This is the 5th of a multi-part series. The other versions will be 12-team (PPR), 12-team (non-PPR), 14-team (non-PPR), 10-team (non-PPR) and Auction (PPR) formats. Jeff Pasquino will assist me in those efforts.
Quick links to the Footballguys Players Championship
Prize Structure, Overview, Register, Full Rules
I have studied, mocked, and drafted several teams in the FFPC format this year, and I have learned a great deal. The Footballguys' Players Championship (FPC) format has some unique scoring rules such as 1.5 points per catch for tight ends, two flex starter spots and also "action scoring" which gives credit for kick return scoring. Based on that information, ADP and VBD data I am able to give some thoughts as to how to approach the overall contest and also build a competitive team.
This article is loosely based upon David Dodds' Perfect Draft articles from previous years, and much can be learned from both David and those articles to account for some of the differences of the FPC from standard and even normal PPR leagues.
Now we all know that there is not one way to have a perfect draft. Based upon your draft slot and how the draft flows, draft plans must be fluid enough to adapt and change to accommodate the newfound valuable players that are falling down the draft board. This is where VBD charts and the Draft Dominator can really help, but for now we will talk about breaking the draft down into a few key "segments" and then addressing valuable players that should be available later in the draft.
This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.
Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:
- Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams. And to make your life easy, here just run your roster through our new Rate My Team application.
- You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.
- You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for bye week coverage and the inevitable injury bug.
- The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.
These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.
Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.
- All Players Have Value
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team. - Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.
If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.
How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. For this article, I will be using the Top 300 list for PPR along with the FPC ADP Data from Footballguys.
Specific recommendations for a Perfect FPC Draft
You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of the 600+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired outcome. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning FPC team.
Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in FPC:
- Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs this early in a draft waste a roster spot that could easily go to another starting player in your lineup.
- Taking a QB before Round 6. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Peyton Manning (QB1) = 9th overall
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 15th overall
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (1 flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 19th overall
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (2 flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 31st overall (FPC Scoring Rules)
Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait as long as possible, possibly the 10th or 11th round, and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.
- NOT taking a TE early. This is, by far, the biggest difference between the FPC and other scoring contests. With 1.5 points per catch, the Top 5-8 tight ends are elevated very high with many of them going in the first 4-6 rounds of the draft. Be prepared to step out there and get one earlier than you might expect - but there are two good benefits to this. First of all you get an elite class tight end, which many other owners are going to have. The additional benefit of an earlier run on tight ends (which happens often in FPC / FFPC drafts) is that other positions slide down the draft board accordingly. There can only be 48 players taken in the first four rounds. If 5-6 are tight ends, that means Top 24 RBs and Top 24 WRs will likely be available in Round 5.
- Drafting a second quarterback too early. Unless you are planning on a quarterback by committee, your backup QB can wait until Rounds 11-20 of your draft. If you have a Top 7-8 quarterback you should be fine with him starting most of the time anyway. Only take two quarterbacks before Round 12 if you are going with a committee approach.
- Drafting a first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs, WRs and TEs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Quite often the defenses predicted to be the elite ones to have for the coming season are not all that for fantasy purposes. Let someone else grab the Seahawks or 49ers too early. Use your last picks to secure a kicker and defense and do not draft more than one.
I have examined a lot of strong rosters from both the Pros vs. Joes contests, previous seasons of the FPC and the FFPC and also from my drafts and mocks this year and I believe the winning teams had this in common:
- Winning teams usually took the best players available in the first round, but not a quarterback. This may very well mean selecting a WR or TE based upon a late draft position. After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs, 2 WRs and a tight end.
- Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.
- The most common strong start had two TEs, two RBs and two WRs after Round 6. It did not matter how the order went so long as two of each spot was rostered. HOWEVER – 2014 seems a little different this year, and a BETTER strategy is most likely to only take one tight end (with 2-3 RBs and 2-3 WRs).
- Winning teams had a deep roster with deep talent pools at two or three of the non-QB spots. Teams can win with deep rosters at RB and TE, WR and TE or RB and WR. This lends itself back to drafting the best players available early in the draft.
- Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.
- Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These home runs by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.
- Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in Week 12 for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc. with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.
- All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR or TE that catches a lot of balls over the Red Zone TD producer. Guys like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs match that pace, you could have an elite producer.
Generally, I would look to have this positional grouping after Round 6: 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE.
After Round 9 I would want to have grabbed my starting QB only if a Top 8 option is still available - otherwise I continue to wait while I add 2-3 more depth players at either RB, TE or WR. Typically a roster would have 0-1 QB, 3-4 RB, 3-4 WR and 2-3 TE.
After Round 12 I would want to be here: 1 QB, 4-5 RB, 4-6 WR and 2-3 TE as I added more depth behind my flex starter candidates at RB and WR and then grabbed my starting quarterback before Round 12. Most likely I would have 1 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR and 2 TE after 12 rounds.
LET'S HAVE THE PERFECT FPC DRAFT
The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.
This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Def and 1 PK. It also assumes this scoring criteria: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per reception (1.5 for TEs), 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, -1 points for interceptions.
In a 12-team draft, there is pressure to grab the quality RBs and WRs before they are gone. In a FPC draft, there is pressure on RBs and WRs plus elite TEs. This point is important, because failure to lock up solid starters at all three spots within the first six 5-7 rounds will likely cost you a chance at competing for the title.
Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 5th round (60 picks). If you are still using this list in the 7th round, you are positioned well to make a strong run in this contest.
THE TOP 50+ PLAYERS
Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Top 300 list for PPR along with the FPC ADP Data to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.
- For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.
- For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.
Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.
Now, using FPC ADP data can be tricky. I needed a way to normalize the current ADP for these leagues against a value for each player. To do that I used the positional breakdown of the Top 72 picks from the ADP data and compared that to the values provided from the Draft Dominator. In addition, I took the ADP and used that information to align the ADP to a given position. For example, the current value in the Draft Dominator for Reggie Bush places him as RB12. From 2014 FPC Drafts I know that RB12 has an ADP of 26, and so on. That is how I got the FPC ADP part of the data for the next step in making the Top 72 list.
Doing this for the Top 72 in the Draft Dominator for an FPC league and using the FPC ADP Data yields these Top 72 players (ranked from 1st to 72nd). Note that I expanded this list on purpose as to show how the values play out after the Top 50, and also provide some insight as to how to plan your first six or seven picks.
