This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 1
Weekly ranking: 8
Difference: -7
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos travel to Seattle for a rematch of the Super Bowl. Sure, the Broncos are motivated after the blowout last February. However, let's remember how much better the Seahawks defense plays at home. And, Seattle is coming off a loss to San Diego. This is a team that does not want to begin the season with a 1-2 record. No, we would not suggest you bench the future Hall of Fame player, though expectations should be tempered.
Top 200 ranking: 12
Weekly ranking: 19
Difference: -7
Dalton and the Bengals host the Titans this week in a game Cincinnati should dominate. There are a couple of reasons we are not optimistic for the fantasy outlook of Dalton. First of all, star receiver A.J. Green does not look like he is playing in the game. This will seriously impede Dalton's chances for a monster outing. Add in the fact that Tennessee is a sieve versus the run (e.g., last week's game against Dallas where DeMarco Murray gashed the Titans) should translate into more work for tailbacks Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. We do not project the ginger-haired quarterback to throw much in this contest.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 14
Weekly ranking: 21
Difference: -7
While he is playing through the foot injury, Ellington does not have the same explosion as before the injury. Making matters worse is he has not been getting the short yardage carries. So, the talented back has to score from afar to see the endzone. This week, Arizona hosts San Francisco in a tough divisional contest. Even though he is still a fantasy RB2, we do not like Ellington's chances of blowing up this week.
Top 200 ranking: 18
Weekly ranking: 27
Difference: -9
Bush was correctly on this list last week due to the matchup at Carolina. In that game, we saw Joique Bell begin to nose out the speedy Bush for touches. This week, the Lions have the Packers coming to town. The Green bay defense has been better against the run that the pass. Stafford should have a big game passing while the running attack struggles.
Top 200 ranking: 15
Weekly ranking: 22
Difference: -7
Spiller was able to make a few big plays in last week's game, leading the Bills to a 2-0 record. This week, the San Diego Chargers travel to upstate New York. San Diego is coming off a monster victory over the Seahawks. This is a game we expect both offenses to struggle. Spiller will need to break off huge plays in order to be a fantasy-relevant player this week. It will be difficult versus the Chargers who help Marshawn Lynch in check a week ago.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 13
Weekly ranking: 33
Difference: -20
Floyd was correctly on this list a week ago. The downgrade at quarterback to Drew Stanton will impede the fantasy success of the Cardinals pass catchers. The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers will be a very difficult test for the Arizona pass offense without Carson Palmer under center. The drop at quarterback and opponent is enough to move Floyd down from borderline WR1 to low WR3.
Top 200 ranking: 18
Weekly ranking: 31
Difference: -13
Cooks is a player who burst onto the scene in the week one matchup against the Falcons. This week's game against the Vikings should be full of big plays. We expect Brees and the Saints passing game to rebound, but the running attack to gouge Minnesota often. Cooks is a very good young player. He will have better matchups in the coming weeks.
Top 200 ranking: 12
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -5
Harvin has enjoyed a strong first two games of the season. He looks healthy and able to contribute in a variety of ways for the Seattle offense. This week, the Seahawks travel to Denver to meet the Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch. We expect Denver to show Harvin plenty of attention. He is one of the few big-play players for the Super Bowl champions. Harvin is still a fantasy starter, but with a lower ceiling than some weeks.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 5
Weekly ranking: 18
Difference: -13
Cameron is still very limited with the shoulder injury. Even if he plays in the contest against the Ravens, we do not like Cameron's chances of having a fantasy-worthy production for fantasy owners. It is best to give him a week and see how the injury plays out.
Top 200 ranking: 11
Weekly ranking: 16
Difference: -5
Davis left last week's contest with a sprained ankle, and on crutches. The game against the Arizona Cardinals would normally be a plus matchup for an opposing tight end but we are leery of the athletic Davis playing well in the game, if at all. He is another player who is best to watch a week and monitor the situation.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
