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Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 6, 12 team PPR Dynasty Start Up

On July 27th the Footballguys staff got together for their sixth draft of 2016. A 12 team, PPR Dynasty Start-up. Our Chad Parsons provides an in-depth unbiased strategy summary of each team's draft. 

On July 27th, the Footballguys staff completed a 12-team PPR dynasty startup mock draft. Below is the league's scoring and bylaws. 

League Parameters

  • 12 teams
  • 20 roster spots
  • Starting Lineup
    • 1 quarterback
    • 2 running backs
    • 3 wide receivers
    • 1 tight end
    • 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
    • 1 team defense

League Scoring

  • Offensive Players
    • 4 points - passing touchdown
    • 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
    • 0.05 points - passing yard
    • 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
  • Place Kickers
    • 3 points - field goal from 0 to 39 yards
    • 4 points - field goal from 40 to 49 yards
    • 5 points - field goal from 50 to 99 yards
  • Team Defense
    • 6 points - touchdown
    • 2 points - turnover forced
    • 2 points - safety
    • 1 point - sack

The Draft Order

The draft order was randomly generated. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft, pick by pick

1. Jason Wood
2. Scott Bischoff
3. Ari Ingel
4. James Brimacombe
5. Danny Tuccitto
6. Chris Kuczynski
7. Matt Waldman
8. Devin Knotts
9. Daniel Simpkins
10. Cian Fahey
11. Bear Heiser
12. Andy Hicks 

Starting with Jason Wood from the 1.01 spot, we will go over each person's selections in the mock draft.

Jason Wood - Slot 1

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.01 1 WR Odell Beckham NYG
2.12 24 RB Doug Martin TBB
3.01 25 WR Jarvis Landry MIA
4.12 48 RB Duke Johnson CLE
5.01 49 WR Michael Floyd ARI
6.12 72 QB Jameis Winston TBB
7.01 73 RB Latavius Murray OAK
8.12 96 TE Eric Ebron DET
9.01 97 RB Jordan Howard CHI
10.12 120 WR Torrey Smith SFO
11.01 121 RB DeAndre Washington OAK
12.12 144 QB Kirk Cousins WAS
13.01 145 WR Chris Hogan NEP
14.12 168 TE Antonio Gates SDC
15.01 169 WR Mike Thomas RAM
16.12 192 WR Victor Cruz NYG
17.01 193 WR Terrance Williams DAL
18.12 216 Def Oakland Raiders OAK
19.01 217 RB Alfred Morris DAL
20.12 240 Def New England Patriots NEP

Overall Strategy

Balanced, RB-Heavy

Best Pick

Eric Ebron, 8.12, TE9. Round 1 tight ends drafted by the NFL are as close to locks for fantasy starter production in their career as prospects can get. Ebron enters Year 3 with Calvin Johnson retired and a golden opportunity for a target upswing. At TE9, Ebron’s acquisition price is closer to his floor than ceiling.

Worst Pick

Doug Martin, 2.12, RB8. Eight running backs in the first two rounds is a high number compared to most stock PPR dynasty startups this offseason. Martin is coming off a career year, but a capped projected ceiling going forward with pass-catching raven Charles Sims in Tampa Bay, a bevy of red zone weapons for developing Jameis Winston, and exiting a running back’s historical peak age window of production.

Evaluation

While Latavius Murray was a lackluster talent selection at 7.01, Wood locked up DeAndre Washington in Round 11 to back up the Oakland incumbent starter for the short-term. Jarvis Landry at 3.01 is buying on the high side of his spectrum, but his floor will be needed with Wood drafting only three receivers in the opening nine rounds of the draft. Jordan Howard and Eric Ebron are Wood’s key mid-round upside bets for a roster value uptick heading into 2017.