FFPC Rank | PPR Rank | Pos | PosRank | Player | Team | Points | VBD | FPC ADP | PPR ADP | Mix | Draft Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | RB | 1 | Jamaal Charles | KC/6 | 314.8 | 175 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2 | 3 | RB | 3 | LeSean McCoy | Phi/7 | 269.1 | 129 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2 |
3 | 2 | RB | 2 | Matt Forte | Chi/9 | 274.5 | 135 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
4 | 6 | RB | 4 | Adrian Peterson | Min/10 | 254 | 114 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
5 | 4 | WR | 1 | Calvin Johnson | Det/9 | 296.4 | 128 | 6 | 5 | 5.5 | 5 |
6 | 7 | TE | 1 | Jimmy Graham | NO/6 | 301.1 | 109 | 4 | 7 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
7 | 9 | RB | 5 | Eddie Lacy | GB/9 | 245.1 | 105 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | 6 |
8 | 5 | WR | 2 | Demaryius Thomas | Den/4 | 285.2 | 117 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
9 | 24 | QB | 1 | Peyton Manning | Den/4 | 383.4 | 69 | 23 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
10 | 8 | WR | 3 | Dez Bryant | Dal/11 | 275.5 | 107 | 9 | 10 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
11 | 10 | WR | 4 | A.J. Green | Cin/4 | 273.4 | 105 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
12 | 21 | RB | 11 | Marshawn Lynch | Sea/4 | 219 | 79 | 22 | 11 | 16.5 | 11 |
13 | 15 | RB | 9 | DeMarco Murray | Dal/11 | 231.1 | 91 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
14 | 13 | WR | 5 | Brandon Marshall | Chi/9 | 265.4 | 97 | 11 | 16 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
15 | 12 | RB | 7 | Montee Ball | Den/4 | 238.2 | 98 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
16 | 16 | WR | 6 | Julio Jones | Atl/9 | 259 | 90 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
17 | 11 | RB | 6 | Giovani Bernard | Cin/4 | 244.4 | 105 | 12 | 21 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
18 | 17 | RB | 10 | LeVeon Bell | Pit/12 | 228.9 | 89 | 18 | 17 | 17.5 | 17 |
19 | 14 | RB | 8 | Arian Foster | Hou/10 | 236.7 | 97 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 18 |
20 | 37 | QB | 2 | Aaron Rodgers | GB/9 | 366.7 | 52 | 36 | 18 | 27 | 18 |
21 | 42 | QB | 3 | Drew Brees | NO/6 | 360.9 | 47 | 39 | 19 | 29 | 19 |
22 | 19 | WR | 8 | Jordy Nelson | GB/9 | 252.6 | 84 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
23 | 41 | TE | 2 | Rob Gronkowski | NE/10 | 239.6 | 47 | 15 | 28 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
24 | 18 | WR | 7 | Antonio Brown | Pit/12 | 256.6 | 88 | 19 | 25 | 22 | 22 |
25 | 31 | RB | 16 | Doug Martin | TB/7 | 194.9 | 55 | 33 | 23 | 28 | 23 |
26 | 20 | WR | 9 | Alshon Jeffery | Chi/9 | 248.3 | 80 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
27 | 49 | RB | 24 | Alfred Morris | Was/10 | 172.8 | 33 | 59 | 26 | 42.5 | 26 |
28 | 38 | RB | 19 | Zac Stacy | StL/4 | 190.5 | 51 | 42 | 27 | 34.5 | 27 |
29 | 25 | WR | 10 | Randall Cobb | GB/9 | 236.4 | 68 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 27 |
30 | 23 | RB | 13 | Andre Ellington | Ari/4 | 212.7 | 73 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 29 |
31 | 22 | RB | 12 | Reggie Bush | Det/9 | 216 | 76 | 26 | 32 | 29 | 29 |
32 | 45 | TE | 4 | Julius Thomas | Den/4 | 236.6 | 44 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
33 | 28 | RB | 15 | C.J. Spiller | Buf/9 | 198.5 | 59 | 31 | 33 | 32 | 32 |
34 | 26 | WR | 11 | Andre Johnson | Hou/10 | 232 | 63 | 29 | 37 | 33 | 33 |
35 | 29 | WR | 12 | Vincent Jackson | TB/7 | 224.4 | 56 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
