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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. The preseason is the preseason and none of that matters. Some teams play vanilla offense and/or defense so the talents and the intangibles are where you really have to make your picks. I have to admit that I was very tempted to just take all of the overs this week with the new anti-defensive rules in place, but I will refrain from that because who knows how they will really call Week 1. After all, it was preseason for the referees too. It is definitely going to be an interesting opening week. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) SEATTLE (-5) vs. GREEN BAY
The defending Super Bowl champions open the NFL season with a Thursday Night Football special in Seattle. The Seahawks hope to open up their 2014 campaign with another home win, this time over the visiting Green Bay Packers. This game will be the first test of the new rules for (or against) aggressive pass defending, a staple for the Seattle secondary. I still like the Seahawks to win in what will be a very hostile environment for Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy to visit, and do not forget that the Seahawks are a better team from top to bottom as well. Seahawks win an entertaining opening night contest, 27-20. PICK: Seahawks
NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) at ATLANTA
Week 1 really gives you some interesting data points, as I was able to go back in time and find the early NFL Week 1 point spreads. The Saints were originally not the favorite in this contest back when the schedule was first announced, with Atlanta opening as a 2-point favorite. Now it is has flipped to New Orleans, a team as of Sunday morning that does not even have a placekicker on their roster. I don’t think Jimmy Graham or Drew Brees really cares. Atlanta’s offensive line is a mess and their defense is not that stellar either. I think Matt Ryan can get the ball to his receivers enough to score plenty of points, but they will lose more shootouts than they win this season. PICK: Saints
BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. CINCINNATI
The Ravens jump right in for a tough schedule out of the gate, facing three AFC North contests in Weeks 1-3. The Bengals visit Baltimore and will look to run the ball down the Ravens’ throats with Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Baltimore will be without Ray Rice, but it remains to be seen how big of a season Bernard Pierce will have in 2014. I actually think the Ravens will be more of a passing team than most expect, with Joe Flacco moving the sticks with Dennis Pitta and Steve Smith while Torrey Smith has a strong year. The Bengals were better on the road than at home last season, so my analysis leads me to a coin flip type of contest here. Give me the home team in a tough call. PICK: Ravens
CHICAGO (-6) vs. BUFFALO
The Bears are going to be underrated this year, and are going to contend for the NFC North crown. Nothing will help that cause more than a home win against a very suspect team with quarterback concerns. Chicago will run and throw all over the Bills in their home opener and win by double digits. PICK: Bears
HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Washington has had question marks about their offense and quarterback situation throughout the preseason. While the Texans may have their own issues (the health of Arian Foster, their quarterback situation with Ryan Fitzpatrick), I still like the home team with the better defense. Give me a home team favored by less than a field goal to pull off the close win in Week 1 here. A loss by Robert Griffin III here will only stoke the fire for Kirk Cousins supporters, who may be chanting for the backup quarterback in Washington next week (home against Jacksonville in Week 2). PICK: Texans
KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs. TENNESSEE
The Titans are starting to show some signs of improvement, and they have one of the most underrated collection of receivers in the NFL with Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. Now, as far as their ground game, Shonn Greene and Bishop Sankey leave much to be desired, and are far cries from Jamaal Charles. Alex Smith will get the job done, even without Dwayne Bowe in Week 1. Kansas City needs a win here with a trip to Denver looming in Week 2. PICK: Chiefs
NEW ENGLAND (-4) at MIAMI
The more things change, the more they stay the same. New England is favored to win the AFC East, and Miami is having troubles establishing an offensive line and a ground attack. Tom Brady is Tom Brady until he decides to hang it up, and Bill Belichick would love nothing more than to start with a road win in the division. Until the Dolphins establish their offensive identity – something that remains a work in progress – take the perennial AFC East favorite. PICK: Patriots
NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) vs. OAKLAND
This might seem like an easy call, but let me be clear on this point – it is far from a gimme game for the Jets. New York’s secondary is a shambles, and that should not be a problem if Matt Schaub starts for the Raiders, but the level of concern increases dramatically if rookie Derek Carr starts for Oakland on opening day. While the Jets clearly need to start the year on the right foot at home as a favorite before some tough games (at Green Bay, then hosting Chicago), Rex Ryan better have his ducks in a row for a game that could be much tighter than most expect. I still have the Jets winning thanks to their defense, but I would not be surprised if Oakland keeps this close. PICK: Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-10) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Chip Kelly gets the best matchup of the week at home against the Jaguars, where the Eagles are the only double-digit favorite in Week 1. Philadelphia wants to increase the tempo even further this year, pretending the play clock is the NBA version instead of the NFL with an average just under 24 seconds between plays last season. Look for the Eagles to break 30 points at home, and the only concern here is a back door cover by Jacksonville with a late score. I would take my chances here. Eagles 34, Jacksonville 17. PICK: Eagles
PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh needs to win this one, plain and simple. Home opener against a divisional foe that they cannot stand, and the Browns are without Josh Gordon (officially now). I happen to think that Brian Hoyer is a solid starter for Cleveland, but without any legitimate receivers after tight end Jordan Cameron, the Browns are very likely to struggle all year long. Throw in that Pittsburgh’s next two contests are on the road, including a tough trip to Baltimore next week, and I have to think that Ben Roethlisberger gets the job done, and handily, in Week 1. PICK: Steelers
MINNESOTA (+4.5) at ST. LOUIS
When this game was announced for Week 1, the Rams were favored by five points, and now it is down to just a single point of margin. Some of that has to be the loss of Sam Bradford, but Shaun Hill is not a major downgrade at quarterback for the Rams. So why would the Vikings be getting four less points? Minnesota has looked good – without Adrian Peterson, who is resting all August – on offense and defense in the preseason. The Rams have a strong defense, but one or two explosive plays for the Vikings could turn this game well in their favor. I like those odds, and I also like the Vikings to pull a road upset here, something like 20-16. PICK: Vikings