Scott Bischoff - Slot 2

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.02 2 WR Antonio Brown PIT
2.11 23 RB Devonta Freeman ATL
3.02 26 WR Donte Moncrief IND
4.11 47 WR Laquon Treadwell MIN
5.02 50 WR Corey Coleman CLE
6.11 71 RB T.J. Yeldon JAC
7.02 74 QB Blake Bortles JAC
8.11 95 WR Breshad Perriman BAL
9.02 98 RB Tevin Coleman ATL
10.11 119 TE Dwayne Allen IND
11.02 122 RB Theo Riddick DET
12.11 143 RB Frank Gore IND
13.02 146 QB Carson Palmer ARI
14.11 167 RB LeGarrette Blount NEP
15.02 170 WR Braxton Miller HOU
16.11 191 WR Jamison Crowder WAS
17.02 194 TE Zach Miller CHI
18.11 215 Def Los Angeles Rams RAM
19.02 218 Def Philadelphia Eagles PHI
20.11 239 RB C.J. Spiller NOS

Overall Strategy

Embrace the Discounts

Best Pick

Corey Coleman, 5.02, WR29. The draft coming after the Josh Gordon reinstatement news likely affected Coleman’s standing in this league. Typically in Round 4, Coleman is a hyper-athletic, strong producer with Round 1 draft pedigree. As WR29, Coleman offers more upside than downside as Bischoff’s WR4. Gordon is no lock to be the clear lead receiver in Cleveland even if he stays clean under high-level substance abuse program scrutiny going forward.

Worst Pick

Devonta Freeman, 2.11, RB7. Outside of Freeman’s electric stretch as the best running back in fantasy early in 2015, he has been a pedestrian producer to-date based on his opportunities. Tevin Coleman is slated to be more involved in 2016 as a Day 2 selection. Freeman is more of a ‘try hard’ back than overt talent, adding long-term insecurity for Bischoff’s second selection for his dynasty squad. Drafting Coleman in Round 9 offers some insulation with Atlanta’s other running back of note.

Evaluation

Bischoff made a variety of well-reasoned running back bets in this draft. LeGarrette Blount is still slated as the preferred power bank in New England. T.J. Yeldon is offering a substantial discount compared to pre-Chris Ivory signing prices. Theo Riddick is the best pass-catcher in Detroit’s backfield. C.J. Spiller was a final round pick due to a lost 2015 season. Frank Gore still has fringe RB1 potential with Andrew Luck back under center. Bischoff also found Dwayne Allen and Zach Miller, Week 1 starters on above-average passing games, outside the top-110 at tight end. Hitting on Donte Moncrief, LaQuon Treadwell, or Breshad Perriman will be a key boost to Bischoff’s receiver corps.

Ari Ingel - Slot 3

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.03 3 WR Julio Jones ATL
2.10 22 WR T.Y. Hilton IND
3.03 27 RB Mark Ingram NOS
4.10 46 WR Golden Tate DET
5.03 51 WR John Brown ARI
6.10 70 RB Jay Ajayi MIA
7.03 75 WR Eric Decker NYJ
8.10 94 TE Coby Fleener NOS
9.03 99 WR Martavis Bryant PIT
10.10 118 RB Wendell Smallwood PHI
11.03 123 TE Hunter Henry SDC
12.10 142 QB Matthew Stafford DET
13.03 147 QB Matt Ryan ATL
14.10 166 RB Jonathan Williams BUF
15.03 171 WR Kendall Wright TEN
16.10 190 RB Shane Vereen NYG
17.03 195 Def Arizona Cardinals ARI
18.10 214 TE Jeff Heuerman DEN
19.03 219 Def New York Jets NYJ
20.10 238 RB James White NEP

Overall Strategy

The QB-RB Committee Approach

Best Pick

John Brown, 5.03, WR30. Brown has already been productive, despite sharing the Arizona passing game with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Fitzgerald is well into his 30s and entering club option years of his contract beyond 2016. Floyd is a free agent after 2016. At WR30, Brown offers plenty of upside as Bruce Arians’ T.Y. Hilton-type in Arizona.

Worst Pick

Jay Ajayi, 6.10, RB21. The Dolphins make multiple moves to outright replace Ajayi as the de facto starter this offseason. The final move was bringing in Arian Foster of late. Even if Round 3 pick Kenyan Drake is not a long-term threat and Foster is a one-year rental, Ajayi will have another uphill climb next offseason to dodge significant long-term competition.