36 | 27 | RB | 14 | Toby Gerhart | Jac/11 | 199.1 | 59 | 28 | 42 | 35 | 35 |
37 | 32 | WR | 14 | Keenan Allen | SD/10 | 223.2 | 55 | 37 | 35 | 36 | 35 |
38 | 30 | WR | 13 | Pierre Garcon | Was/10 | 224.1 | 56 | 34 | 38 | 36 | 36 |
39 | 43 | WR | 17 | Larry Fitzgerald | Ari/4 | 213.3 | 45 | 43 | 36 | 39.5 | 36 |
40 | 44 | TE | 3 | Jordan Cameron | Cle/4 | 236.7 | 45 | 21 | 55 | 38 | 38 |
41 | 65 | QB | 5 | Matthew Stafford | Det/9 | 335.1 | 21 | 75 | 39 | 57 | 39 |
42 | 36 | WR | 16 | Victor Cruz | NYG/8 | 221.4 | 53 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
43 | 40 | RB | 21 | Ryan Mathews | SD/10 | 189.2 | 49 | 49 | 41 | 45 | 41 |
44 | 35 | WR | 15 | Roddy White | Atl/9 | 222 | 53 | 38 | 44 | 41 | 41 |
45 | 52 | QB | 4 | Andrew Luck | Ind/10 | 345.5 | 31 | 73 | 43 | 58 | 43 |
46 | 39 | RB | 20 | Rashad Jennings | NYG/8 | 189.5 | 50 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 45 |
47 | 57 | WR | 24 | Michael Crabtree | SF/8 | 196 | 27 | 57 | 45 | 51 | 45 |
48 | 62 | WR | 26 | Wes Welker | Den/4 | 191.1 | 23 | 64 | 47 | 55.5 | 47 |
49 | 51 | WR | 20 | Cordarrelle Patterson | Min/10 | 200.2 | 32 | 47 | 49 | 48 | 48 |
50 | 64 | RB | 30 | Frank Gore | SF/8 | 161.3 | 21 | 74 | 48 | 61 | 48 |
51 | 34 | RB | 18 | Shane Vereen | NE/10 | 193.8 | 54 | 41 | 57 | 49 | 49 |
52 | 50 | WR | 19 | Percy Harvin | Sea/4 | 201.3 | 33 | 46 | 52 | 49 | 49 |
53 | 33 | RB | 17 | Joique Bell | Det/9 | 194.2 | 54 | 35 | 64 | 49.5 | 49.5 |
54 | 138 | TE | 10 | Vernon Davis | SF/8 | 171.2 | -21 | 67 | 50 | 58.5 | 50 |
55 | 47 | WR | 18 | Michael Floyd | Ari/4 | 203.8 | 35 | 45 | 56 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
56 | 55 | WR | 22 | DeSean Jackson | Was/10 | 197.6 | 29 | 53 | 51 | 52 | 51 |
57 | 58 | RB | 26 | Bishop Sankey | Ten/9 | 165.9 | 26 | 63 | 53 | 58 | 53 |
58 | 48 | RB | 23 | Ray Rice | Bal/11 | 172.9 | 33 | 56 | 54 | 55 | 54 |
59 | 46 | RB | 22 | Chris Johnson | NYJ/11 | 180.1 | 40 | 54 | 58 | 56 | 56 |
60 | 68 | TE | 5 | Jason Witten | Dal/11 | 210.5 | 18 | 48 | 67 | 57.5 | 57.5 |
61 | 59 | RB | 27 | Trent Richardson | Ind/10 | 164.7 | 25 | 65 | 59 | 62 | 59 |
62 | 63 | RB | 29 | Ben Tate | Cle/4 | 161.6 | 22 | 71 | 60 | 65.5 | 60 |
63 | 77 | QB | 6 | Nick Foles | Phi/7 | 326.9 | 13 | 92 | 61 | 76.5 | 61 |
64 | 80 | QB | 7 | Tom Brady | NE/10 | 323.5 | 9 | 93 | 62 | 77.5 | 62 |
65 | 71 | WR | 29 | T.Y. Hilton | Ind/10 | 184.9 | 16 | 70 | 63 | 66.5 | 63 |
66 | 56 | WR | 23 | Mike Wallace | Mia/5 | 197.1 | 29 | 55 | 74 | 64.5 | 64.5 |
67 | 79 | WR | 32 | Torrey Smith | Bal/11 | 179.2 | 11 | 77 | 65 | 71 | 65 |
68 | 53 | WR | 21 | Kendall Wright | Ten/9 | 199 | 30 | 50 | 80 | 65 | 65 |
69 | 69 | TE | 6 | Greg Olsen | Car/12 | 209.5 | 17 | 51 | 81 | 66 | 66 |
70 | 61 | WR | 25 | Julian Edelman | NE/10 | 191.7 | 23 | 61 | 71 | 66 | 66 |
71 | 81 | QB | 8 | Robert Griffin III | Was/10 | 323.4 | 9 | 100 | 68 | 84 | 68 |
72 | 83 | WR | 33 | Jeremy Maclin | Phi/7 | 175.3 | 7 | 80 | 70 | 75 | 70 |
Table 1 – The Top 72 Value List for an FPC Draft
Note: There are eight quarterbacks that appear on this list, but I am going to tell you a simple truth. Your team will end up a lot better if you wait until after this list is exhausted before choosing a quarterback. The reason for this is because there is exceptional value at quarterback once everyone in the league drafts one. In years where there were just a handful of difference makers, you could make an argument that you need an elite one. This year the QB pool is deeper than I have ever witnessed. Trust me here. Don't draft an early quarterback.
