On July 27th, the Footballguys staff completed a 12-team PPR dynasty startup mock draft. Below is the league's scoring and bylaws.
League Parameters
- 12 teams
- 20 roster spots
- Starting Lineup
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 3 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
- 1 team defense
League Scoring
- Offensive Players
- 4 points - passing touchdown
- 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
- 0.05 points - passing yard
- 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
- Place Kickers
- 3 points - field goal from 0 to 39 yards
- 4 points - field goal from 40 to 49 yards
- 5 points - field goal from 50 to 99 yards
- Team Defense
- 6 points - touchdown
- 2 points - turnover forced
- 2 points - safety
- 1 point - sack
The Draft Order
The draft order was randomly generated. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft, pick by pick
1. Jason Wood
2. Scott Bischoff
3. Ari Ingel
4. James Brimacombe
5. Danny Tuccitto
6. Chris Kuczynski
7. Matt Waldman
8. Devin Knotts
9. Daniel Simpkins
10. Cian Fahey
11. Bear Heiser
12. Andy Hicks
Starting with Jason Wood from the 1.01 spot, we will go over each person's selections in the mock draft.
Jason Wood - Slot 1
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.01 | 1 | WR | Odell Beckham | NYG |
2.12 | 24 | RB | Doug Martin | TBB |
3.01 | 25 | WR | Jarvis Landry | MIA |
4.12 | 48 | RB | Duke Johnson | CLE |
5.01 | 49 | WR | Michael Floyd | ARI |
6.12 | 72 | QB | Jameis Winston | TBB |
7.01 | 73 | RB | Latavius Murray | OAK |
8.12 | 96 | TE | Eric Ebron | DET |
9.01 | 97 | RB | Jordan Howard | CHI |
10.12 | 120 | WR | Torrey Smith | SFO |
11.01 | 121 | RB | DeAndre Washington | OAK |
12.12 | 144 | QB | Kirk Cousins | WAS |
13.01 | 145 | WR | Chris Hogan | NEP |
14.12 | 168 | TE | Antonio Gates | SDC |
15.01 | 169 | WR | Mike Thomas | RAM |
16.12 | 192 | WR | Victor Cruz | NYG |
17.01 | 193 | WR | Terrance Williams | DAL |
18.12 | 216 | Def | Oakland Raiders | OAK |
19.01 | 217 | RB | Alfred Morris | DAL |
20.12 | 240 | Def | New England Patriots | NEP |
Overall Strategy
Balanced, RB-Heavy
Best Pick
Eric Ebron, 8.12, TE9. Round 1 tight ends drafted by the NFL are as close to locks for fantasy starter production in their career as prospects can get. Ebron enters Year 3 with Calvin Johnson retired and a golden opportunity for a target upswing. At TE9, Ebron’s acquisition price is closer to his floor than ceiling.
Worst Pick
Doug Martin, 2.12, RB8. Eight running backs in the first two rounds is a high number compared to most stock PPR dynasty startups this offseason. Martin is coming off a career year, but a capped projected ceiling going forward with pass-catching raven Charles Sims in Tampa Bay, a bevy of red zone weapons for developing Jameis Winston, and exiting a running back’s historical peak age window of production.
Evaluation
While Latavius Murray was a lackluster talent selection at 7.01, Wood locked up DeAndre Washington in Round 11 to back up the Oakland incumbent starter for the short-term. Jarvis Landry at 3.01 is buying on the high side of his spectrum, but his floor will be needed with Wood drafting only three receivers in the opening nine rounds of the draft. Jordan Howard and Eric Ebron are Wood’s key mid-round upside bets for a roster value uptick heading into 2017.
