Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Well, well, well…. How’s this for a hot streak? I went 28-4-4 in my Star Picks in Week 1, the second week in a row where I have topped 70% and the third time in the last four weeks (including over 90% in Week 8 and 87.5% this week). Not too shabby. That record does fly in the face of my overall ability to get all of the games right as I was only 6-7-2 last week, but the lesson learned here is to be selective. I don’t pretend to be better than Las Vegas on all of the games, but I can certainly pick out some choice matchups. Even my Picks of the Week are hot, as I have had four winning weeks in a row there as well. That’s great and all, but none of that helps you for Week 12, now does it? Remember, every week is a new week, and there are plenty of tough calls this time around. So here we go for Week 12:
Byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle
Returning to action after a bye: Dallas, St. Louis
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) NEW ORLEANS (-8.5) at ATLANTA
First of all, I hate this big of a point spread in this game, but I have to go with the better team here. The Saints survived to beat the Falcons in Week 1 by a 23-17 score thanks to a last minute goal line stand, but these two teams are much different now versus Week 1, especially Atlanta. Julio Jones is out for the year and Atlanta is showing its age on offense. Matt Ryan’s confidence is shot, much like the Falcons’ playoff hopes. I like New Orleans to win this game as they have to win the games that they should because the schedule is about to get very difficult with Seattle and Carolina twice. Take New Orleans, but be careful with such a big spread. PICK: Saints
NEW YORK JETS (+4) at BALTIMORE
This game has lots of story angles, with Rex Ryan returning to Baltimore as one of the bigger ones, along with Ed Reed (again) heading back to visit the Ravens. Baltimore is an up and down team this year, and they have been mostly down of late with a tough overtime loss in Chicago last week. New York has been the poster team for up and down performance this season, going a perfect 5-5 on the year but 9-0 in doing the exact opposite of the prior week, as they have alternated wins and losses all season long. So looking at Week 11, the Jets looked terrible at Buffalo, which means – if the pattern holds – the Jets are due for an uptick in play and a probable win. Considering that, Rex Ryan, Ed Reed and the Ravens not playing that well of late – plus a 4-point head start – I will take New York. PICK: Jets
PITTSBURGH (+2.5) at CLEVELAND
The Steelers just beat Detroit at home, but the Lions seemed to implode down the stretch and the Browns have Joe Haden to keep Antonio Brown in check. That trend would normally start to steer me towards picking Cleveland, but Ben Roethlisberger is hot and just threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns, and Emmanuel Sanders says that he will be ready to play on Sunday. Couple that with Jerricho Cotchery (seven touchdowns this year), rookie Markus Wheaton and tight end Heath Miller, and I like the Pittsburgh offense. Cleveland has Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, but I do not think it will be enough as the Steelers still believe that a win here can get them a step closer to the sixth and final AFC playoff spot. PICK: Steelers
DETROIT (-9) vs. TAMPA BAY
I called for Detroit to win last week, and they should have until they imploded in Pittsburgh after a very fast start. Now the Lions host the Buccaneers in the first of two home games in five days with Detroit’s annual Thanksgiving home contest on the horizon. Tampa Bay had a resurgence at tailback thanks to Bobby Rainey’s explosion last week, but Detroit has a much better run defense than Atlanta. Nine points is a big number and the Lions have been making games far too close lately (or blowing them outright) but I like them to get a much needed double-digit victory this week. PICK: Lions
GREEN BAY (-5) vs. MINNESOTA
Green Bay looked terrible last week against the Giants, but this game is at home against a division rival, with the playoffs potentially at stake. How is that possible in Week 11? The Packers are 5-5 and in third place, and a loss here would give them three in the division with a Thanksgiving contest in Detroit looming in less than a week. Minnesota is a mess and cannot figure out who their quarterback is going to be in any given week (it sounds like they are going with Christian Ponder on Sunday) and Adrian Peterson is ailing. Green Bay needs the Pack to Roll, Pack, Roll… and I think that they will by at least a touchdown. PICK: Packers
JACKSONVILLE (+10) at HOUSTON
Hey Houston, you got me last week. Nice job. Eight losses in a row? Benching Case Keenum for Matt Schaub, then declaring Keenum is the starter again? Well done. Jacksonville is playing much better over the past few weeks, and I think that they can cover 10 points against a team that barely remembers what a victory feels like. PICK: Jaguars
KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
I get it – this is a sandwich game between two big Denver contests for Kansas City, but this is still a divisional contest at home for the Chiefs. Kansas City is much better than San Diego, who by the way just lost to a directionless Miami team. I don’t like San Diego on the road at 10AM for the team from sunny southern California. Chiefs by 10 or more. PICK: Chiefs
CAROLINA (-4) at MIAMI
A short week for the Panthers and a road trip? I can see how they aren’t favored by a touchdown or more, but then again, I can’t. Listen, Carolina has won six games in a row, the last two against San Francisco and New England. Do we really think that the Dolphins can hang with the Panthers? This “road” game is not that far of a trip for Carolina, and Miami is far from a hostile place to visit. I like Cam Newton to put up strong numbers again and the Panthers’ defense to make Ryan Tannehill’s day just miserable. Panthers 27, Dolphins 13. PICK: Panthers
CHICAGO (+1.5) at ST. LOUIS
St. Louis is coming off of a bye week, while the Bears just played a game that took over five hours and overtime to complete. So we should like the 4-6 Rams to beat the 6-4 Bears? I am not buying this. Chicago’s defense can hold up well to Kellen Clemens and Zac Stacy, while Josh McCown is not that big of a drop-off from Jay Cutler. I like Chicago to win this game on the road with solid defense and special teams, something that the Rams have been exploiting from other teams. Chicago by a touchdown in a game that they have to win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt. PICK: Bears
