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On July 9th, twelve members of the Footballguys staff got together for the site's first mock draft of 2016. Below is the league scoring format and bylaws.
League Parameters
- 12 teams
- 20 roster spots
- Starting Lineup
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 3 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
- 1 team defense
League Scoring
- Offensive Players
- 4 points - passing touchdown
- 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
- 0.05 points - passing yard
- 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
- 1 point - reception
- Team Defense
- 6 points - touchdown
- 2 points - turnover recovered
- 2 points - safety
- 1 point - sack
- 10 points - Offensive points against: 0-0
- 7 points - Offensive points against: 1-6
- 4 points - Offensive points against: 7-20
- 1 point - Offensive points against: 21-29
- -3 points - Offensive points against: 30-99
- 6 points each - Number of Defensive and Special Teams Touchdowns
THE DRAFT ORDER
The draft order was created randomly. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft pick by pick
- Steve Holloway
- Jeff Tefertiller
- Chris Feery
- Jeff Haseley
- Daniel Simpkins
- Alex Miglio
- John Norton
- Ryan Hester
- Matt Harmon
- Andrew Katz
- Chad Parsons
- Cian Fahey
Starting with Steve Holloway from the 1.01 spot, Justin Howe provides an unbiased evaluation of each team's draft performance.
Steve Holloway Slot 1
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.01 | 1 | Brown, Antonio PIT WR |
2.12 | 24 | Charles, Jamaal KCC RB |
3.01 | 25 | Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR |
4.12 | 48 | Newton, Cam CAR QB |
5.01 | 49 | Bernard, Giovani CIN RB |
6.12 | 72 | Crabtree, Michael OAK WR |
7.01 | 73 | Ertz, Zach PHI TE |
8.12 | 96 | Abdullah, Ameer DET RB |
9.01 | 97 | Palmer, Carson ARI QB |
10.12 | 120 | Ebron, Eric DET TE |
11.01 | 121 | Jackson, Vincent TBB WR |
12.12 | 144 | Vereen, Shane NYG RB |
13.01 | 145 | Williams, Terrance DAL WR |
14.12 | 168 | Woods, Robert BUF WR |
15.01 | 169 | Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK |
16.12 | 192 | Starks, James GBP RB |
17.01 | 193 | Perriman, Breshad BAL WR |
18.12 | 216 | Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def |
19.01 | 217 | Giants, New York NYG Def |
20.12 | 240 | Higbee, Tyler RAM TE (R) |
Overall Strategy
Balanced overall, with a slight running back lean and heavy quarterback investment
Best Pick
James Starks, 16.12, RB60. It’s absurd that Holloway was able to scoop James Starks as the RB60. Handcuff backs are always hard to project, but Starks is one of the few with a real stake in the offense and no real competition as his team’s No. 2. And he always carries a strong shot at lead back duties – Eddie Lacy is remarkably banged-up and at a career crossroads – in a powerful offense. This is far, far too late for Starks to be available.
Worst Pick
Carson Palmer, 9.01, QB7. Regardless of where you stand on early quarterback investment, one of its benefits of is that you’re not required to invest much down the line in your No. 2. With Cam Newton on board, Round 9 was a bit early to dip back into the QB market, especially with so many similar options available. I don’t see much difference between Palmer and the next 3-5 guys taken.
Evaluation
I’m not a huge fan of early-round quarterbacks, especially in best-ball formats, but I certainly see Newton’s appeal. He did post five top-three QB weeks last year. Elsewhere, Holloway built a fine RB corps, thanks in large part to the value of the nearly-free Starks. I also like the late upside he found in Breshad Perriman (17.01) and Robert Woods (14.12), who would see more work with Sammy Watkins hobbled than many think.