Scott Bischoff - Slot 2
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.02 | 2 | WR | Antonio Brown | PIT |
2.11 | 23 | RB | Devonta Freeman | ATL |
3.02 | 26 | WR | Donte Moncrief | IND |
4.11 | 47 | WR | Laquon Treadwell | MIN |
5.02 | 50 | WR | Corey Coleman | CLE |
6.11 | 71 | RB | T.J. Yeldon | JAC |
7.02 | 74 | QB | Blake Bortles | JAC |
8.11 | 95 | WR | Breshad Perriman | BAL |
9.02 | 98 | RB | Tevin Coleman | ATL |
10.11 | 119 | TE | Dwayne Allen | IND |
11.02 | 122 | RB | Theo Riddick | DET |
12.11 | 143 | RB | Frank Gore | IND |
13.02 | 146 | QB | Carson Palmer | ARI |
14.11 | 167 | RB | LeGarrette Blount | NEP |
15.02 | 170 | WR | Braxton Miller | HOU |
16.11 | 191 | WR | Jamison Crowder | WAS |
17.02 | 194 | TE | Zach Miller | CHI |
18.11 | 215 | Def | Los Angeles Rams | RAM |
19.02 | 218 | Def | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI |
20.11 | 239 | RB | C.J. Spiller | NOS |
Overall Strategy
Embrace the Discounts
Best Pick
Corey Coleman, 5.02, WR29. The draft coming after the Josh Gordon reinstatement news likely affected Coleman’s standing in this league. Typically in Round 4, Coleman is a hyper-athletic, strong producer with Round 1 draft pedigree. As WR29, Coleman offers more upside than downside as Bischoff’s WR4. Gordon is no lock to be the clear lead receiver in Cleveland even if he stays clean under high-level substance abuse program scrutiny going forward.
Worst Pick
Devonta Freeman, 2.11, RB7. Outside of Freeman’s electric stretch as the best running back in fantasy early in 2015, he has been a pedestrian producer to-date based on his opportunities. Tevin Coleman is slated to be more involved in 2016 as a Day 2 selection. Freeman is more of a ‘try hard’ back than overt talent, adding long-term insecurity for Bischoff’s second selection for his dynasty squad. Drafting Coleman in Round 9 offers some insulation with Atlanta’s other running back of note.
Evaluation
Bischoff made a variety of well-reasoned running back bets in this draft. LeGarrette Blount is still slated as the preferred power bank in New England. T.J. Yeldon is offering a substantial discount compared to pre-Chris Ivory signing prices. Theo Riddick is the best pass-catcher in Detroit’s backfield. C.J. Spiller was a final round pick due to a lost 2015 season. Frank Gore still has fringe RB1 potential with Andrew Luck back under center. Bischoff also found Dwayne Allen and Zach Miller, Week 1 starters on above-average passing games, outside the top-110 at tight end. Hitting on Donte Moncrief, LaQuon Treadwell, or Breshad Perriman will be a key boost to Bischoff’s receiver corps.
Ari Ingel - Slot 3
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.03 | 3 | WR | Julio Jones | ATL |
2.10 | 22 | WR | T.Y. Hilton | IND |
3.03 | 27 | RB | Mark Ingram | NOS |
4.10 | 46 | WR | Golden Tate | DET |
5.03 | 51 | WR | John Brown | ARI |
6.10 | 70 | RB | Jay Ajayi | MIA |
7.03 | 75 | WR | Eric Decker | NYJ |
8.10 | 94 | TE | Coby Fleener | NOS |
9.03 | 99 | WR | Martavis Bryant | PIT |
10.10 | 118 | RB | Wendell Smallwood | PHI |
11.03 | 123 | TE | Hunter Henry | SDC |
12.10 | 142 | QB | Matthew Stafford | DET |
13.03 | 147 | QB | Matt Ryan | ATL |
14.10 | 166 | RB | Jonathan Williams | BUF |
15.03 | 171 | WR | Kendall Wright | TEN |
16.10 | 190 | RB | Shane Vereen | NYG |
17.03 | 195 | Def | Arizona Cardinals | ARI |
18.10 | 214 | TE | Jeff Heuerman | DEN |
19.03 | 219 | Def | New York Jets | NYJ |
20.10 | 238 | RB | James White | NEP |
Overall Strategy
The QB-RB Committee Approach
Best Pick
John Brown, 5.03, WR30. Brown has already been productive, despite sharing the Arizona passing game with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Fitzgerald is well into his 30s and entering club option years of his contract beyond 2016. Floyd is a free agent after 2016. At WR30, Brown offers plenty of upside as Bruce Arians’ T.Y. Hilton-type in Arizona.