Evaluation

Ingel took a lottery ticket approach to running back with only Mark Ingram locked into a lead role for 2016. The variance is high as Wendell Smallwood, Jay Ajayi, and James White could be key performers with an injury in front of them. On the flip side, Ingel has a sturdy collection of producers at wide receiver with Eric Decker arguably his WR4 with John Brown also in the mix. Hitting on a running back or two in the short-term will be the key to competing, but Ingel’s wide receiver stable offers market value insulation.

James Brimacombe - Slot 4

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.04 4 RB Todd Gurley RAM
2.09 21 RB Adrian Peterson MIN
3.04 28 WR Brandon Marshall NYJ
4.09 45 RB Jamaal Charles KCC
5.04 52 WR Jordan Matthews PHI
6.09 69 TE Delanie Walker TEN
7.04 76 RB Devontae Booker DEN
8.09 93 QB Jared Goff RAM
9.04 100 QB Marcus Mariota TEN
10.09 117 TE Julius Thomas JAC
11.04 124 WR Tavon Austin RAM
12.09 141 TE Jimmy Graham SEA
13.04 148 QB Carson Wentz PHI
14.09 165 WR Chris Conley KCC
15.04 172 WR Vincent Jackson TBB
16.09 189 WR Pierre Garcon WAS
17.04 196 Def Denver Broncos DEN
18.09 213 WR Rueben Randle PHI
19.04 220 RB Cameron Artis-Payne CAR
20.09 237 WR Mike Wallace BAL

Overall Strategy

Modified Win Now

Best Pick

Jordan Matthews, 5.04, WR31. In most dynasty startups this offseason, Matthews is gone by the mid-third round. With an often-overlooked first two years of production and a relentless work ethic, Matthews has the look of a long-term fantasy producer. After hitting running back with 3-of-4 previous selections, Brimacombe hit a home run with Matthews in Round 5.

Worst Pick

Jared Goff, 8.09, QB7. With quarterbacks understandably slow off the board in this start-1QB draft, Brimacombe paired Goff and Mariota, both in the top-8 of the position, at the 8/9 turn. Derek Carr of the young signal-callers and Tom Brady and Drew Brees of the older producers were notably still available. High-upside in a start-1QB league is paramount to seeing a return on investment at the position. Despite two top-100 selections at quarterback, Brimacombe is still not likely to log difference-making positional production.

Evaluation

Three quarterbacks in the first 13 rounds, two in the top-100, handcuff a team’s initial depth in a start-1QB format. Brimacombe is also banking on two older running backs – albeit historical talents – Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson in the first four rounds. If Brandon Marshall, Delanie Walker, Jimmy Graham, or those running backs decline sooner than expected the outlook erodes swiftly for Team Brimacombe.

Danny Tuccitto - Slot 5

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.05 5 WR Allen Robinson JAC
2.08 20 RB Lamar Miller HOU
3.05 29 WR Randall Cobb GBP
4.08 44 RB Carlos Hyde SFO
5.05 53 WR Sterling Shepard NYG
6.08 68 WR Phillip Dorsett IND
7.05 77 RB Derrick Henry TEN
8.08 92 TE Zach Ertz PHI
9.05 101 WR Markus Wheaton PIT
10.08 116 QB Drew Brees NOS
11.05 125 RB DeAngelo Williams PIT
12.08 140 WR Nelson Agholor PHI
13.05 149 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins TBB
14.08 164 RB Justin Forsett BAL
15.05 173 QB Brock Osweiler HOU
16.08 188 RB Rashad Jennings NYG
17.05 197 WR Albert Wilson KCC
18.08 212 Def Kansas City Chiefs KCC
19.05 221 RB Mike Gillislee BUF
20.08 236 TE Vance McDonald SFO

Overall Strategy

Dominate Backfields

Best Pick

Allen Robinson, 1.05, WR4. Robinson is on a historic track with productive 21 and 22-year-old seasons on his NFL profile. Securing Robinson after Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Todd Gurley in mid-Round 1 is a best case scenario for Tuccitto to begin his dynasty team-building.

