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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
I feel a bit like Kim Kardashian this morning (and let me tell you, I never thought I’d say THAT) because I too was robbed. So were the Cleveland Browns, in case you missed it (and I don’t blame you if you did, it was Browns vs. Washington, after all). Cleveland had the ball in their hands yet somehow the refs decided Washington had possession. Cleveland lost the momentum and the game, and I lost my “For the Win” prop. Okay, that didn’t make or break my weekend – Atlanta’s upset in my “Stone Cold Lock” crushed me, as did Arizona losing Carson Palmer, and let’s not forget New England forgetting that they still had one more game before Tom Brady comes back. That made it the second week in a row that I would like to forget – so let’s try and do that and move forwards. On to Week 5:
Bye week teams: Kansas City, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Seattle
Teams returning from a bye: Green Bay, Philadelphia
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) ARIZONA (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
Everyone is going to be afraid to take Arizona this week. They just lost at home to the Rams, Carson Palmer is probably out, it is a road trip to a divisional foe on a short week – why take the Cardinals? In two words, David Johnson. San Francisco will not be able to stop him, and if they stack the box then John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald will take short tosses over the box from Drew Stanton and do what they do best – run after the catch. The Arizona defense knows that they cannot afford another loss in the division, and the 49ers are the best path for a win to fix their season. A loss here puts them too far out of contention (almost) with two divisional losses and a 1-4 start. This is as close to a must win in the first week of October as you will find, and I believe the Arizona David Johnsons will prevail. PICK: Cardinals
NEW ENGLAND (-10) at CLEVELAND
Tom Brady has been chomping at the bit to get back and play for four weeks, and now he gets to visit the Browns. Do I need to say much more? Cleveland was competitive last week, but that was Washington. I don’t think LeGarrette Blount is an afterthought here at all with how easily teams have run against the Browns, but I can definitely see New England posting 40+ points this week in a statement game that screams “The Patriots are 4-1 and Brady is Back.” That’s bad news for 31 other teams, including the Browns. PICK: Patriots
PHILADELPHIA (-3) at DETROIT
I love this game here for the Eagles. Coming off of a bye week, Andy Reid was one of the best, if not the best head coach in getting his team ready with an extra week. Doug Pederson learned all about this under Reid, both as a player and a coach. So let’s start with Philadelphia is going to be ready for this game. Now, the game is also indoors, so no weather factors. Let’s now throw in that Detroit has lost at home to Tennessee and just lost twice in a row on the road against Green Bay (as expected) and Chicago (not so much). Last but not least, the Lions only scored 15 against the Titans and 14 last week against a porous Bear defense. Philadelphia’s been led by a strong defense plus a solid ground game and rookie quarterback – and no turnovers. Yep, still all over the Eagles here. Philadelphia by double digits as they move to 4-0. PICK: Eagles
CHICAGO (+5) at INDIANAPOLIS
Remember when you first heard about an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object? (I hope it wasn’t first in The Dark Knight.) That is not quite the case here, as we have the exact opposite with two very movable defenses meeting some offenses that might be finally getting on track. The Colts are flying back home from London this week (and apparently chose to not take a bye week after the London game, a curious decision) after losing to Jacksonville in their home away from home. The good news for Indianapolis was that they put up 27 points and may be starting to get Andrew Luck and company going again. Chicago takes a short trip away from home after a close victory over Detroit, not exactly a monumental win but a victory nonetheless, and one in which the new starting trio of Brian Hoyer, Eddie Royal and Jordan Howard may have established themselves as the cornerstones of the offense going forwards (with TE Zach Miller certainly a capable fourth wheel). So who wins here? As much as I want to say the Colts are better, neither team has a good defense that has succumbed to injuries and ineptitude, so give me the team getting points coming off of a win in what could be a high scoring, close game. PICK: Bears
MIAMI (-3.5) vs. TENNESSEE
On the surface, this looks like a boring game that few will want to witness in any way, but upon further review, I confirm it. Neither team seems to score or move the ball with regularity, aside from DeMarco Murray for the Titans. Miami has been reasonably solid against the run this season, so that is probably their main focus as Marcus Mariota has not shown much at all yet, and he has no go-to receiver. This one screams “Ugly” to me, yet, I feel like I should take the home team and give the points. Do I love this call or game? Not at all, and I will focus my attention elsewhere this week as soon as I make this pick. PICK: Dolphins
BALTIMORE (-3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
First off, Hurricane Matthew looks like it will not impact any NFL games this weekend, which is good (and I hope it doesn’t disrupt many Footballguys’ lives, either). This game is the only one that might be impacted, and they are calling for some rain although not from Matthew. I expect Baltimore to move the ball almost at will on Washington, a team that cannot stop the run and has also struggled overall on defense. Baltimore has kept every opposing team in each contest and they just suffered a tough home loss at the hands of Oakland. I think the Ravens run it with Terrance West and some Kenneth Dixon (for his first NFL game), which sets up play action for Joe Flacco to test the Washington secondary. The Ravens are first in the league in yards against, but the level of competition has been mediocre at best. Washington is the worst against the run (133 yards per game, eight rushing touchdowns) and not too much better against the pass. I expect Baltimore to run the ball, especially if the weather is not great, and control this game from start to finish. Baltimore 23, Washington 13. PICK: Ravens
MINNESOTA (-6) vs. HOUSTON
I don’t know how anyone can pick against the Minnesota defense right now. Will Fuller has shown that he can get open against almost anyone, but if the Vikings can hold Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr to almost nothing, Houston is just as likely to struggle. The Vikings can beat teams in a number of ways, just not in a shootout (at least, it appears that way). This should be a very low scoring affair and I will take the better defense, even on one less day of rest. PICK: Vikings
PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. NEW YORK JETS
The Steelers just scored 43 points on the Chiefs, showing that the Pittsburgh offense is for real, especially with LeVeon Bell back, and that Pittsburgh is a tough place for a road team to visit. Enter the New York Jets into the picture, with Eric Decker out and Matt Forte rumored to be injured (no confirmation, he was just carted to the locker room at the end of Sunday’s game, which is odd). Have I mentioned Ryan Fitzpatrick yet? He has gone from “Fitz-magic” to “Fitz-tragic” with nine interceptions in two weeks. This one does not shape up well for the Jets. Steelers win by double digits. PICK: Steelers
DENVER (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
Atlanta continues to have Carolina’s number for some reason, but this week is a completely different story. The Falcons head out west for a late game at altitude in Denver against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Denver has kept teams below 21 points in all four of their contests so far, and they will look to make it five on Sunday. Trevor Siemian is questionable right now, but I expect a big dose of C.J. Anderson and some Devontae Booker as well against a bad Atlanta run defense. As for the Denver passing game, Paxton Lynch looked quite good in relief, and with two strong targets like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, I see no reason that the Broncos cannot move the ball at will on the Falcons. Combine that with a strong defense and the home team should win pretty easily in this one. PICK: Broncos
CINCINNATI (EVEN) at DALLAS
The Bengals get extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but I know that they are not satisfied from last week’s game in that they could not establish the run. Dallas is susceptible to the run this year, giving up 4.5 yards per carry and even worse to running backs (330 yards on just 68 carries, a 4.9 average, plus two scores). Look for the Bengals to establish Jeremy Hill early and throw in some touches to Giovani Bernard to get them back on a successful path. The one area where Cincinnati can be beat this season is at wide receiver, as they have given up 10 touchdowns (tied for third worst with Cleveland, behind Atlanta and Detroit – not good company). The problem is if Dez Bryant is out, Dallas cannot really take advantage of any mismatches. One last special teams factor – Dan Bailey has a bad back, while Mike Nugent just kicked about a hundred field goals last week. I like the Bengals to pick up a “W” in Big D come Sunday. PICK: Bengals
BUFFALO (+3) vs. LOS ANGELES
This game screams “toss-up” to me. The Rams just beat the Arizona Cardinals on the road, and the Bills just shut out New England at New England. Both games are divisional rivalries for both franchises, so I see a big letdown for both teams this week. The Rams are the better defense despite the Bills posting the goose egg on the Patriots on the road. Honestly neither team impresses me on offense, so I am taking the team with the most productive player a year long (LeSean McCoy) and the points in a game I normally would not touch. PICK: Bills
SAN DIEGO (+4) at OAKLAND
In a strange symmetry, the Chargers just lost to the Saints at home 35-34, while the Raiders won in New Orleans in Week 1 by that same exact score. The takeaway here is that both teams can score, and both teams give up a lot of points. The Raiders have yielded 28 or more points in three of four games (fourth is Tennessee, throw that out) while the Chargers have given up 26 or more three times (with the other just 14 at home to the Jaguars). Putting all of that together, I see a 37-34 type score reminiscent of the old days of the wild AFC (and AFL) games between these two franchises. That tells me to take the points and enjoy the fireworks. PICK: Chargers
GREEN BAY (-7) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
What a difference two weeks can make. Exactly 14 days ago, everyone was screaming “What is wrong with Aaron Rodgers”? Well, does anyone else remember R-E-L-A-X? In Week 3 (in a game I actually nailed, for a change this season), Green Bay had a virtual homecoming game against Detroit and blew them out 31-0 in the first half on the way to an easy 34-27 victory. Week 4 game Green Bay an early bye week, and on Sunday Night Football the Packers get to host the Giants – a team that was shut down and nearly out by the Vikings 24-10 on Monday. Eli Manning may get some offense (like Matthew Stafford did), but I see the Pack rolling again against a Giants team that gave up 24 to Minnesota and 29 to Washington in two consecutive losses in the past two weeks. Green Bay gets the job done again in front of a national audience, 37-24. PICK: Packers
(Monday) CAROLINA (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
The only reason that this game is not a higher spread is the uncertainty for Cam Newton. Well, I think Newton plays, but as we saw last week, Derek Anderson can move an offense. Tampa Bay has not been able to stop anyone this year, and the Panthers have looked strong (except against Atlanta, for some reason). Look for the Panthers to chase Jameis Winston down all day and Carolina to get plenty of points on Tampa Bay to close out Week 5. PICK: Panthers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- PHILADELPHIA (-3) at DETROIT
- CHICAGO at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 47.5)
- PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- DENVER (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-7) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) CAROLINA (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- DENVER (+0.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- CHICAGO at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 41.5)
- (Monday) CAROLINA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- PHILADELPHIA (+3) at DETROIT
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- DENVER (+0.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- CHICAGO at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 41.5)
- (Monday) CAROLINA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- PHILADELPHIA (+3) at DETROIT
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- DENVER (+0.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- CHICAGO at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 41.5)
- (Monday) CAROLINA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- PHILADELPHIA (+3) at DETROIT
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- DENVER (+0.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia, Chicago / Indianapolis (OVER 47.5), Pittsburgh, Denver, Green Bay, Carolina
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-8 (46.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 11-19 (36.7%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Season
- OVERALL: 31-32 (49.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 29.8-55 (35.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 15-12 (55.6%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.