Worst Pick
Jay Ajayi, 6.10, RB21. The Dolphins make multiple moves to outright replace Ajayi as the de facto starter this offseason. The final move was bringing in Arian Foster of late. Even if Round 3 pick Kenyan Drake is not a long-term threat and Foster is a one-year rental, Ajayi will have another uphill climb next offseason to dodge significant long-term competition.
Evaluation
Ingel took a lottery ticket approach to running back with only Mark Ingram locked into a lead role for 2016. The variance is high as Wendell Smallwood, Jay Ajayi, and James White could be key performers with an injury in front of them. On the flip side, Ingel has a sturdy collection of producers at wide receiver with Eric Decker arguably his WR4 with John Brown also in the mix. Hitting on a running back or two in the short-term will be the key to competing, but Ingel’s wide receiver stable offers market value insulation.
James Brimacombe - Slot 4
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.04 | 4 | RB | Todd Gurley | RAM |
2.09 | 21 | RB | Adrian Peterson | MIN |
3.04 | 28 | WR | Brandon Marshall | NYJ |
4.09 | 45 | RB | Jamaal Charles | KCC |
5.04 | 52 | WR | Jordan Matthews | PHI |
6.09 | 69 | TE | Delanie Walker | TEN |
7.04 | 76 | RB | Devontae Booker | DEN |
8.09 | 93 | QB | Jared Goff | RAM |
9.04 | 100 | QB | Marcus Mariota | TEN |
10.09 | 117 | TE | Julius Thomas | JAC |
11.04 | 124 | WR | Tavon Austin | RAM |
12.09 | 141 | TE | Jimmy Graham | SEA |
13.04 | 148 | QB | Carson Wentz | PHI |
14.09 | 165 | WR | Chris Conley | KCC |
15.04 | 172 | WR | Vincent Jackson | TBB |
16.09 | 189 | WR | Pierre Garcon | WAS |
17.04 | 196 | Def | Denver Broncos | DEN |
18.09 | 213 | WR | Rueben Randle | PHI |
19.04 | 220 | RB | Cameron Artis-Payne | CAR |
20.09 | 237 | WR | Mike Wallace | BAL |
Overall Strategy
Modified Win Now
Best Pick
Jordan Matthews, 5.04, WR31. In most dynasty startups this offseason, Matthews is gone by the mid-third round. With an often-overlooked first two years of production and a relentless work ethic, Matthews has the look of a long-term fantasy producer. After hitting running back with 3-of-4 previous selections, Brimacombe hit a home run with Matthews in Round 5.
Worst Pick
Jared Goff, 8.09, QB7. With quarterbacks understandably slow off the board in this start-1QB draft, Brimacombe paired Goff and Mariota, both in the top-8 of the position, at the 8/9 turn. Derek Carr of the young signal-callers and Tom Brady and Drew Brees of the older producers were notably still available. High-upside in a start-1QB league is paramount to seeing a return on investment at the position. Despite two top-100 selections at quarterback, Brimacombe is still not likely to log difference-making positional production.
Evaluation
Three quarterbacks in the first 13 rounds, two in the top-100, handcuff a team’s initial depth in a start-1QB format. Brimacombe is also banking on two older running backs – albeit historical talents – Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson in the first four rounds. If Brandon Marshall, Delanie Walker, Jimmy Graham, or those running backs decline sooner than expected the outlook erodes swiftly for Team Brimacombe.
