This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 14
Weekly ranking: 25
Difference: -11
The rookie has played reasonable well since taking over for Chad Henne. He finally has his receiving corps healthy. But, the matchup against the Cleveland Browns this week is enough for the youngster to be moved way down the rankings. The Browns defense is vastly improved over those of years gone by. We still like Bortles' future, and his ability to have big games later in the season. The game against Cleveland is not one that offers optimism.
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 12
Difference: -8
Brees and the Saints travel to Detroit this week to face the Lions. The Detroit defense has been very strong this season. Add in the poor performance of the Saints offense on the road and there are reasons to worry about the production of the superstar quarterback this weekend. Brees is still a low-end QB1 but will struggle to put up big yardage on the road and likely without Jimmy Graham in the lineup.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 11
Weekly ranking: 15
Difference: -4
We see McKinnon falling even further down the rankings as the week progresses. He had a solid outing last week against the Lions as the Vikings played from behind. However, in that game, Matt Asiata played little as Minnesota was playing from behind almost from the opening kickoff. The game in Buffalo this week should be lower scoring, and one the team will look to get Asiata involved early. This is a game to rest the rookie and see how it plays out. Add in a comment from coach Zimmer that McKinnon needs to be more consistent and it all means that the rookie is a player to bench this week unless desperate.
Top 200 ranking: 18
Weekly ranking: 22
Difference: -4
Vereen is expected to take on a bigger role in the Patriots offense with the injury to Stevan Ridley. The expected game scripts for the game against division-rival New York will not match up well with Vereen's skill set. New England is expected to have a comfortable lead, and just control the clock and the flow of the contest. Vereen is a strong receiver, but offers little between the tackles.
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 8
Difference: -4
Bernard has not been able to carry the offense with the rash of injuries to the receiving corps. The Bengals have not been able to run the ball with any consistency. The game this week against the Indianapolis Colts is not as good of matchup as it might first appear. The Colts have been effective slowing down opposing running backs much more than in the past.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 17
Weekly ranking: 7
Difference: -10
Sanders has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos offense. He has added another speed element to the high-powered offense. This week, however, we do not expect Sanders to have a big game. Denver hosts San Francisco and the 49ers do a great job stopping the WR2 for opposing teams. Sanders is still a fantasy starter for most teams, yet one with lower expectations.
Top 200 ranking: 13
Weekly ranking: 18
Difference: -5
Cooks has made a big impact on the Saints offense, able to stretch the field. As with Brees above, we are not optimistic about the rookie breaking open big plays in Detroit. The Lions defense has been stout this season. This game will be lower scoring than many expect.
Top 200 ranking: 20
Weekly ranking: 32
Difference: -12
Jones has played moderately well since signing with the Raiders. He will face a strong Arizona Cardinals defense this week. We do not like his chances of scoring a touchdown, something that has buoyed his fantasy production this season. Many weeks, Jones would have few catches – for few receiving yards – but score to give owners a false sense of production. He is WR17 in PPR leagues, yet has topped 86 receiving yards just once. We do not see it happening again versus the Cardinals.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 7
Weekly ranking: 9
Difference: -2
Kelce and the Chiefs come off the bye week to meet arch-rival San Diego Chargers. Kelce has shown buckets of promise so far this year. While this is a slight downgrade, we do not think the second-year tight end will be roaming the middle of the field free.
Top 200 ranking: 10
Weekly ranking: 16
Difference: -6
Amaro has come on to become a viable weapon for the Jets. Too bad he faces the Patriots this week. The rookie tight end will have some huge games this season as the New York offense searches for ways to best get him the ball. But, as one of the top play-makers on the Jets offense, we expect coach Belichick to have a play to contain Amaro.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
