This is the 5th of a multi-part series. The other versions will be 12-team (PPR), 12-team (non-PPR), 14-team (non-PPR), 10-team (non-PPR) and Auction (PPR) formats. Jeff Pasquino will assist me in those efforts.
Quick links to the Footballguys Players Championship
Prize Structure, Overview, Register, Full Rules
I have studied, mocked, and drafted several teams in the FFPC format this year, and I have learned a great deal. The Footballguys' Players Championship (FPC) format has some unique scoring rules such as 1.5 points per catch for tight ends, two flex starter spots and also "action scoring" which gives credit for kick return scoring. Based on that information, ADP and VBD data I am able to give some thoughts as to how to approach the overall contest and also build a competitive team.
This article is loosely based upon David Dodds' Perfect Draft articles from previous years, and much can be learned from both David and those articles to account for some of the differences of the FPC from standard and even normal PPR leagues.
Now we all know that there is not one way to have a perfect draft. Based upon your draft slot and how the draft flows, draft plans must be fluid enough to adapt and change to accommodate the newfound valuable players that are falling down the draft board. This is where VBD charts and the Draft Dominator can really help, but for now we will talk about breaking the draft down into a few key "segments" and then addressing valuable players that should be available later in the draft.
This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.
Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:
- Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams. And to make your life easy, here just run your roster through our new Rate My Team application.
- You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.
- You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for bye week coverage and the inevitable injury bug.
- The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.
These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.
Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.
- All Players Have Value
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team. - Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.
If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.
How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. For this article, I will be using the Top 300 list for PPR along with the FFPC ADP Data from RealTime Fantasy Sports.
Specific recommendations for a Perfect FPC Draft
You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of the 600+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired outcome. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning FPC team.
Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in FPC:
- Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs this early in a draft waste a roster spot that could easily go to another starting player in your lineup.
- Taking a QB before Round 6. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Aaron Rodgers (QB1) = 16th overall
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 23rd overall
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (1 flex, PPR) - Rodgers =26th overall
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (2 flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 31st overall (FPC Scoring Rules)
Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 6th or 7th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.
- NOT taking a TE early. This is, by far, the biggest difference between the FPC and other scoring contests. With 1.5 points per catch, the Top 5-8 tight ends are elevated very high with many of them going in the first 4-6 rounds of the draft. Be prepared to step out there and get one earlier than you might expect - but there are two good benefits to this. First of all you get an elite class tight end, which many other owners are going to have. The additional benefit of an earlier run on tight ends (which happens often in FPC / FFPC drafts) is that other positions slide down the draft board accordingly. There can only be 48 players taken in the first four rounds. If 5-6 are tight ends, that means Top 24 RBs and Top 24 WRs will likely be available in Round 5.
- Drafting a second quarterback too early. Unless you are planning on a quarterback by committee, your backup QB can wait until Rounds 10-16 of your draft. If you have a Top 7-8 quarterback you should be fine with him starting most of the time anyway. Only take two quarterbacks before Round 10 if you are going with a committee approach.
- Drafting a first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs, WRs and TEs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Quite often the defenses predicted to be the elite ones to have for the coming season are not all that for fantasy purposes. Let someone else grab the Ravens, Eagles or 49ers too early. Use your last picks to secure a kicker and defense and do not draft more than one.
I have examined a lot of strong rosters from both the Pros vs. Joes, previous seasons of the FFPC and also from my drafts and mocks this year and I believe the winning teams had this in common:
- Winning teams usually took the best players available in the first round, but not a quarterback. This may very well mean selecting a WR or TE based upon a late draft position. After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs, 2 WRs and a tight end.
- Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.
- The most common strong start had two TEs, two RBs and two WRs after Round 6. It did not matter how the order went so long as two of each spot was rostered. HOWEVER – 2013 seems a little different this year, and a BETTER strategy is most likely to only take one tight end (with 2-3 RBs and 2-3 WRs).
- Winning teams had a deep roster with deep talent pools at two or three of the non-QB spots. Teams can win with deep rosters at RB and TE, WR and TE or RB and WR. This lends itself back to drafting the best players available early in the draft.
- Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.
- Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These home runs by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.
- Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in week for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc. with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.
- All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR or TE that catches a lot of balls over the Red Zone TD producer. Guys like Brandon Pettigrew and Wes Welker excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs match that pace, you could have an elite producer.