Worst Pick

Carlos Hyde, 4.08, RB13. No picks by Tuccitto stand out as overt reaches. Even Hyde in a vacuum as RB13 is reasonable and possesses plenty of short-term upside. However, Hyde is a high-variance pick within the top-50 as the 49ers are not a projected good offense and the next Hyde injury will shade his dynasty market appeal, capping any long-term turn-around. LaQuon Treadwell and Corey Coleman, both consensus top-4 rookie picks this year, were available to Tuccitto at 4.08, a return Hyde is not drawing in existing dynasty league trade markets as more sturdy – and insulated – long-term assets.

Evaluation

While on the younger side overall, Tuccitto’s roster has championship upside in 2016. Carlos Hyde, Zach Ertz, Lamar Miller, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Randall Cobb all can tilt fantasy leagues through their upside this season. However, all four have a wide range of dynasty value over the next five months if they fail to meet expectations. DeAngelo Williams early in the year and Derrick Henry later in the year (or if DeMarco Murray should falter) offer running back upside as well.

Chris Kuczyski - Slot 6

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.06 6 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL
2.07 19 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI
3.06 30 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN
4.07 43 WR Jordy Nelson GBP
5.06 54 WR Doug Baldwin SEA
6.07 67 RB Jeremy Hill CIN
7.06 78 TE Greg Olsen CAR
8.07 91 RB Danny Woodhead SDC
9.06 102 QB Derek Carr OAK
10.07 115 WR Will Fuller HOU
11.06 126 WR Tyler Boyd CIN
12.07 139 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT
13.06 150 RB Chris Ivory JAC
14.07 163 TE Martellus Bennett NEP
15.06 174 RB Josh Ferguson IND
16.07 187 RB Bilal Powell NYJ
17.06 198 RB Charcandrick West KCC
18.07 211 Def Houston Texans HOU
19.06 222 WR Kenny Bell TBB
20.07 235 RB Shaun Draughn SFO

Overall Strategy

Short-Term Upside Betting

Best Pick

Will Fuller, 10.07, WR55. Fuller’s stock has been beaten to a pulp this offseason despite possessing 4.3x speed, quality collegiate production, and Round 1 pedigree as the second receiver off the board in the 2016 NFL Draft. After Kuczynski filled out his entire starting lineup, Fuller is the quintessential long-term asset to stash on the bench.

Worst Pick

Jeremy Hill, 6.07, RB20. Jeremy Hill was once a Round 2 startup pick following his rookie season. Since then, Hill has logged a ho-hum season and Giovani Bernard has signed a long-term deal in Cincinnati. Hill is a straight-line runner needing high volume, goal line opportunities, and quality blocking.

Evaluation

Kuczynski made plenty of short-term bets from Chris Ivory and Danny Woodhead at running back to Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, and Greg Olsen in the passing game. Taking Ezekiel Elliott at 1.06 was a luxury, but combined with a few older bets Kuczynski is a 2016 title contender. However, Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson are tenuous bets to maintain their purchase price by market value into the 2017 offseason. Future rookie picks and mining running back value behind Ezekiel Elliott will be critical going forward.

Matt Waldman - Slot 7

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.07 7 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU
2.06 18 QB Russell Wilson SEA
3.07 31 WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR
4.06 42 WR Tyler Lockett SEA
5.07 55 TE Travis Kelce KCC
6.06 66 RB Ameer Abdullah DET
7.07 79 RB Matt Forte NYJ
8.06 90 RB Isaiah Crowell CLE
9.07 103 RB DeMarco Murray TEN
10.06 114 WR Travis Benjamin SDC
11.07 127 WR Leonte Carroo MIA
12.06 138 WR Bruce Ellington SFO
13.07 151 QB Philip Rivers SDC
14.06 162 RB Spencer Ware KCC
15.07 175 WR Jaelen Strong HOU
16.06 186 QB Brett Hundley GBP
17.07 199 TE Charles Clay BUF
18.06 210 Def Carolina Panthers CAR
19.07 223 WR Seth Roberts OAK
20.06 234 TE Virgil Green DEN

Overall Strategy

Balanced Approach

Best Pick

Leonte Carroo, 11.07, WR59. Carroo has a terrific metric profile and a strong value in the 10-15 overall range of rookie drafts. Carroo was selected after Wendell Smallwood, Hunter Henry, Jordan Howard, and Paul Perkins of note among the 2016 rookie crop. Carroo can play inside and on the perimeter as a hedge against DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry in the Miami passing game.

