Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. The preseason is the preseason and none of that matters. Some teams play vanilla offense and/or defense so the talents and the intangibles are where you really have to make your picks. I have to admit that I was very tempted to just take all of the overs this week with all the emphasis on offense, but two things are holding me back. First, Vegas knows that people love to bet the over, so the totals are usually going to be a little higher than one might expect. Secondly, defenses tend to be ahead of offenses early in the season. I think I will let a lot of this play out in Week 1 and then start to really dig in. Remember that this is a marathon, not a sprint. It is definitely going to be an interesting opening week. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) CAROLINA (-3) at DENVER
The defending Super Bowl champions open the NFL season with a Thursday Night Football special in the Mile High city. Gone is Peyton Manning and the stakes that were on the table back in February, but the Panthers will look to enact some semblance of revenge here regardless. Trevor Siemian is now the starting quarterback for the defending Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos. Let that sink in for a minute. Then pick Cam Newton to win his opening night contest on the road. Denver's defense will be stingy, but they will not have the same level of intensity or motivation that existed in Super Bowl 50. Panthers win on Thursday to start the season. PICK: Panthers
ATLANTA (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta had a disastrous season in 2015, and they will look to get out of the gate strong and fast in Week 1. The Falcons host the Buccaneers in a divisional clash to start the season, and Matt Ryan will look to get the offense humming again. Tampa Bay is a solid team in their own right, so I can honestly see this one going in either direction, but I like the home favorite slightly. PICK: Falcons
BALTIMORE (-3) vs. BUFFALO
In case you missed this potential Narrative Street, Tyrod Taylor heads back to Baltimore here in Week 1. Taylor was the backup for Joe Flacco for years until he moved on to Buffalo, and Taylor should have some local fan representation as he went to Virginia Tech and is from the Virginia Beach (Hampton, VA) area. Yes, i know that it is about five hours from Baltimore, but Hokies fans are used to that trip (many Hokie alums in the DC area). Aside from that little fact, I still like the home team Ravens a little more in this one. I know that preseason counts for nothing, but the Ravens went 4-0 in practice games and they are looking to get back to their winning ways. This year could be a challenging one for both teams, but Baltimore is at home and they want to get that first win before two long trips to Oakland and Jacksonville. The Bills want it just as bad with three rough games next on the schedule (Jets on Thursday in Week 2, then Arizona and at New England). This has all the makings of the better defense and special teams winning a low scoring, ugly contest - and that plays right in the hands of Baltimore. I don't love this pick, but a game of kickers should be won by Justin Tucker, not Dan Carpenter. Ravens 19, Buffalo 16. PICK: Ravens
HOUSTON (-6) vs. CHICAGO
The Texans have rebuilt their offense with the additions of Brock Osweiler, Lamar Miller and young targets at wide receiver to complement DeAndre Hopkins and a very strong defense. The Bears, however, were hemorraging players with Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett gone. Of course, they still have Jay Cutler. That makes this pick even easier. Houston for a big home opening win, 34-13. PICK: Texans
JACKSONVILLE (+5.5) vs. GREEN BAY
I get it - Green Bay is supposed to be very good, while Jacksonville is, well, Jacksonville. Not so fast though with this pick - the Jaguars have been up and coming and they made major strides on defense as well. Green Bay is reportedly going to limit Jordy Nelson's snaps and for me the jury is still out on Eddie Lacy as a feature back. I like the Packers to win here, but I think the Jaguars have made a living in covering point spreads. PICK: Jaguars
KANSAS CITY (-7) vs. SAN DIEGO
This one goes in the “why can’t it be six points” bucket for me, but Las Vegas is supposed to make this difficult. I am not going to let one point sway me, nor am I going to care if it is Jamaal Charles or Spencer Ware. Arrowhead is a tough place to visit, even as a divisional team, let alone on Opening Day. Philip Rivers can make a respectable showing, but his receivers are already starting to look like a M*A*S*H unit with Stevie Johnson out and who knows how long Antonio Gates can hold up. I see the Chiefs leaping out to a two score lead in the first half and pinning their ears back to get after Rivers. Kansas City gets the win here. PICK: Chiefs
OAKLAND (+1) at NEW ORLEANS
Another "Pick 'em" game this week with the Raiders heading to the Big Easy to take on the Saints to start the new season. Oakland is a sleeper for a playoff contender for me, while the Saints are still rebuilding on both sides of the ball. While I love Drew Brees and what the offense can do, Derek Carr and his targets can carve up the New Orleans defense. I think Oakland just plays faster than New Orleans and gets the road win here. PICK: Raiders
NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
Both of these teams were capable of reaching the postseason last year (Bengals did, Jets just missed at 10-6). The Jets feel like they added more (Matt Forte, for example) while the Bengals lost valuable players in Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones and now will likely be without Tyler Eifert. I see the Jets getting the win at home here. PICK: Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
This game is another tough one. The Eagles were originally favored by six points, and now it is at four and falling. Of course, when the line opened the starting quarterback for Philadelphia was still Sam Bradford, not rookie Carson Wentz. I still like the Eagles at home to win a game that an average team should win over a bad Browns team, but I am very low on the confidence meter. PICK: Eagles
MINNESOTA (-1.5) at TENNESSEE
