksonville is above average against the run and also tight ends, so this should be a relatively close game. Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson need to step up, and I think that they do and keep this close enough for a possible Jaguars win – but I will gladly take more than a field goal for the head start. PICK: Jaguars
CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. WASHINGTON (London, England)
Week 8 gives us our third and final London contest this season, and I for one am happy about that. Not because I want to sleep on Sundays (I actually do a lot of DFS work at that time), but the games are just not that good across the pond and it is another bad game just waiting to happen. This week we have Washington “at” Cincinnati, and the line is waivering right around a field goal. The Bengals have been an up and down team all season long, but they just got a big win over the Browns and a win here puts them at 4-4 heading into their bye week. Washington is a lttle on the other side of the coin, as a loss pulls them back to 4-4 and last place in the NFC East where all teams have winning records. Both teams have had issues running the ball this year, but they both are also in the bottom quarter of the league in yards against per rush – so something should give here. I like the Bengals to take advantage as they have not one but two rushers to ride against a bad Washington run defense, and that is the matchup I expect to be exploited. Washington has a backfield in turmoil with Matt Jones fumbling far too often, and their advantage through the air at tight end is minimized with Vernon Davis filling in for Jordan Reed. Washington will have to try and pass for the win here, but I like the Bengals to build on last week’s victory and move both teams to 4-4. PICK: Bengals
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at BUFFALO
The Bills shut out the Patriots 16-0 in Week 4 in Foxboro, but that was with New England without Tom Brady and the Bills will a healthy LeSean McCoy. This is a revenge game for the Patriots, who would love nothing more than to march into Buffalo and return the favor against the Bills and stake their claim once again atop the AFC East. While I am not calling for a shutout, it is definitely on the minds of the New England defense. Patriots 24, Bills 6. PICK: Patriots
NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
it is a good thing that the NBA season just started, because otherwise the Browns might have called LeBron James to start at quarterback this week. Then again, I do not think any Cleveland fan wants LeBron to be injured, os it is probably for the best that he stays far away from the Browns and that Bermuda triangle in the Cleveland backfield. The Jets just ran all day long against the Ravens, and the only reason that the Browns are not the worst defense against the run is the existence of the 49ers. Matt Forte is primed for another big game and the Browns fans will be checking basketball and World Series scores this weekend. PICK: Jets
KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
Spencer Ware gets yet another bad run defense to run through this week as Kansas City visits Indianapolis. Andrew Luck will do his best to survive behind that bad offensive line, and he may get Donte Moncrief back, but it is a sad state of affairs when that is the best you can hope for to improve your offense. The defense for the Colts is the problem. Meanwhile the Chiefs continue to improve on offense, racking up two wins with over 25 points in each win since their bye (26-10 at Oakland, 27-21 over New Orleans last week). As for Indianapolis, well, they lost on the road to Tennessee last week after blowing a lead at Houston. Two team in opposite directions, and the momentum looks like both trends will continue. PICK: Chiefs
NEW ORLEANS (+3) vs. SEATTLE
Jimmy Graham had this revenge game circled on his calendar all year as the Seahawks make the trip to New Orleans this week. Drew Brees is also rather fond of the Big Easy, but Seattle will look to make it a “little hard” (see what I did there?) to get the Saints passing game going come Sunday. Seattle had some strong defensive stands last week despite their lack of offense in the strange 6-6 tie with Arizona last week. Seattle will need plenty of points in what could be a high scoring affair (the Over/Under is 50), but the weak New Orleans defense could provide just what the doctor and Russell Wilson ordered this week. Even with the bad defense, I have to take the home team with a healthy Drew Brees and a field goal head start against a team that only scored six points in 75 minutes last week, right? That’s my story, and I am sticking to it. PICK: Saints
TAMPA BAY (-1) vs. OAKLAND
The Oakland Raiders stayed in Florida this week after their big 33-16 win over the Jaguars on Sunday, setting up base camp in Bradenton, Florida. Smart move for the team to avoid the long flights across the country and back, and I think this will work to their advantage – but that doesn’t necessarily mean I am just taking the Raiders here. Tampa Bay just had a big “get right” game in San Francisco, and the offense is going to be riding that high this week in another good matchup against a bad Raiders defense. I see a full shootout here and either team can win, but I am taking the home team after their highest point total of the season against a defense that is worse than their own. Tampa Bay by a touchdown, 31-24. PICK: Buccaneers
CAROLINA (-2.5) vs. ARIZONA
The Cardinals drew the short straw this week as FOX moved the game from a 4:25PM to a 1PM kickoff, since the rematch of the NFC Championship game is not quite the marquee matchup it was once the schedules were announced (Now Atlanta-Green Bay is at 4:25PM). This works against Arizona, who is already on a shorter week after the bizarre 6-6 tie with Seattle on Sunday Night Football. Fifteen extra minutes of football – even bad, weird football – does add up. Now the team must fly to the East Coast for an early kickoff against a team that is coming off of a bye week. Did I mention the Cardinals struggled on offense? David Johnson will still get his, but Carolina needs this game desperately and they have every opportunity to get this win with more rest and a groggy Arizona team coming to Charlotte. Give me Carolina for the win in this one. PICK: Panthers
DETROIT (+2.5) at HOUSTONI
