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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Let’s just say it has not been a good start to the season. I would rather forget Week 3, and frankly Weeks 1 and 2 were not that great either, but Week 3 felt very different. The first two weeks of the young season, favorites won and covered nine times, or more than half of the contests. In Week 3, nearly half of the teams (7 of 16) that won were underdogs, and only five favorites won and covered. That is going to leave a lot of people scratching their heads after a tough week, but historically speaking it is usually best to look for straight up winners and not factor in the point spread. In only 10 of 35 games (28.6%) this year has the point spread mattered (an underdog covering the number but not winning), and that percentage is higher than usual. So, I am sticking with the long term strategy of taking winners and not looking for many – or any – underdogs to just cover the number this week.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) GREEN BAY (-7) vs. CHICAGO
The longest NFL rivalry gets going again on Thursday, just four days after both teams won in far different scenarios on Sunday. Chicago beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Chicago in overtime, while the Packers narrowly escaped a scare at home against Cincinnati, needing overtime to win by just three points. All of that may have some looking at the Bears as a team that can pull the upset, especially with Green Bay’s lack of a strong pass defense, but who on Chicago is going to exploit that matchup? Green Bay should win this game by nearly two touchdowns, and Chicago loses a lot of prep time on a short week. PICK: Packers
NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) “at” MIAMI (in London, England)
Wembley Stadium hosts the NFL for the second week in a row, this time with the Saints taking on the Dolphins early on Sunday morning (be sure to check your fantasy lineups early). Both teams have made this trip before, but Miami did it as recently as 2015, while New Orleans only went to England once back in 2008. So who will have an advantage? Probably neither due to the trip itself, but the team that best adjusts to the morning game will have an advantage. That is clearly New Orleans, who come off of a big win in Carolina on Sunday and then immediately flew across the pond to spend the entire week in London. Miami suffered a bad, bad loss to the Jets in New Jersey on Sunday, then had to trek back to Florida before their planned flight on Friday. That is going to take its toll, and Drew Brees will be ready to pick apart Miami’s defense come Sunday morning. I expect the Saints to jump out to an early lead and win by a large margin. Saints 27, Dolphins 16. PICK: Saints
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at BALTIMORE
Baltimore looked abysmal in London last Sunday morning, losing 44-0 before a cheap late touchdown got them on the scoreboard in total garbage time. Now the Steelers come to Maryland after a bad loss themselves, having suffered an overtime loss in Chicago last week. That means both 2-1 teams really want the win, especially in the divison, and no love is lost between these two franchises. The problem for the Ravens is that their offensive and defensive lines are both a mess, and their passing game also does not look very good. Pittsburgh should get a big road win here to take a big step towards winning the AFC North, even in early October. PICK: Steelers
ATLANTA (-8) vs. BUFFALO
Good team at home (Atlanta, 3-0) vs. a questionable 2-1 team in Buffalo on the road. No disrespect to the Bills, but how can you trust a team who has one of their two wins over the Jets and a bad 9-3 loss to Carolina on their record? It makes me question the 26-16 win against Denver last week as a fluke. This contest will tell me a lot more about Buffalo, but I really suspect that Atlanta is several tiers better than the Bills at this point. PICK: Falcons
CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
This game could be very ugly, as the offenses have not started to get in gear yet as both passing offenses are averaging below average yards per attempt and yards per carry, but the story of this game could be told by the weaker defense. The Browns are in the bottom 25% of the league in passing yards allowed per attempt, and A.J. Green just got on track last week thanks to a great matchup against the Packers. That should be enough of a difference for the Bengals to get their first win of the year and drop Cleveland to 0-4 on the year. PICK: Bengals
DALLAS (-7.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Cowboys are on a short week after a road win on Monday Night Football against the Cardinals, but they get to travel back to Texas to host the Rams. Los Angeles is a somewhat surprising 2-1 team so far, but how strong is that record? They beat San Francisco last Thursday on the road thanks to a huge game by Todd Gurley, but it was still a close and high scoring affair (41-39 Rams). They also have a Week 1 win at home over Indianapolis, who started the year completely terrible yet managed a win over Cleveland at home last week. The Rams’ only loss came in a close game at Washington that was decided late. So how will Los Angeles match up against Dallas? If the Cowboys’ defense can hold up – and I think that they can – then it comes down to the Dallas offense against the Rams defense, which is a favorable matchup for Dallas. This game might be a little closer early, but I expect the Cowboys to pull away late and win by two scores. PICK: Cowboys
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT (OFF)
There is no line on this game, but do we really need one? The Vikings are winning and looking good while doing it even if Sam Bradford is not under center. If Minnesota can put up 30+ points with Case Keenum as the starting quarterback, I have a hard time picking against them. They are looking good both running and passing the ball and the defense is stepping up once again. Detroit will have a hard time on the road, so give me the home team even if they are favored by as many as six points. PICK: Vikings
NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs. CAROLINA
I am not going to pick the Panthers this week, especially at New England, and I may not pick Carolina at all again this season. The Carolina 2-1 record feels like a fraud to me with narrow wins over the Bills (9-3 at home) and at San Francisco (23-3 in Week 1). The Panthers were exposed and blown out at home by New Orleans, and Carolina could only score 13 points against a defense considered to be very soft. I am taking Tom Brady for another big performance in Week 4. PICK: Patriots
JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) at NEW YORK JETS
Jacksonville demolished the Ravens in London last Sunday, and I think they pulled a brilliant move by not taking the bye week right after that trip. Now they get to carry that momentum to the Jets game who just got their first win of the year at home against Miami, where the Jets shut down Jay Ajayi and the Miami offense until the final play of the game. The Jaguars ran well last week but this is a good matchup of a good run game against a good run defense, at least based on last week. I do expect the Jaguars to find ways to exploit matchups against New York, as they really are not as good as they looked last week and Jacksonville is much better right now. Will the game be a pretty one to watch? Probably not, but I do expect Jacksonville to emerge from this game victorious. As such, I am not even going to get concerned about laying the points and just take the Jaguars here. PICK: Jaguars