In a word - yuck. This game is my pick for first 1PM Eastern game to finish, as I expect about 75+ rushes for both teams. Tennessee will try and impose their will with their "Exotic Smashmouth" offense with Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray, while some guy named Adrian Peterson will get most of the work for the Vikings. With Teddy Bridgewater lost for the year, Minnesota is probably going with Sam Bradford to hand the ball to the running backs most of the time and hoping the ground game and defense can get the win. I think they can, but it will not be pretty. PICK: Vikings
SEATTLE (-10.5) vs. MIAMI
The only question here is if Miami can keep this one close. Seattle opens at home and is a very tough place to visit, and the Dolphins have not looked good this preseason (and not too great last year, either). This is the biggest point spread game by far, and for good reason. I could see Seattle jumping out 14-0 early and cruising to a 27-6 type win. PICK: Seahawks
NEW YORK GIANTS (EVEN) at DALLAS
Everyone (at least in DFS) is going ga-ga for Dak Prescott, but what about Eli Manning and the Giants defense? Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball plenty, but if the Giants stack the box and shut him down (and you know that will be Plan A for the defense), can Prescott win his first ever NFL game? I like the Giants to play the "no respect" card in the locker room and come out of Big D with a Big W. PICK: Giants
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. DETROIT
Put me in the camp of this game being one of the highest scoring games this week, if not the top one overall. I can see both teams breaking the 30 point barrier, but the Colts have more at stake here as they have to get out to a fast start with a trip to Denver in Week 2. Much is expected of Indianapolis, but the same cannot be said about the Lions. How will Detroit rebound without Calvin Johnson? Can Golden Tate really be a WR1 for his team? I don't think so, and I think Matthew Stafford will be under fire this week. Another question is how will the run game look for either team? I see a pass-happy, back and forth contest with the Colts getting more turnovers, shorter fields and points. Colts 34, Lions 24. PICK: Colts
ARIZONA (-6) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Jimmy Garappolo is starting instead of Tom Brady for four weeks, and you better believe that Bill Belichick is just hoping to go 2-2 to start the year in not too much of a hole. That won't be easy with a trip to Arizona on Sunday Night Football to start the season, but three home games after this one (Miami, Houston and Buffalo) should afford two wins there. The Cardinals want to start fast and get ahead of division rival Seattle in what could be a race for the #1 seed in the NFC this year. I like the Cardinals on both sides of the ball more, especially at home and with no Tom Brady. PICK: Cardinals
(Monday) PITTSBURGH (-3) at WASHINGTON
As we saw last year, the Steelers can lose a few key pieces of that stellar offense and keep on producing. Even with no LeVeon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger should do just fine with Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams. Do not forget about Jesse James at tight end either, as he could be quite the sleeper this season. Washington hands things over to Kirk Cousins again this year, but Matt Jones is now the clear lead back in town. This one could turn into a high scoring affair, but I like the Steelers on the road (and with good road fan support in DC) to nudge out the victory, 28-24. PICK: Steelers
(Monday) LOS ANGELES (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
Who doesn't love double-header Monday Night? San Francisco once again hosts the final game of Week 1, this time hosting the Rams, who have a shorter trip up from southern Cal and their new Los Angeles home. The Rams will travel well with their stud running back (Todd Gurley) and strong defense, both of which should find the road rather easy against a very bad 49ers team. I like the Rams to win by a touchdown or more here to close out a big weekend of NFL football. PICK: Rams
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
As I said earlier, Week 1 is tough. I think Las Vegas has done a very good job of making lines, even with all the personnel changes in recent weeks. The way I would play this week is to look at the teams I think would win and then tease them together (similar to how I play the NFL playoffs). That narrowed my focus down to eight games for 6-point teasers. Here is how I rank them:
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- ARIZONA (EVEN) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- GREEN BAY (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at DALLAS
- (Monday) LOS ANGELES (+4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+3) at WASHINGTON
With those “likes” in mind, here are my selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) CAROLINA (-3) at DENVER
- JACKSONVILLE (+5.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- KANSAS CITY (-7) vs. SAN DIEGO
- MINNESOTA (-1.5) at TENNESSEE
- SEATTLE (-10.5) vs. MIAMI
- ARIZONA (-6) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (-3) at WASHINGTON
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- ARIZONA (EVEN) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- ARIZONA (EVEN) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- GREEN BAY (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- ARIZONA (EVEN) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- GREEN BAY (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at DALLAS
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- ARIZONA (EVEN) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- GREEN BAY (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at DALLAS
- (Monday) LOS ANGELES (+4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. SAN DIEGO
- INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
- ARIZONA (EVEN) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- GREEN BAY (+0.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at DALLAS
- (Monday) LOS ANGELES (+4) at SAN FRANCISCO
- (Monday) PITTSBURGH (+3) at WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- HOUSTON (-6) vs. CHICAGO
- NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (EVEN) at DALLAS
- INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. DETROIT
- (Monday) LOS ANGELES (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Houston, Kansas City, New York Jets, Minnesota, New York Giants, Arizona, Los Angeles
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.