Worst Pick

Travis Kelce, 5.07, TE3. Kelce has finished at TE8 and TE9 the past two seasons and resides in a limited passing offense in Kansas City for the time being. Paying TE3 prices limits any upside for Kelce to turn a profit at a historically unpredictable season-to-season position to shoot the needle for upside. Josh Doctson of note was available as Kelce does not return mid-Round 1 in existing leagues. Without tight end premium dynamics, Kelce was a value-loss in Round 5 as the third tight end off the board.

Evaluation

Taking Russell Wilson as the first quarterback off the board (Round 2), Travis Kelce as TE3, and older backs Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray within the first 10 rounds leaves positional value on the draft table. Philip Rivers in Round 13, with Russell Wilson already rostered, was another luxury selection. Despite four running backs drafted in the first nine rounds, Waldman has a tenuous outlook without a cornerstone asset in their prime or a blue-chip talent.

Devin Knotts - Slot 8

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.08 8 TE Rob Gronkowski NEP
2.05 17 WR Keenan Allen SDC
3.08 32 QB Cam Newton CAR
4.05 41 WR Josh Gordon CLE
5.08 56 WR Allen Hurns JAC
6.05 65 RB LeSean McCoy BUF
7.08 80 RB Melvin Gordon SDC
8.05 89 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI
9.08 104 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR
10.05 113 WR Mohamed Sanu ATL
11.08 128 WR Willie Snead NOS
12.05 137 WR Davante Adams GBP
13.08 152 QB Eli Manning NYG
14.05 161 TE Maxx Williams BAL
15.08 176 QB Robert Griffin III CLE
16.05 185 WR Robert Woods BUF
17.08 200 WR Ted Ginn Jr CAR
18.05 209 RB Darren Sproles PHI
19.08 224 WR Jermaine Kearse SEA
20.05 233 Def Buffalo Bills BUF

Overall Strategy

Lean-and-Mean Running Backs

Best Pick

Keenan Allen, 2.05, WR12. Allen has been a hyper-productive receiver early in his career and a quality dynasty asset. After Rob Gronkowski in Round 1, Knotts still found a top receiver with Allen in Round 2. With Philip Rivers, Allen has a quality floor for the foreseeable future in San Diego.

Worst Pick

Josh Gordon, 4.05, WR23. Gordon is back on the radar with his reinstatement. However, Gordon remains a considerable risk on two fronts. First, Gordon is deep into the NFL substance abuse program, a status which will not change going forward in his career. Secondly, Gordon was not an impact player the last time on the field. With a top-50 selection, Gordon offers substantial risk where top young players and sturdier production bets were available.

Evaluation

Outside of Keenan Allen in Round 2, Knotts’ dynasty haul was close to the antithesis of my recommended team-building strategy. Knotts took just four running backs overall – in a start-2RB mandatory setting – with all having substantial risk. Cam Newton and Rob Gronkowski offer stability, but at non-premium positions in this format. Beyond Keenan Allen, Knotts’ wide receivers are dicey long-term projections.

Daniel Simpkins - Slot 9

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.09 9 WR Mike Evans TBB
2.04 16 WR Brandin Cooks NOS
3.09 33 WR Kevin White CHI
4.04 40 WR DeVante Parker MIA
5.09 57 WR Josh Doctson WAS
6.04 64 WR Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
7.09 81 RB Kenneth Dixon BAL
8.04 88 WR Devin Funchess CAR
9.09 105 RB Charles Sims TBB
10.04 112 RB Jerick McKinnon MIN
11.09 129 TE Austin Hooper ATL
12.04 136 WR Jeff Janis GBP
13.09 153 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA
14.04 160 QB Paxton Lynch DEN
15.09 177 RB Tyler Ervin HOU
16.04 184 RB Keith Marshall WAS
17.09 201 RB Zach Zenner DET
18.04 208 RB Daniel Lasco NOS
19.09 225 TE Will Tye NYG
20.04 232 Def Tampa Bay Buccaneers TBB