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) at ARIZONA
I am actually not surprised that the Colts are getting points here. Arizona is an underrated team, as I mentioned last week with quality losses (at New Orleans and San Francisco, home against Seattle) and solid wins (home against Detroit and Carolina). The Colts are struggling since the loss of Reggie Wayne, and they still have to figure out where all of their former WR1 targets are going to go. Throw in that Trent Richardson has been a massive disappointment so far and you have a recipe for a possible “upset” here, as many would have figured Indianapolis to be better than the Cardinals – but Las Vegas would disagree. I lean towards Las Vegas as well here, but I have to take the better team getting points. I don’t love this game at all because Arizona is going in the right direction and the Colts are struggling, but I think that the game will be close either way. Given that, I will take the team with the better quarterback and kicker, which is Indianapolis – and I definitely appreciate getting two and a half points. PICK: Colts
OAKLAND (EVEN) vs. TENNESSEE
Call me crazy, but I am going with Matt McGloin this week. Why? Oakland will be at home for the only time in about a month of a stretch for the schedule (only home game between Week 10 and 14), and that’s my main reason. Tennessee is coming off of a longer rest (Thursday game in Week 11) but the loss to the Colts certainly stung. Both teams are on the fringe of that last wild card for the AFC at 4-6, so this is essentially an elimination game. I am taking the home team with a one-game win streak and a positive outlook with their new quarterback. PICK: Raiders
DALLAS (+2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are on a four game winning streak, which is remarkable after they started the year at 0-6. Now Dallas visits New Jersey for a late afternoon contest after the bye week for the Cowboys, and they should be well rested and ready for a big NFC East clash. A win here over New York gives Dallas positive momentum before a home game on Thanksgiving against Oakland, and the Cowboys need to get two wins there to move back to first place in the division, which is most likely the only way Dallas gets to the postseason. Eli Manning and the Giants defense has been improving over the past few weeks, but Dallas will put up a great fight. I like the Cowboys on the road here not just to cover but to win outright, dashing the Giant’s slim playoff hopes. PICK: Cowboys
DENVER (-2.5) at NEW ENGLAND
New England heads home after a tough loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football, and they have to entertain Peyton Manning on a short week. That’s not exactly a friendly schedule. Adding to this is the return of Wes Welker to Foxboro, who should be able to go if he can pass his concussion tests. Either way, I like Denver here as the Patriots are an efficient team but the Panthers just showed how to get after them and exploit their weakness – which is the secondary. The corners for the Patriots are all banged up, which gives a huge advantage to Manning, who rarely needs a big advantage to come up with a win. I think Denver blows out New England to virtually lock up their #1 seed in the AFC. PICK: Broncos
(Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5) at WASHINGTON
We are now back to your regularly scheduled mismatches on Monday Night Football. This game will be billed as Colin Kaepernick versus Robert Griffin III, but the reality is that it will be Kaepernick and Frank Gore against a Swiss cheese Washington defense. Griffin III will be under pressure all day from a stout 49ers defense, and he may be without some friendly targets if tight end Jordan Reed is out for this one. We already know that Washington will be forced to use a committee for their second and third receivers with Leonard Hankerson out, they are down to just Josh Morgan, Santana Moss and Aldrick Robinson after Pierre Garcon. Not a strong recipe for success – but it is a good predictor for San Francisco stacking the box and playing the run first. With that in mind, I love the 49ers to win on the road and get a much needed victory and move to 7-4. PICK: 49ers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- GREEN BAY (-5) vs. MINNESOTA
- KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- CAROLINA (-4) at MIAMI
- CHICAGO (+1.5) at ST. LOUIS
- DALLAS (+2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5) at WASHINGTON
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) at ATLANTA (UNDER 59)
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (-5) at WASHINGTON (UNDER 53.5)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- GREEN BAY (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- GREEN BAY (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at WASHINGTON
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at WASHINGTON
- 4TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- CAROLINA (+2) at MIAMI
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at WASHINGTON
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- CAROLINA (+2) at MIAMI
- DALLAS (+8.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at WASHINGTON
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- CAROLINA (+2) at MIAMI
- CHICAGO (+7.5) at ST. LOUIS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at WASHINGTON
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (10-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (+1) vs. MINNESOTA
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
- CAROLINA (+2) at MIAMI
- CHICAGO (+7.5) at ST. LOUIS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Monday) SAN FRANCISCO (+1) at WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Kansas City, Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-7-2 (46.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 28-4-4 (87.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-2-1 (60%)
Season
- OVERALL: 77-78-7 (49.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 136.45-81-10 (62.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 32-28-5 (53.3%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.