The 2014-15 Footballguys Playoff Challenge Guide

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

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The FFPC and Footballguys.com present: The World Famous Playoff Challenge, the largest and most exciting playoff contest in all of fantasy football. This year's contest will be capped at a maximum of 3,750 entries and will award a record smashing $200,000 Grand Prize and over $600,000 in total guaranteed cash prizes paying down to 500th place! All based on a $200 entry fee. This is the ONLY way to watch playoff football!

Whenever you play a new contest (or even re-enter a contest you have played in the past), it is always a good idea to read all of the rules from start to finish.  Knowing the rules and the scoring system sounds pretty straightforward and an obvious thing to do, but you would be surprised how many fantasy football players overlook the basics here.  Read the rules of the contest and see what nuances are there to be picked up on when you set your lineups.  Here is a link to all of the rules, and I will be discussing a few key ones as we go on here.

The first rule you have to take note of is that you can only select one player per NFL franchise in constructing your lineup.   Couple that with the rule that once you enter your lineup you are done making changes, and it becomes very clear that this is the most critical task you will have for this contest.  Selecting just the right 10 players (from 10 different teams) is going to decide your success level in the FPC Playoff Challenge.

So how do you begin to build a good team?  It comes down to a few simple tasks that you must do first:

Task #1 – Predict the Postseason

The first task is to predict the NFL postseason.  Well, I never said that these tasks would be easy, now did I?  The most important part of your lineup is going to be to pick players who keep playing, all the way to the Super Bowl.  Choosing players from teams that will be playing more than once is critical for team success.  Throw in that both teams that get to the Super Bowl will have played at least three games, and it is easy to see why this (not so simple) task has to be done first. 

I have some good news in that you are only trying to figure out who advances to the Super Bowl – you need not try and figure out who goes home with the Lombardi Trophy.  All that matters is that you have players that keep on playing, and hopefully their fantasy production keeps pace with each game.  Keep in mind that it is not just about predicting who gets to the Super Bowl, but also who advances each round of the postseason.  With 10 different players on your roster from 10 different teams, minimizing the number of players on your roster that only play one contest is also critical.  While it is impossible to avoid these “one and done” players (as at least four teams will be eliminated after one week, so only eight teams can play more than one contest), keeping their numbers in your lineup is very important.   When in doubt, try and avoid the 5^th or 6^th seeded Wild Card team players, unless you feel an upset will happen or that a player on those teams could have a dominant performance in the Wild Card round.

Task #2 – List the Stud Skill Players

The second task to building your FPC roster is a little easier.  All you have to do here is to list the elite skill players for ach playoff team for the postseason.   By elite I mean players who can carry their team, almost by themselves.  Think of guys who would be Top 30-50 players in a fantasy draft next year, or even higher.  Before you write a name down, ask yourself if the player can put up a “milestone game”, where he gets 100-yards rushing or receiving plus a touchdown against playoff caliber competition, or throw for 300+ yards and a few scores.  If the answer is yes, he makes the list.  It should be pretty straightforward to compile this group of players.

Task #3 – Define the Key Positions

Some positions are going to score more points than others, just like in any fantasy football lineup.  With the FFPC scoring system, it is usually fair to assume that a quarterback will outscore most other “skill” players (RB, WR, TE), and with full PPR, wide receivers can outpoint running backs, on average – but tight ends can hold their own with the bonus scoring for PPR (1.5 points per catch) rule also in effect.  While some of this can be debated, it is pretty clear that quarterbacks score more than RB, WR or TE, and all four of those positions usually outscore kickers and defenses.   So with that in mind, your key eight roster spots (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 flex) should most likely be dedicated to teams that will play at least two games in the playoffs.  Reserve your kicker and defensive roster spots for teams you believe will be “one and done” after Wild Card weekend.

Task #4 - Find the Unique Skill Players

The next few tasks are going to help you narrow your list down a bit and start to help make your lineup take shape.  Take a good look at your list of stud skill players and see if there is either (A) a key player that jumps off the list at one particular position or (B) only one player from a given team that is clearly the guy who makes that team’s offense go.  One such example would be Rob Gronkowski, who is unique at both positon (tight end) and his ability to dominate a contest.  Putting Gronkowski down as your starting tight end sounds like a great first step to me.

Task #5 – Round out your Roster

Combining your player list and your list of the playoff outcomes (who is going to win each round, and advance), you should be able to narrow down your roster reasonably quickly.  Look at your player list and focus on teams you expect to win at least once (thus playing at least two games in the playoffs).  If you see 2-3 teams that are keyed on offense by a wide receiver, he is your player for that team.  Same rules apply for running back.  Lastly, your quarterback should be from a high-powered offense that can play at least two – probably three – games in the playoffs.

Strategy Tip – If you are on the fence between a particular game (such as Dallas and Detroit), consider taking a key player from each side.  By doing this, you are guaranteeing that one of those players plays the following week.  To help decide, think of which player must really play well to beat the other team.  If you think Calvin Johnson must have a great day to beat Dallas and Dez Bryant must go off for Dallas to win, put both on your roster.

Strrategy Tip #2 – Remember that each round of the postseason re-seeds, which means that if the #6 seed advances, they must travel to the #1 seed in the second (Divisional) round.  That is important to note for both matchups and level of difficulty for each team to advance (the 6^th seed must beat the 3-seed then the 1-seed to get to the third round). 

Strategy Tip #3 – Be sure to have a top skill player from each of the teams that you believe will get to the Super Bowl.  Remember that these players will get at least three games to perform and that the points count double in the Super Bowl itself.

Below I have given my attempt at a typical approach for building an FPC roster.  I am making the assumption that all of the playoff games will hold seed, meaning that the lower seeded team will always win.

Table 1 – Stud Skill Players

Now let's build a roster.

Table 2 – Sample Postseason Roster

Once again, the above is just an example.  You have to put your own take on the playoffs and your team, so choose wisely!

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Good luck this postseason!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.