Danny Tuccitto - Slot 5
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.05 | 5 | WR | Allen Robinson | JAC |
2.08 | 20 | RB | Lamar Miller | HOU |
3.05 | 29 | WR | Randall Cobb | GBP |
4.08 | 44 | RB | Carlos Hyde | SFO |
5.05 | 53 | WR | Sterling Shepard | NYG |
6.08 | 68 | WR | Phillip Dorsett | IND |
7.05 | 77 | RB | Derrick Henry | TEN |
8.08 | 92 | TE | Zach Ertz | PHI |
9.05 | 101 | WR | Markus Wheaton | PIT |
10.08 | 116 | QB | Drew Brees | NOS |
11.05 | 125 | RB | DeAngelo Williams | PIT |
12.08 | 140 | WR | Nelson Agholor | PHI |
13.05 | 149 | TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TBB |
14.08 | 164 | RB | Justin Forsett | BAL |
15.05 | 173 | QB | Brock Osweiler | HOU |
16.08 | 188 | RB | Rashad Jennings | NYG |
17.05 | 197 | WR | Albert Wilson | KCC |
18.08 | 212 | Def | Kansas City Chiefs | KCC |
19.05 | 221 | RB | Mike Gillislee | BUF |
20.08 | 236 | TE | Vance McDonald | SFO |
Overall Strategy
Dominate Backfields
Best Pick
Allen Robinson, 1.05, WR4. Robinson is on a historic track with productive 21 and 22-year-old seasons on his NFL profile. Securing Robinson after Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Todd Gurley in mid-Round 1 is a best case scenario for Tuccitto to begin his dynasty team-building.
Worst Pick
Carlos Hyde, 4.08, RB13. No picks by Tuccitto stand out as overt reaches. Even Hyde in a vacuum as RB13 is reasonable and possesses plenty of short-term upside. However, Hyde is a high-variance pick within the top-50 as the 49ers are not a projected good offense and the next Hyde injury will shade his dynasty market appeal, capping any long-term turn-around. LaQuon Treadwell and Corey Coleman, both consensus top-4 rookie picks this year, were available to Tuccitto at 4.08, a return Hyde is not drawing in existing dynasty league trade markets as more sturdy – and insulated – long-term assets.
Evaluation
While on the younger side overall, Tuccitto’s roster has championship upside in 2016. Carlos Hyde, Zach Ertz, Lamar Miller, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Randall Cobb all can tilt fantasy leagues through their upside this season. However, all four have a wide range of dynasty value over the next five months if they fail to meet expectations. DeAngelo Williams early in the year and Derrick Henry later in the year (or if DeMarco Murray should falter) offer running back upside as well.
Chris Kuczyski - Slot 6
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.06 | 6 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL |
2.07 | 19 | WR | Alshon Jeffery | CHI |
3.06 | 30 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | DEN |
4.07 | 43 | WR | Jordy Nelson | GBP |
5.06 | 54 | WR | Doug Baldwin | SEA |
6.07 | 67 | RB | Jeremy Hill | CIN |
7.06 | 78 | TE | Greg Olsen | CAR |
8.07 | 91 | RB | Danny Woodhead | SDC |
9.06 | 102 | QB | Derek Carr | OAK |
10.07 | 115 | WR | Will Fuller | HOU |
11.06 | 126 | WR | Tyler Boyd | CIN |
12.07 | 139 | QB | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT |
13.06 | 150 | RB | Chris Ivory | JAC |
14.07 | 163 | TE | Martellus Bennett | NEP |
15.06 | 174 | RB | Josh Ferguson | IND |
16.07 | 187 | RB | Bilal Powell | NYJ |
17.06 | 198 | RB | Charcandrick West | KCC |
18.07 | 211 | Def | Houston Texans | HOU |
19.06 | 222 | WR | Kenny Bell | TBB |
20.07 | 235 | RB | Shaun Draughn | SFO |
Overall Strategy
Short-Term Upside Betting
Best Pick
Will Fuller, 10.07, WR55. Fuller’s stock has been beaten to a pulp this offseason despite possessing 4.3x speed, quality collegiate production, and Round 1 pedigree as the second receiver off the board in the 2016 NFL Draft. After Kuczynski filled out his entire starting lineup, Fuller is the quintessential long-term asset to stash on the bench.
