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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 15 was pretty ho-hum overall, going 9-7 on all the games to even my seasonal record at 50%. That doesn’t sound great, but when 50% ATS is my worst record in comparison to all the others, I will take it. I went 6.2-7 on my Star Picks, which lowered my seasonal performance a little, but I remain over 60% there (61.8%). The best of the week was my Best Bets, which hit at 5-1, raising my record to a solid 44-36 or 55% for the season. I will take that. Now, with just two weeks left in the regular season, I have to buckle down and try and finish strong. Last week does not help the picks for this week, so I have to dig deep and push on – but I have to warn you, this week looks rather imposing as Las Vegas did a pretty good job setting the numbers and there are a lot of good matchups. I will still give it my best effort here, as I think I have a pretty good idea of who needs to step it up. So here we go for Week 16:
Byes: Done for 2013.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
MIAMI (-2.5) at BUFFALO
These two AFC East teams know each other well, and that familiarity lends itself to close contests. Buffalo edged Miami in Miami 23-21 back in Week 7, so now would be the Dolphins’ turn to return that favor. Miami needs this game to stay in the playoff hunt and just a step behind Baltimore (both are 8-6 but the Ravens topped Miami 26-23 in Week 5). Buffalo is playing well with EJ Manuel back but Stevie Johnson could be out. Miami has too much to play for right now, so I am taking the Dolphins to win by a field goal, 23-20. PICK: Dolphins
CAROLINA (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina can taste it – a win this week, at home, against the divisional rival is all they really need to secure not just the NFC South but likely the second seed in the NFC playoffs. That’s quite a remarkable feat considering that they were once 1-3, and now they are 10-4 and one of the hottest teams in the NFL with a 9-1 record in the last 10 games (with that one loss to the Saints two weeks ago). Can Carolina turn it around and get revenge for that loss? They have the defense and the run game to get it done, and the Saints are reeling after a bad loss to the Rams on the road. New Orleans does not travel well at all, and they need home games to win – but that will all be for naught after suffering this big loss to the Panthers this week. This will be Cam Newton’s signature performance as he wins the biggest game of his young career to date to take control of the NFC South, with some major assistance from the Carolina defense. PICK: Panthers
CINCINNATI (-7) vs. MINNESOTA
Time to not overthink this one. The Bengals are such a better team at home this year, it is not even funny. Their loss to Pittsburgh was a mess, but much of that was special teams errors early (a bad snap on a punt attempt set up Pittsburgh at the one, and then a punt return by Antonio Brown blew the game open to 21-0). Minnesota is coming off of a solid win at home over the mercurial Philadelphia Eagles, but the Vikings on the road in Cincinnati will have their hands full. This is all about home cooking and motivation. Cincinnati needs to win to stay ahead of Baltimore and set up a Week 17 game with the Ravens that could decide the AFC North title. Most of all, the Bengals need a “W” to get some confidence back and feel once again like a playoff caliber team. Seven points is a lot, but in today’s NFL, points are not exactly hard to come by. I will take Cincinnati to win and cover. PICK: Bengals
DENVER (-10.5) at HOUSTON
Denver needs to get better after a bad loss on a short week against San Diego, and the Houston Texans could be just what the doctor ordered to make the Broncos feel better. Houston has lost 12 games in a row, so really this one should only be about the point spread, not the winner (but then again, we thought that last week). San Diego is 7-7 and has playoff aspirations, while Houston is thinking about who to take first overall in the 2014 NFL Draft. Denver should get better after extra rest and get a win they need to hold on to the top seed in the AFC. I like Denver by 14 o more, something like 38-24. PICK: Broncos
JACKSONVILLE (+5.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville has been playing far better than most people think. Their terrible start to this season where they lost eight in a row is masking the fact that they have won four out of their last six contests with two close (27-20) losses in the last two weeks. Tennessee feels like a team heading in the other direction after being a marginal playoff contender at 5-6 three weeks ago but now falling on hard times with three consecutive losses. These two AFC South teams squared off in Week 10, the very week where Jacksonville got their first win on the year, a road victory at 29-27 in Tennessee that was not even that close. So with all that, I have to take the hotter team at home for the final time this year. Give me Jacksonville and the points, but I also think Jacksonville has a very good shot at winning outright. PICK: Jaguars
KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is rolling again after a rough patch (also known as the “Denver part of the schedule”) a few weeks back. Now the Chiefs have not just won two games in a row – they have destroyed their opponents in landslides – 45-10 over Washington and 56-31 over Oakland – both on the road. Now they head home for what could be the final time this season (if they are the fifth seed and a Wild Card team in the playoffs, they can only host the sixth seed in the AFC Championship Game), so this is the farewell to Arrowhead for 2013. As for the Colts, they have an outside shot of improving their playoff position, but odds are that they will be the third seed in the AFC (and they hope that they will avoid a rematch with the Chiefs in Indianapolis). Throw in that they are banged up and not playing at a high level right now despite a convincing win over Houston last week, and I am taking Kansas City for another double-digit win. PICK: Chiefs
WASHINGTON (+3) vs. DALLAS
There are several reasons to take Washington this week. First, these two teams are NFC East rivals, and quite frankly they cannot stand one another. Second, Washington nearly won the game last week as they went for two to try and beat Atlanta but it fell just short. Kirk Cousins also played well, and Dallas’ defense is the worst in the league. Throw in Tony Romo’s issues in December and his terrible fourth quarter last week against Green Bay and I like the home team getting three points here, and would not be surprised at all to see the upset. PICK: Washington
CLEVELAND (+2.5) at NEW YORK JETS
Not a big fan of this game, to be honest. Both teams are playing out the string, and I can see the Jets trying to play hard for Rex Ryan, while I can see Cleveland trying to continue to play as hard as they have been of late. While New York is a better team at home, right now Cleveland looks to me like the better team with more momentum, so I will take the Browns on the road getting a few points – but again, I don’t love this one. PICK: Browns
ST. LOUIS (-4.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
St. Louis is coming off a big win over New Orleans last week, and they seem to have found their running back for the future in Zac Stacy. Tampa Bay ran into a tough matchup last week at home against the 49ers, and now they close out their season with two road trips to St. Louis and then the Saints in Week 17. I get the feeling that the Rams are trying to build towards next year with positive momentum and they have a shot at finishing the year at 8-8 (although Week 17 in Seattle looks like a tough one, unless the Seahawks rest starters). Considering that the Rams’ defense controlled New Orleans’ offense last week, I have a good feeling that they can control Mike Glennon, Vincent Jackson and Bobby Rainey this Sunday. I like St. Louis to win this one and cover the number against the Buccaneers this week. PICK: Rams
SEATTLE (-10) vs. ARIZONA
I have been all about Arizona as an underrated team this year, but even at 9-5, they are going to fall short this season of reaching the NFC playoffs thanks to their tough division. Seattle and San Francisco are tough games to close out a year, especially a trip to visit the Seahawks. With Arizona possibly without Larry Fitzgerald (concussion) and with Carson Palmer even more of a statue in the pocket due to an ankle sprain, Seattle could make this game ugly quickly. The Seahawks are hot and have just played what will likely be their last road game until (they hope) the Super Bowl – both of which were at the Giants’ MetLife stadium. Seattle looked dominant last week with their 23-0 shutout of the Giants, and I expect another convincing performance this week. PICK: Seahawks
DETROIT (-9) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Lions took another tough, rough loss last Monday night on six field goals by Baltimore. Now Detroit is on the brink of playoff elimination, but before they even consider a postseason berth they have to right their ship and get a victory. That starts on Sunday, where they get to host the Giants who were just shut out at home by Seattle. Detroit’s defense is not exactly a good comparable to the Seahawks, but their pass rushes are rather similar. I like Detroit at home for a big win and then they can scoreboard watch for either a Bears or Packers loss. PICK: Lions
BALTIMORE (-2) vs. NEW ENGLAND
I would never have considered picking the Ravens in this spot a few weeks ago, but how things change in the NFL. Baltimore has found its swagger again, winning however it takes behind a confident Joe Flacco, who now has his favorite target back in tight end Dennis Pitta. Speaking of tight ends, the loss of Rob Gronkowski has been huge for the Patriots, who could have used him last week against Miami. New England is not the same team without him, and now they have to scramble just to hold on to the second seed in the AFC playoffs. Baltimore knows that two wins gives them the AFC North, and their playoff run had to start with a big win in Detroit last week. If a 61-yard game-winning field goal isn’t a sign of things to come, I don’t know what is. Baltimore has always matched up well with New England, and I like the home team here for a close victory. Ravens 27, Patriots 24. PICK: Ravens
OAKLAND (+10) at SAN DIEGO