Jeff Tefertiller Slot 2
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.02 | 2 | Beckham, Odell NYG WR |
2.11 | 23 | Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR |
3.02 | 26 | Cooks, Brandin NOS WR |
4.11 | 47 | Olsen, Greg CAR TE |
5.02 | 50 | Woodhead, Danny SDC RB |
6.11 | 71 | Jones, Marvin DET WR |
7.02 | 74 | Foster, Arian FA* RB |
8.11 | 95 | Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB |
9.02 | 98 | Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB |
10.11 | 119 | Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB |
11.02 | 122 | Gates, Antonio SDC TE |
12.11 | 143 | Washington, DeAndre OAK RB (R) |
13.02 | 146 | Stafford, Matthew DET QB |
14.11 | 167 | Sproles, Darren PHI RB |
15.02 | 170 | Hauschka, Steven SEA PK |
16.11 | 191 | Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def |
17.02 | 194 | Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def |
18.11 | 215 | Garcon, Pierre WAS WR |
19.02 | 218 | Agholor, Nelson PHI WR |
20.11 | 239 | Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB (R) |
Overall Strategy
Zero-RB principles, with heavy receiver investment early and mid-to-late-round RB upside
Best Pick
Brandin Cooks, 3.02, WR17. Early in Round 3, a critical spot for drafters prioritizing one position over another, Tefertiller stayed true to his strategy and selected Cooks. It was the right play; not only is Cooks an ascending target hog in a dynamic offense, but the RB1 pool saw a real dip in quality at this point.
Worst Pick
Arian Foster, 7.02, RB26. I see the appeal in rostering Foster, a proven, versatile presence who could claim a solid workload this August. But Round 7 is early for my taste; he’s a walking red flag who probably fits best two rounds later. He remains jobless as in July and is no guarantee to produce even if he latches on. He’ll be 30 in August, has lost 24 of his last 49 games to injury, and looked anemic in 2015.
Evaluation
Altogether, this a near-ideal zero-RB draft, which is a joy to see done well. Tefertiller built a stable of backs rooted in upside, with some intriguing handcuffs and redraft-ready rookies. With strong WR firepower from atop of the draft, and great value coming from a pair of NFL starters in Rounds 18 and 19, he’s set up for some big weeks from his flex spot. And he didn’t overpay for a single quarterback or tight end, all of whom carry solid projections.
Chris Feery Slot 3
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.03 | 3 | Jones, Julio ATL WR |
2.10 | 22 | Hilton, T.Y. IND WR |
3.03 | 27 | Martin, Doug TBB RB |
4.10 | 46 | Matthews, Jordan PHI WR |
5.03 | 51 | Rawls, Thomas SEA RB |
6.10 | 70 | Coleman, Corey CLE WR (R) |
7.03 | 75 | Ajayi, Jay MIA RB |
8.10 | 94 | Green, Ladarius PIT TE |
9.03 | 99 | Manning, Eli NYG QB |
10.10 | 118 | Henry, Derrick TEN RB (R) |
11.03 | 123 | Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR |
12.10 | 142 | Witten, Jason DAL TE |
13.03 | 147 | Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB |
14.10 | 166 | Perkins, Paul NYG RB (R) |
15.03 | 171 | Broncos, Denver DEN Def |
16.10 | 190 | McDonald, Vance SFO TE |
17.03 | 195 | Raiders, Oakland OAK Def |
18.10 | 214 | Conley, Chris KCC WR |
19.03 | 219 | Crosby, Mason GBP PK |
20.10 | 238 | Sanchez, Mark DEN QB |
Overall Strategy
Attacking the flex spot, stocking WR first while waiting on QBs and TEs
Best Pick
Jay Ajayi, 7.03, RB27. If you’re looking to stock your wideouts first and foremost – as you generally should – then Ajayi is the type of back you should be chasing down the line. Projected to start in an up-tempo offense, Ajayi boasts a dynamic, versatile college resume and a strong athletic profile. Provided the Dolphins don’t add competition in camp, he doesn’t face much competition for touches, either. It’s astounding he was available beyond the likes of Ryan Mathews and Arian Foster.
Worst Pick
Ladarius Green, 8.10, TE9. It’s hard to find a weakness in Feery’s draft, and I never thought I’d call Green anyone’s “worst pick.” But I just don’t like Rounds 7-10 or so for tight ends, especially this year. Green carries all sorts of red flags – low usage in San Diego, several recent concussions – and the Steelers haven’t thrown enough to the position to warrant a lot of optimism. Green is a drool-worthy athlete, though, so even this “worst” pick carries marked upside.