Generally, I would look to have this positional grouping after Round 6: 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE.
After Round 9 I would want to have grabbed my starting QB and two more depth players at either RB or WR. Typically a roster would have 1 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR and 2 TE.
After Round 12 I would want to be here: 1-2 QB, 3-4 RB, 4-5 WR and 2-3 TE as I added more depth behind my flex starter candidates at RB and WR and then grabbed my QB2 after Round 12 (unless I planned for a committee, but usually I am not). Most likely I would have 1 QB, 3 RB, 5 WR and 2 TE after 12 rounds.
LET'S HAVE THE PERFECT FPC DRAFT
The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.
This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Def and 1 PK. It also assumes this scoring criteria: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per reception (1.5 for TEs), 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, -1 points for interceptions.
In a 12-team draft, there is pressure to grab the quality RBs and WRs before they are gone. In a FPC draft, there is pressure on RBs and WRs plus elite TEs. This point is important, because failure to lock up solid starters at all three spots within the first six 5-7 rounds will likely cost you a chance at competing for the title.
Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 5th round (60 picks). If you are still using this list in the 7th round, you are positioned well to make a strong run in this contest.
THE TOP 50+ PLAYERS
Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Top 300 list for PPR along with the FFPC ADP Data to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.
- For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.
- For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.
Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.
Normally, I would use the Pros vs. Joes ADP data from July, but this year is difficult with so many injuries across all positions (Jeremy Maclin, LeVeon Bell) but especially at tight end (Dennis Pitta, Dustin Keller), I needed a way to normalize the current ADP for these leagues against a value for each player. To do that I used the positional breakdown of the Top 72 picks from the ADP data, removed three players that no longer will be drafted that high or even at all (Dennis Pitta, Aaron Hernandez and LeVeon Bell) and compared that to the values provided from the Draft Dominator. In addition, I took the ADP and used that information to align the ADP to a given position. For example, the current value in the Draft Dominator for Darren Sproles places him as RB16. From 2012 FPC Drafts I know that RB16 has an ADP of 24, and so on. That is how I got the FPC ADP part of the data for the next step in making the Top 72 list.
Doing this for the Top 75 in the Draft Dominator for an FPC league and using the FPC ADP Data yields these Top 72 players (ranked from 1st to 72nd). Note that I expanded this list on purpose as to show how the values play out after the Top 50, and also provide some insight as to how to plan your first six or seven picks.
Rank |
Player |
Team |
FPC |
DD |
Mix |
Draft Score |
1 |
MIN/5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
KC/10 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
TB/5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
BUF/12 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
5 |
DET/9 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
|
6 |
NO/7 |
6 |
19 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
|
7 |
BAL/8 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
|
8 |
PHI/12 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
|
9 |
CLE/10 |
9 |
8 |
8.5 |
8 |
|
10 |
CHI/8 |
10 |
9 |
9.5 |
9 |
|
11 |
CIN/12 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
12 |
HOU/8 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
|
13 |
SEA/12 |
13 |
12 |
12.5 |
12 |
|
14 |
CHI/8 |
14 |
13 |
13.5 |
13 |
|
15 |
DEN/9 |
15 |
16 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
|
16 |
DET/9 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
|
17 |
TEN/8 |
17 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
|
18 |
ATL/6 |
18 |
17 |
17.5 |
17 |
|
19 |
WAS/5 |
19 |