Overall Strategy

Extend the Runway

Best Pick

Devin Funchess, 8.04, WR46. Funchess flashed as a 21-year-old rookie despite his head swimming by reports last season. With Cam Newton and growing into the wide receiver position (after plenty of time at tight end in college), Funchess has impact upside with a well-balanced metric profile. Down Simpkins’ wide receiver depth chart, Funchess is the prototypical talent stash to turn a strong dynasty roster into a dominant one for future seasons.

Worst Pick

Daniel Lasco, 18.04, RB65. As a former UTHDynasty.com writer possessing a like-minded dynasty approach, there are few picks to quibble with of Simpkins. Lasco is my least favorite. Despite the minimal cost, Lasco is a fringe talent for the NFL and the short-term situation in New Orleans is not optimal behind Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower, and C.J. Spiller looking to rebound as a change-of-pace option. With short rosters, Lasco is likely to be back on the waiver wire before Week 1.

Evaluation

By stacking wide receivers with his first six selections, Simpkins built a long runaway to see how his running backs pan out and address tight end if needed to contend. Simpkins is unlikely to compete for a title in 2016 unless he hits the running back jackpot with projected starters’ injuries. However, the future is bright with Simpkins’ enviable wide receiver corps until the rest of the roster catches up.

Cian Fahey - Slot 10

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.10 10 RB Le\'Veon Bell PIT
2.03 15 WR Sammy Watkins BUF
3.10 34 QB Aaron Rodgers GBP
4.03 39 RB C.J. Anderson DEN
5.10 58 WR Stefon Diggs MIN
6.03 63 TE Tyler Eifert CIN
7.10 82 WR Michael Thomas NOS
8.03 87 RB C.J. Prosise SEA
9.10 106 RB Paul Perkins NYG
10.03 111 TE Ladarius Green PIT
11.10 130 WR J.J. Nelson ARI
12.03 135 RB Karlos Williams BUF
13.10 154 TE Clive Walford OAK
14.03 159 QB Tyrod Taylor BUF
15.10 178 Def Minnesota Vikings MIN
16.03 183 WR Justin Hardy ATL
17.10 202 WR Kenny Britt RAM
18.03 207 WR Malcolm Mitchell NEP
19.10 226 WR Devin Smith NYJ
20.03 231 RB Chris Johnson ARI

Overall Strategy

Playing with Wide Receiver Fire

Best Pick

C.J. Prosise, 8.03, RB30. Prosise is a big and athletic back with passing chops. Amidst a rookie class which generally fell down the NFL Draft board, Prosise was one of the few Day 2 or better selections. At a minimum, Prosise carves a PPR-centric role initially with upside to grow into a three-down option behind remedial talent Thomas Rawls in Seattle.

Worst Pick

C.J. Anderson, 4.03, RB12. At 25 years old, Anderson has yet to string together a long run of production in the NFL. The Peyton Manning factor in Denver is gone to optimize his touches. Devontae Booker was drafted as an NFL-ready three-down back by the Broncos this offseason. Anderson is a ho-hum long-term talent and at 4.03 options like DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockett, and top wide receivers from the 2016 class were available.

Evaluation

Fahey’s wide receiver position is a risky group with little behind Sammy Watkins. Three tight ends in the first 13 rounds was excessive considering the format. Late-round wide receivers are historically a low-probability bet, requiring a very high bar to prove profitable; Fahey four of his last five selections on receiver. If Fahey hits on his running backs in the short-term, he can contend. However, an injury or two (or subpar play) turns his squad into a murky long-term projection.