Evaluation
Best-ball leagues often revolve around the flex spot, and Feery’s approach aligned with that. By opening with seven RB/WR picks, Feery is set up to score well at the higher-variance positions. That means quantity over quality at quarterback and tight end, and Feery mined real stability in the late rounds. With a fine duo of low-end QB1s and two starting NFL TEs, he’s easily covered week-to-week at the peripheral positions. This roster is strategic, balanced, and heavy in all the right places.
Jeff Haseley Slot 4
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.04 | 4 | Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR |
2.09 | 21 | Landry, Jarvis MIA WR |
3.04 | 28 | Ingram, Mark NOS RB |
4.09 | 45 | Johnson, Duke CLE RB |
5.04 | 52 | Wilson, Russell SEA QB |
6.09 | 69 | Hill, Jeremy CIN RB |
7.04 | 76 | Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R) |
8.09 | 93 | Aiken, Kamar BAL WR |
9.04 | 100 | Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB |
10.09 | 117 | Bennett, Martellus NEP TE |
11.04 | 124 | Allen, Dwayne IND TE |
12.09 | 141 | Cousins, Kirk WAS QB |
13.04 | 148 | Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB |
14.09 | 165 | Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def |
15.04 | 172 | Crowder, Jamison WAS WR |
16.09 | 189 | Thompson, Chris WAS RB |
17.04 | 196 | Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR |
18.09 | 213 | Tucker, Justin BAL PK |
19.04 | 220 | Santos, Cairo KCC PK |
20.09 | 237 | Colts, Indianapolis IND Def |
Overall Strategy
Balanced throughout, with a clear WR lean and an early QB
Best Picks
Duke Johnson, 4.09, RB17 and Isaiah Crowell, 9.04, RB36. Since Haseley chased wideouts with his first two picks, he was wise to scoop up stable, high-volume guys like these in the middle rounds. Owning an entire Hue Jackson backfield in a best-ball format is fantasy dynamite; his backs consistently take very heavy volume in both facets of the offense. Crowell hasn’t shown much through two years, but a mid-level Jeremy Hill season is well within reach. And Johnson, an upper-level athlete with a great two-way resume, is likely to ascend in efficiency alongside his volume increase.
Worst Pick
Sterling Shepard, 7.04, WR40. It’s not that I hate Shepard’s short-term appeal. In fact, I expect him to see heavy rookie snaps as the Giants’ No. 2A option. But his upside is definitely capped as a slot-only type in an aggressive offense that’s unlikely to create a 70-catch slot man. I see him as a steadying WR4/5 presence on an MFL10 roster, but Round 7 is a bit early for me. I would’ve preferred Willie Snead, DeSean Jackson, or Tavon Austin here – similar floors with stronger upside.
Evaluation
Haseley clearly took a value-based strategy, relying on solid studs with solid projections to anchor his weekly lineup. That can always backfire, as it’s a method based heavily upon the accuracy of one’s own projections, but Haseley subsidized his core with plenty of quality depth. He’s set up beautifully for MFL’s PPR format, with volume wideouts from all levels of the draft and a handful of quality receiving backs. It’s a reminder that we can still draft shrewdly and successfully even without employing a position-heavy approach.
Daniel Simpkins Slot 5
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.05 | 5 | Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB |
2.08 | 20 | Cooper, Amari OAK WR |
3.05 | 29 | Cobb, Randall GBP WR |
4.08 | 44 | Lewis, Dion NEP RB |
5.05 | 53 | Floyd, Michael ARI WR |
6.08 | 68 | Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB |
7.05 | 77 | Eifert, Tyler CIN TE |
8.08 | 92 | Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R) |
9.05 | 101 | Gordon, Melvin SDC RB |
10.08 | 116 | Coates, Sammie PIT WR |
11.05 | 125 | Winston, Jameis TBB QB |
12.08 | 140 | Cameron, Jordan MIA TE |
13.05 | 149 | McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB |
14.08 | 164 | Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE |
15.05 | 173 | Ferguson, Josh IND RB (R) |
16.08 | 188 | Zenner, Zach DET RB |
17.05 | 197 | Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def |
18.08 | 212 | Roberts, Seth OAK WR |
19.05 | 221 | Hooper, Austin ATL TE (R) |
20.08 | 236 | Forbath, Kai NOS PK |
Overall strategy
WR-heavy, with a first-round anchor running back and a crew of late-round upside plays
Best Picks
Jerick McKinnon, 13.05, RB51; Josh Ferguson, 15.05, RB55; Zach Zenner, 16.08, RB58. This trio of high-upside running back stabs looks golden. Handcuffs are especially valuable in best-ball leagues, especially when they carry the freakish gifts of McKinnon and Zenner. McKinnon nosed his way into a very noticeable passing down and No. 2 role behind Adrian Peterson, a niche that should grow exponentially as Peterson hits age 32. Zenner was absurdly productive at South Dakota State and, like McKinnon, carries a SPARQ profile among the stars. Ferguson is a productive pass-catching back with only a handful of castoffs to compete with for strong usage. If the ghost of Frank Gore sputters or goes down, Ferguson help could win leagues in a likely resurgent Colts offense.
