This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 8
Weekly ranking: 13
Difference: -5
Rivers has been a pleasant surprise this season. He has the Chargers in the thick of a playoff berth. However, we do not like his chances of putting up big points in Miami against the Dolphins. The cross-country travel is bad enough. But, let's remember that this is the same Dolphins defense that has shut down some quality pass offenses the past few weeks.
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 10
Difference: -6
Brees and the Saints are coming off a huge win on Sunday night and travel to Carolina to face the Panthers for the unquestioned lead in the NFC South. The elite quarterback has not played well on the road this season. In addition, we expect the Panthers to know how to contain the New Orleans pass offense. Expectations are tempered when Brees steps away from the home dome.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 7
Weekly ranking: 14
Difference: -7
Bernard is still recovering from the hip injury that forced him from last week's game. This Sunday, the Bengals face an improved Jaguars defense. We expect Cincinnati to be able to gain an early lead and ride rookie Jeremy Hill the remainder of the contest. There is no reason to risk further injury to the talented young runner.
Top 200 ranking: 17
Weekly ranking: 25
Difference: -8
With the poor quarterback play of late, there has been little room to run for the talented tailback. With the Jets traveling to Kansas City to meet the Chiefs, we do not expect the trend to be broken. The Chiefs defense will look to slow down the running game and force Michael Vick to beat them through the air. Kansas City will stack the box and dare Vick to throw. With the game expected to be lopsided, there are several factors working against Ivory.
Top 200 ranking: 15
Weekly ranking: 20
Difference: -5
Bradshaw is taking advantage of the bigger workload and produced solid fantasy numbers. This week's game in New York versus the Giants will be a tough matchup. The Giants are his former team and will have an idea – especially coming off a bye week – to stop the veteran runner.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 23
Weekly ranking: 34
Difference: -11
Crabtree has struggled for targets this season and could do so again as the 49ers meet the Rams in a divisional contest. While Crabtree could score any given week, minor injuries and talented teammates have kept the impending free agent from having the type of season he had hoped. The Rams have a solid defense, one which plays well against teams in the division as evidenced of the upset against the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago.
Top 200 ranking: 33
Weekly ranking: 25
Difference: -8
Sanu has stepped up while A.J. Green was out of the lineup. Green is expected back this week against Jacksonville. We do not anticipate Andy Dalton attempting that many passes on the day as the Bengals should be in control from the onset.
Top 200 ranking: 28
Weekly ranking: 43
Difference: -15
Jones has quietly put up solid numbers this season. We do not like his chances of having a big game this week against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has not played well of late, but we expect Jones to see Richard Sherman often. The ex-Packers' star will struggle against the tight man coverage.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 10
Weekly ranking: 15
Difference: -5
With the Colts traveling to New York to face the Giants, we do not like the chances for Allen to have a big outing. New York is coming off a bye and will be prepared for Andrew Luck and company. There may not be many touchdowns in the game, negating Allen's big red zone presence.
Top 200 ranking: 3
Weekly ranking: 9
Difference: -6
Thomas and the Broncos will get a good test against the Patriots this week. New England knows how to defend the tight end position and will look to slow down the athletic pass-catcher.
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