20 |
19.5 |
19.5 |
|
20 |
DAL/11 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
|
21 |
ATL/6 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
|
22 |
JAX/9 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
|
23 |
HOU/8 |
23 |
24 |
23.5 |
23.5 |
|
24 |
NO/7 |
24 |
23 |
23.5 |
23 |
|
25 |
DAL/11 |
25 |
27 |
26 |
26 |
|
26 |
DAL/11 |
26 |
33 |
29.5 |
29.5 |
|
27 |
ATL/6 |
27 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
|
28 |
OAK/7 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
|
29 |
ATL/6 |
29 |
47 |
38 |
38 |
|
30 |
ARI/9 |
30 |
26 |
28 |
26 |
|
31 |
NYG/9 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
29 |
|
32 |
SF/9 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
|
33 |
MIA/6 |
33 |
34 |
33.5 |
33.5 |
|
34 |
NYG/9 |
34 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
|
35 |
GB/4 |
35 |
37 |
36 |
36 |
|
36 |
TB/5 |
36 |
30 |
33 |
30 |
|
37 |
NO/7 |
37 |
43 |
40 |
40 |
|
38 |
NE/10 |
38 |
39 |
38.5 |
38.5 |
|
39 |
GB/4 |
39 |
31 |
35 |
31 |
|
40 |
NE/10 |
40 |
35 |
37.5 |
35 |
|
41 |
Rob Gronkowski |
NE/10 |
41 |
51 |
46 |
46 |
42 |
KC/10 |
42 |
36 |
39 |
36 |
|
43 |
PIT/5 |
43 |
40 |
41.5 |
40 |
|
44 |
Reggie Wayne |
IND/8 |
44 |
41 |
42.5 |
41 |
45 |
SF/9 |
45 |
76 |
60.5 |
60.5 |
|
46 |
NO/7 |
46 |
42 |
44 |
42 |
|
47 |
DEN/9 |
47 |
49 |
48 |
48 |
|
48 |
SD/8 |
48 |
44 |
46 |
44 |
|
49 |
CAR/4 |
49 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
|
50 |
GB/4 |
50 |
50 |
50 |
50 |
|
51 |
CAR/4 |
51 |
52 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
|
52 |
NE/10 |
52 |
46 |
49 |
46 |
|
53 |
BAL/8 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
|
54 |
Eddie Lacy |
GB/4 |
54 |
55 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
55 |
DEN/9 |
55 |
54 |
54.5 |
54 |
|
56 |
Daryl Richardson |
STL/11 |
56 |
58 |
57 |
57 |
57 |
DEN/9 |
57 |
48 |
52.5 |
48 |
|
58 |
ARI/9 |
58 |
63 |
60.5 |
60.5 |
|
59 |
WAS/5 |
59 |
56 |
57.5 |
56 |
|
60 |
JAX/9 |
60 |
57 |
58.5 |
57 |
|
61 |
PHI/12 |
61 |
61 |
61 |
61 |
|
62 |
GB/4 |
62 |
77 |
69.5 |
69.5 |
|
63 |
NYJ/10 |
63 |
68 |
65.5 |
65.5 |
|
64 |
Mike Wallace |
MIA/6 |
64 |
62 |
63 |
62 |
65 |
CAR/4 |
65 |
71 |
68 |
68 |
|
66 |
DEN/9 |
66 |
73 |
69.5 |
69.5 |
|
67 |
SF/9 |
67 |
59 |
63 |
59 |
|
68 |
ATL/6 |
68 |
60 |
64 |
60 |
|
69 |
Greg Olsen |
CAR/4 |
69 |
95 |
82 |
82 |
70 |
Hakeem Nicks |
NYG/9 |
70 |
64 |
67 |
64 |
71 |
SD/8 |
71 |
65 |
68 |
65 |
|
72 |
Steve Johnson |
BUF/12 |
72 |
66 |
69 |
66 |
Table 1 – The Top 72 Value List for an FPC Draft
Note: There are six quarterbacks that appear on this list, but I am going to tell you a simple truth. Your team will end up a lot better if you wait until after this list is exhausted before choosing a quarterback. The reason for this is because there is exceptional value at quarterback once everyone in the league drafts one. In years where there were just a handful of difference makers, you could make an argument that you need an elite one. This year the QB pool is deeper than I have ever witnessed. Trust me here. Don't draft an early quarterback.
BUILDING YOUR "CORE" - YOUR FIRST 5 PICKS
Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted - but use some common sense while you do this. You must take at least one RB, one WR and one TE within the first six rounds of the draft (no exceptions). Additionally limit yourself to at most one QB or two TEs from this list. If you draft a QB because he represents value, then you must quickly address the other positions because you must catch up your depth at those key spots.
I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after the Top 50 players are gone. The list above only has them there for your reference - focus first on accumulating talent.
AFTER THE TOP 50 - ASSESSMENT PHASE
The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your analysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:
- How many backs did you secure? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective. You will need a minimum of two to start, so if you have only two consider adding depth soon.
- How many wide receivers did you secure? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective. You will need a minimum of two to start, so if you have only two consider adding depth soon.