HOUSTON (+1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
This is a very dangerous game to pick, as the Titans have let other teams put up big points and numbers against them (Oakland’s Derek Carr and 26 points for the Raiders in Week 1, and Seattle’s Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns last week in a 33-27 loss), while Houston nearly pulled a big upset in Foxboro last Sunday over New England. The Titans have been moving the ball well on offense all year, scoring 70 points in the past two weeks, and I expect them to score 21+ this week. So the questions about this game come down to how will Houston play at home after losing 36-33 to the Patriots on the road? Will they have more success with Deshaun Watson running well and distributing the ball effectively last week. I expect that to continue in Week 4 and this game to be a tight contest all day long. The Texans’ defense looks better, but the Titans look better on offense. I consider this a toss-up game so I am slightly siding with the home team getting an extra point. PICK: Texans
PHILADELPHIA (+1) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Eagles are flying high after their remarkable win over the Giants last Sunday, coming back to win 27-24 on a 61-yard field goal as time expired to beat their NFC East rivals after blowing a 14-0 lead. Now Philadelphia heads out west to take on the 0-3 Chargers, who will be before a “home crowd” that might be a half-full stadium on Sunday. The Chargers were handed their third loss by the Chiefs last week, 24-10 – which probably saved the Chargers’ kicker’s job after blowing two big kicks at the end of the first two games of the season. The Eagles are balanced on offense and have great defensive talent while the Chargers are still struggling if Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon (who is already having knee issues) struggle. I will take the road team for the straight up win here. PICK: Eagles
ARIZONA (-7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers may have looked lively and nearly won at home last Thursday over the Rams, but Arizona is a much better defense than Los Angeles. San Francisco only found the end zone for the first time last week, so despite the short turnaround for the Cardinals I am definitely on the side of home team in this one. Arizona will take advantage of this matchup and move to 2-2 while the 49ers fall to 0-4. PICK: Cardinals
TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
I refuse to take the Giants given the state of their running game and that offensive line. The Buccaneers struggled last week, but Minnesota is very good. The Giants show no real signs – outside of Odell Beckham Jr – of being a good team. PICK: Buccaneers
OAKLAND (+3) at DENVER
Oakland did not look very good last week in Washington, but I would argue that the Broncos looked worse. Denver’s offense will be tested here as I believe that the Raiders will pick at the gaps in the Denver defense (rushing, receivers inside the numbers) and find ways to put up points. This could easily be a 27-24 type contest, but either team could win – and I firmly believe that Oakland has more talent. I will gladly take the better team getting points, even on the road. PICK: Raiders
SEATTLE (-13) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The Tennessee Titans’ defense (or lack thereof) woke up Russell Wilson from his long slumber. I really do not care that the Colts won at home last week over Cleveland – going out and competing on the road against a Seattle team that is heating up is no spot to pick for an upset. PICK: Seahawks
(Monday) KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON
NFL Week 4 wraps up with a battle of teams that have winning records and have won two in a row, but that about ends the points of comparison. Washington looked strong against Oakland, thanks to their defense and Oakland forgetting to cover Chris Thompson. The Chiefs have stormed through the league, beating the Patriots, Eagles and then the Chargers last week. Two of those three teams look like potential playoff teams, and Philadelphia took care of Washington pretty easily in Week 1. While the transitive property does not always apply for football, I am willing to say that the Chiefs will take care of Washington if only because they cannot stop a tight end. Expect Travis Kelce to have a huge evening. PICK: Chiefs
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
For the Win (Money Lines):
- CLEVELAND (“FOR THE WIN” +150) vs. CINCINNATI
- LOS ANGELES RAMS (“FOR THE WIN” +230) at DALLAS
- SAN FRANCISCO (“FOR THE WIN” +280) at ARIZONA
- OAKLAND (“FOR THE WIN” +125) at DENVER
NOTE – Cleveland, SF, and the Rams are just taking good odds here.
- PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
- DALLAS (-7.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- ARIZONA (-7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- OAKLAND (+3) at DENVER
Teasers:
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA (UNDER 54.5)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.1-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- ATLANTA (-2) vs. BUFFALO
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- ATLANTA (-2) vs. BUFFALO
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (8.9-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- ATLANTA (-2) vs. BUFFALO
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO (OVER 39.5)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (12.75-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. CAROLINA
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- ATLANTA (-2) vs. BUFFALO
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO (OVER 39.5)
- SEATTLE (-7) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (18.25-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. CAROLINA
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- ATLANTA (-2) vs. BUFFALO
- (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO (OVER 39.5)
- SEATTLE (-7) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. CAROLINA (UNDER 54.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-7) vs. CHICAGO
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-7) vs. CHICAGO (OVER 39.5)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.65-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- DALLAS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. CAROLINA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK
Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-9-1 (40%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 8.7-18-1 (32.6%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-6-1 (40%)
Season
- OVERALL: 18-29-1 (38.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 20.2-52-1 (28.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 11-13-1 45.8%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com