Worst Pick
Laquon Treadwell, 8.08, WR46. I’m not an overwhelming fan of Treadwell, at least in relation to most of the fantasy world. He’s a steady pick with true Anquan Boldin upside, but I’m not sure how much upside he carries, especially as a rookie and in such a run-heavy offense. Treadwell will need to vanquish Stefon Diggs, a solid prospect in his own right, to find any real fantasy relevance. I would’ve invested elsewhere in Round 8.
Evaluation
I may disagree with a handful of Simpkins’ early picks, but I love the depth he accumulated. He chased upside with athletic prospects and two intriguing late-round rookies, drawing excellent value from each pick. And I love that he scooped Aaron Rodgers two rounds after Cam Newton went. All told, this roster turned out balanced while featuring gobs of upside, which isn’t an easy accomplishment.
Alex Miglio Slot 6
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.06 | 6 | Green, A.J. CIN WR |
2.07 | 19 | Freeman, Devonta ATL RB |
3.06 | 30 | Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR |
4.07 | 43 | Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR |
5.06 | 54 | Luck, Andrew IND QB |
6.07 | 67 | Murray, DeMarco TEN RB |
7.06 | 78 | Walker, Delanie TEN TE |
8.07 | 91 | Ivory, Chris JAC RB |
9.06 | 102 | Doctson, Josh WAS WR (R) |
10.07 | 115 | Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB (R) |
11.06 | 126 | Hogan, Chris NEP WR |
12.07 | 139 | Rivers, Philip SDC QB |
13.06 | 150 | Cook, Jared GBP TE |
14.07 | 163 | LaFell, Brandon CIN WR |
15.06 | 174 | Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE |
16.07 | 187 | Texans, Houston HOU Def |
17.06 | 198 | Nelson, J.J. ARI WR |
18.07 | 211 | Ellington, Andre ARI RB |
19.06 | 222 | Dolphins, Miami MIA Def |
20.07 | 235 | Myers, Jason JAC PK |
Overall Strategy
WR-heavy, with an early-round anchor RB and a crew of late-round upside plays
Best Pick
Devonta Freeman, 2.07, RB7. In a zero-RB or otherwise WR-heavy draft, it’s generally fair to grab an anchor back in the first two rounds – provided he’s a volume king with receptions and TD opportunity on tap. Freeman projects squarely into the top tier of the league in terms of volume and red zone usage; he’s a second-round steal as paired with a first-round wideout.
Worst Pick
Kelvin Benjamin, 3.06, WR19. I like Benjamin’s ceiling a lot, but I don’t love his chances of approaching it. His dominant rookie role is likely to scale back a bit; Carolina has assembled far more competing talent than it had in 2014, and Benjamin won’t have the garbage time volume to create that same magic. There’s potential for 10+ touchdowns, but he looks fairly hit-or-miss as a third-rounder, even in an MFL10.
Evaluation
Miglio clearly chased consistent production; he loaded up early on NFL teams’ No. 1 wideouts and backs with potential to dominate their respective backfields. Creating that kind of floor gives more latitude to pick up intriguing upside picks down the line, which Miglio took advantage of. He also extracted strong value from his quarterbacks and cobbled together a solid best-ball tight end trio.