- Did you draft a QB yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until at least Round 12 in the draft. If you have not drafted quarterback yet, do not panic. Good ones will exist throughout the draft, and the best strategy in 2013 appears to be to wait at quarterback and snag one of the last starters (QB10 – QB12) off of the draft board.
- Do you have two TEs yet? If not, consider looking hard at getting another one before the Top 15-16 are gone. Elite TEs are worth a good deal in 1.5 PPR leagues, plus with the dual flex rule a stud TE can serve as a nice flex starter. Grab one if there is good talent left.
Assess your bye week situation. If three or more of your first five players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week so that I can be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against New Orleans, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Oakland, Buffalo, and Detroit should all yield good results during these weeks.
As an example, let's say you landed this team after 6 rounds (from the 5th position):
- 4. RB C.J. Spiller, BUF/12 (FPC ADP = 4)
- 21. RB Steven Jackson, ATL/6 (ADP = 21)
- 28. WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI/9 (ADP = 30)
- 45. WR Marques Colston, NO/7 (ADP = 46)
- 52. RB Shane Vereen, NE/10 (ADP = 52)
This is an excellent start. Three solid running backs and two Top 20 wide receiver, right out of the gate – and not a single bye week issue to boot. The only concerns at this point are wide receiver depth, tight end (none yet) and no quarterback yet.
So in this example, your next steps would be:
- Grab a tight end as soon as possible – most likely Jermichael Finley, Jared Cook or Kyle Rudolph in Round 6.
- Take a second tight end if a Top 12 tight end is still there in the next 2-3 rounds.
- Round out your depth at wide receiver, preferably without a Week 9 or Week 7 bye.
Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 0 QBs, 3 RBs, 3-4 WRs and 1-2 TEs after 9 rounds.
Here is another example (drafting from the 10th position):
- 10. RB Matt Forte, CHI/8 (ADP = 10)
- 15. RB Reggie Bush, DET/9 (ADP = 10)
- 34. WR Vincent Jackson, TB/5 (ADP = 36)
- 39 WR Randall Cobb, GB/4 (ADP = 39)
- 58. WR Pierre Garcon, WAS/5 (ADP = 59)
Assessing where you are:
- You have good roster balance –two starting RBs and three solid WRs.
- You have Bye Week issues in Week 5, but you can address that concern with depth in the next few rounds.
- This team also lacks a QB and a TE, with TE being the biggest immediate concern.
So in this example your next steps would be:
- Grab a tight end as soon as possible – most likely Jermichael Finley or Kyle Rudolph in Round 6.
- Take a second tight end if a Top 12 tight end is still there in the next 2-3 rounds.
- Round out your depth at RB, preferably without a Week 8 or Week 9 bye. Depth will dry up soon.
- Add a strong WR in the next 3-4 rounds (without a Week 5 bye).
Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 0 QBs, 3 RBs, 3-4 WRs and 1-2 TEs after 9 rounds.
See the theme here? That's right.
The Perfect FPC Draft should have 0 QB, 3 RBs, 3-4 WRs and 1-2 TEs after 9 rounds.
MOVING TO FILL POSITIONAL NEEDS
QUARTERBACKS
If you followed this plan up to here, you should not have selected a QB within the top 50 picks.
Last year we saw the rise of the rookie quarterback. Guys like Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson all were major contributors to your fantasy roster at the quarterback position. Other young players like Colin Kaepernick emerged to lead the 49ers. This wouldn't be so note-worthy if during this QB rebirth of sorts, the old guys left the game. But that did not happen. The normal familiar veterans (Brady, Manning brothers, etc) are all hanging around and playing great too.
The bottom line is that there have never been more "quality" QBs playing each week than what is available this season. I drafted Russell Wilson in an expert league in round 10 the other day. Tony Romo also routinely goes this late despite putting up over 4,000 passing yards last year. So for every drafter that pulls the trigger to get a Brees, Rodgers, or Peyton Manning early, some drafter (read YOU if you are wise) will grab someone like Romo or Russell as much as 6 to 7 rounds later. And I am telling you with conviction, there is not enough difference to make getting the "elite" guys even worthy of a draft strategy this season.