BUILDING YOUR "CORE" - YOUR FIRST 5 PICKS
Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted - but use some common sense while you do this. You must take at least one RB, one WR and one TE within the first six rounds of the draft (no exceptions). Additionally limit yourself to at most one QB or two TEs from this list. If you draft a QB because he represents value, then you must quickly address the other positions because you must catch up your depth at those key spots.
I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after the Top 50 players are gone. The list above only has them there for your reference - focus first on accumulating talent.
AFTER THE TOP 50 - ASSESSMENT PHASE
The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your analysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:
- How many backs did you secure? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective. You will need a minimum of two to start, so if you have only two consider adding depth soon.
- How many wide receivers did you secure? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective. You will need a minimum of two to start, so if you have only two consider adding depth soon.
- Did you draft a QB yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until at least Round 12 in the draft. If you have not drafted quarterback yet, do not panic. Good ones will exist throughout the draft, and the best strategy in 2014 appears to be to wait at quarterback and snag one of the last starters (QB10 – QB12) off of the draft board.
- Do you have two TEs yet? If not, consider looking hard at getting another one before the Top 15-16 are gone. Elite TEs are worth a good deal in 1.5 PPR leagues, plus with the dual flex rule a stud TE can serve as a nice flex starter. Grab one if there is good talent left.
Assess your bye week situation. If three or more of your first five players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week so that I can be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against Oakland, Jacksonville, Dallas, Washington, Atlanta, and Minnesota all yield good results during these weeks.
As an example, let's say you landed this team after six rounds (from the 5th position):
- 5. WR Calvin Johnson, DET/9 (FPC ADP = 6)
- 20. RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA/4 (ADP = 22)
- 29. RB Doug Martin, TB/7 (ADP = 33)
- 44. RB Alfred Morris, WAS/10 (ADP = 59)
- 53. WR Michael Crabtree, SF/8 (ADP = 57)
This is an excellent start. Three solid running backs and two Top 20 wide receivers, right out of the gate – and not a single bye week issue to boot. The only concerns at this point are wide receiver depth, tight end (none yet) and no quarterback yet.
So in this example, your next steps would be:
- Grab a tight end as soon as possible – most likely Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph in Round 6.
- Take a second tight end if a Top 12 tight end is still there in the next 2-3 rounds.
- Round out your depth at wide receiver, preferably without a Week 8 or Week 9 bye.
Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 0 QBs, 3 RBs, 3-4 WRs and 1-2 TEs after 9 rounds.
Here is another example (drafting from the 10th position):
- 10. WR A.J. Green, CIN/4 (ADP = 10)
- 15. RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA/4 (ADP = 22)
- 34. RB Alfred Morris, WAS/10 (ADP = 39)
- 39. RB Zac Stacy, STL/4 (ADP = 42)
- 58. WR Wes Welker, DEN/4 (ADP = 64)
Assessing where you are:
- You have good roster balance –three starting RBs and two solid WRs.
- You have extreme Bye Week issues in Week 4, so it might be best to just punt on Week 4 and not be concerned about it. Build the best team you can and worry about fielding a viable lineup for Week 4 with your depth.
- This team also lacks a QB and a TE, with TE being the biggest immediate concern.
So in this example your next steps would be:
- Grab a tight end as soon as possible – most likely Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph in Round 6.
- Get another wide receiver or two for depth and roster flexibility.
- Take a second tight end if a Top 12 tight end is still there in the next 2-3 rounds.
- Round out your depth at RB, preferably without a Week 4 or Week 10 bye. Depth will dry up soon.
Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 0 QBs, 3-4 RBs, 3-4 WRs and 1-2 TEs after 9 rounds.
See the theme here? That's right.
The Perfect FPC Draft should have 0 QB, 3-4 RBs, 3-4 WRs and 1-2 TEs after 9 rounds.
MOVING TO FILL POSITIONAL NEEDS
QUARTERBACKS
If you followed this plan up to here, you should not have selected a quarterback within the Top 50 picks.