San Diego had a huge win last week over Denver, mostly due to their defense holding the Broncos to just 20 points. The Raiders scored 31 points last week and lost in a landslide to Kansas City, 56-31. These two teams squared off earlier this year in Oakland, with the Raiders winning 27-17behind Terrelle Pryor in Week 5. That feels like ages ago, but it does show that the Raiders can play with the Chargers. Both teams can score a lot of points and San Diego has more to play for at 7-7 with playoff hopes, but 10 points is too many. I like Oakland to keep this game to a touchdown or less. PICK: Raiders
GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
Another week for Green Bay, another game without an official Las Vegas line as of Wednesday thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ uncertain status. Green Bay has huge motivation here with the knowledge that two wins in a row will give them the NFC North title (they face the Bears in Chicago next week). Pittsburgh looked good against Cincinnati, but they were motivated by the fact that they could mess up a divisional rival’s playoff chances. There is not the same “bad blood” between Pittsburgh and Green Bay. I am leaning towards a Green Bay win here, and after checking at CBS Sports once again, I have Green Bay giving 2.5 points, which is a little bit of a surprise. I will go ahead and give the points from the home team that has playoff motivation, and could have Aaron Rodgers back on Sunday. PICK: Packers
CHICAGO (+3) at PHILADELPHIA
This might be the hardest pick of all this week. Both teams have playoff hopes and dreams at 8-6, but both teams could be impacted greatly by early results on Sunday. While the Eagles know that Week 17’s trip to Dallas is essentially for the NFC East title, this game could mean the difference between being a third seed or a fourth seed in the playoffs – and avoiding a first round matchup with a team like San Francisco. That said, in the NFC, it sure seems that both Wild Card teams will be formidable (49ers, Saints, Panthers – pick two). Chicago (8-6) likely needs to win but outcomes in Detroit (7-7) and Pittsburgh (hosting Green Bay at 7-6-1) will impact how they feel about their Week 17 against Green Bay. A win by the Bears could eliminate Detroit and make the Packers contest a divisional title showdown as well. So what do I do here for a pick? Chicago’s offense is potent and they have momentum with a win, while the Eagles have a cushion here if they lose – they just have to go beat the Cowobys next week. I could make a strong case for either team, so give me the three points. PICK: Bears
(Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-11.5) vs. ATLANTA
Chris Berman is going to be so annoying this week (as opposed to other weeks? You are right…) with him and ESPN fawning all over the closure of Candlestick Park after the final game this week there for the 49ers. Atlanta is the visiting team for this homecoming, and the lambs will be led to slaughter for the final Monday Night Football contest for 2013. San Francisco needs to continue to win to hold on to their playoff spot as the fifth seed, with the loser of the Carolina-New Orleans contest falling to sixth (and likely Arizona dropping another game back after a loss in Seattle). Colin Kaepernick will keep their four game winning streak moving along with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree all picking apart a porous Atlanta defense that almost lost to Washington last week. I like the 49ers to win going away and celebrate their last home game of the year in big fashion. PICK: 49ers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- MIAMI (-2.5) at BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- JACKSONVILLE (+5.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+200) vs. TENNESSEE
- KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- WASHINGTON (+3) vs. DALLAS
- WASHINGTON “FOR THE WIN” (+135) vs. DALLAS
- CHICAGO “FOR THE WIN” (+145) at PHILADELPHIA
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-11.5) vs. ATLANTA
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- DETROIT (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
- CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- DETROIT (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
- CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- DETROIT (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
- CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- CAROLINA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (10-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- DETROIT (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
- CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- JACKSONVILLE (+11.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- CAROLINA (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- MIAMI (+3.5) at BUFFALO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Miami, Carolina, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Washington, San Francisco
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 6.2-7 (47.0%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 5-1 (83.3%)
Season
- OVERALL: 108-108-8 (50.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 173.15-107-11 (61.8%)
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 44-36-6 (55.0%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.