Waiting is for Winners...Draft the 12th QB
From my own projections, here are my top fantasy quarterbacks for this year:
- Aaron Rodgers, GB/4 (376 Fantasy Points)
- Drew Brees, NO/7 (363 Fantasy Points)
- Cam Newton, Car/4 (360 Fantasy Points)
- Peyton Manning, Den/9 (356 Fantasy Points)
- Matthew Stafford , Det/9 (347 Fantasy Points)
- Colin Kaepernick, SF/9 (338 Fantasy Points)
- Matt Ryan, Atl/6 (338 Fantasy Points)
- Andrew Luck, Ind/8 (334 Fantasy Points)
- Tony Romo, Dal/11 (333 Fantasy Points)
- Tom Brady, NE/10 (329 Fantasy Points)
- Robert Griffin III, Was/5 (328 Fantasy Points)
- Russell Wilson, Sea/12 (325 Fantasy Points)
Now consider the people that took any of the top 10 names on this list. Are they looking to add a quality backup? Would you if you drafted Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, or Matt Ryan? This dynamic defines the solution. Once 11 people have drafted their quarterback, you can wait another 12 to 20 picks and get the next guy. Who is it? It depends on your draft, but it's usually Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck or Tony Romo. And all of these guys would have that "elite tag" in any other year. Draft them all as your starter with confidence (and at a significant discount to every other drafter overpaying for the position.
But David...what if someone snipes the 12th quarterback from me? This is the beauty of waiting. You aren't penalized by this at all as their are still plenty of solid quarterback options that could easily threaten the top 12
Besides drafting the 12th Quarterback, here are the guys that I think represent great value this year:
Andy Dalton, Cin/12 (Value = QB13, ADP = 137) in the 11th round or later - The team promises to play a more up-tempo offense. They added weapons in the passing game and have AJ Green. Andy Dalton seems poised to have his best year as a pro yet.
Josh Freeman, TB/5 (Value = QB21, ADP = 159) in the 13th round or later - Universally under-valued every year, Freeman has all the pieces to be a great QB this year. He has two very capable WRs in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. He has an electric RB who can catch. He plays behind one of the best OLs. And he plays in a division with some of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Alex Smith, KC/10 (Value = QB20, ADP = 174) in the 14th round or later - He draws an early schedule that is among the best I have ever seen (@Jac, vs Dal, @Phi, vs NYG, @Ten, vs Oak). Even if you expect him to finish the season as the 20th best QB, he should be way better than that in these opening weeks. He also finishes against cupcakes Oakland and Indianapolis for your fantasy playoffs in weeks 15 and 16. You can get him as an after-thought, but he should produce way above his ADP.
Jake Locker, Ten/8 (Value = QB26, ADP = 185) in the 15th round or later - This isn't all that sexy of a pick, but Jake has Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, and even Chris Johnson in space to contend with. Jake also quietly rushed for 7.1 yards a carry in 2012. It's not out of the question to see it all come together for Jake and he has a break-through year.
Matt Flynn, Oak/7 (Value = QB28, ADP = likely undrafted) in the 18th or later - The Raiders look to be playing from behind in a lot of contests this year. But garbage fantasy points count the same as those scored in the 1st half. Matt has a lock on the starting job and it won't take much to exceed his average draft position.
RUNNING BACKS
In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. More and more teams are using a committee approach to the running back position, pulling the starter both on obvious passing downs and sometimes in goal line situations. It has made the workhorse backs (that do all three roles) even more valuable, but also created a bigger pool of next tier backs that don't do it all. If you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you likely have a nice stable of backs on your roster to build the rest of your team around.
But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.
Here are the other RBs that I would target for value (outside of the Top 50-60 picks):
Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl/6 (Value = RB39, ADP = 133) in the 10th round or later - Despite everyone saying all the right things about Steven Jackson, I am not a buyer. Jackson is old for RB standards (30) and has taken a lot of punishment. I see a bigger role for the talented Rodgers this year.
Jonathan Dwyer, Pit/5 (Value = RB43, ADP = 196) in the 11th round or later – With LeVeon Bell questionable at best to play this season, Dwyer vaults up the value chart as the likely lead back in a Steeler’s backfield by committee.
Joique Bell, Det/9 (Value = RB45, ADP = 157) in the 13th round or later – Detroit’s running game is more of a short passing attack, with Reggie Bush leading that effort this year. The Lions have grown frustrated with Mikel Leshoure, and it appears to be just a matter of time until Bell is the second back on the depth chart. If Reggie Bush were to miss any time due to injury, Bell, not Leshoure, would see a huge uptick in fantasy numbers.