Two years ago we saw the rise of the rookie quarterback. Guys like Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson all were major contributors to your fantasy rosters at the quarterback position. Other young players like Colin Kaepernick emerged to lead the 49ers. This past year, we saw Nick Foles ascend in Chip Kelly's uptempo offense. This wouldn't be so note-worthy if during this quarterback rebirth of sorts, the old guys left the game (which we know did not happen). The normal familiar veterans (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers) are all hanging around and playing very good football too.
The bottom line is that there have never been more quality quarterbacks playing each week than what is available this season. So for every drafter that pulls the trigger to get a Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers early, some drafter (read YOU if you are wise) will grab someone like Tony Romo or Russell Wilson as much as six to seven rounds later. And I am telling you with conviction, there is not enough difference to make getting the "elite" guys even worthy of a draft strategy this season.
Waiting is for Winners...draft the 12th quarterback...or later.
From my own projections, here are my top fantasy quarterbacks for this year:
- Peyton Manning, Den/4 (403 Fantasy Points)
- Drew Brees, NO/6 (386 Fantasy Points)
- Aaron Rodgers, GB/9 (384 Fantasy Points)
- Andrew Luck, Ind/10 (366 Fantasy Points)
- Matthew Stafford, Det/9 (357 Fantasy Points)
- Nick Foles, Phi/7 (355 Fantasy Points)
- Cam Newton, Car/12 (349 Fantasy Points)
- Matt Ryan, Atl/9 (341 Fantasy Points)
- Robert Griffin III, Was/10 (341 Fantasy Points)
- Colin Kaepernick, SF/8 (340 Fantasy Points)
- Tom Brady, NE/10 (331 Fantasy Points)
- Russell Wilson, Sea/4 (328 Fantasy Points)
- Tony Romo, Dal/11 (323 Fantasy Points)
- Philip Rivers, SD/10 (318 Fantasy Points)
- Jay Cutler, Chi/9 (316 Fantasy Points)
- Andy Dalton, Cin/4 (310 Fantasy Points)
- Ben Roethlisberger, Pit/12 (305 Fantasy Points)
- Ryan Tannehill, Mia/5 (290 Fantasy Points)
- Alex Smith, KC/6 (290 Fantasy Points)
- Joe Flacco, Bal/11 (286 Fantasy Points)
- Eli Manning, NYG/8 (283 Fantasy Points)
Now consider the people that took any of the top 10 names on this list. Are they looking to add a quality backup? Would you if you drafted Nick Foles, Cam Newton, or Matt Ryan? This dynamic defines the solution. Once 11 people have drafted their quarterback, you can wait another 20+ picks and get the next guy. Who is it? It depends on your draft, but it's usually Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, or Russell Wilson. And all of these guys would have that "quality starter tag" in any other year.
Here's how best to execute this plan:
- Let 11 QBs go off the board. That is trigger #1
- Once Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, or Russell Wilson get selected (trigger #2), make sure you select whoever remains when it's your turn to draft next.
- Russell would be my preferred choice, but all three of these guys will perform fine. If you land either Jay Cutleror Tony Romo (or to a lesser extent Ryan Tannehill), look to add Eli Manning in the 13th or 14th round and play matchups. For further QB matchup analysis see Chase Stuart's QBBC article.
But David...what if someone snipes Cutler, Romo and Wilson from me? This is the beauty of waiting. You aren't penalized by this at all as their are still plenty of solid quarterback options that could easily threaten the top 12
Besides drafting the 12-13th Quarterback, here are the guys that I think represent great value this year:
- Alex Smith, KC/6 (Value = 127, ADP = 158) in the 12th round or later
- Ryan Tannehill, Mia/5 (Value = 133, ADP = 154) in the 13th round or later
- Joe Flacco, Bal/11 (Value = 141, ADP = 161) in the 13th round or later
- Eli Manning, NYG/8 (Value = 143, ADP = 155) in the 13th round or later
- Geno Smith, NYJ/11 (Value = 162, ADP = 221) in the 16th round or later
- Jake Locker, Ten/9 (Value = 172, ADP = 199) in the 16th round or later
RUNNING BACKS
In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. More and more teams are using a committee approach to the running back position...pulling the starter both on obvious passing downs and sometimes in goal line situations. It has made the workhorse backs (that do all three roles) even more valuable, but also created a bigger pool of next tier backs that don't do it all. If you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you likely have a decent stable of backs on your roster to build the rest of your team around.