Worst Pick
Jeremy Hill, 6.07, RB20. Jeremy Hill was once a Round 2 startup pick following his rookie season. Since then, Hill has logged a ho-hum season and Giovani Bernard has signed a long-term deal in Cincinnati. Hill is a straight-line runner needing high volume, goal line opportunities, and quality blocking.
Evaluation
Kuczynski made plenty of short-term bets from Chris Ivory and Danny Woodhead at running back to Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, and Greg Olsen in the passing game. Taking Ezekiel Elliott at 1.06 was a luxury, but combined with a few older bets Kuczynski is a 2016 title contender. However, Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson are tenuous bets to maintain their purchase price by market value into the 2017 offseason. Future rookie picks and mining running back value behind Ezekiel Elliott will be critical going forward.
Matt Waldman - Slot 7
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.07 | 7 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU |
2.06 | 18 | QB | Russell Wilson | SEA |
3.07 | 31 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR |
4.06 | 42 | WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA |
5.07 | 55 | TE | Travis Kelce | KCC |
6.06 | 66 | RB | Ameer Abdullah | DET |
7.07 | 79 | RB | Matt Forte | NYJ |
8.06 | 90 | RB | Isaiah Crowell | CLE |
9.07 | 103 | RB | DeMarco Murray | TEN |
10.06 | 114 | WR | Travis Benjamin | SDC |
11.07 | 127 | WR | Leonte Carroo | MIA |
12.06 | 138 | WR | Bruce Ellington | SFO |
13.07 | 151 | QB | Philip Rivers | SDC |
14.06 | 162 | RB | Spencer Ware | KCC |
15.07 | 175 | WR | Jaelen Strong | HOU |
16.06 | 186 | QB | Brett Hundley | GBP |
17.07 | 199 | TE | Charles Clay | BUF |
18.06 | 210 | Def | Carolina Panthers | CAR |
19.07 | 223 | WR | Seth Roberts | OAK |
20.06 | 234 | TE | Virgil Green | DEN |
Overall Strategy
Balanced Approach
Best Pick
Leonte Carroo, 11.07, WR59. Carroo has a terrific metric profile and a strong value in the 10-15 overall range of rookie drafts. Carroo was selected after Wendell Smallwood, Hunter Henry, Jordan Howard, and Paul Perkins of note among the 2016 rookie crop. Carroo can play inside and on the perimeter as a hedge against DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry in the Miami passing game.
Worst Pick
Travis Kelce, 5.07, TE3. Kelce has finished at TE8 and TE9 the past two seasons and resides in a limited passing offense in Kansas City for the time being. Paying TE3 prices limits any upside for Kelce to turn a profit at a historically unpredictable season-to-season position to shoot the needle for upside. Josh Doctson of note was available as Kelce does not return mid-Round 1 in existing leagues. Without tight end premium dynamics, Kelce was a value-loss in Round 5 as the third tight end off the board.
Evaluation
Taking Russell Wilson as the first quarterback off the board (Round 2), Travis Kelce as TE3, and older backs Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray within the first 10 rounds leaves positional value on the draft table. Philip Rivers in Round 13, with Russell Wilson already rostered, was another luxury selection. Despite four running backs drafted in the first nine rounds, Waldman has a tenuous outlook without a cornerstone asset in their prime or a blue-chip talent.
