Small leagues are a lot of fun. There is something about the eight or ten team leagues that make them a enjoyable. The size makes them much different than the standard twelve teamers. As with any other unique league, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies. An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft. This article will specifically look at ten team leagues using PPR scoring. We will examine strategies especially designed for the smaller leagues in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster. This will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.
Down to basics, what are the differences I should know about the small leagues?
a. Since there are no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs. The whole draft is focused on how to draft enough elite players to win. It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates. The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts each and every year.
b. Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues? Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues?
c. The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2014 than in years gone by. How can I take advantage of this phenomena?
d. With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge?
e. Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early?
How do I best address these questions above?
a. Since we need studs in order to gain advantages, how best do I go about drafting these players? The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge. The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft. When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another. In the table below, we can see how a top-five wideout has a similar value to a large group of backs. So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round? It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs. Look for studs. A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if they give you a two or three points per game edge each week.
b. In smaller (eight or ten teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the fifth round unless you get a stud at an outstanding value. There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available. In smaller leagues, owners want to wait on quarterback (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further. So, wait on quarterback and try to find studs at other positions. Maybe the best strategy is to wait until at least eight quarterbacks are drafted before even looking at the position. The depth at the quarterback position is enough that the risk-taking fantasy owners might be able to wait until other teams begin taking backups, and then select two of Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, or even Andy Dalton.
c. We will look a little later at how weighted the values are slanted toward the backs. The ball carriers have a huge VBD value edge – even with PPR scoring - over the other positions so it is best to lock up as many top rushers as possible. The expected fantasy production for these players at the position has definite tiers. But, even the lesser fantasy starters are worth more than most all quarterbacks and every tight end not named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski.
d. Unless going after super stud (Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, or Dez Bryant), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until ten or fifteen are off the board. There is very little difference in expected production so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage.
e. There are at least ten good kickers and team defenses so every team can have a good option. You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position. Either take a stud earlier than you would think, or wait until ten are gone. The stud gives you an extra few points a game so it is a viable strategy. For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league. There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose. Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup.