John Norton Slot 7
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.07 | 7 | Johnson, David ARI RB |
2.06 | 18 | Nelson, Jordy GBP WR |
3.07 | 31 | Anderson, C.J. DEN RB |
4.06 | 42 | Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR |
5.07 | 55 | Baldwin, Doug SEA WR |
6.06 | 66 | Kelce, Travis KCC TE |
7.07 | 79 | Snead, Willie NOS WR |
8.06 | 90 | Langford, Jeremy CHI RB |
9.07 | 103 | Carr, Derek OAK QB |
10.06 | 114 | Jennings, Rashad NYG RB |
11.07 | 127 | Wheaton, Markus PIT WR |
12.06 | 138 | Booker, Devontae DEN RB (R) |
13.07 | 151 | Dalton, Andy CIN QB |
14.06 | 162 | Walford, Clive OAK TE |
15.07 | 175 | Henry, Hunter SDC TE (R) |
16.06 | 186 | Panthers, Carolina CAR Def |
17.07 | 199 | Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def |
18.06 | 210 | Gano, Graham CAR PK |
19.07 | 223 | Hightower, Tim NOS RB |
20.06 | 234 | Walsh, Blair MIN PK |
Overall Strategy
Balanced, with an early RB lean and heavy WR focus in the middle rounds; waiting for a quarterback
Best Pick
Markus Wheaton, 11.07, WR56. In a draft full of value, Wheaton stood out. Round 11 is too late for the clear-cut No. 2 in a high-octane offense to be available. Wheaton’s efficiency has always waned, but his volume opportunity is high – top competitor Sammie Coates is exceptionally raw. Judging by Martavis Bryant’s typical share, it’s safe to call Wheaton a lock to approach 100 targets.
Worst Pick
Emmanuel Sanders, 4.06, WR25. Sanders has certainly overachieved in Denver, even without Peyton Manning’s aid. But this year’s Broncos offense will be insanely run-based, with either Mark Sanchez or a youngster who’s never thrown a pass under center. It’s hard to imagine it supporting two WR2s, so either Sanders or Demaryius Thomas is likely to see a noticeable plunge.
Evaluation
Norton’s decision to sit tight at quarterback until Round 9 was one I like. I’m not a huge fan of Carr, but the sentiment is awesome – with so many similarly projected QBs mushed together in that range, there’s just no rush. As a result, Norton walked away with well-rounded RB and WR depth charts, with some great value picks from up and down the draft. He compiled peripheral pieces of the Saints, Steelers, and Giants offenses – three units who project among the league’s best – and did it in the middle and late rounds. That’s an impressive accomplishment, and shrewd way to add ceiling to an MFL10 roster.
Ryan Hester Slot 8
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.08 | 8 | Bryant, Dez DAL WR |
2.05 | 17 | Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR |
3.08 | 32 | McCoy, LeSean BUF RB |
4.05 | 41 | Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR |
5.08 | 56 | Edelman, Julian NEP WR |
6.05 | 65 | Mathews, Ryan PHI RB |
7.08 | 80 | Jackson, DeSean WAS WR |
8.05 | 89 | Gore, Frank IND RB |
9.08 | 104 | Thomas, Julius JAC TE |
10.05 | 113 | Forsett, Justin BAL RB |
11.08 | 128 | Brady, Tom NEP QB |
12.05 | 137 | Smith, Steve BAL WR |
13.08 | 152 | Matthews, Rishard TEN WR |
14.05 | 161 | Ryan, Matt ATL QB |
15.08 | 176 | Tye, Will NYG TE |
16.05 | 185 | Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def |
17.08 | 200 | West, Charcandrick KCC RB |
18.05 | 209 | Bills, Buffalo BUF Def |
19.08 | 224 | Bailey, Dan DAL PK |
20.05 | 233 | Brown, Josh NYG PK |
Overall Strategy
WR-heavy, with a RB base of volume candidates from the middle rounds; waiting at quarterback
Best Pick
Frank Gore, 8.08, RB31. Hester clearly aimed to build a full, dynamic stable of receivers (and he snagged some strong ones) as his core. To make it work, a drafter needs to identify the right mid-round running backs, and Hester did a fine job in adding Gore so late. He’s not sexy or buzzworthy, but he stands atop the depth chart in a high-octane Colts offense – with no rushing competition to speak of. Even if his receiving role falls off with rookie Josh Ferguson in tow, Gore has a great volume outlook in both facets, and that’s what a WR-heavy drafter needs to be seeking,
Worst Pick
Ryan Mathews, 6.08, RB23. It’s hard to quibble with Hester’s methodology or his results here, but I’m not a Mathews fan. An injury case who’ll share time in a slow-paced, Sam Bradford-led offense that will often trail in its games, I see a walking red flag. I would have opted for Jay Ajayi or DeMarco Murray here – though Hester covered well by landing Gore two rounds later. No sweat.
