Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Well, last week I did say that Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. Well, my record for the week certainly proved that right, as it was pretty mediocre for all of the games (7-8-1) and even worse on my best picks – but you have to like the outcome of my teasers (68% correct). Not too shabby. None of that matters now for Week 2, so let’s dive in for the next set of games:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
We all know about the Ray Rice controversy, but the bottom line is that the Ravens are going to be very anxious to get back out on the field and they need to beat Pittsburgh at home to be competitive in the tough AFC North. The Steelers barely escaped a tough challenge from Cleveland last week, and a short week before a road game is never easy. Baltimore needs this game more, and these two franchises are bitter rivals, so give me the home team by the field goal in a hard fought contest. PICK: Ravens
MIAMI (+1) at BUFFALO
Miami put big time pressure on Tom Brady last week at home, and now they go on the road for their second AFC East contest to start the season. Buffalo heads home after a big road win in Chicago, and they will look to start the season at 2-0 (just like the Dolphins want to do). Both teams want to run the ball, but I think this game gets decided by turnovers and better quarterback play, and that makes me side with Ryan Tannehill. Knowshon Moreno will get over 100 yards again as Miami takes the lead in the division. Dolphins 23, Bills 17. PICK: Dolphins
DETROIT (+3) at CAROLINA
Detroit looked fantastic on Monday Night Football, pounding the Giants at home to open the season. Carolina opened up with a Week 1 win over Tampa Bay on the road, and now they get to head home to host Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. Carolina still lacks offensive playmakers and they easily handled the Buccaneers on Sunday, but Detroit is a different story. The Lions just have too many playmakers to hold them down under 24 points, while I do not see Carolina getting that much on the scoreboard. Detroit should win by a score like 27-20. PICK: Lions
CINCINNATI (-5) vs. ATLANTA
Atlanta is going to be a hot pick this week, getting points on the road after a big win over New Orleans in Week 1, but this is not a home opener in the NFC South. Cincinnati had to rally to beat the Ravens in Week 1 in Baltimore, but their defense is very stout and they can rush after a pocket passer like Matt Ryan. Atlanta will try and turn this into a shootout but I like the Bengals defense and their run game to control this contest from start to finish. PICK: Bengals
NEW ORLEANS (-6) at CLEVELAND
The Saints need a win, especially after a road loss to Atlanta in the division to start the season. Cleveland is used to bad starts to begin the year, but they had Pittsburgh on the ropes in Week 1. The Browns will try and establish a run attack all day, but Ben Tate is now out and they will have to rely on both Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. I expect the New Orleans defense to stack the box and score 17 or more in the first half, taking away the Cleveland game plan. Drew Brees gets another 300 yards passing and the Saints get a much needed win, while the home fans in Cleveland start chanting for Johnny Football. PICK: Saints
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at MINNESOTA
I will be honest that I really do not like picking this game. I can see so many different outcomes here, from a Patriots rout to a huge home win for the Vikings, especially after Minnesota dominated St. Louis last week. The only reason I am taking New England here is a belief that they won’t start the season 0-2, so I will give the 3 points, very reluctantly. In reality (and in Vegas) I would skip this contest. PICK: Patriots
ARIZONA (-1.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
This one feels like an easy call – Arizona looked good in Week 1 on Monday Night Football (late), while the Giants looked abysmal against Detroit in the early Monday Night Football contest. Is this an East Coast bias? Not sure, but I like Arizona to move to 2-0 and the Giants to fall to 0-2 as their season starts to spiral out of control early. PICK: Cardinals
TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs. DALLAS
So you are telling me that Dallas looks terrible in Week 1, and the Titans go on the road and demolish the Chiefs, yet the Titans are just a field goal favorite at home? That is total disrespect for the Titans, who will beat the Cowboys by double digits. PICK: Titans
JACKSONVILLE (+6) at WASHINGTON
The Jaguars lost by 17 at Philadelphia, but they led 17-0 at halftime and gave the Eagles all they could handle in Week 1. Washington was pathetic against Houston, where Robert Griffin III’s first half was summed up by this statistic: Washington’s average pass in the first half against the Texans was 0.8 yards past the line of scrimmage. Jacksonville is better than you think, and Washington is far worse. Jacksonville definitely covers and I think they win this game outright. PICK: Jaguars