Bear Heiser - Slot 11

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.11 11 WR A.J. Green CIN
2.02 14 WR Dez Bryant DAL
3.11 35 RB Thomas Rawls SEA
4.02 38 RB Eddie Lacy GBP
5.11 59 WR Jeremy Maclin KCC
6.02 62 RB Dion Lewis NEP
7.11 83 WR Marvin Jones DET
8.02 86 WR Julian Edelman NEP
9.11 107 RB Jeremy Langford CHI
10.02 110 TE Gary Barnidge CLE
11.11 131 QB Tom Brady NEP
12.02 134 WR Kamar Aiken BAL
13.11 155 QB Jimmy Garoppolo NEP
14.02 158 RB Javorius Allen BAL
15.11 179 WR Tajae Sharpe TEN
16.02 182 RB Alex Collins SEA
17.11 203 WR Rishard Matthews TEN
18.02 206 TE Jared Cook GBP
19.11 227 Def Cincinnati Bengals CIN
20.02 230 WR Steve Smith BAL

Overall Strategy

Stacking Strength

Best Pick

Tom Brady, 11.11, QB11. With a contending view, Brady as QB11 makes a ton of sense. Drew Brees and the main high-upside older quarterbacks were already off the board and Heiser had drafted a more win-now roster through 10 rounds. However, Heiser did use 13.11 on Jimmy Garoppolo, returning some of the value gained in the short-roster format unless he develops into a quality starter in addition to Brady down the line.

Worst Pick

Thomas Rawls, 3.11, RB10. Rawls was a two-down option even during his peak production window as a 2015 rookie. Since then, Rawls has sustained a serious – still recovering – injury and Seattle brought in a host of 2016 rookies, including Day 2 selection C.J. Prosise. Rawls is a risky dynasty investment, especially with a top-40 startup pick.

Evaluation

Heiser may have the oldest core roster in the league with wide receivers in their later 20s and 30s, Gary Barnidge as his starting tight end, and Tom Brady at QB1. Some will underperform or fall off in 2016, making the current year critical to Heiser’s outlook. Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and Dion Lewis all have RB1 upside, but tenuous dynasty value at running back.

Andy Hicks - Slot 12

Pick Overall Pos Player Team
1.12 12 RB David Johnson ARI
2.01 13 WR Amari Cooper OAK
3.12 36 QB Andrew Luck IND
4.01 37 TE Jordan Reed WAS
5.12 60 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN
6.01 61 RB Giovani Bernard CIN
7.12 84 RB Matt Jones WAS
8.01 85 WR DeSean Jackson WAS
9.12 108 WR Michael Crabtree OAK
10.01 109 WR Sammie Coates PIT
11.12 132 RB Arian Foster MIA
12.01 133 RB Kenyan Drake MIA
13.12 156 TE Jordan Cameron MIA
14.01 157 QB Andy Dalton CIN
15.12 180 Def Seattle Seahawks SEA
16.01 181 QB Teddy Bridgewater MIN
17.12 204 RB Ryan Mathews PHI
18.01 205 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN
19.12 228 Def Jacksonville Jaguars JAC
20.01 229 WR Pharoh Cooper RAM

Overall Strategy

The Balanced Build

Best Pick

Amari Cooper, WR8, 2.01. Cooper was the best value in the first two rounds by my view. Cooper regularly goes in the top-8, deservedly so, in dynasty startup drafts. Hicks nabbed the second-year receiver after four running backs, plus Rob Gronkowski and A.J. Green uncharacteristically were drafted in Round 1. Cooper is an ideal building block to long-term success.

Worst Pick

Jordan Reed, TE2, 4.12. There is no wiggle room with highly-drafted tight ends. Reed had a career year in 2015 as many forgot about his concussion red flags heading into this offseason. The next concussion for Reed will torpedo his market value plus Washington’s passing game (read: Kirk Cousins) had a Nick Foles-like hot streak in 2015, which is a regression unit overall in 2016. Early Round 1 rookies from 2016 were available in this zone, a better long-term bet to maintain market value over the next 12 months. Reed in the top-50 is topped out, without risk factored in, as an asset.

Evaluation

Despite drafting Andrew Luck, Hicks went back to the quarterback pool with selections of Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater in the later rounds. With only 20 roster spots, Hicks did not maximize his roster with three quarterbacks, two defenses, and three tight ends, where he drafted Jordan Reed early as well. As a result, Hicks has little depth at wide receiver. Running back is a clear strength of the roster and a potential trading chip in-season.

 

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com