When we look at the VBD (Value Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions. The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections. It is amazing that no quarterback – not even Peyton Manning - and only one tight end were valued in the first two rounds. This may be a surprise to you, but the reason is that there are several good options at both positions. Even in PPR scoring, more than half of the first two rounds (20 picks) are ball carriers. The reason? There are so few quality fantasy backs. The league variables used were ten teams, sixteen roster spots, PPR scoring, and starting requirements of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, and 1 Team Defense. The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers. It is obvious looking at the table of top fifty players below that smaller leagues dictate a strong nucleus of running backs.
Rank | Pos | PosRank | Player | Team | Points | VBD | ADP | Age |
1 | RB | 1 | Jamaal Charles | KC/6 | 313 | 165 | 1.01 | 28 |
2 | WR | 1 | Calvin Johnson | Det/9 | 298 | 122 | 1.04 | 29 |
3 | RB | 2 | Matt Forte | Chi/9 | 264 | 116 | 1.05 | 29 |
4 | RB | 3 | LeSean McCoy | Phi/7 | 259 | 112 | 1.02 | 26 |
5 | RB | 4 | Adrian Peterson | Min/10 | 243 | 96 | 1.03 | 29 |
6 | WR | 2 | Demaryius Thomas | Den/4 | 271 | 95 | 1.08 | 27 |
7 | WR | 3 | A.J. Green | Cin/4 | 270 | 93 | 2.01 | 26 |
8 | WR | 4 | Dez Bryant | Dal/11 | 268 | 91 | 1.09 | 26 |
9 | RB | 5 | Eddie Lacy | GB/9 | 234 | 87 | 1.06 | 23 |
10 | RB | 6 | Arian Foster | Hou/10 | 233 | 86 | 2.03 | 28 |
11 | WR | 5 | Brandon Marshall | Chi/9 | 259 | 82 | 2.08 | 30 |
12 | RB | 7 | Giovani Bernard | Cin/4 | 229 | 81 | 2.09 | 23 |
13 | WR | 6 | Julio Jones | Atl/9 | 256 | 80 | 2.06 | 25 |
14 | WR | 7 | Antonio Brown | Pit/12 | 254 | 77 | 3.04 | 26 |
15 | TE | 1 | Jimmy Graham | NO/6 | 248 | 71 | 1.07 | 28 |
16 | RB | 8 | DeMarco Murray | Dal/11 | 217 | 69 | 2.02 | 26 |
17 | WR | 8 | Alshon Jeffery | Chi/9 | 244 | 68 | 3.01 | 24 |
18 | RB | 9 | Montee Ball | Den/4 | 212 | 65 | 2.07 | 24 |
19 | RB | 10 | LeVeon Bell | Pit/12 | 212 | 64 | 2.04 | 22 |
20 | RB | 11 | Doug Martin | TB/7 | 209 | 61 | 2.1 | 25 |
21 | WR | 9 | Jordy Nelson | GB/9 | 237 | 60 | 3.03 | 29 |
22 | TE | 2 | Rob Gronkowski | NE/10 | 237 | 59 | 3.1 | 25 |
23 | QB | 1 | Peyton Manning | Den/4 | 378 | 59 | 2.05 | 38 |
24 | RB | 12 | Marshawn Lynch | Sea/4 | 206 | 59 | 1.1 | 28 |
25 | RB | 13 | Reggie Bush | Det/9 | 206 | 58 | 4.02 | 29 |
26 | WR | 10 | Randall Cobb | GB/9 | 234 | 57 | 3.08 | 24 |
27 | WR | 11 | Andre Johnson | Hou/10 | 227 | 51 | 4.08 | 33 |
28 | WR | 12 | Vincent Jackson | TB/7 | 227 | 50 | 4.05 | 31 |
29 | RB | 14 | Rashad Jennings | NYG/8 | 197 | 50 | 6.1 | 29 |
30 | RB | 15 | Joique Bell | Det/9 | 197 | 49 | 6.08 | 28 |
31 | RB | 16 | Shane Vereen | NE/10 | 195 | 47 | 5.06 | 25 |
32 | RB | 17 | Zac Stacy | StL/4 | 193 | 46 | 3.05 | 23 |
33 | RB | 18 | Andre Ellington | Ari/4 | 193 | 45 | 4.04 | 25 |
34 | WR | 13 | Pierre Garcon | Was/10 | 222 | 45 | 4.06 | 28 |
35 | QB | 2 | Drew Brees | NO/6 | 359 | 40 | 3.06 | 35 |
36 | QB | 3 | Aaron Rodgers | GB/9 | 359 | 40 | 3.02 | 31 |
37 | RB | 19 | Lamar Miller | Mia/5 | 186 | 38 | 10.05 | 23 |
38 | WR | 14 | Keenan Allen | SD/10 | 215 | 38 | 4.03 | 22 |
39 | RB | 20 | C.J. Spiller | Buf/9 | 184 | 37 | 4.01 | 27 |
40 | RB | 21 | Chris Johnson | NYJ/11 | 183 | 35 | 6.03 | 29 |
41 | RB | 22 | Ryan Mathews | SD/10 | 180 | 32 | 4.1 | 27 |
42 | RB | 23 | Toby Gerhart | Jac/11 | 179 | 31 | 6.01 | 27 |
43 | RB | 24 | Alfred Morris | Was/10 | 178 | 30 | 3.07 | 26 |
44 | RB | 25 | Pierre Thomas | NO/6 | 173 | 25 | 8.07 | 30 |
45 | RB | 26 | Ray Rice | Bal/11 | 172 | 25 | 6.09 | 27 |
46 | WR | 15 | Roddy White | Atl/9 | 201 | 25 | 5.07 | 33 |
47 | WR | 16 | Michael Floyd | Ari/4 | 201 | 24 | 6.05 | 25 |
48 | QB | 4 | Andrew Luck | Ind/10 | 342 | 23 | 5.1 | 25 |
49 | TE | 3 | Julius Thomas | Den/4 | 200 | 23 | 3.09 | 26 |
50 | WR | 17 | Percy Harvin | Sea/4 | 198 | 22 | 5.03 | 26 |
The table above represents the Top 50 players in terms of VBD. There are a few things that jump out. As we discussed, the value of studs – especially at the running back position - is immense. Notice the VBD values for the four top players at the position in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players. Who would have thought that these players would hold values almost equaling two others, who are still worth first round picks? Also, as we progress to the 50th overall player, the running backs occupy more than half of the table, and we will see this trend continue. This is why it is best to draft running backs early and often, even in PPR leagues.