Devin Knotts - Slot 8
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.08 | 8 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | NEP |
2.05 | 17 | WR | Keenan Allen | SDC |
3.08 | 32 | QB | Cam Newton | CAR |
4.05 | 41 | WR | Josh Gordon | CLE |
5.08 | 56 | WR | Allen Hurns | JAC |
6.05 | 65 | RB | LeSean McCoy | BUF |
7.08 | 80 | RB | Melvin Gordon | SDC |
8.05 | 89 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI |
9.08 | 104 | RB | Jonathan Stewart | CAR |
10.05 | 113 | WR | Mohamed Sanu | ATL |
11.08 | 128 | WR | Willie Snead | NOS |
12.05 | 137 | WR | Davante Adams | GBP |
13.08 | 152 | QB | Eli Manning | NYG |
14.05 | 161 | TE | Maxx Williams | BAL |
15.08 | 176 | QB | Robert Griffin III | CLE |
16.05 | 185 | WR | Robert Woods | BUF |
17.08 | 200 | WR | Ted Ginn Jr | CAR |
18.05 | 209 | RB | Darren Sproles | PHI |
19.08 | 224 | WR | Jermaine Kearse | SEA |
20.05 | 233 | Def | Buffalo Bills | BUF |
Overall Strategy
Lean-and-Mean Running Backs
Best Pick
Keenan Allen, 2.05, WR12. Allen has been a hyper-productive receiver early in his career and a quality dynasty asset. After Rob Gronkowski in Round 1, Knotts still found a top receiver with Allen in Round 2. With Philip Rivers, Allen has a quality floor for the foreseeable future in San Diego.
Worst Pick
Josh Gordon, 4.05, WR23. Gordon is back on the radar with his reinstatement. However, Gordon remains a considerable risk on two fronts. First, Gordon is deep into the NFL substance abuse program, a status which will not change going forward in his career. Secondly, Gordon was not an impact player the last time on the field. With a top-50 selection, Gordon offers substantial risk where top young players and sturdier production bets were available.
Evaluation
Outside of Keenan Allen in Round 2, Knotts’ dynasty haul was close to the antithesis of my recommended team-building strategy. Knotts took just four running backs overall – in a start-2RB mandatory setting – with all having substantial risk. Cam Newton and Rob Gronkowski offer stability, but at non-premium positions in this format. Beyond Keenan Allen, Knotts’ wide receivers are dicey long-term projections.
Daniel Simpkins - Slot 9
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.09 | 9 | WR | Mike Evans | TBB |
2.04 | 16 | WR | Brandin Cooks | NOS |
3.09 | 33 | WR | Kevin White | CHI |
4.04 | 40 | WR | DeVante Parker | MIA |
5.09 | 57 | WR | Josh Doctson | WAS |
6.04 | 64 | WR | Dorial Green-Beckham | TEN |
7.09 | 81 | RB | Kenneth Dixon | BAL |
8.04 | 88 | WR | Devin Funchess | CAR |
9.09 | 105 | RB | Charles Sims | TBB |
10.04 | 112 | RB | Jerick McKinnon | MIN |
11.09 | 129 | TE | Austin Hooper | ATL |
12.04 | 136 | WR | Jeff Janis | GBP |
13.09 | 153 | QB | Ryan Tannehill | MIA |
14.04 | 160 | QB | Paxton Lynch | DEN |
15.09 | 177 | RB | Tyler Ervin | HOU |
16.04 | 184 | RB | Keith Marshall | WAS |
17.09 | 201 | RB | Zach Zenner | DET |
18.04 | 208 | RB | Daniel Lasco | NOS |
19.09 | 225 | TE | Will Tye | NYG |
20.04 | 232 | Def | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TBB |
Overall Strategy
Extend the Runway
Best Pick
Devin Funchess, 8.04, WR46. Funchess flashed as a 21-year-old rookie despite his head swimming by reports last season. With Cam Newton and growing into the wide receiver position (after plenty of time at tight end in college), Funchess has impact upside with a well-balanced metric profile. Down Simpkins’ wide receiver depth chart, Funchess is the prototypical talent stash to turn a strong dynasty roster into a dominant one for future seasons.
Worst Pick
Daniel Lasco, 18.04, RB65. As a former UTHDynasty.com writer possessing a like-minded dynasty approach, there are few picks to quibble with of Simpkins. Lasco is my least favorite. Despite the minimal cost, Lasco is a fringe talent for the NFL and the short-term situation in New Orleans is not optimal behind Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower, and C.J. Spiller looking to rebound as a change-of-pace option. With short rosters, Lasco is likely to be back on the waiver wire before Week 1.
