Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
I said last week that Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action, and that pretty much held up with my picks being subpar. I was right overall on nine games against the Las Vegas line, but the teasers (and a bad beat for the Colts on a teaser) cost me a solid week. Oh well, we move on – and the good news is that I learned quite a bit about which teams are good, which ones are bad and which ones are still up in the air. I am reminded each year that Weeks 2 and 3 are critical for NFL teams to pick up their first win, as we will all hear from the broadcasting teams about how difficult it is for a team that starts 0-2 or 0-3 to make the postseason. That will go a long way in deciding my calls this week. With all that in mind, off we go for Week 2. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) NEW YORK JETS (EVEN) at BUFFALO
Normally it is best to go with home teams on short weeks, but these two teams know each other well and the trip to Buffalo is a short one for the Jets. Add in that most players are able to turn around quicker early in the season and the Jets should be in good shape to go on the road and get a win here. Both teams know that a loss here is a major setback as the losing team will be 0-2 overall, 0-1 in the division and 0-2 in the conference, so much is at stake already. I believe that the Jets are closer to being a playoff team than the Bills and a win here rights their ship at 1-1. Overall though I don’t love either side and probably would steer clear of this one if I was in a sportsbook in Vegas Thursday. PICK: Jets
CAROLINA (-12.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
This is the game I had circled in my mind for Week 2, as I just love the Panthers here. Carolina is 0-1, yes, but they barely lost to a very good Denver team last Thursday. Meanwhile, San Francisco played the Rams in the final game of Week 1 late on Monday night in a contest that somehow the Rams made the 49ers look like a good team. I am not buying that at all. Carolina is good, San Francisco is not, and the Panthers have maximum rest and are playing at home. San Francisco has the shortest rest possible and get to play at 1PM Eastern on the East Coast. Carolina wins by 20 or more, something like 34-13. PICK: Panthers
BALTIMORE (-6.5) at CLEVELAND
Robert Griffin III just cannot catch a break. The Browns are now forced to go with Josh McCown at quarterback as they open up at home against the Ravens. Baltimore did not exactly set the world on fire at home against Buffalo, but they did look a bit better than Cleveland on the road in Philadelphia. Joe Flacco has good history against Cleveland (although his stats do not reflect this with just 15 touchdown passes against five INTs in his last 10 games vs. the Browns). Until the Browns can sort out their woes after a tough Week 1 loss to the Eagles, I see Flacco outperforming Carson Wentz’s Week 1 numbers in Week 2 against the Browns. A win here for the Ravens gets them to 2-0 overall, 2-0 in the AFC and 1-0 in the division, so this is a critical game for Baltimore. I like them in this spot by more than a touchdown, especially after holding LeSean McCoy and company to just one touchdown last week. PICK: Ravens
DETROIT (-5.5) vs. TENNESSEE
So here is what we know after one week – Detroit can move the ball well against a bad defense, but the Lions’ defense did not exactly shut down Andrew Luck in Week 1. Detroit held on for a 39-35 win in Indianapolis, while the Titans lost 25-16 to the Vikings at home thanks to two Minnesota defensive touchdowns. The Titans were not a big play offense with just two shorter touchdown tosses to DeMarco Murray and not much team offense on the ground. If this game gets into a shootout – which could happen given how Detroit played last week – Stafford and company have to be favored over Tennessee. Look for a Lions home win here before the tougher part of the schedule hits. PICK: Lions
HOUSTON (-2) vs. KANSAS CITY
This one is a tough call as both teams were able to move the ball on offense last week after falling behind at home, but the Chiefs were aided by the opposing team losing their top target (Chargers / Keenan Allen). Houston’s defense woke up at halftime and took over the game against the Bears, but surely the Texans will have a tougher challenge against Kansas City. I like this game to be very entertaining and close, but I smell a little bit of a revenge factor as the Texans want to erase that 30-0 loss from the Wild Card game in January. Brock Osweiler will test the Kansas City secondary and that will set up Lamar Miller against a Chiefs defense that gave up 146 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to San Diego. Tight call, but I like Houston at home to win by at least a field goal. PICK: Texans
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs. MIAMI
Miami managed to hold their own in Seattle last week and nearly stole a win on the road, while the Patriots got the job done impressively in Arizona. Now Miami faces an uphill climb with a trip to Foxboro and an 0-2 record staring them right in the face. New England was hoping for two or three wins until Tom Brady comes back in Week 5, and I doubt they were banking on the win in Arizona last Sunday night. Now it might seem like the Patriots are playing with house money, but they have much to work on to get their offense humming, plus they want to win this week and next with two home divisional games on the slate. I expect LeGarrette Blount to pound the ball against the Dolphins and Rob Gronkowski to return to action as New England wins by more than a touchdown in their home opener. Patriots 27, Dolphins 13. PICK: Patriots
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) vs NEW ORLEANS
Oakland picked the Saints apart last week and stole a win down in the Big Easy in Week 1, while the Giants held on for a narrow 20-19 win over the Cowboys to start the season. Eli Manning has to be amped up to face this poor secondary, while Rashad Jennings will want to get the ball early and often. New Orleans is not the same team on the road, and I am expecting the Giants’ passing game to build off of the win over Dallas to get their first home victory and move to 2-0 with their second NFC win. PICK: Giants
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. CINCINNATI
Here is another divisional matchup in Week 2, this time with two 2015 playoff teams from the AFC North. Pittsburgh looked sharp against Washington on Monday Night Football, while the Bengals had to scratch out a last minute win against the Jets with a late field goal to win by the slimmest of margins, 23-22. In my view, the Steelers look better on offense and overall than Cincinnati right now, and Pittsburgh will be geared up for the home opener and a big divisional clash right out of the gate. The extra half-point is a concern, but I like Pittsburgh to top 24 points while the Bengals may not find the end zone more than twice. I expect something like Steelers 27, Bengals 20. PICK: Steelers
DALLAS (+3) at WASHINGTON
