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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 9
Weekly ranking: 15
Difference: -6
Wilson has not looked comfortable the past few weeks. Could it be the loss of Percy Harvin? This week's matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs will be a stiff test for the Seattle pass offense. The Seahawks are two games behind the Cardinals in the NFC West division and need a win. This will be a hard-fought game with the outcome likely riding on which team runs the ball more effectively. We do not anticipate Wilson throwing the ball even 30 times in the game.
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 9
Difference: -3
Stafford is riding high after the last-second win against the Miami Dolphins a week ago. Having Calvin Johnson back in the lineup was not bad, either. However, this week's game in Arizona is a very tough game for fantasy outcomes. The Cardinals defense does not yield big fantasy performances to opposing quarterbacks. This is a bad matchup for the pass-happy Stafford.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 20
Weekly ranking: 24
Difference: -4
Mason and the Rams will have their collective hands full with the Broncos coming to town this Sunday. We expect Denver to play with the lead most of the game, possibly limiting Mason's playing time in favor of Benny Cunningham. This ranking would look much worse if there were not three of the Top 13 running backs in the Top 200 Forward on bye this week.
Top 200 ranking: 28
Weekly ranking: 37
Difference: -9
Other than the costly fumble, Brown played well last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. With Fred Jackson now a little healthier than last Sunday, the carries will be split, making none of the Bills backs certain fantasy starters. Even Anthony Dixon could get snaps. Add in the strong play of the Dolphins defense of late and we cannot recommend starting Brown as anything more than a flex player.
Top 200 ranking: 18
Weekly ranking: 26
Difference: -8
Miller is nicked up and may not get the full complement of snaps against Buffalo on Thursday night. The Bills have a strong defense, especially on the line, and will look to slow down the Miami running game. Even if he plays, we do not expect Miller to top 75 total yards in the contest. With both teams having strong defenses, this contest looks to be low scoring and will not allow a tailback from either team to have a great stat line.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr/strong>
Top 200 ranking: 9
Weekly ranking: 22
Difference: -13
Beckham played surprisingly well against Richard Sherman last week. We expect him to get plenty of attention this week against the 49ers. The rookie looks to have gained the confidence of quarterback Eli Manning and could be the team's WR1 the remainder of the season. He will have much better matchups against the weak defenses of the NFC East. We like Beckham as a fantasy WR2 this week, with minimal upside in a tough matchup.
Top 200 ranking: 10
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -7
Maclin and the Eagles travel to Green Bay to face the red-hot Packers. This will be a very tough matchup for Mark Sanchez and the Philadelphia passing game. While Maclin remains a solid WR2, we are tempering expectations for this week. The Packers defense will look to slow down Maclin and make the other pass catchers beat them.
Top 200 ranking: 17
Weekly ranking: 25
Difference: -8
Boldin has been the go to receiver for quarterback Colin Kaepernick this season. The veteran has been very reliable, able to make big catches for first downs. The game in New York against the Giants may be a tougher matchup than many expect for the San Francisco passing game. The 49ers will be able to run better than pass against the New York defense.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 8
Weekly ranking: 12
Difference: -4
Donnell and the Giants passing game will have a tough matchup against the San Francisco defense. This is the same 49ers defense which gave Drew Brees fits last week.
Top 200 ranking: 13
Weekly ranking: 9
Difference: -4
Walker is not entirely healthy this week. It will be difficult for him to excel, especially with rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger under center, against the hungry Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. We do not like Walker's chances of being fantasy-relevant this week.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.) with feedback.