But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.
Here are the other RBs that I would target for value (outside of the top 50 picks):
- Lamar Miller, Mia/5 (Value = 61, ADP = 80) in the 7th round or later
- Danny Woodhead, SD/10 (Value = 76, ADP = 91) in the 8th round or later
- DeAngelo Williams, Car/12 (Value = 89, ADP = 114) in the 9th round or later
- Mark Ingram, NO/6 (Value = 116, ADP = 140) in the 11th round or later
Additionally I love these late round fliers that could have significant roles should the player in front of them on the depth charts get hurt or falter. Most can be picked at or near their ADP:
- Knile Davis, KC/6 (ADP = 162) backs up super back Jamaal Charles in the 14th round or later.
- Lance Dunbar, Dal/11 (ADP = 173) backs up the chronically hurt DeMarco Murray in the 15th round or later.
- Chris Polk, Phi/7 (ADP = undrafted) backs up super back LeSean McCoy in the 18th round or later.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft. Here are some guys that should represent excellent value this year (outside of the top 50):
- Brian Hartline, Mia/5 (Value = 105, ADP = 153) in the 12th round or later.
- Markus Wheaton, Pit/12 (Value = 123, ADP = 152) in the 13th round or later.
- Doug Baldwin, Sea/4 (Value = 129, ADP = 182) in the 14th round or later.
- Rod Streater, Oak/5 (Value = 132, ADP = 187) in the 15th round or later.
- Malcom Floyd, SD/10 (Value = 158, ADP = 251) in the 17th round or later.
Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap, grab approximately three receivers by Round 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.
TIGHT ENDS
Because so many more teams are utilizing the TE position, there are almost always bargains at this position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft (in leagues that start just 1 TE).
This presents a dilemma of sorts in drafts. One can grab an elite (top 5 or 6) Tight End or wait until the later rounds and grab some upside guys that could crack the top 10 at the position.
I generally prefer a decent TE, but I think the wise drafting approach is to not reach for one if they go sooner than normal.
Here are the two TE that I am targeting outside of the top 50 players:
- Jordan Reed, Was/10 (Value = 63, ADP = 76) in the 5th round or later.
- Kyle Rudolph, Min/10 (Value = 74, ADP = 92) in the 6th round or later.
Keep in mind that tight ends go early. Based on FPC ADP Data, eight tight ends are gone after Round 5, two more in Round 6 and three more in Round 7 - which means 13 tight ends are usually gone after 84 selections, and most teams have one by this point of the draft.
If I fail to land Reed or Rudolph, I generally try and get one from the next tier (Zach Ertz, Martellus Bennett, or Charles Clay). These guys generally can be picked in the sixth or seventh rounds and all are solid options on their teams. Be careful here, though - in FPC drafts, tight ends go early. If you are waiting for your TE1 for Ertz, Bennett or Clay, do not wait too long. You need a starting tight end on your roster before Round 7 is over. Flier Travis Kelce, KC/6 has been moving up draft boards with a strong preseason, but you can generally still get him after the 12th round.
PLACE KICKERS
In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK in the last two rounds of your draft. In leagues that draft this position real late (most leagues), look towards the second to last round to grab the one kicker you will roster. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait until their last pick to take their kickers and end up missing the good kickers by a few picks. Most likely that sleeper WR you want in the second to last round will still be there for you in the last round. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.
Instead of targeting any particular kicker this year, I just like to keep these 12 names handy and start crossing them off the list. When 6-8 are gone, jump in and get the top rated guy left. Here are my top 12 kickers:
Gostkowski (NE/10), Hauschka (Sea/4), Prater (Den/4), Tucker (Bal/11), Dawson (SF/8), Bailey (Dal/11), Crosby (GB/9), Bryant (Atl/9), Novak (SD/10), Walsh (Min/10), Vinatieri (Ind/10), Gould (Chi/9)
DEFENSES
Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until 5-6 defenses get selected and then take the Bengals defense with confidence.
Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have at most one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Jacksonville, Buffalo, NY Jets, Cleveland and Oakland you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.
Our own Chase Stuart suggests grabbing both the Tennessee Titans (ADP = undrafted) and the Indianapolis Colts (ADP = undrafted) and play matchups each week. It's a compelling strategy if you can afford using up two roster spots.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
1. Draft for value until the top 50 players is exhausted. These are your "core" and will define how you approach the rest of the draft.
2. Look to select the 12-13th quarterback off the board 20 picks after the 11th QB is taken. Add Eli Manning as key depth to allow maximum flexibility in playing great matchups. Make sure to laugh every time someone else takes an early QB too.
3. Target TE Jordan Reed in the sixth round, but if you miss on him attempt to grab Kyle Rudolph in the seventh. If both of those plans fail, grab either Zach Ertz, Martellus Bennett or Charles Clay before the end of Round 9.
4. Add value at RB, WR and TE in the middle rounds to protect bye weeks, add critical depth, and give yourself a chance to trade off talent to bolster your squad as the season progresses.
5. Use the final rounds to add your kicker, a defense and to go after young players in a "Swing-For-The-Fence" mentality. These are players who are flying way below the radar, but could be huge fantasy producers should they be given a larger role in their offenses. All should be able to be drafted after Round 14. At quarterback I like Geno Smith and Jake Locker. At running back I like Knile Davis, Lance Dunbar, Jordan Todman, and Chris Polk. At wide receiver I like Doug Baldwin, Jordan Matthews, Rod Streater, Paul Richardson, and Cody Latimer . At tight end I like Travis Kelce as younger players that could dominate if given the chance.
6. The FPC does not have exotic scoring that elevates defenses, so it is best to wait until the last few rounds to grab your defense. After 5-6 defenses are off the board, you should be able to grab the Cincinnati Bengals.
7. Wait until the second to last round and grab your kicker.
Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.
Here is a sample team drafted from the second position.
- Rd 1 - Pick 2 – RB LeSean McCoy, PHI/7 (ADP = 3)
- Rd 2 - Pick 23 – WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI/9 (ADP = 24)
- Rd 3 - Pick 26 – RB Doug Martin, TB/7 (ADP = 33)
- Rd 4 - Pick 47 – RB Alfred Morris, WAS/10 (ADP = 59)
- Rd 5 - Pick 50 – WR Michael Crabtree, SF/8 (ADP = 57)
- Rd 6 - Pick 71 – TE Martellus Bennett, CHI/9 (ADP = 78)
- Rd 7 - Pick 74 – RB Lamar Miller, MIA/5 (ADP = 80)
- Rd 8 - Pick 95 – TE Ladarius Green, SD/10 (ADP = 98)
- Rd 9 - Pick 98 – WR Rueben Randle, NYG/8 (ADP = 106)
Roster breakdown = 4 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE.
- Rd 10 - Pick 109 – QB #12 (likely Russell, Romo, or Cutler)
- Rd 11 - Pick 122 – TE Travis Kelce, KC/10 (ADP = 138)
- Rd 12 - Pick 133 – RB Mark Ingram, NO/6 (ADP = 140)
- Rd 13 - Pick 146 – WR Brian Hartline, MIA/5 (ADP = 153)
- Rd 14 - Pick 157 – RB Knile Davis, KC/6 (ADP = 162)
Roster breakdown = 1 QB, 6 RB, 4 WR, 3 TE.
- Rd 15 - Pick 170 – WR Doug Baldwin, Sea/4 (ADP = 182)
- Rd 16 - Pick 181 – QB Eli Manning, NYG/8 (ADP = 186)
- Rd 17 - Pick 194 – WR Malcom Floyd, SD/10 (ADP = 251)
- Rd 18 - Pick 205 – Best Defense
- Rd 19 - Pick 218 – Best Kicker
- Rd 20 - Pick 229 – RB Chris Polk, PHI/7 (ADP > 240)
Roster breakdown = 2 QB, 7 RB, 6 WR, 3 TE, 1K, 1D.