Evaluation
By stacking wide receivers with his first six selections, Simpkins built a long runaway to see how his running backs pan out and address tight end if needed to contend. Simpkins is unlikely to compete for a title in 2016 unless he hits the running back jackpot with projected starters’ injuries. However, the future is bright with Simpkins’ enviable wide receiver corps until the rest of the roster catches up.
Cian Fahey - Slot 10
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.10 | 10 | RB | Le\'Veon Bell | PIT |
2.03 | 15 | WR | Sammy Watkins | BUF |
3.10 | 34 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | GBP |
4.03 | 39 | RB | C.J. Anderson | DEN |
5.10 | 58 | WR | Stefon Diggs | MIN |
6.03 | 63 | TE | Tyler Eifert | CIN |
7.10 | 82 | WR | Michael Thomas | NOS |
8.03 | 87 | RB | C.J. Prosise | SEA |
9.10 | 106 | RB | Paul Perkins | NYG |
10.03 | 111 | TE | Ladarius Green | PIT |
11.10 | 130 | WR | J.J. Nelson | ARI |
12.03 | 135 | RB | Karlos Williams | BUF |
13.10 | 154 | TE | Clive Walford | OAK |
14.03 | 159 | QB | Tyrod Taylor | BUF |
15.10 | 178 | Def | Minnesota Vikings | MIN |
16.03 | 183 | WR | Justin Hardy | ATL |
17.10 | 202 | WR | Kenny Britt | RAM |
18.03 | 207 | WR | Malcolm Mitchell | NEP |
19.10 | 226 | WR | Devin Smith | NYJ |
20.03 | 231 | RB | Chris Johnson | ARI |
Overall Strategy
Playing with Wide Receiver Fire
Best Pick
C.J. Prosise, 8.03, RB30. Prosise is a big and athletic back with passing chops. Amidst a rookie class which generally fell down the NFL Draft board, Prosise was one of the few Day 2 or better selections. At a minimum, Prosise carves a PPR-centric role initially with upside to grow into a three-down option behind remedial talent Thomas Rawls in Seattle.
Worst Pick
C.J. Anderson, 4.03, RB12. At 25 years old, Anderson has yet to string together a long run of production in the NFL. The Peyton Manning factor in Denver is gone to optimize his touches. Devontae Booker was drafted as an NFL-ready three-down back by the Broncos this offseason. Anderson is a ho-hum long-term talent and at 4.03 options like DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockett, and top wide receivers from the 2016 class were available.
Evaluation
Fahey’s wide receiver position is a risky group with little behind Sammy Watkins. Three tight ends in the first 13 rounds was excessive considering the format. Late-round wide receivers are historically a low-probability bet, requiring a very high bar to prove profitable; Fahey four of his last five selections on receiver. If Fahey hits on his running backs in the short-term, he can contend. However, an injury or two (or subpar play) turns his squad into a murky long-term projection.
Bear Heiser - Slot 11
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.11 | 11 | WR | A.J. Green | CIN |
2.02 | 14 | WR | Dez Bryant | DAL |
3.11 | 35 | RB | Thomas Rawls | SEA |
4.02 | 38 | RB | Eddie Lacy | GBP |
5.11 | 59 | WR | Jeremy Maclin | KCC |
6.02 | 62 | RB | Dion Lewis | NEP |
7.11 | 83 | WR | Marvin Jones | DET |
8.02 | 86 | WR | Julian Edelman | NEP |
9.11 | 107 | RB | Jeremy Langford | CHI |
10.02 | 110 | TE | Gary Barnidge | CLE |
11.11 | 131 | QB | Tom Brady | NEP |
12.02 | 134 | WR | Kamar Aiken | BAL |
13.11 | 155 | QB | Jimmy Garoppolo | NEP |
14.02 | 158 | RB | Javorius Allen | BAL |
15.11 | 179 | WR | Tajae Sharpe | TEN |
16.02 | 182 | RB | Alex Collins | SEA |
17.11 | 203 | WR | Rishard Matthews | TEN |
18.02 | 206 | TE | Jared Cook | GBP |
19.11 | 227 | Def | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN |
20.02 | 230 | WR | Steve Smith | BAL |
Overall Strategy
Stacking Strength
Best Pick
Tom Brady, 11.11, QB11. With a contending view, Brady as QB11 makes a ton of sense. Drew Brees and the main high-upside older quarterbacks were already off the board and Heiser had drafted a more win-now roster through 10 rounds. However, Heiser did use 13.11 on Jimmy Garoppolo, returning some of the value gained in the short-roster format unless he develops into a quality starter in addition to Brady down the line.