DALLAS (+6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The schedule is full of games in Week 1, but it is a little light at the 4PM (Eastern) Sunday spot with just two contests. The headliner is the 49ers at Dallas, with San Francisco looking to get back to the postseason for the fourth year in a row. Most everyone has heard of the plight of the Dallas defense this year, but guess what – the 49ers are not that stout this year either with rampant injuries and suspensions on that side of the ball. While I do not expect this to quite be the shootout Dallas had with Denver last year, I can see this one being in the 37-34 type contest pretty easily. I like San Francisco to seize control and run it down the throats of the Cowboys, but Tony Romo will hit on some big plays. I will take San Francisco to win, but not as easily as some might expect. Dallas covers here in a high scoring game, one in which I love the over (currently at 50 points). PICK: Cowboys
CAROLINA (+1.5) at TAMPA BAY
This game is the “other” late game this week, and will not get nearly the coverage as the Dallas-San Francisco tilt, and rightly so. Honestly, very few people will be interested in this one here, but I think there is some appeal for fantasy players. Can Doug Martin be a feature back again? Can Josh McCown carry the magic from Chicago down to Tampa Bay? How good is rookie Mike Evans? What about the other rookie receiver in this one, Kelvin Benjamin for the Panthers? How healthy will Cam Newton be, and can he run the offense (or run himself)? Lots of questions, and some like the Buccaneers as a sleeper team this year, but I do know this – if the Panthers want to have any shot at being competitive this season, they need to win this game. Carolina’s schedule gets harder after this one, so they need a victory. I don’t love the pick, but I will take Carolina on the road by about a touchdown. PICK: Panthers
DENVER (-7) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Denver is angry after their big year last year that ended with a giant splat in the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning knows that there are only so many shots left for his career at the title, and a win this week over another team with Super Bowl aspirations will go a long way towards securing home field advantage in the AFC. Against a team like Indianapolis, a dome squad that would not like another trip back to Denver come January, that matters quite a bit. The Colts are not solid at running the ball, while the Broncos will try and establish Montee Ball and some confidence in him during Week 1. I think Manning gets the best of Andrew Luck and wins by double digits in a high scoring affair, something like 37-27. PICK: Broncos
(Monday) DETROIT (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Who doesn't love double-header Monday Night? I know I do, even if it means football well past midnight. So be it – this only happens once a season. Detroit gets a big kickoff for their season by hosting the Giants, a team that could be a stranger to prime time games next year unless they show some improvement. Eli Manning has not gotten the new offense rolling in the preseason, and counting on Week 1 for everything to click is asking for too much. Detroit has a host of weapons on offense and Calvin Johnson wants to show off on Monday Night Football, while the defense wants to pin their ears back and chase Manning as much as possible. I think Detroit gets on top early and Manning collects nice garbage time stats, which will happen quite a bit this year. Lions by 10 or more. PICK: Lions
(Monday) ARIZONA (-3) vs. SAN DIEGO
Is it just me, or does San Diego seem to always get one of these late Monday Night Football games? No matter for the Chargers, as a 10:20 Eastern kickoff is fine for a West Coast team, just like it is for the Cardinals. Arizona will look to show everyone that they are a team to be reckoned with after quietly going 10-6 last year and missing the postseason. Carson Palmer has three viable receivers (Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and rookie John Brown) plus starting tailback Andre Ellington is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Meanwhile the Chargers will be asking Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown to push a ground game against a stout Arizona defense. Good luck with that. At least the Chargers get the Cardinals at less than 100% on defense in the secondary with some injuries, but if San Diego tries to stick with running the ball too long, this could get ugly (and East Coasters may get some sleep after all). I like Arizona here. PICK: Cardinals
Best Bets
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
As I said earlier, I gave some serious thought about going after all of the over bets this week, as I think the scores will be higher than expected. I think that the new rules against defensive pass interference will lead to more points, but I have to also remember three things – 1. Defenses are often ahead of offenses early, 2. There is no guarantee that referees call the regular season as tight as they did in the preseason, and 3. The Over/Under totals may already have this higher point expectation priced in. So with that in mind, I am going to tread somewhat lightly in Week 1, but I am going to go after some teaser combinations that bring these totals down to a much better value. Here are the teaser items I like with 6-point teases:
- NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (OVER 45.5)
- CHICAGO (EVEN) vs. BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- NEW ENGLAND (+2) at MIAMI
- PITTSBURGH (EVEN) vs. CLEVELAND
- DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44)
- (Monday) DETROIT vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 40.5)
With those “likes” in mind, here are my selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. CLEVELAND
- MINNESOTA (+4.5) at ST. LOUIS
- NEW ENGLAND (-4) at MIAMI
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) at ATLANTA (OVER 45.5)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- CHICAGO (EVEN) vs. BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (OVER 45.5)
- (Monday) DETROIT vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 40.5)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44)
- (Monday) DETROIT vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 40.5)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (OVER 45.5)
- DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (OVER 45.5)
- DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO (OVER 44)
- (Monday) DETROIT vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 40.5)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- CHICAGO (EVEN) vs. BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (EVEN) vs. CLEVELAND
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- CHICAGO (EVEN) vs. BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (EVEN) vs. CLEVELAND
- NEW ENGLAND (+2) at MIAMI
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- CHICAGO (EVEN) vs. BUFFALO
- KANSAS CITY (+1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (EVEN) vs. CLEVELAND
- NEW ENGLAND (+2) at MIAMI
- NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) at ATLANTA
And what would this column be without at least one shot at a For The Win Money Line?
- MINNESOTA (“FOR THE WIN” +175) at ST. LOUIS
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.