Rank | Pos | PosRank | Player | Team | Points | VBD | ADP | Age |
51 | WR | 18 | Larry Fitzgerald | Ari/4 | 197 | 21 | 4.07 | 31 |
52 | WR | 19 | Victor Cruz | NYG/8 | 197 | 20 | 4.09 | 28 |
53 | WR | 20 | Wes Welker | Den/4 | 197 | 20 | 5.05 | 33 |
54 | RB | 27 | Fred Jackson | Buf/9 | 166 | 19 | 10.01 | 33 |
55 | QB | 5 | Nick Foles | Phi/7 | 338 | 19 | 7.05 | 25 |
56 | WR | 21 | Cordarrelle Patterson | Min/10 | 194 | 18 | 6.02 | 23 |
57 | QB | 6 | Matthew Stafford | Det/9 | 336 | 17 | 5.02 | 26 |
58 | WR | 22 | T.Y. Hilton | Ind/10 | 191 | 14 | 7.02 | 25 |
59 | RB | 28 | Bishop Sankey | Ten/9 | 158 | 10 | 5.04 | 22 |
60 | WR | 23 | DeSean Jackson | Was/10 | 186 | 10 | 5.08 | 28 |
61 | WR | 24 | Kendall Wright | Ten/9 | 186 | 10 | 8.01 | 25 |
62 | QB | 7 | Robert Griffin III III | Was/10 | 329 | 9 | 7.07 | 24 |
63 | RB | 29 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Oak/5 | 156 | 9 | 9.06 | 29 |
64 | QB | 8 | Tom Brady | NE/10 | 327 | 8 | 9.02 | 37 |
65 | RB | 30 | Steven Jackson | Atl/9 | 155 | 7 | 8.03 | 31 |
66 | RB | 31 | Trent Richardson | Ind/10 | 153 | 6 | 6.06 | 24 |
67 | WR | 25 | Mike Wallace | Mia/5 | 181 | 5 | 7.08 | 28 |
68 | WR | 26 | Dwayne Bowe | KC/6 | 180 | 3 | 10.1 | 30 |
69 | DEF | 1 | Seattle | Sea/4 | 154 | 3 | 10.09 | 14 |
70 | TE | 4 | Jordan Cameron | Cle/4 | 180 | 2 | 7.03 | 26 |
71 | WR | 27 | Michael Crabtree | SF/8 | 179 | 2 | 5.01 | 27 |
72 | RB | 32 | Darren Sproles | Phi/7 | 149 | 1 | 10.02 | 31 |
73 | WR | 28 | Julian Edelman | NE/10 | 178 | 1 | 7.04 | 28 |
74 | RB | 33 | Frank Gore | SF/8 | 149 | 1 | 6.07 | 31 |
75 | PK | 1 | Steve Hauschka | Sea/4 | 153 | 1 | 18.09 | 29 |
76 | WR | 29 | Reggie Wayne | Ind/10 | 177 | 0 | 9.08 | 36 |
77 | TE | 5 | Jason Witten | Dal/11 | 178 | 0 | 7.1 | 32 |
78 | PK | 2 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE/10 | 152 | 0 | 16.09 | 30 |
79 | DEF | 2 | Cincinnati | Cin/4 | 151 | 0 | 15.09 | 14 |
80 | RB | 34 | Ben Tate | Cle/4 | 148 | 0 | 5.09 | 26 |
81 | QB | 9 | Cam Newton | Car/12 | 319 | -1 | 8.02 | 25 |
82 | RB | 35 | Danny Woodhead | SD/10 | 147 | -1 | 10.04 | 29 |
83 | QB | 10 | Matt Ryan | Atl/9 | 318 | -2 | 8.05 | 29 |
84 | WR | 30 | Eric Decker | NYJ/11 | 175 | -2 | 8.1 | 27 |
85 | DEF | 3 | New England | NE/10 | 147 | -3 | 16.02 | 14 |
86 | PK | 3 | Justin Tucker | Bal/11 | 148 | -3 | 18.05 | 25 |
87 | DEF | 4 | San Francisco | SF/8 | 145 | -5 | 13.04 | 14 |
88 | TE | 6 | Greg Olsen | Car/12 | 172 | -5 | 9.05 | 29 |
89 | WR | 31 | Torrey Smith | Bal/11 | 170 | -6 | 7.01 | 25 |
90 | DEF | 5 | Chicago | Chi/9 | 143 | -7 | 21.08 | 14 |
91 | DEF | 6 | Denver | Den/4 | 142 | -7 | 14.09 | 14 |
92 | WR | 32 | Jeremy Maclin | Phi/7 | 169 | -8 | 7.06 | 26 |
93 | WR | 33 | Emmanuel Sanders | Den/4 | 169 | -8 | 8.06 | 27 |
94 | PK | 4 | Phil Dawson | SF/8 | 142 | -8 | 19.03 | 39 |
95 | PK | 5 | Matt Prater | Den/4 | 142 | -8 | 16.1 | 30 |
96 | PK | 6 | Matt Bryant | Atl/9 | 141 | -9 | 24.01 | 39 |
97 | DEF | 7 | St. Louis | StL/4 | 139 | -9 | 14.03 | 14 |
98 | WR | 34 | Marques Colston | NO/6 | 167 | -10 | 8.04 | 31 |
99 | DEF | 8 | Arizona | Ari/4 | 138 | -11 | 16.03 | 14 |
100 | PK | 7 | Dan Bailey | Dal/11 | 139 | -11 | 20.04 | 26 |
When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 100, the wide receivers pull even with the running backs, and the value at quarterback and tight end is still lagging. This is why it is acceptable to wait on the wide receiver position. There are plenty of great options after round five in a fantasy draft. As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage. For this reason, an owner who loads up on running backs early on can still get studs at the other positions through the first ten rounds. This is why the kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout plateaus.
Every league is different but this article should help you form a winning strategy in smaller PPR leagues.
Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIN, andGoogle+ so connect with me whichever is most convenient.