Worst Pick
Thomas Rawls, 3.11, RB10. Rawls was a two-down option even during his peak production window as a 2015 rookie. Since then, Rawls has sustained a serious – still recovering – injury and Seattle brought in a host of 2016 rookies, including Day 2 selection C.J. Prosise. Rawls is a risky dynasty investment, especially with a top-40 startup pick.
Evaluation
Heiser may have the oldest core roster in the league with wide receivers in their later 20s and 30s, Gary Barnidge as his starting tight end, and Tom Brady at QB1. Some will underperform or fall off in 2016, making the current year critical to Heiser’s outlook. Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and Dion Lewis all have RB1 upside, but tenuous dynasty value at running back.
Andy Hicks - Slot 12
Pick | Overall | Pos | Player | Team |
1.12 | 12 | RB | David Johnson | ARI |
2.01 | 13 | WR | Amari Cooper | OAK |
3.12 | 36 | QB | Andrew Luck | IND |
4.01 | 37 | TE | Jordan Reed | WAS |
5.12 | 60 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN |
6.01 | 61 | RB | Giovani Bernard | CIN |
7.12 | 84 | RB | Matt Jones | WAS |
8.01 | 85 | WR | DeSean Jackson | WAS |
9.12 | 108 | WR | Michael Crabtree | OAK |
10.01 | 109 | WR | Sammie Coates | PIT |
11.12 | 132 | RB | Arian Foster | MIA |
12.01 | 133 | RB | Kenyan Drake | MIA |
13.12 | 156 | TE | Jordan Cameron | MIA |
14.01 | 157 | QB | Andy Dalton | CIN |
15.12 | 180 | Def | Seattle Seahawks | SEA |
16.01 | 181 | QB | Teddy Bridgewater | MIN |
17.12 | 204 | RB | Ryan Mathews | PHI |
18.01 | 205 | TE | Kyle Rudolph | MIN |
19.12 | 228 | Def | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAC |
20.01 | 229 | WR | Pharoh Cooper | RAM |
Overall Strategy
The Balanced Build
Best Pick
Amari Cooper, WR8, 2.01. Cooper was the best value in the first two rounds by my view. Cooper regularly goes in the top-8, deservedly so, in dynasty startup drafts. Hicks nabbed the second-year receiver after four running backs, plus Rob Gronkowski and A.J. Green uncharacteristically were drafted in Round 1. Cooper is an ideal building block to long-term success.
Worst Pick
Jordan Reed, TE2, 4.12. There is no wiggle room with highly-drafted tight ends. Reed had a career year in 2015 as many forgot about his concussion red flags heading into this offseason. The next concussion for Reed will torpedo his market value plus Washington’s passing game (read: Kirk Cousins) had a Nick Foles-like hot streak in 2015, which is a regression unit overall in 2016. Early Round 1 rookies from 2016 were available in this zone, a better long-term bet to maintain market value over the next 12 months. Reed in the top-50 is topped out, without risk factored in, as an asset.
Evaluation
Despite drafting Andrew Luck, Hicks went back to the quarterback pool with selections of Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater in the later rounds. With only 20 roster spots, Hicks did not maximize his roster with three quarterbacks, two defenses, and three tight ends, where he drafted Jordan Reed early as well. As a result, Hicks has little depth at wide receiver. Running back is a clear strength of the roster and a potential trading chip in-season.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com