Christine Michael, Sea/12 (Value = RB59, ADP = 184) in the 14th round or later - It's hard not to get excited about what this player brings to the table even as a rookie. He is a great fit to run behind this talented offensive line in Seattle. If Lynch were to miss time, Michael would likely be a top 10 RB the rest of the way (and possibly a lot better than this). When taking late shots at RB, this is exactly the kind of player you should be targeting.
Mike Tolbert, Car/4 (Value = RB54, ADP = 224) in the 17th round or later - This is another strong hedge that RB Jonathan Stewart just isn't right. If Stewart does miss significant time, Tolbert should get the majority of goal line carries and be use used on 3rd downs at a minimum. In a pinch Tolbert has also shown he can be an every-down back (was used in that role in San Diego due to injuries a few years back).
Stepfan Taylor, Ari/9 (Value = RB64, ADP = likely undrafted) in the 19th round or later – The Cardinals are going to struggle to move the ball on the ground, as they have a very suspect offensive line even before they take the first snap of the season. Rashard Mendenhall will be the starter, but Ryan Williams cannot get healthy, which opens the door for Taylor to be the next guy off of the bench. If Mendenhall gets hurt or struggles – or both – then Taylor could see a lot of playing time.
Justin Forsett, Jax/9 (Value = RB66, ADP = likely undrafted) in the 19th round or later - MJD is old and recovering from a serious injury. If he were to break down, Forsett should be a major benefactor.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft. Here are some guys that should represent excellent value this year:
Mike Williams, TB/5 (Value = WR33, ADP = 87) in the 7th round or later - Playing with a great offensive line, I think the ceiling is high for Mike this season. He was targeted 71 times in his last 8 games (just 7 less than Vincent Jackson during the same stretch), but managed to catch just 34 of these (Josh Freeman's accuracy was abysmal down the stretch).
Michael Floyd, Ari/9 (Value = WR34, ADP = 116) in the 8th round or later – Arizona is going to struggle to run the ball, which means that their passing attempts are going to be elevated. With Carson Palmer as the new quarterback and Larry Fitzgerald likely to draw the bulk of most defensive attention, Floyd should see plenty of targets against single coverage and produce strong fantasy numbers as a result.
Chris Givens, StL/11 (Value = WR37, ADP = 116) in the 9th round or later - Despite the fantasy community anointing talented rookie Tavon Austin as the WR1 for the Rams this season, all signs point to Chris Givens being that guy. With his blazing speed, Chris has huge upside in the later rounds.
Brian Hartline, Mia/6 (Value = WR41, ADP = 133) in the 11th round or later - While Mike Wallace sulks on the sideline,Brian Hartline is developing important chemistry with Ryan Tannehill. Brian set career highs in receptions and yards in 2012. He actually finished with over 1,000 yards receiving yet managed just 1 TD. That's an anomaly that can only improve this season.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind/8 (Value = WR65, ADP = 156) in the 13th round or later - This has more to do with Reggie Wayne turning 35 this season than being in love with DHB's skillset. Reggie took in a ridiculously high 213 targets last season so if he were to miss any time, DHB could be set up for a lot of production.
Brandon LaFell, Car/4 (Value = WR52, ADP = 178) in the 14th round or later - He is the clear WR2 on the Panthers. He posted career highs in catches, yards, TDs and yards per catch. He is a player on the rise having bettered his stats each of his first three years in the league. Additionally, starter Steve Smith, at age 34 is nearing the end of his career.
Stephen Hill, NYJ/10 (Value = WR59, ADP = 207) in the 15th round or later - Someone has to catch passes in New York. Santonio Holmes looks to be milking his time his roster spot before he injury settles with the team. No one is questioning the physical tools Hill came into the league with. He has them in spades. He underwhelmed as a rookie, but is getting good reviews in training camp. Late in drafts, these are the guys you target.
Markus Wheaton, Pit/5 (Value = WR61, ADP = 208) in the 15th round or later – Pittsburgh is likely to be using three wide receivers quite often this year with Heath Miller very questionable to play much of the season, which opens the door for Wheaton to see a healthy amount of playing time. Ben Roethlisberger will throw the ball to all three of his main targets (Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders) but Wheaton has already drawn positive comparisons to the departed Mike Wallace.
Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap, grab approximately three receivers in rounds 2 through 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.
TIGHT ENDS
The New England Patriots rolled out two rookie TEs in 2010 and those players took the league by storm. That continued through 2011 and many more teams are now deploying two TE sets to confuse defenses.
Normally, I would say that you can wait for tight ends, but that is just not the case in the FPC. Tight end tiers one (Jimmy Graham), two (Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski) and three (Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis) are all shallow and dry up fast. If you have the opportunity to get Graham in the middle of Round 1 or later, Witten or Gronkowski in Round 3, or Gonzalez or Davis before the end of Round 5, do so. If you miss out there – do not worry. The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Jermichael Finley, GB/4 (Value = TE5, ADP = 62) at the end of the 5th round or later.. The difference between the 2011 and 2012 stat lines for the talented (yet often under-producing) Finley had to do with TDs. He scored 8 TDs in 2011 and just 2 in 2012. These TD numbers should easily improve this season with the departure of Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson not yet at 100%. WR Randall Cobb is also battling a biceps tear/strain that could render him less than 100% all year. The biggest positive to take away from last year for Finley is that he caught 6 more passes despite 7 less targets.
Here are the other TEs that I think represent great value in drafts this season:
Jordan Cameron, Cle/10 (Value = TE12, ADP = 104) in the 8th or later - WR Josh Gordon will start the year suspended and signs point to the team leaning on Cameron a great deal this season. Gifted with a basketball type frame, Cameron is built to succeed in a Norv Turner offense that has a history of utilizing the TE. He also gets to play on a team that has one of the best OLs ensuring that he should be able to release on a lot of plays as a check down.
Fred Davis, Was/5 (Value = TE13, ADP = 113) in the 9th or later - He is playing for a contract and by all indications is completely recovered from the Achilles injury that derailed last season. He has minimal competition at the position on his team, and the team could use his production. This late, picks are all about possible upside.
Dwayne Allen, Ind/8 (Value = TE14, ADP = 150) in the 12th round or later - The Indianapolis Colts are another team with young talent on offense that is developing together towards a great future. Similar to New England, the Colts use two tight ends quite often, a scheme QB Andrew Luck is very familiar with since using it at Stanford. Both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are big targets that can get open over the middle and in the Red Zone. While it may seem like Allen outperformed Fleener last year, Fleener missed four games - so both tight ends were comparable on a per-game basis. Allen’s currently available much later than Fleener, so he is the value play TE here.
Since tight end is a premium in the FFPC and FPC contests, here is an article where Jeff Pasquino breaks down some sleeper tight ends. To sum that article up, here are three additional later picks to consider:
Zach Sudfeld, NE/10 (Value = TE26, ADP = 159) in the 12th round or later – Everyone has been wondering when Rob Gronkowski will come back to the team, but with him out an undrafted free agent has really stepped up in his wake. Zach Sudfeld (Nevada) has been running with the first team for quite a while now, and he just caught two touchdowns against Tampa Bay in the preseason. He is a bona fide sleeper and worth a late round pick, especially in a Tom Brady-led New England passing game.
Tyler Eifert, Cin/12 (Value = TE22, ADP = 139) in the 11th round or later – The old saying goes that if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none – but that does not apply to tight ends. The Bengals drafted Tyler Eifert in Round 1 (21st overall) and they have been incorporating him quite a bit in their passing game. With A.J. Green, the best receiver on the team by far, sidelined and resting in the preseason, Eifert has seen a ton of targets from QB Andy Dalton. Jermaine Gresham is still a viable receiver as well, but the veteran tight end is giving way to Eifert for most of the targets. If you want to target one Bengal tight end, go after Eifert.
Travis Kelce, KC/10 (Value = TE37, ADP = 191) in the 15th round or later - The Chiefs have three options at tight end, starting with veteran Tony Moaeki, who is back from an injury that ruined last year’s efforts. Anthony Fasano is a veteran they added during free agency, but the name to watch is rookie Travis Kelce. New head coach Andy Reid loves to throw, and Kelce could be his “move TE” and a big part of the new passing game for the Chiefs.