This pick is all about the health of Lamar Miller, or the lack of it. Well, mostly – did you see Brock Osweiler last week? I do not care if the Lions are the worst team against tight ends if Osweiler is the guy trying to make those throws. Detroit should be able to get going on offense with Matthew Stafford, and if Detroit can get 20 points I can see the Lions possibly even stealing a win here because if the Texans have to rely on C.J. Fiedorowicz and Blue, they are in deep trouble. Detroit also gets the extra day of rest with the Texans flying back from Denver after their poor showing against the Broncos. I will take the better offense and quarterback plus the points. PICK: Lions
DENVER (-5) vs. SAN DIEGO
Here is another strange scheduling quirk, as Denver hosts the Chargers after these two squared off two weeks ago on a Thursday in San Diego. Now the Chargers will visit Denver with the Broncos coming off of a big home win on Monday Night Football, while the Chargers are also on a winning streak after an overtime victory at Atlanta last Sunday. Philip Rivers will be under constant pressure from a stifling Denver defense, while both Devontae Booker and C.J. Anderson will look to run rampant against an average run defense from San Diego. The Chargers will look to stuff the run and make Trevor Siemian beat them, something he could not do two weeks ago. Tough call here, but I like the home team to get the win, but the Chargers may keep it close. The key will be turnovers, as Denver is +5 on the differential for the season while San Diego is -3 with a league-worst 11 fumbles. I am going with the home team, the better defense and the kicker with the bigger leg. PICK: Broncos
GREEN BAY (+3) at ATLANTA
Well, no surprise here as to why FOX wanted this game for their national late afternoon broadcast. These offenses have star power and fire power, as shown by the Over/Under of 53 points in most places for what could be a 34-31 type shootout. Aaron Rodgers picked the Bears apart last Thursday night with barely any ground game, throwing 30 times before the half. Atlanta will be putting up much more of a challenge this week, however, as the Falcons just lost a tough one to San Diego in overtime last week. The Falcons lead the NFL with 229 points scored (over 32 a game), but they also are fourth worst with 199 against. Green Bay is going to have to score early and often here against the Falcons, which has been tough for an offense stuck in neutral most of the season. I think that they have found some offense in Ty Montgomery, and now they could get Knile Davis in the mix after their bye week. I like a team in a dome getting points after a bye with 30+ point capability against a team that is averaging over 28 points a game against them. Shootout city, here we come. Packers 34, Falcons 31. PICK: Packers
PHILADELPHIA (+5) at DALLAS
Sunday wraps up with a huge NFC East clash on Sunday Night Football as the Eagles visit the Cowboys. Dallas is coming off of a bye, but I am sure they took some time to watch Philadelphia beat the (then) undefeated Minnesota Vikings thanks to strong special teams and defense. That is the recipe the Eagles are going to stick with this year, as it has brought them success so far. Run the ball, protect possession and play strong defense and special teams. I fully expect a great game here as both defenses will look to rattle the opposing rookie quarterback, but it will come down to which offense and special teams units execute best. This will be a close game either way – so take the points. PICK: Eagles
(Monday) MINNESOTA (-5.5) at CHICAGO
Isn’t it remarkable how Jay Cutler’s thumb is suddenly better now that Brian Hoyer is out for the year with a broken arm? Miraculous – or maybe the Bears have no other viable option (sorry Matt Barkley, not you). Either way, the Vikings are going to come in angry after their first loss and get after Cutler, which is not a good recipe for Chicago success. Minnesota will protect the ball, play strong defense and good things will happen against weaker foes like Chicago. Vikings by double digits, 23-10. PICK: Vikings
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+160) at TENNESSEE
- DETROIT “FOR THE WIN” (+125) at HOUSTONI
- SAN DIEGO “FOR THE WIN” (+200) at DENVER (odds too good to pass up given SD won two weeks ago)
- PHILADELPHIA “FOR THE WIN” (+195) at DALLAS
- (Thursday) JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at TENNESSEE
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 6-POINT TEASER: GREEN BAY (+9) at ATLANTA (OVER 46.5)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (+0.5) at CHICAGO
- TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND (OVER 43)
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (+0.5) at CHICAGO
- TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND (OVER 43)
- NEW YORK JETS (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (+0.5) at CHICAGO
- TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND (OVER 43)
- NEW YORK JETS (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (+3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (+0.5) at CHICAGO
- TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND (OVER 43)
- NEW YORK JETS (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (+3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 46.5)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (+0.5) at CHICAGO
- TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND (OVER 43)
- NEW YORK JETS (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (+3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 46.5)
- GREEN BAY (+9) at ATLANTA
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at BUFFALO
- NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
- TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND (OVER 49)
- CAROLINA (-2.5) vs. ARIZONA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (+0.5) at CHICAGO
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Jacksonville, New England, New York Jets, Kansas City, Oakland/Tampa Bay (OVER 49), Carolina, Minnesota
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-9 (40%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 14.3-15 (48.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-4 (50%)
Season
- OVERALL: 51-55-1 (48.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 52.1-93 (35.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 26-24 (52%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.