Evaluation
This was an exceptionally smart draft, with a host of WR1/2 types cobbled together and high-usage anchor RBs. Hester is invested in late upside for sure, but he’s built his core around proven producers at high-volume levels: unquestioned NFL No. 1 wideouts and three-down running backs with little competition. Waiting at QB (and landing two proven guys with moderate upside) really paid off here.
Matt Harmon Slot 9
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.09 | 9 | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB (R) |
2.04 | 16 | Allen, Keenan SDC WR |
3.09 | 33 | Watkins, Sammy BUF WR |
4.04 | 40 | Moncrief, Donte IND WR |
5.09 | 57 | Brown, John ARI WR |
6.04 | 64 | Murray, Latavius OAK RB |
7.09 | 81 | Brees, Drew NOS QB |
8.04 | 88 | Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB |
9.09 | 105 | Benjamin, Travis SDC WR |
10.04 | 112 | Prosise, C.J. SEA RB (R) |
11.09 | 129 | Miller, Zach CHI TE |
12.04 | 136 | Wallace, Mike BAL WR |
13.09 | 153 | Ellington, Bruce SFO WR |
14.04 | 160 | Clay, Charles BUF TE |
15.09 | 177 | Smith, Alex KCC QB |
16.04 | 184 | Williams, Karlos BUF RB |
17.09 | 201 | Patriots, New England NEP Def |
18.04 | 208 | Packers, Green Bay GBP Def |
19.09 | 225 | Boswell, Chris PIT PK |
20.04 | 232 | Redskins, Washington WAS Def |
Overall Strategy
Build around a strong (league-best?) core of wide receivers; go with the devils you know at running back; punt tight end
Best Pick
John Brown, 5.09, WR31. Clearly valuing his wideouts above all else, Harmon picked up several WR1/2 types throughout the early rounds to anchor his roster. But Brown stands out in terms of value; Harmon scooped him right between WR tiers, behind question marks like Devante Parker and Michael Floyd. Brown, already one of the NFL’s most explosive downfield threats, has seen steady usage increases over his two seasons, and his fantasy value stands at the forefront of Larry Fitzgerald’s decline. A Jeremy Maclin-type of line is well within reach, and Harmon invested shrewdly.
Worst Pick
Ezekiel Elliott, 1.09, RB3. I’m sure Elliott will be a fine NFL runner, and it’s hard not to project him well as a rookie. But in order to return value on a first-round pick, he’ll likely need a perfect storm of circumstances. That means an immediate three-down role as a rookie, despite a deep RB group in Dallas, as well as upper-tier efficiency and receiving volume. It could certainly happen, but this is too rich for me to expect that; Harmon passed on likely volume dominators Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller for Elliott. My projections place Elliott a solid tier below, in line with Mark Ingram and Doug Martin.
Evaluation
Admittedly, I carry a bias: I’m incapable of disliking a fantasy roster that includes Donte Moncrief, John Brown, and Bruce Ellington. But I love this team as assembled. In building a WR-supreme roster, a drafter has to be creative in filling the other lineup slots, and Harmon was just that. He put together a group of value RBs that was ignored early in the draft and, frankly, shouldn’t have been around as late as he snagged them. And by punting at tight end – a perfectly viable best-ball strategy – he was able to build a strong flex-position core, replete with high-upside wideouts and receiving backs.