PLACE KICKERS
In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK in the last two rounds of your draft. In leagues that draft this position real late (most leagues), look towards the second to last round to grab the one kicker you will roster. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait until their last pick to take their kickers and end up missing the good kickers by a few picks. Most likely that sleeper WR you want in the second to last round will still be there for you in the last round. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.
The kicker I am targeting in a lot of drafts is Randy Bullock, Hou/8. You can usually get him after six kickers are taken.
DEFENSES
Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until 7-9 defenses get selected and then take the Steelers defense with confidence.
Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick-ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Jacksonville, Buffalo, NY Jets, Cleveland and Oakland you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
1. Draft for value until the top 50 players is exhausted. These are your "core" and will define how you approach the rest of the draft.
2. Look to select the 12th quarterback off the board 10 to 20 picks after the 11th QB is taken. Add Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman or Alex Smith as key depth to allow maximum flexibility in playing great matchups. Make sure to laugh every time someone else takes an early QB too.
3. Target TE Jermichael Finley in the late 5th or early part of the 6th round, but if you miss on him grab Jordan Cameron in the 8th and play with confidence.
4. Add value at RB, WR and TE in the middle rounds to protect bye weeks, add critical depth, and give yourself a chance to trade off talent to bolster your squad as the season progresses.
5. Use the final rounds to add your kicker, a defense and to go after young players in a "Swing-For-The-Fence" mentality. These are players who most likely have a reserve role now, but could be huge fantasy producers should they be given a larger role in their offenses. All should be able to be drafted after round 15. At quarterback I like Jake Locker, Matt Flynn and EJ Manuel. At running back I like Roy Helu, Jonathan Dwyer, and Knile Davis. At wide receiver I like Brandon LaFell, Rod Streater, Markus Wheaton, and Keenan Allen. At tight end I like Rob Housler, David Ausberry, and Luke Stocker as younger players that could dominate if given the chance.
6. Unless your league has some exotic scoring that elevates defenses, it is best to wait until the last few rounds to grab your defense. After 7-9 defenses are off the board, you should be able to grab the Pittsburgh Steelers.
7. Wait until the second to last round and grab your kicker. Target Randy Bullock who is flying way below the radar after missing last season due to injury.
Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.
Here is a sample team drafted from the 7th position.
- Rd 1 - Pick 11 – RB Doug Martin, TB/5 (ADP = 3)
- Rd 2 - Pick 14 – RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX/9 (ADP = 22)
- Rd 3 - Pick 25 – WR Roddy White, ATL/6 (ADP = 27)
- Rd 4 - Pick 38 – WR Marques Colston, NO/7 (ADP = 46)
- Rd 5 - Pick 49 – RB Shane Vereen, NE/10 (ADP = 52)
- Rd 6 - Pick 62 - TE Jermichael Finley, GB/4 (ADP = 62)
- Rd 7 - Pick 73 – WR Greg Jennings, MIN/5 (ADP = 76)
- Rd 8 - Pick 86 - WR Mike Williams, TB/5 (ADP = 87)
- Rd 9 - Pick 97 – TE Jordan Cameron, CLE/10 (ADP = 104)
Roster breakdown = 3 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE.
- Rd 10 - Pick 110 – Quarterback #12 (likely Russell, Romo or Luck)
- Rd 11 - Pick 121 – RB Jonathan Dwyer, PIT/5 (ADP = 196)
- Rd 12 - Pick 134 – TE Dwayne Allen, IND/8 (ADP = 150)
- Rd 13 - Pick 145 – RB Joique Bell, DET/9 (ADP = 157)
- Rd 14 - Pick 158 – QB Josh Freeman, TB/5 (ADP = 159)
Roster breakdown = 2 QB, 5 RB, 4 WR, 3 TE.
- Rd 15 - Pick 169 – WR Brandon LaFell, CAR/4 (ADP = 178)
- Rd 16 - Pick 182 - TE Travis Kelce, KC/10 (ADP = 191)
- Rd 17 - Pick 193 - WR Markus Wheaton, PIT/5 (ADP = 208)
- Rd 18 - Pick 206 - Best Defense
- Rd 19 - Pick 217 - Best Kicker
- Rd 20 - Pick 230 – RB Stepfan Taylor, ARI/7 (ADP > 250)
Roster breakdown = 2 QB, 6 RB, 6 WR, 4 TE, 1K, 1D.