Overvalued Players
This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 7
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -10
The game against the Detroit Lions is in London this week. In fact, the game will be played before many on the west coast is awake. The Lions have a great defense and will look to contain the pass-happy Falcons offense. We do not like Ryan's chances of topping the 300-yard mark. There are better fantasy options off the waiver wire this week.
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 8
Difference: -4
Brees and the Saints come back home to play the Green Bay Packers in the dome. The New Orleans passer plays much better at home than on the road. We do have him a little lower this week for a couple of reasons. First, tight end Jimmy Graham is very limited with the shoulder injury. Even when he sees some snaps, Graham will be unable to make huge plays per normal. Also, keep in mind how the Packers defense has played very well of late. This is a defense which harassed Cam Newton last week and will bring the pressure on Brees.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 17
Weekly ranking: 27
Difference: -10
Lacy and the Packers travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, a team hungry for a victory. While the Saints do not have the best defense in the league, we expect the game script to go away from Lacy. This contest should be high scoring as the two marquee quarterbacks face off. James Starks has seen increasing playing time of late and is good in the passing game. He could play a lot versus New Orleans.
Top 200 ranking: 14
Weekly ranking: 30
Difference: -16
Forsett has quieted his critics and played very well since taking over for Ray Rice. As with Bernard below, we do not like Forsett's chances in a hard-fought division matchup. The Bengals defense allowed the Colts to run well last week but we are putting that into the “aberration” category. Also concerning for Forsett was his lack of pass targets last week. He is a player who gets few touchdown opportunities and fantasy owners need the receptions.
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 12
Difference: -6
Bernard has looked out of synch of late as the Bengals offense has struggled without A.J. Green on the field. The matchup this week against the Baltimore Ravens should provide a stiff test for the Cincinnati offense, especially the running game. Bernard is a low-end RB1 this week against the improving Ravens defense.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 10
Weekly ranking: 26
Difference: -16
Jeffery and the Bears passing game has been off the past few weeks. The team has not put up big numbers for a couple of weeks and now travels to New England to meet the Patriots. This will be a tough game for the budding superstar. We expect Revis and company to lock down Jeffery and Marshall. This game has the potential to be combustible for the struggling Chicago offense. The Bears players were yelling and screaming at one another after the loss to Miami a week ago and it could get ugly in New England.
Top 200 ranking: 22
Weekly ranking: 30
Difference: -8
Jackson has made some huge plays for his new team. With Washington likely starting Colt McCoy under center, it is difficult for us to back the play-making receivers, especially Jackson. We do not have faith in McCoy's arm strength to hit the lightning-quick ex-Eagle down the field. The offense will be frustrating to watch until Robert Griffin III III gets healthy, and possibly not even then.
Top 200 ranking: 19
Weekly ranking: 36
Difference: -17
The Eagles are coming off the bye week and travel to Arizona to meet one of the league's top defenses. We do not like the chances of Maclin (or his quarterback) to have a strong fantasy game. The Cardinals have slowed some of the NFL's top offenses this season and play especially well at home. We do not like Maclin as anything more than a low-end WR3 this week.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 14
Difference: -8
Walker has slowly drifted into the background for the flailing Tennessee offense. This week's matchup against the Houston Texans will be a tough one for the athletic tight end. Also hindering his pass targets are the poor quarterback play of Charlie Whitehurst and the improving Justin Hunter. Walker is not a player we like this week.
Top 200 ranking: 1
Weekly ranking: 15
Difference: -14
Graham played last week, although at a very limited level. The superstar tight end was on the field for less than half of his team's offensive snaps and looks to have a similar role this week against the Packers. He is still bothered by a shoulder injury and cannot catch the ball in traffic, thus limiting Graham's ability for huge plays in the middle of the field.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