Andrew Katz Slot 10
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.10 | 10 | Gurley, Todd RAM RB |
2.03 | 15 | Evans, Mike TBB WR |
3.10 | 34 | Reed, Jordan WAS TE |
4.03 | 39 | Lacy, Eddie GBP RB |
5.10 | 58 | Lockett, Tyler SEA WR |
6.03 | 63 | Diggs, Stefon MIN WR |
7.10 | 82 | Smith, Torrey SFO WR |
8.03 | 87 | Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR |
9.10 | 106 | Powell, Bilal NYJ RB |
10.03 | 111 | Graham, Jimmy SEA TE |
11.10 | 130 | Bortles, Blake JAC QB |
12.03 | 135 | Gordon, Josh CLE WR |
13.10 | 154 | Mariota, Marcus TEN QB |
14.03 | 159 | Allen, Javorius BAL RB |
15.10 | 178 | Fitzpatrick, Ryan NYJ QB |
16.03 | 183 | Rams, Los Angeles RAM Def |
17.10 | 202 | Janis, Jeff GBP WR |
18.03 | 207 | Jets, New York NYJ Def |
19.10 | 226 | Aguayo, Roberto TBB PK (R) |
20.03 | 231 | Vinatieri, Adam IND PK |
Overall Strategy
RB-heavy; investing in mid-round upside at wideout; waiting at quarterback; praying to the tight end gods
Best Pick
Blake Bortles, 11.10, QB12; Marcus Mariota, 13.10, QB18; Ryan Fitzpatrick, 15.10, QB24. Katz is clearly on board with waiting for his QBs, and his final depth chart is a masterstroke. Bortles may or may not regress from his lofty 2015 totals, but with nearly all of Jacksonville’s talent playing in the pass game, any drop-off should be minimal – he’s an easy QB1, poached near the end of Round 11. Fitzpatrick is almost certain to regress, but should easily outproduce almost everyone taken in this range. And Mariota’s an exciting wild card, one who’ll throw more than some realize on a bad Titans team and finally add some dynamism on the ground. This is truly an awesome 3-QB grouping for any format, but especially an MFL10.
Worst Pick
Jordan Reed, 3.10, TE2. I’m off the Reed bandwagon for 2016, frightened by a lengthy concussion history and the general shakiness of the Kirk Cousins Era. His fourth-round ADP makes plenty of sense, given the target and red zone dominance we saw last year, but it’s quite a leap of faith. Reed has missed 14 of 49 pro games, several due to repeated brain injuries that will always red-flag a fourth-round guy for me. Reed’s full of upside – even at his high draft slot – but there were several difference-making WRs on the board I’d rather roll the dice on.
Evaluation
Katz certainly took some swings; Reed is a walking injury report unto himself, while Jimmy Graham is in a race to return for Week 1. But his few big risks were managed nicely by some smart, under-the-radar value picks in the middle rounds. I love the later investments in Bilal Powell and Javorius Allen, both three-down backs who could make starts for their team at any point. And I deeply love his QBs and WRs. All told, it’s hard to find any warts here.
Chad Parsons Slot 11
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.11 | 11 | Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE |
2.02 | 14 | Robinson, Allen JAC WR |
3.11 | 35 | Tate, Golden DET WR |
4.02 | 38 | Hyde, Carlos SFO RB |
5.11 | 59 | White, Kevin CHI WR |
6.02 | 62 | Sims, Charles TBB RB |
7.11 | 83 | Jones, Matt WAS RB |
8.02 | 86 | Austin, Tavon RAM WR |
9.11 | 107 | Funchess, Devin CAR WR |
10.02 | 110 | Coleman, Tevin ATL RB |
11.11 | 131 | Howard, Jordan CHI RB (R) |
12.02 | 134 | Boyd, Tyler CIN WR (R) |
13.11 | 155 | Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB |
14.02 | 158 | Flacco, Joe BAL QB |
15.11 | 179 | Osweiler, Brock HOU QB |
16.02 | 182 | Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def |
17.11 | 203 | Draughn, Shaun SFO RB |
18.02 | 206 | Catanzaro, Chandler ARI PK |
19.11 | 227 | McManus, Brandon DEN PK |
20.02 | 230 | Watson, Ben BAL TE |
Overall Strategy
Principles of zero-RB, betting on Rob Gronkowski and young, ascending wideouts; punt the QB
Best Pick
Ryan Tannehill, 13.11, QB19; Joe Flacco, 14.02, QB21; Brock Osweiler, 15.11, QB25. Again we see a drafter shrewdly waiting for his best-ball quarterbacks in favor stocking everywhere else. With this trio, Parsons shouldn’t have a hard time posting strong QB weeks throughout the season. None of these guys are enticing on their own, but this is best ball, so Parsons won’t have to decide amongst his mediocre stable QBs from week to week. He’ll just benefit from whichever has the strongest day.