SEATTLE (-5.5) at SAN DIEGO
The Chargers defense is pretty good, but the Seattle defense is much better. Nothing travels better than a good defense, but a strong run game is a close second. Marshawn Lynch should rack up over 100 yards again as the Seahawks show once again why they are the best team in football right now. Seahawks win by 10-14 points. PICK: Seahawks
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
Here is another game that will be buried on the TV schedule, but they all still count. St. Louis looked terrible last week against the Vikings, while Tampa Bay did not look much better at home against Carolina. So why take the Buccaneers giving points? They have more playmakers in the passing game and they held a much better team (Carolina) to fewer points than the Rams did against Minnesota in Week 1. Hard to make big judgments after just one game, but I have zero confidence in the Rams offense, so give me the Buccaneers to win at home by about a touchdown in an ugly contest, something like 20-13. PICK: Buccaneers
KANSAS CITY (+13.5) at DENVER
Denver has an amazing offense, and Kansas City looked bad in Week 1, but I cannot give Denver a two touchdown margin here. Alex Smith gets Dwayne Bowe back this week and I expect the Chiefs offense to get back on track here against a divisional rival, even on the road. I still like Denver to win and score 30+ points, but the Chiefs are certainly capable of putting up a respectable total and keep this game within the spread (especially if there are garbage time scores late). PICK: Chiefs
GREEN BAY (-8) vs. NEW YORK JETS
The Packers head home after a long week of rest and a road opener in Seattle last Thursday. The Jets did play well at home against Oakland, but the Raiders are not a good basis of judgment for how good a franchise is right now. I like Aaron Rodgers to get the offense going at home and rack up 30 or more against the weak New York Jets secondary, while Geno Smith and the run game will be out of their game plan by halftime. Take the Packers in a blowout in their home opener, something like 37-13. PICK: Packers
HOUSTON (-2.5) at OAKLAND
The Texans dominated Washington at home last week, while the Raiders had to rally just to make the score respectable at the Jets in Week 1. Now Oakland heads home, but their offense will not look any better against a very tough Texans defense. I expect Houston to control both lines of scrimmage and get a solid road win against arguably the worst team in the NFL right now. Texans by double digits. PICK: Texans
CHICAGO (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco opens up their new stadium on Sunday Night Football against the visiting Chicago Bears, who suffered a bad loss to Buffalo at home in Week 1. San Francisco looked dominant in Dallas last week, but much of that was due to Tony Romo throwing three bad interceptions to stake the 49ers to an early lead. I think both offenses will perform well here and the Bears will keep it close, but I still like the 49ers to win their home opener in Levi’s Stadium. Chicago keeps it close enough to cover, but take San Francisco for the win, 27-24. PICK: 49ers
(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts and the Eagles are two fast-paced, high-scoring teams, so you have to expect this game to be a showcase of offense. The Eagles will try and run the ball against a weak Indianapolis run defense, while Andrew Luck will air it out against a mediocre Philadelphia secondary. The game is about a close call as you can expect to see, so give me the Eagles and the points and hope for the best in what should be a very entertaining contest. PICK: Eagles
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
- MIAMI (+1) at BUFFALO
- DETROIT (+3) at CAROLINA
- DETROIT (“FOR THE WIN” +130) at CAROLINA
- NEW ORLEANS (-6) at CLEVELAND
- ARIZONA (-1.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs. DALLAS
- JACKSONVILLE (+6) at WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (“FOR THE WIN” +225) at WASHINGTON
- HOUSTON (-2.5) at OAKLAND
- (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +150) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 6-POINT TEASER: SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO (OVER 42.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+9.5) at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 47)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
- SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
- SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
- SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
- SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
- SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- GREEN BAY (-2) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
- SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
- SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- GREEN BAY (-2) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- HOUSTON (+3.5) at OAKLAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Baltimore, Miami, Detroit, New Orleans, Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
