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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Not much to say about last week – it was disappointing, to say the least. Time to move on to the final week of the regular season. Week 17 is one of the most difficult for the year, and the point spreads are very big this week. It will be an interesting one with 13 of 16 contests having playoff implications, so motivation should be easy to spot. So here we go for Week 17:
Byes: Done for 2013.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh still has an outside shot at the playoffs, but only if they win this game. Josh Gordon has played well for Cleveland and this is a divisional game, but the Browns do not have much else left to play for in the last game of the year. Pretty simple call here, really. Take the Steelers to win and cover by a touchdown at least. PICK: Steelers
WASHINGTON (+4) at NEW YORK GIANTS
This is one of the three games this week that have zero bearing on the postseason. The clash between two NFC East teams seems meaningless, but the Giants just knocked off Detroit in overtime last week while Washington pushed the Cowboys to the brink of elimination last week. Kirk Cousins is playing for his future while the Giants have several players injured and many of them are gearing up to end the year. This one is close to a coin flip but I like Washington with Cousins and Alfred Morris ready to go while Eli Manning is left with a second string supporting cast. PICK: Washington
BALTIMORE (+6) at CINCINNATI
Both teams are motivated here, as Cincinnati is 7-0 at home and wants to complete the perfection with their eighth home win on Sunday to keep the momentum for the playoffs. Baltimore is just trying to win to stay alive for a shot at the postseason. Joe Flacco is banged up and the Ravens are reeling after a bad loss to New England last week, but they have to go big or go home. With the motivation and the touchdown head start, I like Baltimore to cover and possibly pull the upset. PICK: Ravens
TENNESSEE (-7) vs. HOUSTON
This is one of the three games this week that have zero bearing on the postseason. The Titans have been up and down of late, but Houston is the worst team in the league with 13 losses in a row – and a 14th on the horizon. I like The Titans to win and cover the spread this week as Ryan Fitzpatrick finishes the season strong, while Houston limps to the finish. PICK: Titans
JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
Upset special alert here. I am not just taking the Jaguars to cover, but I am taking them to win this game. What??? Here me out. Jacksonville is playing well, while the Colts just pounded the Chiefs. Indianapolis must play next week in the Wild Card Round, and who do you think they want to face? I think they want Kansas City again to come to Indiana this time, and I think the Colts like that matchup, especially after last week’s win in Kansas City. This also gives the Colts a chance to rest some players and to take this game easy, treating it like a quasi-bye. Jacksonville wins, 23-20. PICK: Jaguars
NEW YORK JETS (+6.5) at MIAMI
The Jets are eliminated from a playoff shot, but they are still playing for Rex Ryan and the chance to finish at 8-8. They also have extra incentive to wreck the Dolphins’ chances at a Wild Card berth. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill is banged up and he has been sacked and hit the most of anyone in the league this year. I like the Jets to cover and possibly even pull the upset. PICK: Jets
DETROIT (+3) at MINNESOTA
The Lions have fallen apart while the Vikings are building for next year. Still, this is a tough call, as Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart could both be out. I like Cordarelle Patterson, but he is no Calvin Johnson. Detroit covers and wins, but it will not be pretty. PICK: Lions
CAROLINA (-6) at ATLANTA
Carolina got a huge win last week over the Saints, and now a win in Atlanta gives them a bye, with an outside shot at the first overall seed (they need Seattle to lose and San Francisco to win). The Falcons gave the 49ers a run for their money on Monday Night Football, but Carolina is a much hotter team and motivated to get a bye. I like the Panthers to both win and cover the touchdown, something like 27-13. PICK: Panthers
NEW ORLEANS (-12.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
The Saints are a much better team at home, and New Orleans needs this one to secure a playoff spot. They have an outside shot at the division if Carolina loses to Atlanta along with a Saints win, but that seems unlikely. Tampa Bay’s season has been up and down, but right now they are mostly down after two consecutive losses. Look for New Orleans to put up 30+ points on the Buccaneers and win something like 34-17.. PICK: Saints
NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs. BUFFALO