Washington looked terrible against Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, but the Ben Roethlisberger-led Pittsurgh Steelers are not the same team as the Dak Prescott-led Dallas Cowboys. If you exclude the quarterback though, Dallas is a very strong rushing team and Washington could do nothing to stop DeAngelo Williams. I expect that will be the plan for Dallas and they will keep it close enough to cover or steal a win in a big rivalry game. PICK: Dallas
ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
The Cardinals were caught flat footed against New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. It was a close game between Arizona and New England, but a few mistakes like a blown coverage against Chris Hogan left the Cardinals with a tough home loss. Tampa Bay will try and attack the rookie corner Brandon Williams, and Jameis Winston will feel pretty good throwing the ball after tossing four touchdowns against Atlanta. David Johnson and Carson Palmer’s passing game will have to step up here to get Arizona to 1-1 on the young season, but I think they can get it done with a second home game in a row against what should be an easier opponent. Tight call, but I like getting Arizona as a favorite just under a touchdown. PICK: Cardinals
SEATTLE (-6) at LOS ANGELES
Here comes an NFC West showdown between two teams that did not look very strong in Week 1. Seattle somehow managed a tight win at home over Miami despite a sputtering offense, while the Rams made San Francisco look like a strong team on both sides of the ball. I think that the Seahawks are a good enough team to shake off the Week 1 rust and get Russell Wilson back under center with complementary supporting cast members around him. After watching all of the late Monday Night Football contest, I am convinced that the Rams are not going to be able to fix that offense any time soon. Seattle should get a dominant victory as football returns to Los Angeles. Seahawks 27, Rams 9. PICK: Seahawks
DENVER (-5.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
This is the game I am calling for a 54-51 type score. Okay, maybe not that high, but you can expect a lot of points in this one. Denver is going to attack that bad Colts defense that was exposed by Detroit in Week 1. Trevor Siemian looked solid against Carolina on opening night and both he and C.J. Anderson should post big fantasy production at home in Week 2. Andrew Luck will be tested against a much tougher defense, but he will still put up solid fantasy numbers as well because he will be the main offense for Indianapolis. I just do not think that the Colts will be able to score enough, nor defend enough, to keep up with the Broncos. Denver wins 37-27. PICK: Broncos
ATLANTA (+5) at OAKLAND
I like both of these teams and what they offer on offense, and I am expecting a high scoring game here. Atlanta visits the Black Hole and will be on a slower field, but I can see both teams putting up 24+ points come Sunday. Either team can win this one, and while I slightly favor the Raiders, I see the points as too much to cover. PICK: Falcons
JACKSONVILLE (+3) at SAN DIEGO
Jacksonville suffered a Week 1 loss at home to Green Bay, but the loss for the Chargers was much greater than going 0-1. Keenan Allen’s torn ACL puts a major damper on the young season, and the overtime loss to the Chiefs could be the start of a downward spiral for San Diego after an impressive start to the year. Blake Bortles nearly pulled off the comeback against Green Bay at home, and I think the Jaguars continue to build on that “moral victory” to post their first 2016 win here in Week 2. PICK: Jaguars
GREEN BAY (-2.5) at MINNESOTA
The Vikings won last week in Tennessee on the road, 25-16, but that was sparked by two defensive touchdowns that extended that lead. Green Bay jumped out to a lead and held on in Jacksonville for a road win in Week 1, and they will look to get another at the new Vikings’ facility. Adrian Peterson is always a threat, but Minnesota is too reliant on him and their defense to keep up with the Packers. Playing under a roof again only makes life easier for Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. The fans will be lively in the new digs, but I still think Green Bay gets the job done on the road against an inferior offense. PICK: Packers
(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+3) vs. CHICAGO
Week 2 closes with two teams likely not heading for the playoffs this year, but there is still some interest for a lot of NFL fans. Getting a look at Carson Wentz and the new Philadelphia offense will be of note, as will getting a look at Jeremy Langford and Kevin White as new starters for the Bears. I can see Chicago getting amped up here for a much needed win at home after starting the season 0-1, but Wentz is a big wild card along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense. Mistakes will be key, as Jay Cutler is likely to see a lot of pressure from the Philadelphia front seven. If he makes mistakes like he did in the second half in Houston, I like the Eagles to steal this one. If the Bears can put together 60 minutes like the first 30 they played against the Texans, then the Bears will win. My call is something in between, and the Eagles will keep it close enough to cover and make this a fun game to watch and close out the week. PICK: Eagles
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Week 2 looks about as tough as Week 1. While the plan in Week 1 was to play teasers, it didn’t pay off – but I am still going back to that well this week. Here are some that I like:
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) at LOS ANGELES
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+1.5) vs NEW ORLEANS
- CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- GREEN BAY (+3.5) at MINNESOTA
- CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO (UNDER 51.5)
- DETROIT (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- HOUSTON (+4) vs. KANSAS CITY
- HOUSTON vs. KANSAS CITY (+8.5)
With those “likes” in mind, here are my selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-6.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (-6) at LOS ANGELES
- CAROLINA (-12.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO (UNDER 51.5)
- DALLAS (+3) at WASHINGTON
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (EVEN ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO (UNDER 51.5)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) at CLEVELAND
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) at LOS ANGELES
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) at LOS ANGELES
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+1.5) vs NEW ORLEANS
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) at LOS ANGELES
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+1.5) vs NEW ORLEANS
- DETROIT (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- GREEN BAY (-2.5) at MINNESOTA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Carolina, Baltimore, New England, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Arizona, Seattle, Green Bay
Results
Last Week / Season
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 9-14 (39.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