Worst Pick
Carlos Hyde, 4.02, RB14. It’s not that I hate Hyde, who’s gotten a bad rap through two seasons and is set up to break out. But he’s not a great fit with that fourth-round pick. In a zero-RB type of draft approach, I prefer to either ignore the position through 5-6 rounds or spend a first-round pick on a rock-solid anchor. Dipping in for a question mark at RB limits the early-round value gain; I don’t see him as a demonstrably better fantasy prospect than a few guys available later.
Evaluation
This was really a well-set draft plan. By waiting to assemble a QB committee, Parsons gave himself a ton of early- and mid-round flexibility and dynamism. And he used that advantage well in this draft, overloading his flex options with upside wideouts and pass-catching backs. This is a WR-heavy draft carried out almost flawlessly.
Cian Fahey Slot 12
Pick | Ovr | Selection |
1.12 | 12 | Peterson, Adrian MIN RB |
2.01 | 13 | Miller, Lamar HOU RB |
3.12 | 36 | Forte, Matt NYJ RB |
4.01 | 37 | Parker, DeVante MIA WR |
5.12 | 60 | Hurns, Allen JAC WR |
6.01 | 61 | Decker, Eric NYJ WR |
7.12 | 84 | Fleener, Coby NOS TE |
8.01 | 85 | Riddick, Theo DET RB |
9.12 | 108 | Thomas, Michael NOS WR (R) |
10.01 | 109 | Barnidge, Gary CLE TE |
11.12 | 132 | Dorsett, Phillip IND WR |
12.01 | 133 | Fuller, Will HOU WR (R) |
13.12 | 156 | Carroo, Leonte MIA WR (R) |
14.01 | 157 | Romo, Tony DAL QB |
15.12 | 180 | Cutler, Jay CHI QB |
16.01 | 181 | Spiller, C.J. NOS RB |
17.12 | 204 | Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def |
18.01 | 205 | Morris, Alfred DAL RB |
19.12 | 228 | Brate, Cameron TBB TE |
20.01 | 229 | Dawson, Phil SFO PK |
Particularly RB-robust, using the middle rounds to assemble pass catchers; punt the QB
Best Pick
Eric Decker, 6.01, WR35. When drafting heavily at one specific position, it’s important to throw both quality and quantity at the others. Chasing upside is smart, of course, and Fahey also loaded up mightily on young, undervalued wideouts. But he needed a stabilizing presence there, one who can be expected to produce consistently week-to-week, on the chances Fahey’s upside pursuits fail to pan out. Landing Decker this late was ideal – he’s likely to regress a bit with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but WR35 is just insulting to the man’s ability. This is a guy who’s been able to consistently create touchdowns when paired with the likes of Fitzpatrick, Tim Tebow, and Geno Smith.
Worst Pick
Matt Forte, 3.12, RB13. I get the positional scarcity at running back, and I’ll never knock a drafter for chasing a high-reception guy. But Forte just doesn’t have my interest, especially as the RB13, with Dion Lewis and Eddie Lacy still on the board. Forte is old, with tons of tread on the tires and as poor of a red zone outlook as always. He may not even be the best receiving back on the Jets at this point.
Evaluation
While WR-heavy drafting is the new hotness, there’s plenty to be said for aiming to lock down 3-4 of 2016’s top backs. And since mid-round and sleeper RBs pan out so rarely, the only real way to do that is with early-round focus, and Fahey did a fantastic job extracting RB value. Anchored by two workhorses from atop the draft and filled out with pass catchers from the middle rounds, this RB corps is among the league’s best. And while his WR crew is composed mostly of mostly dice rolls, I’m on board with the gambles he chose to take there, including three promising rookies.
Full Draft
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com