New England is coming off a big blowout win over Baltimore on the road last week while the Bills just shut out Miami. So which one gives here? I like the Patriots to keep up the momentum towards the postseason. New England needs the win this week to secure the second seed and a bye, and with that in mind I like a double-digit victory here over the divisional rival in Buffalo. Patrtiots 31, Bills 20. PICK: Patriots
SEATTLE (-10) vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle needs to win this game for a number of reasons. First, a loss with wins by San Francisco and Carolina gives home field to Carolina, so you know that the Seahawks do not want to leave Seattle until February’s Super Bowl. Next, the loss to Arizona last week was the first loss in almost two years at home, and finally the Seahawks want and need momentum before the week off before the NFC Divisional Round starts. Put all of that together and I love Seattle to win by at least 14 here. Seattle big, 31-13. PICK: Seahawks
CHICAGO (-2.5) vs. GREEN BAY
The big question remains – will Aaron Rodgers play in this game? That’s what most people are asking, but I have to ask if the defense will give up 50 points again like they did last week. The Chicago defense has been the weakness all year long as the Bears have given up 20 points or more every week this year. I like the Packers to keep that streak alive, but I also like Chicago to keep pace. If Rodgers is out (which I expect based on this pick), I take Chicago. If Rodgers plays though, I would take Green Bay. (Note the line comes from CBS Sports). PICK: Bears
ARIZONA (+1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Here is another upset special that I am calling for this week. Call me crazy, but Arizona just put it to Seattle last week in Seattle, and I would dare say that the Seahawks are better than the 49ers. Now the Cardlnals host San Francisco with the hopes for the postseason for Arizona on the line. The Cardinals have to win to have a shot, and even with a win Arizona needs some help (a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay). Arizona will look for another statement victory to end the year 11-5, regardless of a postseason berth or not. PICK: Cardinals
DENVER (-12) at OAKLAND
Peyton Manning needs to lead his Broncos to another big win this week to secure home field advantage, as a loss combined with a New England win would give the Patriots home field for the playoffs. Oakland does not have much to play for this week, but no Von Miller could be a problem, but Peyton Manning will look to extend his passing touchdowns in a season record. I like Denver by about 14, 35-21. PICK: Broncos
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
On a normal week, San Diego would barely be favored to beat the Chiefs, but this is no ordinary week. Kansas City is locked in to the fifth seed, so they have nothing to play for and are likely to rest some starters for this contest. San Diego loves that, as they must win to have a shot for the playoffs at all. San Diego should win by double digits in a meaningless game for the Chiefs. PICK: Chargers
PHILADELPHIA (-6) at DALLAS
The Eagles rolled all over the Bears last week, 54-11, and they easily could have topped the 60-point line. Now they head to Dallas with the NFC East crown and the third seed on the line, plus some revenge for a 17-3 loss at home to the Cowboys in October. With Tony Romo likely out (and if he plays, he will not be 100%), I love the Eagles to roll all up and over Dallas to destroy the Cowboys’ playoff hopes once again. PICK: Eagles
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- WASHINGTON “FOR THE WIN” (+175) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- BALTIMORE “FOR THE WIN” (+230) at CINCINNATI
- JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+450) at INDIANAPOLIS
- NEW YORK JETS “FOR THE WIN” (+250) at MIAMI
- 6-POINT TEASER: PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. CLEVELAND (OVER 38)
- 6-POINT TEASER: CAROLINA (EVEN) at ATLANTA (OVER 39.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: PHILADELPHIA (EVEN) at DALLAS (OVER 46.5)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (EVEN) at ATLANTA
- PHILADELPHIA (EVEN) at DALLAS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. CLEVELAND
- JACKSONVILLE (+17.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- CAROLINA (EVEN) at ATLANTA
- PHILADELPHIA (EVEN) at DALLAS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1) vs. CLEVELAND
- JACKSONVILLE (+17.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- CAROLINA (EVEN) at ATLANTA
- ARIZONA (+7.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- PHILADELPHIA (EVEN) at DALLAS
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh, Washington, Jacksonville, New York Jets, Carolina, New England, Seattle, Arizona, Philadelphia
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-10 (37.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 3-10 (23.1%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Season
- OVERALL: 114-118-8 (49.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 176.15-117-11 (60.1%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 48-39-6 (55.2%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.